Central Perk

duminică, 8 septembrie 2013

Posted: 08 Sep 2013 08:05 PM PDT

Here's a quartet of interesting tweets from House of Representative member Justin Amash Republican from Michigan.

Tweet #1: If Americans could read classified docs, they'd be even more against Syria action. Obama admn's public statements are misleading at best.

Tweet #2: Attended another classified briefing on Syria & reviewed add'l materials. Now more skeptical than ever. Can't believe Pres is pushing war.

Tweet #3: Asked Obama admn officials to correct admn's public statements that are inconsistent w/ info presented at briefings. Public must have facts.

Tweet #4: If you're voting yes on military action in Syria, might as well start cleaning out your office. Unprecedented level of public opposition.

Amash Amendment

Amash sponsored an amendment to limit data gathering by the NSA.

The Amash-Conyers amendment ends NSA's blanket collection of Americans' telephone records. It does this by requiring the FISA court under Sec. 215 to order the production of records that pertain only to a person under investigation.

The amendment has three important practical effects. First, it ends the mass surveillance of Americans. The government no longer is authorized under Sec. 215 to hold a pool of metadata on every phone call of every American. Second, the amendment permits the government to continue to acquire business records and other "tangible things" that are actually related to an authorized counterterrorism investigation. The government still has access to this tool under the amendment, but it's forced to comply with the intent of Congress when it passed Sec. 215. Third, the amendment imposes more robust judicial oversight of NSA's surveillance. The FISA court will be involved every time NSA searches Americans' records, and the court will have a substantive, statutory standard to apply to make sure the NSA does not violate Americans' civil liberties.

What steps would the government take to collect records if the Amash-Conyers amendment were enacted? The government would have to provide facts to the FISA court to show that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the records sought (1) are relevant to an appropriately authorized national security investigation and (2) pertain to the person (including any group or corporation) under investigation.

Unfortunately the Justin Amash Amendment To Stop NSA Data Collection Voted Down In House

The House of Representatives on Wednesday evening narrowly defeated an amendment from Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) meant to halt the National Security Agency's bulk collection of phone record data.

"We're here today for a very simple reason: to defend the Fourth Amendment, to defend the privacy of each and every American," Amash said as he introduced his measure. Lawmakers' votes, he said, would answer one simple question, "Do we oppose the suspicionless collection of every American's phone records?"

On Wednesday, at least, the answer was no. The House voted 217-205 to defeat the amendment after intense last-minute lobbying from the White House and the NSA.

Democrats voted for the amendment by a 111-to-83 margin. Republicans, meanwhile, split 134 to 93 against it.

Although Amash's amendment was defeated, civil liberties advocates found something to cheer in the closeness of the vote. Just two years ago, the House voted by a comfortable 250-153 margin to reauthorize the Patriot Act, which the administration uses to justify its phone metadata collection. On Wednesday, by contrast, a swing of just seven votes would have put Amash's amendment over the top.

Amash is a true republican constitutionalist-hero as opposed to fake-patriots who sided with President Obama, such as majority leader John Boehner and Nancy Pelosi.

In all 134 Republicans should be absolutely ashamed of themselves as noted in the Roll Call.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

US Economic Activity Poised to Soar?

Posted: 08 Sep 2013 02:21 PM PDT

Is economic activity in the US about head to the next level higher? If you think so, please consider a chart from my friend "BC": Weekly real year-over-year growth of bank lending per capita and real final sales per capita.

Growth in Bank Lending Per Capita (Black), Real Final Sales Per Capita (Blue)

My friend BC writes (and I concur) "It seems rather unlikely that private economic activity is poised to accelerate under these conditions."

But what about "public" activity such as a war with Syria?

If you are looking for another reason besides energy Obama wants a war with Syria, there you have it.

In regards to energy, please see ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Hate Your Commute Now? It's Going to Get Worse

Posted: 08 Sep 2013 11:07 AM PDT

Liz and I traveled this past Labor Day weekend. We drove from Crystal Lake, Illinois to a golf resort in Manistee, Michigan.

Traffic was bad in the Chicago area as expected, but exceptionally slow traffic continued all the way through Indiana, and even into Michigan, all along I-94 until we reached Michigan 31.

M-31 breaks off from I-94 roughly at St. Joseph. It was several hours of driving hell starting out, and continued late into the evening, near midnight.

