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duminică, 26 ianuarie 2014

What if every president did this?

FEATURED

On Tuesday we're offering a special, enhanced version of President Obama's State of the Union address that you won't find anywhere else. Featuring graphics and charts that'll lay out the case for making 2014 a year of action, it's the best way for you to get the smartest take.

Which got us thinking: What if other presidents had an enhanced version of their State of the Union address?

Here's what we think that might look like -- watch, then RSVP to watch on Tuesday for the real deal:

HERE'S WHAT ELSE YOU MISSED THIS WEEK

A Big Block of Cheese

In an homage -- or fromage -- to President Andrew Jackson's 1837 open house, which featured a 1,400 lb. block of cheese, White House officials are answering your questions on social media. Make sure you take part this Wednesday, following the State of the Union:

Join a Virtual Road Trip

President Obama's taking a virtual road trip this Friday to answer questions from across the country, and we want you to come along for the ride. Find out how to join us on Google+.

Taking Over Instagram

All this week, White House officials have been taking over our Instagram feed to take you #InsideSOTU. Check out some of the photos below, and follow us on Instagram to see what's in store for the week ahead:

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Seth's Blog : Conference call hygiene

Conference call hygiene

On behalf of the many who have suffered through pointless and painful conference calls, some general principles:

When in doubt, don't have one.
Everyone now knows precisely what time it is. Show up ten seconds early; one minute late is too late.
If you can't live with rule 1, can we live with this one? 10 minutes is the maximum length of a conference call. In, out, over.
If the meeting is only ten minutes long, good news, you have time to pull over, time to let the dog out, and time to give us your undivided attention.
If you're not planning on speaking, no need to attend. You can listen to the recording later if you need to, or we can send you 8 bullet points and save us all time.
While we're on the topic, audio is a truly powerful means of communication, and if you want to record your message and send it to all of us, I'm totally in favor of this. But don't confuse the one-way broadcast power of audio with a pretend meeting where you're talking and we're supposed to quietly listen in real time. That's not a meeting and all the trappings of a conference call detract from the thing you were trying to do.
Before you waste a thousand dollars of company time on another conference call, listen to Al's book for $4. Almost all conference calls that involve more than five people are either a lazy choice or a show of power, and should be eliminated. If you want to talk, for sure, please pick up the phone and call me.

If we work in the plant, we make widgets. And we expect that the making of widgets will be consistent, rational and done with forethought and a lack of waste. Many of us now work in a system that makes decisions, has meetings and markets ideas. The same kind of clarity and craftsmanship ought to exist here too.

This video is funny, because it's true.

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sâmbătă, 25 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Venezuela Enacts "Law of Fair Prices" Banning Profits Over 30%, with 10-Year Imprisonment for Hoarding

Posted: 25 Jan 2014 07:49 PM PST

No matter how ridiculous things are, they can always get worse, especially when dealing with leftist dictators and hyperinflation setups.

Via translation from El Economista, please consider Venezuela Issues Law of Fair Prices, Prohibiting Profits Over 30%.

The Fair Prices Act, an instrument with which the Government of Nicolas Maduro intends to control prices and eliminate shortages, includes a ban on profit margins over 30%, with penalties of up to 10 years imprisonment for hoarders.

The law passed in November, and the Supreme Court ratified the law yesterday.

The law, published in Official Gazette, states that the profit margin will be established annually "addressing scientific criteria" by the National Superintendency for the Protection of Socio-Economic Rights (SUNDDE).

The law provides for the application of preventive measures and sanctions such as confiscation, temporary occupation of premises or property, the temporary closure of an establishment or suspension of licenses and the "immediate adjustment" price.

In the section of the law regarding hoarding, those who "restrict supply, circulation or distribution of regulated goods or cause distortions in prices, shall be punished with imprisonment judicially 8 to 10 years."

The law also provides for fines ranging from 107,000 bolivars ($17,000) to 5.3 million bolivars ($850,000).

SUNDDE will "fix maximum prices for the production or importation, distribution and consumption according to their importance and strategic nature for the benefit of the population as well as the technical criteria for assessing the levels of exchange equitable and fair of goods and services."

Under this preposterous measure, no companies will be able to import and sell goods at anything but a loss. Expect all goods and services to vanish soon.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Free Shipping Anecdotes from Canada

Posted: 25 Jan 2014 10:31 AM PST

Reader Ian, who lives in Ottawa, Canada is wondering "How do they do it?" Ian writes ...

Hello Mish

Recently I went to WalMart online to price cat litter. An 18 kg box - about 39.7 lb - was $8.98. This is the same as my local WalMart in-store price. But online came with free shipping.

I spoke to the guy who delivered the 2 boxes I ordered. He is an owner-operator of a shipping company that contracts for WalMart delivery. Since he owns his own truck, he has to pay gas, insurance, depreciation, licensing, maintenance, etc.

