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Inspired by a talk I gave yesterday at the BOS conference. This is long, feel free to skip!
My first real job was leading a team that created five massive computer games for the Commodore 64. The games were so big they needed four floppy disks each, and the project was so complex (and the hardware systems so sketchy) that on more than one occasion, smoke started coming out of the drives.
Success was a product that didn't crash, start a fire or lead to a nervous breakdown.
Writing software used to be hard, sort of like erecting a building used to be hundreds of years ago. When you set out to build an audacious building, there were real doubts about whether you might succeed. It was considered a marvel if your building was a little taller and didn't fall down. Now, of course, the hard part of real estate development has nothing to do with whether or not your building is going to collapse.
The same thing is true of software. It's a given that a professionally run project will create something that runs. Good (not great) software is a matter of will, mostly.
The question used to be: Does it run? That was enough, because software that worked was scarce.
Now, the amount of high utility freeware and useful free websites is soaring. Clearly, just writing a piece of software no longer makes it a business.
So if it's not about avoiding fatal bugs, what's the business of software?
At its heart, you need to imagine (and then execute) a business that just happens to involve a piece of software, because it's become clear that software alone isn't the point. There isn't a supply issue--it's about demand. The business of software is now marketing (which includes design).
The internet has transformed the software industry in two vaguely related ways:
1. It makes it far more efficient to communicate with people who might buy your software and,
2. It enables software's most powerful function: communication between users
Let's take them one at a time:
COMMUNICATE TO USERS: As we've seen in just about every industry, marketing involves effectively communicating a story about benefits to (and among) the people who will appreciate them. For software entrepreneurs, this means identifying a group of people who need the utility of what you can offer them and who are willing to give you permission to educate them about why they should buy. Without either element, the software is dead.
Over time, this permission becomes the core asset of the company. Selling upgrades, for example, is a great revenue path for software companies because of the ease of alerting current users about the upgrade.
I think niche opportunities for software are largely unexploited. There are countless tribes of people who would eagerly try and ultimately benefit from software optimized for their needs. A simple example: Firehouse.com is a website for firefighters. They have tens of thousands of members and hundreds of contributing writers and bloggers. Is it possible to imagine software that would help a fireman during a typical day? If you could, here's a group ready to listen.
The amplification of tens of thousands of tribal niches online creates a significant opportunity for specialized software worth paying for.
So, the questions I'd ask:
ENABLE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN USERS: This is the holy grail of software, and has been since multi-player games, email, ICQ and the web revolutionized the way we thought about computers.
It's hard to imagine, but twenty years ago, this is not what we thought about when we turned on a computer or went to the store to buy software. (Yes, the store--that's where you bought software). The purpose of software was to interact with a device, not another person. Old software had no network effect.
The network effect is the increased utility of a device that enables communication. One fax machine is useless, two are good, a thousand are a vital tool. One user of software is lonely, a million is a sea change in the way we communicate. Software enjoys a central role in the network effect--if you can improve productivity or satisfaction by connecting people, then people will selfishly help you do your marketing.
When building a software business that uses the network effect, I'd ask:
Worth taking a minute to think about that last question. eBay, for example, is a business because instead of developing an open protocol that would have enabled anyone to run an auction anywhere on any platform, Pierre Omidyar built a piece of software that was easy to use and open to changes in content--but required all the users to use his software. Compare that to the many pieces of software middleware that depend on Twitter content to work. Since the feed from Twitter is software independent, it's very difficult for a middleman to earn the privilege of charging much at all. The user can easily switch to a different middleman with little or no hassle.
What you're looking for in a connected world is a piece of software that sits in the middle of a sphere, enabling the user to make valuable connections, to build utility in a way that they couldn't without you. That's worth paying for and not worth switching out of.
LAST THING: Paying for it
In a competitive market where the marginal cost of an item is zero, the price will move to and eventually reach zero. If it doesn't cost you (or your competitors) anything to add one more user, then in a truly competitive market, there will be a race to add users, even if the next one doesn't add any revenue.
The goal, then, is to create a dynamic where the market isn't competitive. Back to the eBay example: copying the functionality of their software is now easy and cheap. You could probably build something way better, in fact. But switching is hugely expensive for the user, because all the buyers and all the sellers are there, not with you. It's not a competitive marketplace.
The other condition that's necessary, though, is that users have to believe that payment is an option. The web has trained the vast majority that interactions online should be free. That makes the act of selling software, particularly to people who haven't used it yet, really difficult.
