Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Germany Blinks After All-Night Fight; Italy and Spain Still Not Happy; For Now, Futures Are
• Monti Threatens to Halt the Game of Marbles Unless he Gets the Big Green One; Hollande Threatens to Remove Marbles as Well; EU Summit Deadlocked
• Eurozone Retail Sales Drop 8th Month; Italy, France are Down; Germany Retail Sales Up, Outlook Down
• Obamacare Upheld; What Should Romney, Republicans Do?
• Bankia Valued at EUR -13.635 Billion; Spain Becomes Sole Owner, Shareholders Totally Wiped Out; Entire Bankia Board Resigns

Germany Blinks After All-Night Fight; Italy and Spain Still Not Happy; For Now, Futures Are Posted: 28 Jun 2012 09:23 PM PDT It's a love-fest in Asia futures once again, but will it hold on Friday or through the weekend? One thing's for sure, sentiment was so sour about this 19th summit, that any bit of good news stood a decent chance of temporarily igniting the market. You can actually credit German chancellor Angela Merkel for that sour sentiment because she repeatedly stated Germany would not give in. The latest reports suggest Germany did blink, but not enough to please Italy, Spain, and France. The fact remains that Italy, Spain, and France all want something that is virtually impossible. They demand actions that are against the German constitution. Simply put, it's not going to happen. Meanwhile, let's tune in to what has the futures all excited. All Night Fight Please consider the Financial Times report Eurozone officials in all-night aid fight German officials gave their clearest indication to date that they were prepared to intervene to shore up Italian and Spanish borrowing costs, saying eurozone leaders should use existing powers with their €440bn rescue fund for short-term help. After weeks of insisting they would not budge on short-term measures, the sudden German acquiescence led to a flurry of activity in Brussels, where EU leaders gathered for the latest in a series of high-stakes summits intended to solve the crisis. Unexpectedly, senior officials from all 17 eurozone finance ministries met on the sidelines of the summit to weigh emergency plans for Rome and Madrid which focused on using the rescue fund to buy Italian and Spanish bonds to reverse the recent spike in yields. That certainly isn't much. Indeed this next snip seems far more meaningful in a negative sense. The political stakes for Mr Monti also rose on Thursday. Giorgio Napolitano, the Italian president and a strong Monti backer, said that political support for his technocratic government was slipping – an implicit warning to European leaders that Mr Monti needed to return from Brussels with assistance. "Conflicts and political polemics among the forces that support this government are increasing," Mr Napolitano said a written statement. Euro Surges After EU Leaders Renounce Seniority Since the Financial Times does not have the rest of the story, let's look elsewhere. In a move that will put still more risk on German taxpayers, and also what likely has the futures market excited (until the next problem hits), Euro Rises After EU Leaders Renounce Spain Loan Seniority reports Bloomberg. The euro surged the most this year after European leaders agreed to drop the condition that emergency loans to Spanish banks give their governments preferred creditor status. No Problems Solved In isolation, renouncing seniority is certainly net positive for bond yields in Spain and Italy. However, it does not solve a single structural problem. Moreover, that move it is certain to raise ire of some in Germany and Finland who will have to bear the risk. If this is all the summit produces (other then the expected fluff to agree to agree to do something five years from now), expect whatever gains  (if any) that come from this maneuver to be fleeting.  Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Monti Threatens to Halt the Game of Marbles Unless he Gets the Big Green One; Hollande Threatens to Remove Marbles as Well; EU Summit Deadlocked Posted: 28 Jun 2012 06:35 PM PDT Conditions at the EU summit are breaking down more than expected thanks to a position taken by Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. Acting like a spoiled brat in a game of marbles, Monti refuses to let anyone else play unless he gets the big green marble he wants. In less colorful terms, Bloomberg explains Monti Withholds EU Growth Pact Approval Unless He Gets Interest Rate Relief. Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti may block the 120 billion-euro ($149 billion) growth initiative announced by European Union President Herman Van Rompuy without an effort to reduce its borrowing costs, two Italian officials said. Italy is withholding its official endorsement as it pushes for collective action at an EU summit in Brussels to push down its bond yields, said the officials who spoke on the condition that they not be named. EU Summit Gridlocked Euroskeptics will be pleased to note the summit is gridlocked, at least for the moment. How do we know this? Easy. EU President Herman Van Rompuy said "talks weren't gridlocked" and will continue through the night and later today. Moreover, Hollande threatened to temporarily remove his marbles from the game as well. Please consider this snip from Demands for Bond-Buying Agreement Roil European Summit French President Francois Hollande said Italy and Spain ought to receive support from the euro area's firewall funds and that their yields are still too high after the efforts they've made to reform their economies. Spain's 10-year yields breached 7 percent and Italy auctioned 10-year securities at the highest yields since December yesterday. Hollande said the growth remarks "aren't enough" and that he'll withhold endorsement of an EU fiscal pact, which was endorsed by his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy in December, at least until the end of the two-day summit. "The euro zone cannot stay in the current circumstance, without a budgetary union and even more without a banking union," Hollande told reporters. Since German chancellor Angela Merkel will not agree to a banking union or a budgetary union, the EU summit is for sure deadlocked. It will remain deadlocked until Monti and Hollande change their opinions, effectively putting their marbles back in the game. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Eurozone Retail Sales Drop 8th Month; Italy, France are Down; Germany Retail Sales Up, Outlook Down Posted: 28 Jun 2012 01:25 PM PDT German retail sales bounced back for the second month, but not enough to prevent the aggregate eurozone sales from falling for the eighth consecutive month. Summary of June findings: The Eurozone retail sector remained in contraction mid-way through 2012, according to PMI® data from Markit. Sales fell on a month-on-month basis for the eighth successive month – the third-longest sequence in the survey history – and purchases of new goods by retailers declined at the second-fastest pace on record. That said, the rate of decline in sales slowed sharply during the month. Germany, France, Italy Sales The key sentence is "purchases of new goods by retailers declined at the second-fastest pace on record." Will inventory liquidation continue or will retail sales rebound? Liquidation can only go so far, but that does not mean sales will rebound in a meaningful way. There is certainly no reason to expect a rebound in sales, but data seldom runs in a straight line. Much depends on Germany. Yet, in spite of a two month rebound in sales, Germany alone could not pull aggregate sales up to even. Italy Remains a Disaster Zone Individually, Italy Retail Sales remain a disaster zone. June sales were down sharply on levels seen in the corresponding month one year ago, which firms linked to lower consumer purchasing power and greater uncertainty over the economic outlook. The annual rate of contraction was, however, slower than May's series record. Targets set for June were missed by the majority of firms, with a lack of confidence among clients and unfavourable weather conditions among the reasons cited by those that registered lower-thanexpected sales. Although the narrowest for three months, the gap between actual and planned sales remained considerable. As was the case in each of the previous two survey periods, retailers were downbeat with regards to the prospects of achieving July targets. In fact, the overall degree of sentiment in June was one of the most negative in the series history, matching that recorded last December. Markets turn on extreme sentiment, yet sentiment can remain extreme for long periods of time. Here is an accurate assessment by Markit economist Phil Smith. "Retail PMI data for June continue to underline the effects that decreasing real wages, rising tax burdens and greater job insecurity are each having on Italian households' willingness and ability to spend. High street sales were again down markedly on the month, leading to further reductions in profitability and employment in the sector. Rates of decline were slower in June, though, given that this came on the back of some of the worst months trading in the series history, this was by no means a cause for celebration." Retailer Purchasing Falls at Record Rate in France Inventory reduction is underway in France as Purchasing Falls at Record Rate French retailers reported a slower decrease in sales during June. The latest drop was only modest and much weaker than in the preceding two months. However, the performance over Q2 as a whole has been the worst since the inception of the survey in 2004, as trading has suffered in the face of difficult economic conditions. With retailers attempting to prevent an unwanted build-up of inventories, the value of goods purchased for resale fell at a series-record rate. Meanwhile, intense competitive pressures led to another marked drop in gross margins, while retail sector employment decreased at an accelerated pace. Jack Kennedy, Senior Economist at Markit and author of the France Retail PMI, said: "The French retail sector continued to struggle in June, as the tough economic