marți, 19 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Bernanke: Don't Worry, China's $28 Trillion Debt is an "Internal Problem"

Posted: 19 Jan 2016 10:32 PM PST

$28 Trillion "Internal Problem"

The blue ribbon award for ridiculous comment of the day goes to Ben Bernanke who dismissed China's $28 trillion debt pile as an "internal problem" only.

This revelation came from the Asian Financial Forum held in Hong Kong where Bernanke Downplayed China Impact on World Economy.
"I don't think China's economic slowdown is that severe to threaten the global economy," said Bernanke at the Asian Financial Forum held in Hong Kong.

Bernanke argued that the global economy was more troubled by a global savings glut, which had long been a drag on investments.

Bernanke also said the $28 trillion debt pile facing China was an "internal" problem, given the majority of the borrowings was issued in local currency. According to consultancy McKinsey & Co., government, corporate, and household debt in China had already hit 282% of the country's gross domestic product as of mid-2014.

Bernanke said the correlation between different markets is higher than that between markets and the economy. He pointed out that worldwide market selloffs in times of distress was natural due to global asset allocations. "The U.S. and China are not as closely tied as the market thinks," Bernanke said.

Contrary to Bernanke's views on the global impact of a Chinese slowdown, the IMF said in its latest World Economic Outlook Update released on Tuesday that "a sharper-than expected slowdown in China" was a significant risk that would bring "international spillovers through trade, commodity prices, and waning confidence."
Savings Glut Question

Actually, I have to ask: Which is more ridiculous: Dismissing $28 trillion debt as an "internal problem" or proposing $28 trillion debt is indicative of a "savings glut"?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Mexico Central Bank Warns of "Potentially Severe Shock" Caused by Credit Crunch, Seeks Emerging Market "Buyer of Last Resort"

Posted: 19 Jan 2016 01:09 PM PST

Fears of Emerging Market Credit Crunch 

The growing likelihood of an emerging market crunch is on the mind of Agustín Carstens, head of Mexico's central bank.

Carstens now warns of a "Potentially Severe Shock".
Central banks in emerging markets could follow counterparts in the developed world and become "market makers of last resort", using unconventional monetary policies to try and stimulate their flatlining economies, according to Mexico's central bank chief.

"Emerging markets need to be ready for a potentially severe shock," Mr Carstens told the Financial Times. "The adjustment could be violent and policymakers need to be ready for it."

Policymakers and economists have warned that heavy selling of EM stocks and bonds by international investors since the middle of last year threatens to provoke a credit crunch that would make it hard for EM companies to service their debts.

Many EM companies have filled up on cheap credit over the past decade, after a commodities boom and ultra-loose monetary policies led by the US Federal Reserve resulted in very low borrowing costs. As investors pull out, those costs are set to soar.

Mr Carstens said the required policy response from EM central bankers would stop short of outright "quantitative easing" or QE — the large-scale buying of financial assets undertaken by the Fed and other developed market central banks.

But it would include exchanging high risk, long-dated assets held by investors for less risky, shorter-dated central bank and government liabilities.

Operation Twist

In essence, Carstens is discussing something like "Operation Twist" in which the Fed sold short-term Treasury notes and bought long-term Treasury bonds. Supposedly, the move pressured the long-term bond yields downward.

The Fed conducted an "Operation Twist" in the 60's and again in 2011. A recent federal reserve bank study shows the move many have lowered long-term rates by a mere fifteen basis points (0.15 percentage points).

How that would help emerging markets is a mystery. And if the assets in question are not government securities, the central banks could conceivably be left holding bags that are worthless.

Intervention Causes Problems

By attempting to smooth over every recession, every bank failure, and every market hiccup, central banks have created a global economic mess.

The global economy does not need a buyer of last resort other than the free market. If prices get cheap enough, someone will buy.

China's ill-advised stock market intervention recently blew up in China's face. Switzerland's seriously misguided peg to the Euro unleashed massive volatility wiping out every foreigner foolish enough to take out loans in Swiss Francs, expecting the peg to hold.

The Fed itself has created three bubbles of increasing amplitude: Dotcom bubble, the housing bubble, and the current equity and junk bond bubbles.

Suppression of volatility does nothing but create a series of unstable pressure cookers. The lids eventually blow off the top.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Sudden Belief in Abenomics; Bets on Yen Hit Three-Year High; Yen a "Safe Haven"?

Posted: 19 Jan 2016 11:01 AM PST

Sudden Belief in Abenomics

Traders are increasingly betting that Japanese prime minister Shinzō Abe will not follow through on his plans to do whatever it takes to defeat deflation in Japan (or that he has already done enough and won't do any more).

Bets on Yen Hit Three-Year High

Currency futures show Bets on Yen Strength Climb to Three-Year High.

Bets the yen will strengthen climbed to the highest level in three years as concern global growth is slowing spurred demand for the relative safety of Japan's currency.

Hedge funds and other large speculators boosted net long positions on the yen to 25,266 contracts in the week through Jan. 12, the most since October 2012, based on futures. Japan's currency rose to the strongest since August versus the dollar last week as a slump in stocks around the world and signs China's economy is losing momentum pushed back expectations for the Federal Reserve's next interest-rate increase.

