miercuri, 27 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Chicago Board of Education Yanks $875 Million Bond Sale Over 7.75% Yield; Five Questions for Chicago

Posted: 27 Jan 2016 06:45 PM PST

On Wednesday, the Chicago Board of education pulled the plug on a proposed $875 Million Bond Sale.
Facing hefty yields, the financially ailing Chicago Public Schools (CPS) postponed Wednesday's planned $875 million bond sale and will evaluate the timing on a day-to-day basis, a school official said.

The nation's third-largest public school system is struggling with a structural budget deficit of at least $1 billion. Its fiscal woes led Illinois Governor Bruce Rauner and Republican lawmakers last week to push for a state takeover and potential bankruptcy for CPS - moves that were quickly shot down by Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, who controls the school system, and leaders of the Democratic-controlled legislature.

A pre-pricing marketing scale circulated by underwriters on Tuesday for the "junk"-rated general obligation bonds showed yields topping out at 7.75 percent with coupons of 7.25 percent for bonds due in 2041 and 7 percent for bonds due in 2044. That yield indicated a so-called credit spread over Municipal Market Data's benchmark triple-A yield scale of as much as 506 basis points.

That spread was wider than the 464 basis-point spread the school system's 19-year bonds were fetching in secondary market trading last week.
Five Questions for Chicago

  1. Will the yields be any lower tomorrow? Next week? Why?
  2. How the heck is the school district going to close a hole of at least $1 billion?
  3. Will Emanuel push for yet another massive tax hike just to pay teacher pensions?
  4. How can another tax hike do anything but postpone the problem?
  5. Since the most likely outcome is bankruptcy, why was the yield offering so good?

Reflections on Bankruptcy

In regards to question number five, 7.75% seems very attractive given the high likelihood those bonds will soon be worthless.

Heck, even 10% would be a bargain for the city and a horrid deal for the bondholders.

But that's not the way markets work. No one thinks bankruptcy is coming until it's a few weeks away. And of course, for bankruptcy to be possible, the Illinois legislature has to approve it.

Governor Bruce Rauner needs to hold firm until Emanuel begs the union-controlled Illinois legislature to pass a municipal bankruptcy bill.

"I'll Be a Better Mayor"

In his mayoral victory speech, Emanuel promised "I'll Be a Better Mayor".

Stepping back, recall that Emanuel defeated Cook County Commissioner Jesus "Chuy" Garcia in a runoff on April 7, 2015.

In debates ahead of the runoff, Emanuel said Garcia's promises would require tax hikes to fund them. Emanuel called tax hikes failed "politics of the past."

Emanuel forgot to say he would undertake the same failed measures as Garcia, only much bigger.

Six months later, Emanuel passed the largest property tax hike in Chicago history. And in the understatement of the year, Emanuel commented "It's Not a Piece of Art".

With that I have one final question for the mayor.

Bonus Question

Hello Rahm, when will you put city taxpayers and the good of the city itself ahead of the unions and your perpetual reelection campaign that's currently nothing but lies and deceit followed by monstrous tax hikes?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Oil Inventory Hits "Levels Not Seen in 80 Years"; Crude Jumps on News Russia May Cooperate with OPEC

Posted: 27 Jan 2016 12:49 PM PST

"Levels Not Seen in 80 Years"

The supply glut in oil storage continues as crude. Inventories hit new all-time highs this past week.



The above charts from EIA Weekly Supply Data shows the crude inventory of 494,920,000 (not counting strategic reserves) passed the previous high of 490,912,000 set on April 24, 2015.

Reserves, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), reached 1,190,038 barrels, also a record high.

Comments From EIA Weekly Report

Here are some interesting comments from the Weekly EIA Report.

"At 494.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels last week, and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels last week but are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 6.2 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week."

Crude Jumps on News Russia May Cooperate with OPEC

Despite the record inventory surge, crude jumped a bit from extremely oversold levels on news Russia Dangles Prospect of OPEC Cooperation.
Oil futures surged on Wednesday, after Russia said it was discussing the possibility of co-operation with OPEC, fanning hopes that a deal was in the works to reduce oversupply that sent prices the lowest levels in a dozen years last week.

Russia's energy ministry said possible coordination with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was discussed at a meeting with Russian oil companies on Wednesday.

"I remain skeptical, at the end of the day, about that happening as the oil producers are looking at the other guy to cut production while maintaining their own levels," Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates said.

Crude was looking firm before the Russia news on the back of a U.S. Energy Department report showing a surprise spike in demand for refined products like heating oil last week, when a massive blizzard hit the U.S. Northeast.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said inventories of distillates, fell more than 4 million barrels, trumping expectations for a rise of about 2 million.
Economists Surprised Again

Despite the small drawdown in fuel oil please recall the report stated "Distillate fuel inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year."

Economists can be surprised by anything including the possibility blizzards and cold weather may increase the demand for fuel oil in the Northeast!

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

New Home Sales Surge but Prices Down Sharply; Prices Have Room to Fall; Is Everybody In?