I bring this up because I stumbled on a MarketWatch article Hate your commute now? Just wait 5 years

Here is slide number 5 of 13.

Indianapolis to Chicago, I-65

Labor Day traffic on Interstate 65 from Indianapolis to Chicago is 49% higher than average at its peak. Unless a major transportation project is undertaken in the next five years, commuters will experience this level of congestion on the average day by the year 2033.

I-65 intersects I-94 near Gary Indiana. I-80 and I-90 merge in close by. It is one hell of a congestion. My experience previously was things start getting better near the Indiana-Illinois border.

That didn't happen this Labor Day trip.

Obviously states are strapped for cash, but there were three or four sections of highway under repair in Indiana and a couple more in Michigan.

One of the problems is prevailing wage laws such as Davis-Bacon drive up .cost of repairs. Unions and prevailing wage laws massively drive up construction costs.

Even FDR was against the notion of public unions.

Davis-Bacon Background

I have discussed Davis-Bacon on many occasions. Inquiring minds interested in a background on the original purpose of the act should read My Thoughts on the Davis-Bacon Act.

"... while the sponsors and supporters of the Act also intended it to disadvantage immigrant workers of other races, these thinly veiled references make it clear that the Act was primarily intended to discriminate against blacks."

The Davis-Bacon Act as amended, requires that each contract over $2,000 to which the United States or the District of Columbia is a party for the construction, alteration, or repair of public buildings or public works shall contain a clause setting forth the minimum wages to be paid to various classes of laborers and mechanics employed under the contract. Under the provisions of the Act, contractors or their subcontractors are to pay workers employed directly upon the site of the work no less than the locally prevailing wages and fringe benefits paid on projects of a similar character. The Davis-Bacon Act directs the Secretary of Labor to determine such local prevailing wage rates.

There are 117 classifications of jobs for which some set of bureaucrats must determine "prevailing wages". Here is a partial list:

ASBE = International Association of Heat and Frost Insulators and Asbestos Workers
BOIL = International Brotherhood of Boiler Makers, Iron Shipbuilders, Blacksmiths, Forgers and Helpers
BRXX = International Union of Bricklayers, and Allied Craftsmen
(bricklayers, cement masons, stone masons, tile, marble and terrazzo workers)
CARP = United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America
ELEC = International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers
(electricians, communication systems installers, and other low voltage specialty workers)
ELEV = International Union of Elevator Constructors
ENGI = International Union of Operating Engineers
(operators of various types of power equipment)
IRON = International Association of Bridge, Structural and Ornamental Iron Workers
LABO = Laborers' International Union of North America
PAIN = International Brotherhood of Painters and Allied Trades
(painters, drywall finishers, glaziers, soft floor layers)
PLUM = Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association of the United States and Canada
PLAS = United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry of the United States and Canada
ROOF = United Union of Roofers, Waterproofers and Allied Workers
SHEE = Sheet Metal Workers International Association
TEAM = International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Even FDR Understood the Problem

Public unions get into bed with management and politicians and work out sweet deals for themselves at taxpayer expense. No one looks out for the taxpayer. Even FDR understood the problem.

Message From FDR

Inquiring minds are reading snips from a Letter from FDR Regarding Collective Bargaining of Public Unions written August 16, 1937.

All Government employees should realize that the process of collective bargaining, as usually understood, cannot be transplanted into the public service. It has its distinct and insurmountable limitations when applied to public personnel management.

The very nature and purposes of Government make it impossible for administrative officials to represent fully or to bind the employer in mutual discussions with Government employee organizations.

Particularly, I want to emphasize my conviction that militant tactics have no place in the functions of any organization of Government employees.

A strike of public employees manifests nothing less than an intent on their part to prevent or obstruct the operations of Government until their demands are satisfied. Such action, looking toward the paralysis of Government by those who have sworn to support it, is unthinkable and intolerable.

Time to Scrap Davis-Bacon, End Public Union Collective Bargaining

Before any project can be economically viable, labor costs must be addressed, and that is exactly why we need to scrap Davis-Bacon and all prevailing wage laws. We also need to eliminate collective bargaining of public unions.

Unless and until we do that, we will dramatically overpay for infrastructure projects and taxpayers will pay through the nose for them.