"I can't see the exit from this tendency toward risk aversion," Toshiya Yamauchi, a senior analyst in Tokyo at Ueda Harlow Ltd., a margin-trading services provider, wrote in a note to clients. "The drop in stocks and yen currency crosses will continue to weigh on dollar-yen."
US Dollar / Yen Monthly



Switch in Sentiment

At the start of 2012 the Yen traded at 76.23 to the dollar. It's now at 117.48 to the dollar. That's a decline of 35%.

In May, the Yen hit a low of 125.86 to the dollar. Since then, sentiment on the Yen switched wildly as shown by currency bets.

Here's why.

Japanese GDP Revised to Growth

On December 8, the Financial Times reported Japan GDP Revised From Recession to Growth in Q3.
Growth for the third quarter was revised on Tuesday from an annualised fall of 0.8 per cent to an annualised rise of 1 per cent, erasing the technical "recession" declared just three weeks ago.

Investment was the main force behind the revisions: it was amended from a quarter on quarter fall of 1.3 per cent to a rise of 0.6 per cent. Instead of subtracting 0.7 percentage points from annualised growth, therefore, it added 0.3 percentage points.

"As a result of annual revision to the past data, the entire trajectory of inventory investment since 2013 was revised up significantly," said Ryutaro Kono at BNP Paribas in Tokyo. "This is not great news for growth in coming quarters."
Yen a "Safe Haven"?

Is the Yen now a safe haven?

Apparently traders think so. I don't. Japan will not decouple from the global economy.

And on the next downturn in Japan, Abe is likely to try anything. In the meantime, as long as Abe does not see need for further stimulus, the Yen may have further to run.

With all the currency traders suddenly believing in Abenomics, a swing back to the other side could produce significant currency moves the other way.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Italian Banks Hammered; Bad Loans Hit €201 Billion; End of Draghi PUT; Get Out Now!

Posted: 19 Jan 2016 01:09 AM PST

Italian Banks Hammered

Things don't matter until they do. For whatever reason, things in Europe are starting to matter. For example, Bloomberg reports Italian Banks Lead European Decliners on Bad-Loan Concerns.
Italian banks dropped in Milan, leading declines in the European Stoxx 600 Banks Index, reflecting investor concerns about lenders' levels of bad debt as the European Central Bank seeks to toughen scrutiny of the region's non-performing loans.

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, bailed out twice since 2009, slumped 15 percent to 76.6 cents in Milan, a fresh record low. Unione di Banche Italiane SpA fell 7.3 percent, while Banco Popolare SC declined 6.7 percent. Europe's 46-member Stoxx 600 Banks Index decreased 1.9 percent to the lowest since November 2012, bringing losses this year to 15 percent.

Italian banks' bad loans reached a record high of 201 billion euros ($219 billion) in November, with record-low interest rates and a struggling economy squeezing profit margins. The ECB's Single Supervisory Mechanism is seeking additional information about lenders' non-performing loans in order to tackle bad debt across the region, a spokesman said, confirming a Sunday report by Reuters.

"A task force on non-performing loans is reviewing the situation of institutions with high levels of NPLs and will propose follow-up actions," the central bank said.

In Italy, the government has been struggling to win approval for a bad bank to help speed up disposals of soured loans. Tensions between the country and the European Commission mounted earlier this month when Juncker publicly questioned Renzi's criticism over an alleged lack of flexibility.

Italian market regulator Consob imposed a ban on short selling of Monte dei Paschi's stock for the remainder of Monday's session through Jan. 19, in an attempt to stabilize shares of the world's oldest bank, which have dropped about 34 percent this year.

Subordinated and senior bonds in troubled banks including Monte dei Paschi, Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca have slumped to record lows this month. Monte Paschi's 379 million euros of 5.6 percent junior notes fell more than 10 cents to 71.7 cents on Monday, surpassing the previous record low of November 2011.
Not Enough Money to Make a Bad Bank

Via translation from El Economista here are a few snips on Italian bank woes.
Construction of a bad bank has been a constant headache for the Italian authorities. Minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, acknowledged that the government's intention is to create a bad bank for toxic assets, but coffers of the country do not have enough money to engender this entity.

Giuseppe Castagna, CEO of Banca Popolare di Milano, acknowledged in June that "there is not enough money to make a bad bank in Italy."

Now, the choice is private investors, something that seems unlikely considering that the carrying amount granted by the Italian authorities to these dubious assets is too high.
End of the Draghi PUT?

Bloomberg reports European Bank Stocks Rewind to 2012 as Draghi Rally Wanes.
The bank-stock rally sparked in 2012 by Mario Draghi's pledge to save the euro is fizzling.



Lenders in the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index have erased about a third of their value since reaching a four-year high in July, falling to their lowest levels since November 2012. The European Central Bank president's vow that year to do whatever it takes to avert a breakup of the region stoked investor optimism and helped bank shares almost double in the three years that followed.
Get Out Now!

I repeat my call for depositors in Italian banks, just as I did numerous times before Greece restricted bank withdrawals: "Get out now!"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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