Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- NSA Spied on Israeli Prime Minister During US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations
- A "Mish Together" January 5, 2016
- Pending Home Sales Decline 0.9%, Well Below Lowest Estimate; About that "Know Before You Owe" Theory
- Drastic Action
| NSA Spied on Israeli Prime Minister During US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations Posted: 30 Dec 2015 01:28 PM PST In an unexpected confirmation of what every thinking person realized upfront, the Guardian reports US 'spied on Binyamin Netanyahu during Iran nuclear deal talks' Despite Barack Obama's promise to curtail eavesdropping on allies in the wake of the Edward Snowden revelations about the scale and scope of US activities, the National Security Agency's (NSA) surveillance included phone conversations between top Israeli officials, US congressmen and American-Jewish groups, according to the Wall Street Journal.Security Threats Who constitutes a validated national security threat? The answer is anyone and everyone still breathing. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| A "Mish Together" January 5, 2016 Posted: 30 Dec 2015 12:22 PM PST Chris Temple, a friend of mine, and author of the National Investor newsletter is passing my way (Crystal Lake, Illinois) on his annual snowbird trip from Wisconsin to Florida. I know Chris as a fellow panelist at several Chicago Area Natural Resources conferences. I invited him over for dinner, but after some discussion, we elected to open the invite to anyone who is in the area and wants to come for dinner, or just drinks and appetizers for those who prefer something light. Date: Tuesday, January 5, 2016 Time: 7:00 PM City: Crystal Lake, Illinois Place: Village Squire Restaurant - 4818 Northwest Highway - Crystal Lake, Illinois For those who want to come a bit earlier, Chris and I will be at the bar at 6:30 PM. There are several Village Squire locations. Pick the one in Crystal Lake. Here's a Google Map. If you can make it, please: Send an Email Confirmation. After dinner, there is a nearby karaoke bar for those who want to sing or have further discussion over drinks. It should be a fun evening. You can ask questions about anything that is on your mind. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Pending Home Sales Decline 0.9%, Well Below Lowest Estimate; About that "Know Before You Owe" Theory Posted: 30 Dec 2015 11:06 AM PST Today the NAR released the Pending Home Sales Index, a measure of expected sales on existing homes. The Econoday Consensus Estimate was for a 0.5% rise in a range of 0.0 to 2.4%. No economist got the sign correct. The index unexpectedly declined 0.9% month-over-month, well below even the lowest economist's estimate. Pending home sales in November declined for the third time in four months as buyers continue to battle both rising home prices and limited homes available for sale. The pending home sales index was down 0.9 percent but up 2.7 percent from a year ago. Modest gains in the Midwest and South were offset by larger declines in the Northeast and West.About that "Know Before You Owe" Theory Ahead of the release, Bloomberg parroted the NAR line that disclosure rules affected November existing home sales. I wrote about the rule changes on December 22, in Existing Home Sales Plunge 10.5%, NAR Blames "Know Before You Owe"; What's the Excuse for Last Month? The rule change, dubbed "Know Before You Owe", was a simplification of disclosure rules. It became effective on October 3. I failed to see how a decline in November was related to simplification of rules that actually took effect the previous month. Bear in mind, that the NAR called a dip in October "disturbing" but in November placed the entire blame on the "Know Before You Owe" rules. If the rule change theory was correct, delays in November would have pushed into expected closings in December. The Econoday economist guessing a rise of 2.4% probably believed that theory. Instead, we see a plunge. Of course the index itself could be wrong, so we have to wait for the actual December numbers. But as it sits, the most likely thing is blaming "Know Before You Owe" was simply a bad call. Today, the NAR blames "home prices that rose too sharply in several markets". I find that a much better theory, especially if we replace the word "several" with the word "most". What about the NAR's perpetual "never a better time to buy" thesis? Is the NAR willing to toss that theory on the ash heap of history? Don't hold your breath. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
| Posted: 30 Dec 2015 12:28 AM PST In Misguided Plans to Fix the Fed Part 1: Bernie Sanders I proposed abolishing the Fed. That's something I have stated many times over the past decade. Nonetheless, reader Harold wonders is that action would be a bit drastic. Harold writes ... Hello Mish:Hello Harold. No I don't believe my solution to end the Fed is drastic. Look at things this way: How can anyone determine the precise amount of steel, of oranges, of oil that the economy should produce? If you do not think that is possible, then please tell me how a set of jackasses (or geniuses if you prefer) can possibly know where interest rates or the money supply should be? In practice, the Fed has never once spotted a bubble or bust in advance. Nor does the Fed have any foresight in predicting economic growth. The Fed is perpetually overoptimistic as are economists in general. Setting the price of orange juice would be far simpler than setting interest rates. The Fed may have an alleged "function" but the result has been boom-bust cycles of increasing amplitude over time. Mike "Mish" Shedlock |
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