Government should strive to provide the most services at the least cost. Public unions strive to provide the fewest services at the most cost. Is it any wonder cities and states are broke?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Being found vs. being sought

Being found vs. being sought

There are proven strategies that generic products can use so that they're more likely to be stumbled upon by someone searching. Name your new book with all sorts of keywords in the title, for example, so it organically ranks higher for those very keywords...

The alternative is to create a product that earns a reputation sufficient that people choose to talk about it, choose to argue about it, choose to look for it. Not something like it, but it.

Nice to be found. Essential to be sought.

This was always a good idea, but in a post-search era of mobile and social, it's now the best idea.

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sâmbătă, 7 septembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

End of U.S. Imperium—Finally!? Obama About to Suffer Glorious Defeat in Congress?

Posted: 07 Sep 2013 01:12 PM PDT

The coalition of the willing is now down to the US alone as France now wants to wait for more data on alleged gas usage. Yet, President Obama rejects G20 pressure to abandon Syria air strike plan.

Obama Plans Full Court Press

Inquiring minds note that Obama plans a 'full-court press' to sway Congress and a speech to US citizens on September 10.

Obama's address to the nation from the White House on Tuesday will be part of a rejuvenated lobbying effort on Syria as Congress returns to Washington next week. A Democratic congressional aide said the administration is planning "a full-court press" aimed at undecided lawmakers.

According to a Washington Post count, only 23 senators have been willing to go on record in favor of military force, while 17 are against. It will likely take 60 of the Senate's 100 members to advance the measure to the House of Representatives.

In the House, where 218 votes will be required to pass the resolution, only 25 members are on record in support of military action so far, according to the Post, with 106 opposed.

Polls Show Citizens Solidly Against War

John Nichols writing for The Nation accurately sums up the situation in 'Nobody Wants This Except the Military-Industrial Complex'

House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, backs President Obama's request for authorization to intervene militarily in Syria, as does House Democratic Minority Nancy Pelosi, D-California.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, is similarly "in," while Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, in mum.

The president has done a pretty good job of selling his plan to congressional leaders.

He has not, however, sold it to the American people.

Thus, when members of Congress decide which side they're on in the Syrian intervention votes that are expected to take place next week, they will have to consider whether they want to respond to pro-war pressure from inside-the-Beltway—as so many did when they authorized action against Iraq—or to the anti-war sentiments of their constituents.

The United States says it has determined that the Syrian government has used chemical weapons in the civil war there," the Post/ABC poll asked. "Given this, do you support or oppose the United States launching missile strikes against the Syrian government?"

Sixty percent of registered voters (59 percent of all respondents) express opposition. Just 36 percent support intervention.

Self-identified Democrats are opposed 54-42—a 12 point gap.

Republicans are opposed 55-43—a similar 12 point gap.

Independents disapprove of intervention by a 66-30 margin. That figure suggests that members of Congress who represent swing districts might actually be more vulnerable if they vote to authorize the attack.

'Nobody Wants This Except the Military-Industrial Complex'

Nichols referred to a Huffington Post article quoting Congressman Alan Grayson, D-Florida, "nobody wants this except the military-industrial complex".

"One thing that is perfectly clear to me in my district, and I think is true in many other districts from speaking to other members, is that there is no desire, no desire on the part of people to be the world's policeman," Grayson said on SiriusXM's "The Agenda with Ari Rabin-Havt," which aired Thursday morning. "For us to pick up this gauntlet even on the basis of unequivocal evidence of chemical warfare by the Syrian army, deliberately against its own people -- even if there were unequivocal evidence of that -- that's just not what people in my district want."

That doesn't mean that opposition is universal, Grayson allowed. "I did notice, for what it's worth, that the manufacturer of the missiles that would be used has had an incredible run in their stock value in the last 60 days. Raytheon stock is up 20 percent in the past 60 days as the likelihood of the use of their missiles against Syria becomes more likely. So I understand that there is a certain element of our society that does benefit from this, but they're not the people who vote for me, or by the way the people who contribute to my campaign," he said. "Nobody wants this except the military-industrial complex."

Expected Votes on Authorizing Military Strike

The End of U.S. Imperium—Finally!

An article on The Daily Beast by David Stockman contains so much uncommon sense that it makes me want to stand up and salute!

Please consider The End of U.S. Imperium—Finally! by David Stockman.

Next week Congress can do far more than stop a feckless Tomahawk barrage on a small country that is already a graveyard of civil war and sectarian slaughter. By voting "no," it can trigger the end of the American Imperium—five decades of incessant meddling, bullying, and subversion around the globe that has added precious little to national security but left America fiscally exhausted and morally diminished.