climate led to another drop in sales. The failure to rebound from May's severe weakness, when trading was impacted by a run of public holidays and the presidential election, underlines the strong headwinds facing retailers amid depressed consumer purchasing power and high unemployment. The overall sales performance over the second quarter has been the weakest since the survey began in 2004, and it was therefore no surprise to see accelerated falls in both purchasing and employment during June as retailers went into retrenchment mode." Germany Retail Sales Up, Outlook Down Markit reports Stronger increase in German retail sales, but outlook is reported as weakest for 2½ years German retailers indicated a further rebound in monthly sales in June, with the pace of expansion reaching a three-month high. At 52.4, up from 50.7 in May, the seasonally adjusted Germany Retail PMI was above the neutral 50.0 value for the second month running. The latest reading pointed was above the long-run survey average (49.9) and indicated to a moderate increase in month-on-month retail sales in Germany. Some firms linked the improvement to better weather conditions and higher consumer spending as a result of the European Football Championship in June. First drop in goods ordered for resale in nine months Retailers in Germany responded to worries about the outlook for sales by reducing the value of goods ordered for resale at their stores in June. This was the first reduction since September 2011 and in turn contributed to the slowest accumulation of stocks of goods for resale so far in 2012. In spite of highly unusual reports of higher sales due to "better weather" as well as higher sales because of football (soccer) championships, Markit reports ... Actual sales in June were generally lower than expected, as has been the case in each of the past three months. Moreover, German retailers signalled a marked degree of pessimism about the outlook for their sales in one month's time. The balance of firms expecting to reach their targets in July is the lowest for two-and-a-half years. Anecdotal evidence widely cited concerns about the impact of weakening domestic economic conditions, alongside uncertainty related to the euro area crisis, as the main factors leading to downbeat sentiment in the retail sector. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Obamacare Upheld; What Should Romney, Republicans Do? Posted: 28 Jun 2012 10:53 AM PDT Today the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Obamacare by a 5-4 margin. Here is the Full Text of the Supreme Court Ruling. Romney has promised to overturn the ruling, saying "ObamaCare was bad policy yesterday, it's bad policy today." That statement makes Romney a hypocrite as the Financial Times notes. "Obamacare places the government between you and your doctor," said Mr Romney, who championed a similar plan while governor of Massachusetts but says he opposes its expansion at a federal level. Why wasn't it bad policy in Massachusetts? Obama Chimes In Here are some quotes from a press conference of President Obama as reported by The Guardian. "Whatever the politics, today's decision was a victory for people all over this country" "It should be pretty clear by now that I didn't do this because it would be good politics." "Today I am as confidence as ever, that when we look back five years from now, or 10 years from now, or 20 years from now, we will be better off because we had the courage to pass this law and keep moving forward." Clearly, Obamacare was not good politics. The president took no questions to which the Guardian commented "What was interesting is that Obama – for the first time in a while – offered an unapologetic defense of the healthcare reforms. That's going to make for a different approach in the presidential campaign." Small Likelihood of Overturning Obamacare Even if Romney were to win, he would be extremely challenged to overturn Obamacare outright. Senate filibuster rules are such that Democrats will easily be able to block it. Besides, Democrats have a majority in the Senate and do not even need a Filibuster move to block changes. Given the Supreme Court ruled Obamacare is a tax, there would be some scope for Republicans to trash it in the once a year Reconciliation Process that limits Congressional debate. After all, that is how the bill passed in the first place. Still, to use reconciliation, Republicans will have to elect Romney, hold the House and take control of the Senate. Is that likely? Justice Robert's Opinion Members of this Court are vested with the authority to interpret the law; we possess neither the expertise nor the prerogative to make policy judgments. Those decisions are entrusted to our Nation's elected leaders, who can be thrown out of office if the people disagree with them. It is not our job to protect the people from the consequences of their political choices. Pragmatically Speaking We can debate all day whether or not the Supreme Court made the correct ruling. However, such debate is useless. It will not change a thing. Like it or not, the Supreme Court ruled that we are stuck with Obamacare unless Congress changes it. Pragmatically speaking, it would be more beneficial to have discussions on how to improve healthcare rather than howling at the moon against it. However, I suspect Romney will keep howling at the moon even though he was in favor of essentially the same moon when he was governor of Massachusetts. