Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Carly Fiorina's No-Fly Zone Proposal Now Viewed as Impossible; Good News, Bad News Posted: 04 Oct 2015 07:43 PM PDT Carly Fiorina's No-Fly Zone Proposal Dead? The Financial Times reports Moscow Scuppers US Coalition Plans for No-Fly Zone in Syria Russia's bombing of anti-regime rebels in Syria has been described as a disaster for the US-led coalition's efforts to destroy Isis, the Islamist militant group, but the Kremlin's real challenge to Washington is in the skies above the war-torn country. Alongside a modest Latakia-based contingent of two dozen Su-24 Fencer and Su-25 Frogfoot jets — planes designed to strike land targets — Moscow has deployed assets which render the prospect of no-fly zones enforced by the US or its allies over Syria impossible to enact. "The ultimate reason all this is happening is because of the renewed focus on Syria and the need for some sort of political solution there — something which we thought we could achieve by enforcing no-fly zones, safe zones," said one senior European diplomat. But any hopes of military co-ordination with Russia to achieve this, even in the wake of its disruptive deployment, are swiftly being dashed. Deployment of S-300s — or other similarly sophisticated systems, also known as triple-digit Sams — has long been one of the Pentagon's biggest fears in the Middle East. The S-300 system, which has an operating range of 150km, is capable of striking down all but the most sophisticated stealth aircraft. It means most missions flown by Washington's coalition allies — Jordan, for example, uses F-16 jets — are now highly vulnerable. Even the UK's deployment of Tornados and Typhoons at the Royal Air Force's base at Akrotiri, Cyprus, is threatened by the missiles. "The Russian forces now in place make it very, very obvious that any kind of no-fly zone on the Libyan model imposed by the US and allies is now impossible, unless the coalition is actually willing to shoot down Russian aircraft," says Justin Bronk, research analyst at the Royal United Services Institute. "The Russians are not playing ball at deconfliction — they are just saying, 'keep out of our way'. The coalition's operations in Syria will be vastly more complex from a risk assessment point of view and from a mission-planning point of view." Idiotic Ideas The idea of a no-fly zone is not only illegal, it's idiotic. The no-fly zone was meant to protect Al Qaeda rebels and little more. The absurd irony of this setup is that Al Qaeda and ISIS both want to topple Syrian president Assad. The US would rather topple Assad than fight ISIS. If indeed the no-fly zone proposal is on the ash heap of failed ideas, we should all cheer because that is where it belongs. Nonetheless, Carly Fiorina says the US should enforce a no-fly zone in Syria, even if it means shooting down Russian aircraft. The notion we should shoot down Russian planes when they are fighting ISIS (albeit not how we like) is crazy. For more details, please see Trump vs. Fiorina vs. Obama on Isis; Fiorina and the "Law of Bad Ideas". Good News, Bad News The good news is Fiorina's idea of a no-fly zone appears to be on the ash heap of history where it belongs. The bad news is Corollary #5 and Corollary #6 to the Law of Bad Ideas both suggest someone will come up with an even sillier action plan. Corollary Five: No politically acceptable idea is so bad it cannot be made worse.  Corollary Six: Bad ideas lead to more bad ideas to fix problems caused by previous bad ideas.  Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Fraudulent Medicare, Medicaid, EITC, Tax Refunds, etc. Total $1 Trillion Since 2003 Posted: 04 Oct 2015 12:49 PM PDT A huge chunk of your tax dollars every year goes straight into the pockets of crooks. Nearly one in three earned income credits (EIC) is fraudulent. And the numbers keep getting bigger every year according to the Government Accountability Office. Please consider GAO: Feds Made Nearly $1 Trillion in Overpayments Since Fiscal 2003. Government waste took a significant turn for the worse in fiscal 2014, rising dramatically to $124.7 billion from $105.8 billion in fiscal 2013. Since fiscal 2003, "cumulative improper payment estimates have totaled almost $1 trillion," the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said in a new report. U.S. Comptroller General Gene Dodaro testified Thursday on the GAO's new findings (http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-16-92T) before the Senate Finance Committee. The GAO said three programs were most at fault: Medicare, Medicaid and the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC). The Earned Income Tax Credit program was the worst offender. The Internal Revenue Service estimated that the program erroneously handed out $17.7 billion worth of "improper" payments. That amounts to a whopping 27.2 percent of the total $65.2 billion in EITC refund checks that the IRS sent out in fiscal 2014.  Medicare was nearly as bad. The program, which covers about 54 million elderly and disabled beneficiaries, incorrectly doled out $59.9 billion in fiscal 2014, which is about a tenth of its $603 billion budget. So, one out of every $10 that Medicare spent last year was erroneous, the GAO found.  Medicaid made $17.5 billion in mistaken payments out of its $304 billion budget, for a nearly 6 percent error rate. Besides the EITC program, the federal programs with the highest reported error rates for fiscal 2014 included the School Breakfast program (25.6 percent) and the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act Programs (23.1 percent). GAO Report The GAO Report is called Addressing Improper Payments and the Tax Gap Would Improve the Government's Fiscal Position Inquiring minds may wish to take a look. Correct Term is Fraud Writer Elizabeth MacDonald labeled this as "Overpayments" or "Waste".  The GAO labels this as "improper payments". Let's be more accurate, it's theft of taxpayer money via fraud. Moreover the GAO numbers are dramatically understated. Disability fraud, not part of  the GAO report, is rampant. States' Incentive to Promote Disability Fraud: States Have an Incentive to Promote (Not Stop) Disability Fraud; So How Much Fraud Is There? 14 Million on Disability: Unwilling to Work; 25% in Hale County AL Collect Disability, 14 Million Nationwide; A Simple Solution Why Work?: Why Work for $7.25 When Welfare Pays $15.00 in 12 States and $8.00 in 33 States? Is a Low Minimum Wage the Problem? Puerto Rico Fraud: Puerto Ricans Get U.S. Disability Benefits for Inability to Speak English; Disability Deal Explained Police and Fire Fraud: 102 Police and Firefighters Caught in Disability Scam Claims Hit Record: Disability Fraud Holds Down Unemployment Rate; Jobless Disability Claims Hit Record $200B in January Clinton Ends Welfare "As We Know It" Want to understand the huge spread in disability fraud? Look no further than Bill Clinton as explained in detail in link #1. This all goes back to 1996 when president Clinton promised to "end welfare as we know it". Clinton did indeed do just that, and fraud is the result. Why? The federal government pays disability, but states pay part of welfare costs. This creates a huge incentive for states to actively promote disability fraud (simply to get people off state-sponsored welfare programs). And that they have done. A primary example pertains to Hale County (see link #2). 25% of the people in Hale County Alabama collect disability. They are all tied to Hale county's Dr. Timberlake. Dr. Timberlake asks a simple question to all his patients. "What grade did you finish?" If you claim "back pain" and do not have a degree, Timberlake believes you are disabled. The GAO says "Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance" claims are only 0.4% improper. Taking the above into consideration I would be shocked if the real percentage is under 33%. Indeed, 67% fraud is probably more like it. And if so, what's the real dollar total? Mike "Mish" Shedlock Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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