Indeed, the tragedy of this vast string of misbegotten interventions—from the 1953 coup against Mohammad Mosaddegh in Iran through the recent bombing campaign in Libya—is that virtually none of them involved defending the homeland or any tangible, steely-eyed linkages to national security. They were all rooted in ideology—that is, anti-communism, anti-terrorism, humanitarianism, R2P-ism, nation building, American exceptionalism. These were the historic building blocks of a failed Pax Americana. Now the White House wants authorization for the last straw: namely, to deliver from the firing tubes of U.S. naval destroyers a dose of righteous "punishment" that has no plausible military or strategic purpose. By the president's own statements, the proposed attack is merely designed to censure the Syrian regime for allegedly visiting one particularly horrific form of violence on its own citizens.

Well, really? After having rained napalm, white phosphorous, bunker busters, drone missiles, and the most violent machinery of conventional warfare ever assembled upon millions of innocent Vietnamese, Cambodians, Serbs, Somalis, Iraqis, Afghans, Pakistanis, Yemeni, Libyans, and countless more, Washington now presupposes to be in the moral-sanctions business? That's downright farcical. Nevertheless, by declaring himself the world's spanker in chief, President Obama has unwittingly precipitated the mother of all clarifying moments.

The recurrent phony narratives that generate these war-drum campaigns and then rationalize their disastrous aftermaths are rooted in a common structural cause: a vastly bloated war machine and national spying apparatus, the Imperial Presidency, and the house-trained lap-dogs that occupy the congressional intelligence, foreign affairs, and defense committees. This triangle of deception keeps the American public bamboozled with superficial propaganda and the media supplied with short bursts of reality TV when the Tomahawks are periodically let fly.

But it is the backbone of the permanent warfare-state bureaucracy that keeps the gambit going. Presidents come and go, but it is now obvious that virtually any ideological script—left or right—can be co-opted into service of the Imperium. The Obama White House's preposterous drive to intervene in the Syrian tinderbox with its inherent potential for fractures and blowback across the entire Middle East is being ramrodded by the dogma of "responsibility to protect." In that context, its chief protagonists—Susan Rice and Samantha Power—are the moral equivalent of Bush's neocon hit men, Douglas Feith and Paul Wolfowitz. In both cases, ideological agendas that have absolutely nothing to do with the safety of the American people were enabled to activate the awful violence of the American war machine mainly because it was there, marching in place waiting for an assignment.

Heart of the Hypocrisy

In case you missed it, Stockman nails the heart of US war-mongering hypocrisy with this question:

"After having rained napalm, white phosphorous, bunker busters, drone missiles, and the most violent machinery of conventional warfare ever assembled upon millions of innocent Vietnamese, Cambodians, Serbs, Somalis, Iraqis, Afghans, Pakistanis, Yemeni, Libyans, and countless more, Washington now presupposes to be in the moral-sanctions business?"

There is much more in the article. Please take a look.

David Stockman is also the author of The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America and the #1 New York Times bestseller The Triumph of Politics: Why the Reagan Revolution Failed.

Is this the "End of U.S. Imperium"? Finally?
We should all hope so.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Calling for Limited Military Action in Syria

Featured

Weekly Address: Calling for Limited Military Action in Syria

In his weekly address, President Obama makes the case for limited and targeted military action to hold the Assad regime accountable for its violation of international norms prohibiting the use of chemical weapons.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

Learn more about President Obama's response to Syria here.

Seth's Blog : The trust brand

The trust brand

Dave Ramsey was telling a small business person how he'd built his media empire. The guy interrupted, "well, sure, that's fine for you, because you have a trust brand."

A trust brand?

What other kinds of brands are there?

Perhaps your brand stands for cheap or convenient. Sure, you can win with that for a while, at least until someone gets a little cheaper or the internet gets a little closer. For the rest of us, though, there's only one option, isn't there?

When you have a choice in what to buy, you will first and foremost (and second and third in fact) base your choice on a simple question, "who do I trust to keep the promise that the marketers are making?"

The fact is, people will soon forget if they overpaid for something. They will probably never (ever!) forget if you violated their trust.