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Bankia Valued at EUR -13.635 Billion; Spain Becomes Sole Owner, Shareholders Totally Wiped Out; Entire Bankia Board Resigns Posted: 28 Jun 2012 12:34 AM PDT Five days ago we heard from the Bank of Spain that Spanish banks only need between €16bn and €62bn in new capital. For details, see Laugh of the Day: Stress Tests Show Spanish Banks Only Need Between €16bn and €62bn in New Capital; ECB to Accept BBB- Rated Debt (One Step Above Junk) as Collateral In the same report we also heard that the three largest bank groups do not need any capital at all. Bear in mind that was allegedly in a "stress" scenario. Today we learned that Bankia is Valued at EUR -13.635 Billion The seven banks that founded Bankia be left out of the shareholders of the entity and the State will be made with one hundred percent of the group's parent, Bank Savings Financial (BFA), the latter having a negative value of 13.635 million euros According to the assessment commissioned by the state. After the assessment, the FROB becomes the sole owner of BFA. Thus, the seven savings banks that created the group, Caja Madrid, Bancaja, La Caja de Canarias, Caja de Avila, Laietana Caixa, Caja Segovia and Caja Rioja, stay out of the shareholders. Finally, BFA proceed to recapitalize its subsidiary, Bankia, with an injection of 12,000 million euros. He will do through a capital increase in which existing shareholders will have preferential subscription rights. It is expected that the capital increase in Bankia be completed during October. The European Commission today gave its approval temporary nationalization and recapitalization of the matrix BFA waiting for Spain to send to Brussels a restructuring plan of the institution in the next six months. I strongly suspect that a valuation of -13.635 billion euros is on the wildly optimistic side. Entire Bankia Board Resigns Here is an amusing picture from the El Pais article The assessment shows a group of Bankia 13.635 billion hole El Pais reports ... The group Bankia worthless. Worse, his assessment is negative, -13.635 billion euros. That is the appraisal on the face of nationalization has been presented today to the board of the entity, sources of such advice. That means that the conversion of the 4.465 million of preferred shares of Bank Savings Financial (BFA) results in 100% nationalization of the matrix and, indirectly, 45% of Bankia, but the assessment does not directly affect the bank quoted. The BFA board of directors resigned en bloc. The seven savings banks that are BPA was created without any equity in the state, leaving them no future dividends to be used for social work . The entities concerned are Caja Madrid, Bancaja, La Caja de Canarias, Caja de Avila, Laietana Caixa, Caja Segovia and Caja Rioja. The seven contributed to its financial business BFA and are now nothing more than the assets of the work were marginalized social integration. Did they all retire with full pensions? Looking back, Bankia has provided more laughs than I remembered. May 7, 2012: Spain to Spend €7bn-€10bn (It Doesn't Have), Bailing Out Bankia, the Nation's 3rd Largest Bank; Liar, Liar Pants on Fire May 9, 2012: Audit Shows Spain's Bankia Short 3.5 Billion Euros; PP says "We Must Help Bankia, It Has Deposits for 10% of GDP" May 10, 2012: Spain Nationalizes BFA and 45% of Bankia; No Bid for CatalunyaCaixa, Bank Worth Less Than Zero; Der Spiegel: Germany Fears "Bottomless Pit" The implosion in Spanish banks continues. On Wednesday, Spain nationalized BFA, the 8th nationalization since the start of the crisis. After sinking 3 billion into CatalunyaCaixa, Spain tried to privatize the mess but there were no offers at zero euros. Clearly CatalunyaCaixa bank is worth less than zero. Meanwhile Der Spiegel reports "Bundesbank has no idea of what is happening in Spanish banks". Mish readers do. The Spanish banking system is without a doubt bankrupt. Emphasis added. Today we see that Bankia and the entire group is worth less than zero. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Damn Cool Pics

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• Bowser Beer for Dogs
• Custom Stormtrooper Head Lawn Chair
• T-Shirt Culture Index [Infographic]

Bowser Beer for Dogs Posted: 28 Jun 2012 01:50 PM PDT Bowser Beer is a special micro-brew crafted and bottled just for dogs. The Minnesota-based company behind the beer, 3 Busy Dogs, was started by Jenny Brown who concocted the malty brew in 2007. The beer is safe for dogs, as it contains no alcohol, carbonation or harmful hops. Dogs can enjoy the two meaty flavors offered: Cock-a-Doodle-Brew (chicken) or Beefy Brown Ale (beef).