Questions abound.

How much does WalMart pay this guy for delivering an $18 order? How does this delivery provider survive? Is the cost of operating a store be so high that WalMart has enough margin to ship from a warehouse while offering free shipping?

I'm in Ottawa, Canada. I'm not even aware of a warehouse in our city. If there is no warehouse, the litter had to be shipped from a store, with no savings on store overhead.

Even if there is a warehouse, the increased distribution distance means the shipper must be paid more or go out of business.

WalMart seems to be somewhere between a traditional bricks and mortar model and an Amazon model. I don't understand how this works, but I'll use it while it exists, saving time and money.

Ian

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Weekly Address: Taking Action to End Sexual Assault

Featured

Weekly Address: Taking Action to End Sexual Assault

In his weekly address, President Obama said that the Administration has taken another important step to protect women at college by establishing the White House Task Force on Protecting Students from Sexual Assault. An estimated 1 in 5 women is sexually assaulted at college, and the President said that we will keep taking actions like strengthening the criminal justice system, reaching out to survivors, and changing social norms so that all Americans can feel safe and protected as they pursue their own piece of the American dream.

Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.

President Obama wanted you to know this

Hey --

Every year it's the same: In the days leading up to the State of the Union, the phone rings off the hook with everyone trying to figure out what will be in the President's address.

We're now just four days out -- and the President wanted you to get the first preview of what this speech is all about. As always, he'll be working on it right up until game time, but three words sum up the President's message on Tuesday night: opportunity, action, and optimism.

The core idea is as American as they come: If you work hard and play by the rules, you should have the opportunity to succeed. Your ability to get ahead should be based on your hard work and ambition and who you want to be, not just the raw circumstance of who you are when you're born.

On Tuesday night, the President will lay out a set of real, concrete, practical proposals to grow the economy, strengthen the middle class, and empower all who hope to join it.

RSVP now and watch the enhanced State of the Union on WhiteHouse.gov this Tuesday night:

In this year of action, the President will seek out as many opportunities as possible to work with Congress in a bipartisan way. But when American jobs and livelihoods depend on getting something done, he will not wait for Congress.

President Obama has a pen and he has a phone, and he will use them to take executive action and enlist every American -- business owners and workers, mayors and state legislators, young people, veterans, and folks in communities from across the country -- in the project to restore opportunity for all.

It will be an optimistic speech. Thanks to the grit and determination of citizens like you, America has a hard-earned right to that optimism. Five years after the President inherited the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, our businesses have created more than eight million new jobs in the past 46 months, and they're primed to create more.

With some action on all our parts, we can help more jobseekers find work, and more working Americans find the economic security they deserve. That's why, in the week following the speech, President Obama will travel to communities across the country -- including Prince George’s County Maryland, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Nashville, before returning to the White House to outline new efforts to help the long-term unemployed.

You need to tune in on Tuesday -- because this is about you.

Thanks,

Dan

Dan Pfeiffer
Senior Advisor
The White House
@Pfeiffer44

P.S. -- Senior White House staff (myself included) will take to our computers and answer as many of your questions as we can the day after the big speech. We want you to be a part of it -- check it out now.

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The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Seth's Blog : Measuring nothing (with great accuracy)

Measuring nothing (with great accuracy)

The weight of a television set has nothing at all to do with the clarity of its picture. Even if you measure to a tenth of a gram, this precise data is useless.

Some people measure stereo equipment using fancy charts and graphs, even though the charts and graphs say little or nothing about how it actually sounds.

A person's Klout score or the number of Twitter followers she has probably doesn't have a lot to do with how much influence she actually has, even if you measure it quite carefully.

You can't tell if a book is any good by the number of words it contains, even though it's quite easy and direct to measure this.

We keep coming up with new things to measure (like processor speed, heat output, column inches) but it's pretty rare that those measurements are actually a proxy for the impact or quality we care about. It takes a lot of guts to stop measuring things that are measurable, and even more guts to create things that don't measure well by conventional means.

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vineri, 24 ianuarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Retail Sales Cannibalization
Emerging Market Contagion Spreads; Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey Roundup; 50% Tax on Internet Purchases
Anecdotes From Home Depot Employee

Retail Sales Cannibalization

Posted: 24 Jan 2014 07:40 PM PST

Retail firings continue. Today, Wal-Mart announced a 2% Reduction in Sam's Club Employees to thin middle-manager ranks.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) is laying off about 2,300 employees at its Sam's Club warehouse unit to help thin the ranks of middle managers in its weakest stores, marking the club chain's biggest round of job cuts in four years.

Nearly half the job cuts at Sam's Club will target salaried assistant managers, and the remainder will be hourly employees at underperforming stores.