The fascinating thing: even though most everyone shakes their head in agreement on this topic, they get stuck answering the question, "how have you regularly overinvested and prioritized being the most trustworthy organization/individual in your industry?" Being just like the others and doing your job doesn't get you to this level.

It doesn't matter if you work for a search engine, run a plumbing service or organize a conference. If I've come to know you and trust you and then you turn your back on me, abandon me and make me feel like a fool for trusting you, I won't be back any time soon.

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vineri, 6 septembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

The Dick Cheney-Syria Oil Connection
Change of Heart: The Case for Sending Personnel to Syria; Totally-Go-It-Alone Ironies
"Grand Coalition" Led by Merkel, Not Going to Happen; Expect a Shocker in Germany Election
Establishment Survey: +169K Jobs, June and July Revised Lower; Household Survey: Employment -115,000, Not in Labor Force +516,000; BLS in Wonderland

The Dick Cheney-Syria Oil Connection

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 06:15 PM PDT

It appears there may be some energy sources in Syria that I was unaware of previously. They are in the Golan Heights area of Syria, now occupied by Israel. Dick Cheney is in the picture.

Please consider Cheney-Linked Company to Drill in Occupied Golan Heights.

The Israeli government awarded a local subsidiary of U.S.-based Genie Energy the rights to explore for oil and natural gas in about 150 square miles of the southern section of the Golan Heights.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said keeping Blue Helmets stationed in the area was essential to peace given the potential for conflict spilling out of the Syrian civil war. Genie Energy said there may be a significant amount of oil and natural gas in the license area. When Israel set its sights on offshore natural gas, Hezbollah warned that Israel shouldn't encroach on Lebanese territory. If recent concerns about Hezbollah's influence are any indication, the Shiite resistance movement may focus its guns onshore amid expanding Israeli energy interests. With former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney serving as an adviser to Genie, however, the implications may go beyond immediate worries over Hezbollah.

Genie Energy said there may be "significant quantities" of natural resources in the region. The license area encompasses about 150 square miles of the southern portion of the Golan Heights, considered territory occupied by the Israeli military.

"Genie Energy intends to conduct an exploration program to further investigate the size and quality of the resource in the new license area," the company explained in a statement.

Dick Cheney is serving as an adviser to Genie as it plans work in an area encompassing about 30 percent of the Golan Heights.

Also consider Separating Politics and War From Oil and the Economy

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Change of Heart: The Case for Sending Personnel to Syria; Totally-Go-It-Alone Ironies

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 11:49 AM PDT

I have had a change of heart. The US should send personnel to Syria. Notice I said "personnel", not combat troops or military equipment.

I had this change of heart after reading The Onion article Poll: Majority Of Americans Approve Of Sending Congress To Syria.

As President Obama continues to push for a plan of limited military intervention in Syria, a new poll of Americans has found that though the nation remains wary over the prospect of becoming involved in another Middle Eastern war, the vast majority of U.S. citizens strongly approve of sending Congress to Syria.

The New York Times/CBS News poll showed that though just 1 in 4 Americans believe that the United States has a responsibility to intervene in the Syrian conflict, more than 90 percent of the public is convinced that putting all 535 representatives of the United States Congress on the ground in Syria—including Senate pro tempore Patrick Leahy, House Speaker John Boehner, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, and, in fact, all current members of the House and Senate—is the best course of action at this time.

"I believe it is in the best interest of the United States, and the global community as a whole, to move forward with the deployment of all U.S. congressional leaders to Syria immediately," respondent Carol Abare, 50, said in the nationwide telephone survey, echoing the thoughts of an estimated 9 in 10 Americans who said they "strongly support" any plan of action that involves putting the U.S. House and Senate on the ground in the war-torn Middle Eastern state. "With violence intensifying every day, now is absolutely the right moment—the perfect moment, really—for the United States to send our legislators to the region."

"In fact, my preference would have been for Congress to be deployed months ago," she added.

France Drops Out of the Coalition of the Willing

The coalition of the willing is now down to one. French President Francois Hollande said after a G-20 meeting France to wait for U.N. inspectors' report on Syria.

Obama can stick with his "world must act" message, but the world is increasingly fed up with Obama's rush to war message.

Totally-Go-It-Alone Ironies

ABC's Rick Klein noted historical ironies in Obama Faces Go-It (Almost)-Alone Decision On Syria.