Custom Stormtrooper Head Lawn Chair Posted: 28 Jun 2012 01:36 PM PDT This unique Stormtrooper head lawn chair is the work of the GotWood Workshop. However, there's some disappointing news for those hoping to get one of their own. According to their Facebook page, the chair was strictly a test project and cannot be replicated for sale due to copyright infringement. Via Geekologie

T-Shirt Culture Index [Infographic] Posted: 28 Jun 2012 01:18 PM PDT Custom t-shirt company Fibers has charted some popular t-shirt stereotypes in their T-Shirt Culture Index. Click on Image to Enlarge.

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What the Supreme Court's ruling means for your health care

Thursday, June 28, 2012   What the Supreme Court's ruling means for your health care Today, the Supreme Court issued a historic ruling: They upheld the Affordable Care Act and ensured that millions of American families will have access to health care and protection from the worst abuses of the insurance industry. Lots of people have questions about the Affordable Care Act, the Supreme Court's decision, and their health care coverage. We've pulled together the most useful information -- including President Obama's remarks after the announcement -- at WhiteHouse.gov: Watch the video and get the facts here. Because the law has an impact on so many Americans, it's important to understand its basic parts. We've also put together a list of facts about the Affordable Care Act. Will you give it a read, and then pass it on? Stay Connected     Facebook Twitter YouTube Flickr Google+       This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Manage Subscriptions for e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Sign Up for Updates from the White House Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Which Page is Canonical?

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Which Page is Canonical? Posted: 27 Jun 2012 08:03 PM PDT Posted by Dr. Pete It sounds like an easy question, doesn’t it? While we hear a lot about duplicate content since the Panda update(s), I’m amazed at how many people are still confused by a much more fundamental question – which URL for any given page is the canonical URL? While the idea of a canonical URL is simple enough, finding it for a large, data-driven site isn’t always so easy. This post will guide you through the process with some common cases that I see every week. Let’s Play Count the Pages Before we dive in, let’s cover the biggest misunderstanding that people have about “pages” on their websites. When we think of a page, we often think of a physical file containing code (whether it’s static HTML or script, like a PHP file). To a crawler, a page is any unique URL that it finds. One file could theoretically generate thousands of unique URLs, and every one of those is potentially a “page” in Google’s eyes. It’s easy to smile and nod and all agree that we understand, but let’s put it to the test. In each of the following scenarios, how many pages does Google see? (A) “Static” Site www.example.com/ www.example.com/store www.example.com/about www.example.com/contact (B) PHP-based Site www.example.com/index.php www.example.com/store.php www.example.com/about.php www.example.com/contact.php (C) Single-template Site www.example.com/index.php?page=home www.example.com/index.php?page=store www.example.com/index.php?page=about www.example.com/index.php?page=contact The answer is (A) 4, (B) 4, and (C) 4. In Google’s eyes, it doesn’t matter whether the pages have extensions (“.php”), the home-page is at the root (“/”) or at index.php, or even if every page is being driven off of one physical template. There are four unique URLs, and that means there are four pages. If Google can crawl them all, they’ll all be indexed (usually). Let’s dive right into a few examples. Please note: these are just examples. I’m not recommending any of the URL structures in this post as ideal – I’m just trying to help you determine the correct canonical URL for any given situation. Case 1: Tracking URLs I’ll start with an easy one. Many sites still use URL parameters to track visitor sessions or links from affiliates. No matter what the parameter is called or which purpose it’s used for, it creates a duplicate for every individual visitor or affiliate. Here are a few examples: www.example.com/store.php?session=1234 www.example.com/store.php?affiliate=5678 www.example.com/store.php?product=1234&affiliate=5678 In the first two examples, the session and affiliate ID create a copy, in essence, of the main store page. In both of these cases, the proper canonical URL is simply: www.example.com/store.php The last example is a bit trickier. There, we also have a “product=” parameter that drives the product being displayed. This parameter is essential – it determines the actual content of the page. So, only the “affiliate=” parameter should be stripped out, and the