Posted: 27 Jan 2016 10:17 AM PST

December new home sales surged well over the high end Econoday estimate.
The outlook for the housing sector just got a boost from a sharp jump in new home sales, up 10.8 percent to a 544,000 annualized rate that is 44,000 over the Econoday consensus and 24,000 over the high estimate. The gain, however, may have been boosted by discounting as the median price slipped 2.7 percent to $288,900 for a year-on-year rate of minus 4.3 percent.

With builders slow to bring new homes to market, low supply remains a central factor holding back sales. Supply did rise 6,000 in the month to 237,000 but supply relative to sales fell back to 5.2 months from 5.6 months. A reading of 6.0 months is considered to be the balance point between supply and demand.

Regional data show a 32 percent sales surge in the Midwest where the year-on-year rate of 39 percent is the strongest. Sales in the West and Northeast both rose 21 percent in the month with the year-on-year rate in the West, which is a key region for new housing, up 22 percent while the Northeast, which is a very small region in this report, down 6.5 percent on the year. The South, which is the largest region, shows a fractional gain in the month and no change on the year.

For full year 2015, new home sales rose 14.7 percent to 501,000 from 437,000 in 2014. Sales of new homes have been noticeably higher than prices, suggesting that prices have room to accelerate. This report follows special strength in existing home sales with both perhaps benefiting from December's warm weather but with both pointing nevertheless to new momentum for 2016.
Negative Momentum

Why did sales surge 39% in the Midwest? Because this was one of the warmest December on record even discounting global warming silliness.

Bloomberg calls this "new momentum" for 2016. Indeed it is, but that momentum is negative.

This statement by Bloomberg caught my eye: "Sales of new homes have been noticeably higher than prices, suggesting that prices have room to accelerate."

Prices Have Room to Fall

I suggest home prices have room to fall. Curiously so does Bloomberg, albeit in different ways, and in a different article.

Please consider Bloomberg's article The Surge in U.S. Mansion Prices Is Now Over, published just two days ago.
The world's economic woes -- from China to Russia to South America -- are damping sales in the high-end real estate market. Haywire overseas stock markets and dropping currency values caused in part by plummeting oil prices are dulling demand for mansions, penthouses and winter escapes.

Luxury Pfft



Prices for the top 5 percent of U.S. real estate transactions remained flat in 2015 while all other houses gained 4.9 percent, according to data from Redfin Corp., a real estate brokerage and data provider.

Stronger Dollar

The stronger dollar is driving South American buyers away from the 23,000 condos in the pipeline for Miami's downtown area, said Peter Zalewski, owner of South Florida development tracker CraneSpotters.com. Buyers signed about one-fourth fewer pre-construction contracts last year than in 2014, according to Anthony M. Graziano, senior managing director at Integra Realty Resources Inc., which tracks condo data for the Miami Downtown Development Authority.

In nearby Sunny Isles, Florida, faraway currency fluctuations are endangering the sale of a $3.7 million condominium.

In Houston, the plunge in oil prices to a 12-year low is killing the luxury boom. Sales for homes priced at $500,000 or more dropped 17 percent in December from a year earlier, according to the Houston Association of Realtors.

Manhattan resale prices for the top 20 percent of the market peaked in February and have fallen every month since, according to an analysis through October by listings website StreetEasy.

Even in San Francisco, where the market for luxury properties remains strong, the inventory of listings for $2 million or more jumped in October to a record level, said Patrick Carlisle, chief market analyst for Paragon Real Estate.

"More sellers are jumping in and more buyers are holding off because they're worried about where the volatility is going," Carlisle said.

Buyers are now on the hunt for deals, said Nela Richardson, chief economist at Redfin.

"There's a limit even to what a wealthy person will spend," she said.
Is Everybody In?

Bloomberg did not make the necessary connection, but they did provide the chart. Let's tie up some loose ends.

In bonds, rot starts with junk and spreads to the core. With homes, price rot starts at the high end.

With Chinese West-coast buyers now not feeling so wealthy after a 47% plunge in the stock market, and with "Temporary" Capital Controls likely on the way, that segment of the high-end market is toast.

The strong dollar is having the same effect in Florida. And in New York, well ... "There's a limit even to what a wealthy person will spend."

And every decrease in the price at the high end, affects every level below it. A mansion that was $1,000,000 but is now $900,000 will affect the price of homes listed for $850,000 to $900,000, etc., all the way down the ladder.

Is Everybody In?

Let's return to the Econoday "room to accelerate" misanalysis.

If homebuilders could sell more expensive homes, they surely would. And at the very high end, it appears we have hit the peak. That group is "all in".



It was one hell of a bubble-reblowing effort by the Fed, but another slide lower awaits. New homes prices will likely get cheaper and cheaper with more and more features added.

In turn that will lower the price of similar existing homes. This stuff does cascade. We have seen it before.

Lack of Supply

There's plenty of talk about lack of supply. Actually, there's an ample supply of homes. There's just no supply at prices people are willing and able to pay.

Expect lower, not higher prices. And if you need to get out, beat the rush, if you still can.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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