President Obama will be alone should he choose to act militarily against Syria, for nearly all intents and purposes. He won't have the public behind him; nearly 8 in 10 Americans say they won't support military action without congressional approval. The vote in Parliament yesterday means he won't even have Great Britain. The historical ironies run deep. "Just words," it turns out, matter. And a man who would not be president except for his harsh critique of "dumb wars" and go-it-alone foreign policies is poised to engage in new military action virtually alone.

Note: The above was written on August 30, before France dropped out. Almost-Go-It-Alone has become Totally-Go-It-Alone.

Is Obama's Peace Price Losing Its Luster?

ABC's Abby Phillip notes: "Perhaps the most profound issue surrounding my receipt of this prize is the fact that I am the commander-in-chief of the military of a nation in the midst of two wars," Obama said in his acceptance speech. On the bring [brink] of a military strike on Syria, Obama is also dogged by the irony that his allure to liberals in the Democratic primary when he ran for president in 2008 stemmed largely from his opposition to the Iraq war. Obama never gave his peace prize back but some of his critics say Obama probably should. "There's a growing sense that the Nobel Peace Prize has been tarnished by the award to Obama," said Norman Solomon, whose website RootAction.org launched a petition earlier this year for Obama to give back the award.

Syrian Woman Rips Into McCain At Town Hall For His Support For Bombing Syria

Link if video does not play: Syrian Woman Rips Into McCain

The case regarding so-called "collateral damage" is extremely pertinent. Neither McCain nor Obama cares how many lives they destroy to get the regime change they want (then when they get the regime change they will not be happy with the result).

Let Obama Make the Case (To the Syrian People, Not US Congress)

In addition to Congress, I propose we send Nobel Peace Prize winner President Obama to Syria to plead his case for war to the Syrian people.

President Obama and Senator McCain should go first.

In the meantime, please Sign the Petition to Revoke Obama's Nobel Peace Prize

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

"Grand Coalition" Led by Merkel, Not Going to Happen; Expect a Shocker in Germany Election

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 10:42 AM PDT

I am going to stick my neck out with a pair of predictions:

Forget about a "Grand Coalition" led by Merkel. It's not going to happen.
The AfD anti-euro party will be in the next German parliament.

AfD had been polling around 2.5%. However, in the wake of Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) stating a need for more aid for Greece, one pollster has AfD at 4%.

Reader Bernd from Germany (not AfD party leader Bernd Lucke) says the 4% figure is significant. If a party shows four percent in polls, potential voters are drawn in because they no longer fear their vote will be "lost", due to the 5% threshold.

The election is on September 22. Yet 30 percent of voters are still undecided.

Coalition Possibilities

"Same" CDU/CSU + FDP
"Grand Coalition" CDU + SPD led by Merkel
"Grand Coalition" CDU + SPD led by someone else
"Red Green Coalition" SPD + Grüne (Greens) + DieLinke
"CDU/CSU+AfD Coalition"

IF FDP can reach 5% of the vote, it is possible the same yellow-black coalition (CDU/CSU+FDP) rules as today. If FDP fails to reach 5%, then several alternate scenarios come into play:

There has been no talk at all of possibility number five above. Yet, if AfD can gather 6-7% (a number I think is possible), then there could be a coalition that includes AfD.

None of the "Grand Coalitions" seem stable.

Reader Bernd Comments

FDP does not make (or barely makes) the 5% margin in two polls

AfD is at 4% in at least one poll

35% of voters are undecided, so much movement to come

Recent momentum has been away from CDU

In the "undecided" voter column, Steinbrück leads 44% over Merkel 38%.

A big problem for CDU and Merkel is to get their supporters to vote. CDU and Merkel followers are deeply convinced that Merkel has such a massive lead, that there is no cause for fear.

The State elections in Bavaria are held one week before federal elections. In Bavaria, Steinbrück's SPD will be trounced. Less than 20% of popular votes are a real possibility and might put a serious damper on the mood for the SPD in the last week of federal campaigning.

Die Linke is stable. However, many "Die Linke" voters are probably hidden in the undecided block. I would give them more than 9%

After reading, analyzing and comparing statistics, figures and the whole nine yards, my latest prediction is as follows:

CDU/CSU: 37%

SPD: 24%

Grüne: 11%

Die Linke: 10%

AfD: 06%

FDP: 05%

Total: 94%

Lost votes due to 5% threshold: 6%

I have the most serious difficulty to assess FDP. It is really possible, they might not make it into Parliament. Reason: most Germans highly prefer a coalition between CDU/CSU and SPD over the current one of CDU/CSU and FDP.