canonical URL is: www.example.com/store.php?product=1234 This is just one of many cases where the canonical URL is NOT the root template or the URL with no parameters. Canonical URLs aren’t always short or pretty – many canonical URLs will have parameters. Again, I’m not arguing that this structure is ideal. I’m just saying that the canonical URL in this case would have to include the “product=” parameter. Case 2: “Dynamic” URLs Unfortunately, the word “dynamic” gets thrown around a little too freely – for the purposes of this blog post, I mean any URLs that pass variables to generate unique content. Those variables could look like traditional URL parameters or be embedded as “folders”. A good example of the kind of URLs I’m talking about are blog post URLs. Take these four: www.example.com/blog/1234 www.example.com/blog.php?id=1234 www.example.com/blog.php?id=1234&comments=on www.example.com/blog/20120626 Again, it doesn’t matter whether the URLS have parameters or hide those parameters as virtual folders. All of these URLs use a unique value (either an ID or date) to generate a specific blog post. So what’s the canonical URL here? Obviously, if you canonicalize to “/blog”, you’re going to reduce your entire blog to one page. It’s a bit of a trick question, because the canonical URL could actually be something like this: www.example.com/blog/this-is-a-blog-post This is why we have such a hard time detecting the proper canonical URLs with automated tools – it really takes a deep knowledge of a site’s architecture and the builder’s intent. Don’t make assumptions based on the URL structure. You have to understand your architecture and crawl paths. If you just start stripping off URL parameters, you could cause an SEO disaster. Case 3: The Home-page It might seem strange to put the home page third, but the truth is that the first two cases were probably easier. Part of the problem is that home pages naturally spin out a lot of variations: www.example.com www.example.com/ www.example.com/default.html www.example.com/index.php www.example.com/index.php?page=about Add in complications like secure pages (https:), and you can end up multiplying all of these variants. While this is technically true of any page, the problem tends to be more common for the home page, since it’s usually the most linked-to page (both internally and from external sites) by a large margin. In most cases, the technically correct home-page URL is: http://www.example.com/ …but there are exceptions (such as if you secure your entire site). I don’t see the trailing slash (“/”) causing a ton of problems on home pages these days, since most browsers and crawlers add it automatically, but I think it’s still a best practice to use it. Another common exception is if your site automatically redirects to another version of the home-page – ASP is notorious about this, and often lands visitors and bots at “index.aspx” or a similar page. While that situation isn’t ideal, you don’t want to cross signals. If the redirect is necessary, then the target of that redirect (i.e. the “index.aspx” URL) should be your canonical URL. Finally, be very careful about situation #5 – in that case, as I discussed in the first section of this post, the “index.php” code template is actually driving other pages with unique content. Canonicalizing that to the root or to “index.php” could collapse your site to one page in the Google index. That particular scenario is rare these days, but some CMS systems still use it. Case 4: Product Pages In some ways, product pages are a lot like the blog-post pages in Case #2, except moreso. You can naturally end up with a lot of variations on an e-commerce site, including: www.example.com/store.php?id=1234 www.example.com/store/1234 www.example.com/store/this-is-a-product www.example.com/store.php?id=1234&currency=us www.example.com/store/1234/red www.example.com/store/1234/large If you have a URL like #3, then that’s going to be your canonical URL for the product in most cases (especially #1-#3). If you don’t, then work up the list. In other words, if you have #3, use it; if not, use #2; if not #2, use #1. You have to work with the structure you have. URLs #4-#6 are a bit trickier. Something like the currency selector in #4 can be very complicated and depends on how those selections are implemented (user selection vs. IP-based geo-location, for example). For Google’s purposes, you would typically want them to use the dominant price for the site’s audience and canonical to the main product URL (#1-#3, depending on the site architecture). Indexing every price variant, unless you have multiple domains, is just going to make your content look thinner. With #5 and #6, the URL indicates a product variant, let’s say a T-shirt that comes in different colors and sizes. This situation depends a lot on the structure and scope of the content. Technically, your T-shirt in red/large is unique, and