"Over the years, we've migrated to a top-heavy structure in our management," said Sam's Club Chief Executive Rosalind Brewer, in an interview. "What this does is align the number of assistant managers to the sales of the club and to where our growth areas are."

The cost-cutting moves come as Ms. Brewer aims to better compete with brick-and-mortar rival Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) as well as to take on online membership clubs like Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) Prime service. She seeks to double revenue and turn it into a $100 billion business, roughly the size of Costco.

J.C. Penney Cutting 33 Stores and 2,000 Jobs

The Sam's Club cuts are fresh on the heels of this announcement: J.C. Penney cutting 33 stores and 2,000 jobs

J.C. Penney Co. is attempting to right-size itself by closing 33 under-performing stores around the country and eliminating 2,000 positions, the retailer said Wednesday.

The Plano, Texas, company said it hopes the effort will save $65 million a year beginning this year.

Units getting the ax will finish shutting down in early May.

Macy's to Lay Off 2,500 Employees

Also recall this announcement earlier this month: Macy's to Lay Off 2,500 Employees Amid Cost-Cutting

In the same breath as it announced a "successful" holiday season, Macy's Inc. said it would lay off some 2,500 employees as it attempts to achieve $100 million in savings a year.

In addition to the workers losing their jobs, some associates will be reassigned or transferred, the retailer said. Not all open positions will be filled.

Customer Cannibalization

Let's now return to the lead story, Sam's Club. "CEO Brewer aims to better compete with brick-and-mortar rival Costco as well as to take on online membership clubs like Amazon Prime service. She seeks to double revenue and turn it into a $100 billion business, roughly the size of Costco."

Is that remotely possible? If so how?

The only way it is possible is via reducing prices and costs to the bare bone and taking customers away from Amazon, Macy's, J.C. Penny and its own parent company, Wal-Mart.

The deflationary repercussions are enormous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Emerging Market Contagion Spreads; Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey Roundup; 50% Tax on Internet Purchases

Posted: 24 Jan 2014 11:02 AM PST

Argentina Institutes 50% Tax on Internet Purchases; Emerging Market Contagion Spreads; Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey Roundup Yesterday, Argentina devalued the Peso hoping to halt further declines in its currency reserves. Markets had seen this coming as charts of the Peso vs. the US dollar show.

Peso vs. US Dollar One Week

Peso vs. US Dollar One Month

Peso vs. US Dollar Five Years

In the past 12 hours the peso fell as low as 8.164 to the dollar but currently sits at 7.164. Using the current close of 7.164 as our reference, here is a summary.

In the last week the peso fell from 6.643 to 7.164.
In the last month the peso fell from 6.362 to 7.164.
In the last five years the peso fell from 3.07 to 7.164.

The 5-year decline is over 50%.

Emerging Market Contagion Spreads

Bloomberg reports Contagion Spreads in Emerging Markets as Crises Grow

The worst selloff in emerging-market currencies in five years is beginning to reveal the extent of the fallout from the Federal Reserve's tapering of monetary stimulus, compounded by political and financial instability.

The Turkish lira plunged to a record and South Africa's rand fell yesterday to a level weaker than 11 per dollar for the first time since 2008. Argentine policy makers devalued the peso by reducing support in the foreign-exchange market, allowing the currency to drop the most in 12 years to an unprecedented low.

Investors are losing confidence in some of the biggest developing nations, extending the currency-market rout triggered last year when the Fed first signaled it would scale back stimulus. While Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa were the engines of global growth following the financial crisis in 2008, emerging markets now pose a threat to world financial stability.

"The current environment is potentially very toxic for emerging markets," Eamon Aghdasi, a strategist at Societe Generale SA in New York, said in a phone interview yesterday. "You have two very troubling things: uncertainty about the Fed policy, combined with concerns about growth, particularly in China. It's difficult to justify that it's time to go out and buy emerging markets at the moment."

Venezuela Reserves

In Venezuela, the government devalued its currency for airline tickets and incoming foreign direct investment on Jan. 22. International reserves are at a 10-year low.

Turkey Reserves

The lira plunged to a record 2.3224 per dollar and also declined to an all-time intraday low of 3.2069 per euro. Turkey's central bank refrained from raising benchmark rates this week, fueling concern that it will be difficult to finance current-account deficits.

Turkey holds about $33 billion in foreign reserves, excluding deposits from commercial banks, only enough to cover 1 1/2 months of imports, according to Citigroup Inc.

Argentina Devaluation

Yesterday, Bloomberg reported Argentina Devaluation Sends Currency Tumbling Most in 12 Years

50% Tax on Internet Purchases

The BBC reports Argentina restricts online shopping as foreign reserves drop

Argentina has introduced new restrictions on online shopping as part of efforts to stop foreign currency reserves from falling any further.