Such being the case, strategic voters might support CDU directly, rather than giving their votes to FDP (remember, Germans have two votes, so "strategic splitting" is common).

The real dark horse is the AfD.

AfD is perceived to be positioned firmly in the center-right of the German political spectrum.

In reality, this is not so. AfD is more libertarian than right. But who would know the difference in a country, where being called a NAZI has become an every day affair of political opponent bashing.

If FDP and AfD make it into Parliament, a coalition between CDU/CSU/AfD/FDP might be an option for a stable Government. In reality, their positions are a lot closer together, than most people think or perceive.

Mr. Steinbrück will not be part of a "grand coalition".

Clearly, and there can not be any doubt: German voters want a grand coalition, with Mm Merkel as Chancellor and Steinbrück as second in command. Yet, Steinbrück has repeatedly said, again and again, he can only be the "King of Schnitzel" or he will resign as a politician after the campaign. I tend to believe him!

SPD party leader, Mr. Gabriel, may enter a Grand Coalition, but such an arrangement may not be very stable. If SPD goes for such a coalition, it will be the final demise of that party.

Best wishes
Bernd

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Establishment Survey: +169K Jobs, June and July Revised Lower; Household Survey: Employment -115,000, Not in Labor Force +516,000; BLS in Wonderland

Posted: 06 Sep 2013 08:31 AM PDT

Initial Reaction

The establishment survey showed a gain of 169,000 jobs.

For the second consecutive month, the previous two months were revised lower. The employment change for July was revised down by 58,000 (from +162,000 to +104,000). Last month the BLS revised June employment down by 7,000 (from +195,000 to +188,000).

This month, the BLS said June was still not correct and revised June lower by another 16,000 to +172,000.

See the change in pattern here? Earlier in the year, revisions were to the plus side.

In spite of the above, the unemployment rate dropped 0.1 to 7.3%. After all, it's the household survey that determines the unemployment rate, not the establishment survey baseline jobs number. So let's take a look at the factors.

Explaining the Unemployment Rate Drop

Employment fell by 115,000
Those in the labor force fell by 312,000
The civilian population rose by 203,000.
The Participation Rate (The labor force as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population) fell 0.2 to 63.2%, beating the low of 63.3% dating back to 1979.

Employment fell by 115,000 but the labor force fell more (in spite of a population rise of 203,000). That's why the unemployment rate dropped.

August BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Payrolls +169,000 - Establishment Survey
US Employment -115,000 - Household Survey
US Unemployment -198,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work -334,000 - Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work +211,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate -0.1 - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment -0.3 to 13.7% - Household Survey
Civilian Labor Force -312,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force +516,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate -0.2 at 63.2 - Household Survey

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.
In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,554,000
Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 2,006,000 (an average of 167,000 a month)
In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,483,000 to 11,316,000 (a drop of 1,167,000)
Percentage of long-term unemployment (27 weeks or more) is 37.9%, an increase of 0.9 from last month.
The mean duration of unemployment also increased this month, from 36.6 weeks to 37 weeks.
7,911,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 8,043,000. There has been almost no improvement in a year. This is a volatile series.

August 2013 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) August 2013 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in August, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail trade and health care but declined in information.

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Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Employment History Since January 20000

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Change from Previous Month by Job Type

Hours and Wages

Average weekly hours of all private employees rose 0.1 to 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours. Average hourly earnings of all private workers rose $0.05 to $24.00. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.05 to $23.76.

Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013

Birth-Death Notes

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small.

For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment

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Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 7.3%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 13.7%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors

Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
People retire because they cannot find jobs
People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job
Disability and disability fraud

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 9%. In addition, there are 7,911,000 people who are working part-time but want full-time work.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage coupled with a massive increase in part-time jobs starting in October 2012 as a result of Obamacare legislation.

Wonderland Statistics

Compared to recent Gallup surveys, these BLS stats regarding the base unemployment rate and the alternative measures as well are straight from wonderland. For details, please see Gallup Says Seasonally-Adjusted Unemployment Climbs to 8.6%; Who to Believe (Gallup or the BLS)?

I believe Gallup. Thus, I expect more downward revisions in jobs, and upward revisions in the unemployment rate.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

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