yet that page could look “thin” in Google’s eyes. If you have a variant or two for a handful of products, it’s no big deal. If every product has 50 possible combinations, then I think you need to seriously consider canonicalization. Case 5: Search Pages Now, the ugliest case of them all – internal search pages. This is a double-edged sword, since Google isn’t a fan of search-within-search (their results landing on your results) in general and these pages tend to spin out of control. Here are some examples: www.example.com/search.php?topic=1234 www.example.com/search/this-is-a-topic www.example.com/topic www.example.com/search.php?topic=1234&page=2 www.example.com/search.php?topic=1234&page=2&sort=desc www.example.com/search.php?topic=1234&page=2&filter=price The list, unfortunately, could go on and on. While it’s natural to think that the canonical version should be #1-#3 (depending on your URL structure, just like in Case #4), the trouble is pagination. Pages 2 and beyond of your topic search may appear thin, in some cases, but they return unique results and aren’t technically duplicates. Google’s solutions have changed over time, and their advice can be frustrating, but they currently say to use the rel=prev/next tags. Put simply, these tags tell Google that the pages are part of a series. In cases like #5-#6, Google recommends you use rel=prev/next for the pagination but then a canonical tag for the “&page=2” version (to collapse the sorts and filters). Implementing this properly is very complicated and well beyond the scope of this post, but the main point is that you should not canonicalize all of your search pages to page 1. Adam Audette has an excellent post on pagination that demonstrates just how tricky this topic is. Know Your Crawl Paths Finally, an important reminder – the most important canonical signal is usually your internal links. If you use the canonical tag to point to one version of a URL, but then every internal link uses a different version, you’re sending a mixed signal and using the tag as a band-aid. The canonical URL should actually be canonical in practice – use it consistently. If you’re an outside SEO coming into a new site, make sure you understand the crawl paths first, before you go and add a bunch of tags. Don’t create a mess on top of a mess. Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. 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How to Write Email to Get a Better Response Rate Posted: 27 Jun 2012 03:25 AM PDT Posted by moosahemani This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc. A successful SEO campaign is the perfect combination of all strategies. Whether you're working with on-page optimization, content development, social media, or link building, all of these factors contain equal value. When it comes to picking the most difficult SEO strategy, I will always give my vote to link building as this part is one of the most difficult, boring ,and time consuming strategies you can implement. A few days back, I shared a picture of the perfect bedroom for a link builder on Facebook: Almost perfect, despite the coffee pot missing ;) Yes, link building can be boring, tough, and time consuming. However, one person on the team can dive into link building and get their hands dirty to get the job done in order to produce effective and action-driven results for the business. Many people use different tactics when it comes to link building. One of the famous and most effective techniques that almost every ethical SEO uses is to manually outreach to other webmasters and ask for a link. Although the rate of response can be low, implementing a few smart email writing tactics can actually increase the response rate. In this post, I will discuss a few tactics that I have used in recent campaigns where I had to write good amount of manual email to a variety of influencers and bloggers to ask them for a link favor. I tried out a few different ideas and finally created a format that allowed me to write every email as personalized as possible, while saving a lot of my time. Here I go! Use catchy subject titles The first section of an email everyone reads is the title. It is important to have a catchy title or else your email will soon be sent directly to the trash bin. Do not try to manipulate the reader by creating false title, but instead create a title that is interesting and captivating to act as a perfect lead-in for the valuable content of the email. Some good examples of titles are: Rand, your comments on my link prospect research will be valuable Would appreciate if you allowed me to guest post on your blog Sam, would appreciate if you could remove our link from your footer bar (Penguin friendly) Length of the email This is an extremely important factor. Do not write a one-line email that clarifies nothing. You want to make sure your email's content delivers the intended actions and requests in a