Anyone buying items through international websites will now need to sign a declaration and produce it at a customs office, where the packages have to be collected. The procedure will need to be repeated for every new purchase.

Argentina's reserves of hard currencies dropped by 30% last year.

The government of President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has introduced a number of restrictions on transactions with foreign currency.

Items imported through websites such as Amazon and eBay are no longer delivered to people's home addresses. The parcels need to be collected from the customs office. Individuals are allowed to buy items up to the value of $25 (£15) from abroad tax free every year. Once the $25 level is reached, online shoppers in Argentina need to pay a 50% tax on each item bought from international websites.

One resident of Buenos Aires, who gave his name as Martin, described the tax as "crazy".

But he told the BBC: "The real problem is that the item is received in customs now instead of at your home. Each time you go to customs, you need to spend three or four hours.

Food Price Controls

Earlier this month, Reuters reported Argentine peso at new lows as food price controls take effect

Argentina's peso slid to an all-time low on Tuesday as supermarkets froze prices in a deal with the government aimed at shielding poor families from one of the world's highest inflation rates.

The year-long price fix on 200 basic food products signals continuation of President Cristina Fernandez's interventionist policies even as polls show her image has been battered by 25 percent inflation, falling reserves and electricity shortages.

Tight currency and trade controls, as well as last year's state seizure of Argentina's top energy company YPF have taken a toll on confidence, while the electricity grid, ailing from lack of investment, fails to keep air conditioners humming at the height of the Southern Hemisphere summer.

The supermarket price freeze is the biggest policy move yet by fledgling Economy Minister Axel Kicillof, a leftist academic appointed in November.

Widely discredited official figures put inflation in the 12 months through November at 10.5 percent, while private economists say Argentine inflation is running at more than 25 percent annually.

Argentina is meanwhile struggling to attract the tens of millions of dollars it needs to develop its Vaca Muerta shale formation. Lying beneath the Patagonian plains, the Vaca Muerta (Dead Cow) field is estimated to hold 661 billion barrels of oil and 1,181 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

It could be one of the biggest formations of its kind in the Western Hemisphere.

Black Market Purchases Will Soar

Price controls and currency pegs at ridiculous rates cause black markets. With the additional 50% tax on online purchases, expect black market trade to soar.

Ag Connection

Argentina gets what little foreign reserves it has, being the number 3 soybean and corn supplier, as well as its top provider of soymeal animal feed and soyoil, used in biofuels.

Soybean Monthly Chart

Corn Monthly Chart

Soybean prices are still well above the 2009 lows, but are also far below the highs of a year ago. The price of corn is far below the highs of a year ago, and nearing the 2009 lows.

These trends are heightening the already huge problems of emerging market exporters.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Anecdotes From Home Depot Employee

Posted: 24 Jan 2014 09:19 AM PST

In Target Drops Healthcare Coverage for Part-Time Workers I implied Target was disingenuous in its claim it would not reduce hours because of Obamacare.

No Reduction in Hours?

Target claims there will be no reductions in hours worked. The only way I believe that is if Target already reduced hours, well in advance.

The huge, ongoing discrepancy between Household Survey employment, and the Establishment Survey jobs report suggests just that.

Although I do not have proof or even anecdotes from Target employees, I did receive an interesting email from "Pat", a Home Depot worker.

Hi Mish,

As a part-time employee of Home Depot (HD) for almost eight years now, I can affirm that every part-time worker at HD has had a cap of 29 hours placed on their work schedules. This occurred over a year ago, with no fanfare or announcement. Before the change we part-timers could count on more than 30 hours during the busy spring and summer months. Full-time jobs are only available if someone leaves the store, and sometimes not even then.

Although the store I work at seems to be doing well if one looks at sales (rewards are based on 1/2 year performance), it does not 'feel' like it is doing well...and I have not been able to determine exactly what has changed.

As a relatively new subscriber to your blog it has been good to read of what is going on economically around the globe. Much of what you highlight is not mentioned in the media I follow, so it fills a gap. Thanks!

Pat

One email from one reader is not proof of anything. Heck, anecdotes in general do not constitute legitimate data. That said, I have received stacks of similar emails over the past year, all saying the same or similar thing.

I even received an email from the owner of 50-store regional chain who said he was going to reduce hours (because he had to).

Yet, Obama and mainstream media do not see (or admit) this happened.

I maintain there is genuine supporting data for my thesis. For details, please see Employment vs. Jobs Discrepancy - December 2013 Data.

Inquiring minds should also be interested in a related post Tsunami of Retail Store Closings and Downsizings Coming; Expect Layoffs and Shorter Hours.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

duminică, 26 ianuarie 2014

What if every president did this?

Seth's Blog : Conference call hygiene

Conference call hygiene

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sâmbătă, 25 ianuarie 2014

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