concise, yet inclusive, manner. Similarly, do not stuff the email with tons of unnecessary information. In either case, the recipient is likely to delete your message right away without even reading it (yeah, I can see you having a déjà-vu here). A perfect email should have, more or less, two paragraphs that describe the solid reason for writing that email. Use names Not rocket science, but always a good reminder! Use the intended recipient's name while asking them for a favor, or do not expect them to reply back. The people you are writing to are busy just like you, and their to-do lists are already filled with tasks to accomplish. You better make your request sounds important, and that starts with using their name. How many times have you ignored emails addressed to ‘Hello Webmaster,’ or similar? Plenty. Take a little step forward, do your research, search for their names, and use them! After all, it is all in the name! Example: Hello Jennifer, <Move on with the rest of the email!> The first paragraph If you are writing an email of 100 words or more, it is important that your first paragraph should be appealing, smart, and engaging enough to encourage your reader to happily continue their journey through the end of the message. I've tried different formats and ideas for emails, but what stuck best with my campaign was to dedicate the entire first paragraph to the receiver. This may sound like a lot of work, but checking the social profiles and doing some background on your recipient can tell you an enormous amount about a person. Ultimately, this will let you to talk to him or her more comfortably. Example: Hello Jason, It was great to see your interview and find out more about you on ‘Alessio Madeyski’s’ post. After reading your advice on SEO, I believe you are the right person to ask for an opinion on my research. OR Hello Ann, I am your continuous reader of your different blogs that include Daily SEO tips, my blog guest, and other platforms where you write. I think you are one of the best bloggers who has a great style of writing, and your ability to put down complex problems on paper make them easy to read and comprehend. The second paragraph Don’t drag, just say it! Now that you've hit the second paragraph, you've made it to the ground floor of your email. If you are going to drag your point out a little longer, then you will probably lose the interest of the recipient. Try to be direct in the second paragraph and let the reader know what you want from him or her. Try to explain your objective in few lines and move towards the end of your note. Example: I actually took a step forward to help a specific niche outside of SEO (as much is already happening in the SEO bubble). In order to do that, I researched and compiled a list of 3K+ link prospects which any travel website/blog can use to get authority links. OR Although I'm advanced in SEO knowledge, I am planning to start writing and sharing my views to the blogging world and collect feedback that will help me grow as a better professional. The ending note Now that you have done your job in describing your objective behind the email, it is time to sum it up nicely in a courteous way. I would love if you could take two minutes to look over the data and pass along your feedback. Waiting for your reply! Regards, <your name> OR I would appreciate if you could allow me to write a guest post on your blog. Please let me know if it is possible. Regards, <Your Name> Why I prefer this format I've been working on improving my emails for quite some time now, and this pitch and format has worked for me almost every time. Here are a few reasons why I think this email format is sure to get you a better rate of response: You are pushing the limit of personalization, so you are leaving less space for the recipient to think about ignoring the email. This format is not short enough to look lousy, but not lengthy enough to bore or overwhelm the reader. Emails that contain a personal touch from the start of the title through the end of the note are set up for a reply. The email contains no dragging content, so there is less of a chance that the reader will get frustrated while reading. The first paragraph is powerful and dedicated to receiver, which makes them happy and encourages them to read the email through the end. Obviously the rate of response is not likely to be 100 percent, but I have found that using this format increases the rate of response for different niches. If you have any other formatting ideas or suggestions, I would love to hear them! Please share your views in the comment section. About the Author: Moosa Hemani is a SEO strategist and writes about SEO and related stuff on different blogs. He recently started an SEO Blog where he shares his opinions about SEO, search engines, social, and inbound. Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

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