There are two ways around this:
1. Free samples. Many software companies (37signals being an obvious one) have discovered the drug dealer model, in which the software is free for a month, connections are built, utility is created and then it begins to cost money.
2. Move to a platform where commerce is expected. They sell a lot of candy at bookstore cash registers, because wallets are already out and people are feeling in the mood for a treat to leaven their purchase of some intellectual tome. The app store for the iPad is like that. The expectation is that this software is going to cost money. It's far easier to sell a serious app for the iPad than it is on the web, because the platform is organized around commerce.
A long post, sure, but I wanted to help you realize that just because you can code something that doesn't mean it's a good idea. The issues of permission, of networks, of scarcity and of the desire to pay are inherent in the business part of the business of software. I think we're at the very beginning of the arc of software as business, and I can't wait to see what you come up with next.
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Japanese Politicians fed up with Deflation, Challenge BOJ Independence Posted: 04 Oct 2010 09:15 PM PDT Things are simmering once again in Japan. The Yen is approaching all-time highs and Japanese politicians have had enough of deflation. Another round of quantitative easing is now on the front burner. MarketWatch reports Bank of Japan may buy asset-backed paper Japan's central bank may announce plans to buy asset-backed securities when it issues its policy decision later Tuesday, the Nikkei business daily reported. The newspaper had reported earlier in the week that the Bank of Japan may expand its low-interest loans to financial institutions. But in the report Tuesday, the Nikkei said "a growing number of board members argue that the bank should go further" and begin buying securities backed by loans to small and medium-sized enterprises. The report, which didn't cite sources, said such a move would be aimed at making more funds available to the private sector.BOJ Independence Under Attack Bloomberg reports BOJ Independence Challenged as Deflation Continues Increasing risks to Japan's recovery prompted what may become the biggest threat yet to the Bank of Japan's independence as politicians seek to redress its failure to end the deflation entrenched in the economy since 1998.Bank Balance Sheets Compared ZeroHedge Asks Is The BOJ Preparing An Imminent Announcement Of Its Own Latest (And Certainly Not Greatest) QE? The BOJ's balance sheet, which has been relatively flat when compared to peer central banks, especially since FX interventions will likely be sterilized, is about to explode and the JPY will plunge once the carry traders reorient themselves to shorting the original carry currency of choice.Politicians Know This Time is Different! It's hard not to laugh out loud at the sarcasm in the last paragraph above. Not only did QE fail to do what the Bank of Japan wanted (raise prices), QE has also failed to stimulate bank lending as Bernanke wants. Moreover, Japan's currency intervention efforts have not accomplished anything, ever. But yeah... this time is different, because .... politicians know better! By the way, this exercise in stupidity by all the central banks in question, shows just how hard it is to destroy a currency, even when you try (except against gold of course). Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Analysts Cut S&P 500 Profits Forecast; Earnings Estimates Still Overly Optimistic; Stocks Not Cheap Posted: 04 Oct 2010 12:28 PM PDT Bloomberg reports S&P 500 Profits Cut for First Time in Year by Analysts. For the first time in more than a year analysts are cutting their forecasts for Standard & Poor's 500 Index earnings, jeopardizing gains from the biggest September rally since World War II.Earnings Estimates A Mirage It's important to understand why earnings have gone up: Trillions of dollars of stimulus worldwide that is not sustainable. Bank earnings estimates have been inflated by massive extend-and-pretend games encouraged by the Fed with a blind eye from the FASB. Moreover, the FASB has delayed mark-to-market accounting rules and has still not forced banks to bring SIVs and off-balance-sheet assets back on the books. Those assets are held at inflated values. It is disgusting to hear those like Michael Levine of OppenheimerFunds Inc. says "equities are cheap". Equities only look cheap if you use absurd forward earnings estimates, and ignore future writeoffs and other "one-time" items that seem to have a way of recurring with remarkable regularity. Stocks Not Cheap Stocks are not cheap an besides, share prices are not always a direct function of earnings. I talked about that in Sure Thing?! Earnings vs. Share PricesFancy Numbers "You need pretty fancy GDP numbers to get to $95 a share in earnings next year," said Robert Doll, vice chairman of New York-based BlackRock Inc., which oversees $3.2 trillion. "Our view is that they're still a little too high, and that nobody believes them." Robert Doll is half-right. He's right in that "You need more that fancy earnings to get to $95 a share". He's half-right because the consensus believes. Bear in mind we could still see a bit of earnings expansion, but with the inventory replenishment and stimulus coming to an end, and with consumers heading back into a shell, it will not be sustainable. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Factory Orders Drop More Than Expected, Treasuries Rally Posted: 04 Oct 2010 10:42 AM PDT Curve Watchers Anonymous notes the rally in treasuries continues in the wake of the third decline in four months in factory orders and expectations of renewed Quantitative Easing by the Fed. Yield Curve July 2008 - Present ![]() click on chart for sharper image Two-year (not shown above) and five-year treasuries are at record lows. Factory Orders Drop More Than Expected The Wall Street Journal reports Factory Orders Decline U.S. factory orders dropped more than expected in August, marking the third decline in the last four months.That is a very weak report with inventories rising and nearly everything important falling or flat. Durable Goods Drop Should Not Have Surprised Anyone The drop in durable goods may have surprised some but it is consistent with my July 7th post Expect Second-Half Housing and Durable Goods Crash This should have been pretty easy to figure out. If people stop buying houses, and they have, then people will not be buying many appliances for the houses they did not buy. Moreover, autos are big ticket items and with sentiment souring on job prospects, one might have anticipated the auto recovery (as weak as it was), would also stall. Rear View Mirror Look Please note that today's report is a look in the rear view mirror. Today's factory orders report reflects August data. October ISM Recap - Looking Ahead Let's recap a few charts from Manufacturing ISM Expands, Rate Slows, Internals Weak September ISM Manufacturing at a GlanceMore Downward Surprises Coming Today's Factory Orders report (for August) along with the October ISM report (September data as shown above) is further evidence the glowing September ISM report (August data) was an outlier. Expect to see more downward surprises as the vast majority of economists do not understand the implications of the recent ISM data, or the meaninglessness of the Fed's renewed quantitative easing plans. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Why Most Conference Presentations Suck Posted: 03 Oct 2010 02:00 PM PDT Posted by willcritchlow Normally, I tend towards the uncontroversial when I write. I haven't been the author of many posts that have caused debate. But I've had enough. I need to speak up. Most conference presentations suckThere. I said it. I remember being amazed (and, back then, pretty heartened) when I went to my first SEO conference and realised I already knew most of what was being said. Amazement turned to disappointment at my second conference, which was billed as "Advanced" and where the same old basics were trotted out by too many of the speakers. Since then, I've been to hundreds of presentations. I've learnt a lot, but from a surprisingly small proportion of them. (Thank you to those speakers who consistently turn out the excellent stuff!). I'm no exceptionThis is as much a criticism of myself as anyone else. Looking back, there are some presentations I've given that make me cringe now (especially early ones). Early on in my speaking career, it wasn't necessarily that I phoned them in. I was suitably scared / motivated to do a good job - I think I just didn't know how. More recently, I think it's probably happened when I agreed to talk on a subject I didn't really know enough about. I'm definitely trying to learn that lesson. So before I go any further, if you've had to sit through one of my presentations and learnt nothing, I'm sorry. If it happens in future, email me and tell me (my contact details are easy to find and always on my last slide). I'm a strong believer in the idea that you should praise in public and criticise in private so I'm not asking you to tear presentations apart on Twitter. I'd love it if we saw more strong praise of great presentations, and more honest private feedback to speakers and organisers when they haven't delivered the goods. Basic has its placeBefore I go any further, I wanted to point out that I am often called upon to give "SEO 101" type presentations and these wouldn't teach any of you anything. I hope this doesn't mean that they are bad presentations. It's all about knowing the level of the audience I guess. This rant is squarely aimed at "advanced" presentations of one form or another. Delivery is important, but it's not a substitute for contentIf you start googling "how to give a great presentation", you'll find masses of advice on slide design, how to speak at the right speed, the kind of opening line to use, what to wear etc. All of this stuff can help, but I would I do like listening to great speakers and entertaining presentation does improve things, but there are better places than SEO conferences to go for stand-up comedy, so generally, I'm there to learn things. You can get away with slightly weaker content if your delivery is awesome but please remember this highly scientific chart: And you know what? I don't even care if it's a sales pitch if you are teaching me stuff. It sets the bar higher and I'm more likely to criticise you if you pitch your own stuff without teaching me anything, but if you do teach me stuff, you can bet I'm going to check out whatever you're hawking. By content, I mean new stuffIn the past, just to avoid embarrassing myself, I have:
Don't worry about being too advancedThat's what Google is for. Give me the ideas and the data that I couldn't get anywhere else. If there's terminology I'm not familiar with or you skip over something too quickly, I can easily do my own research. But please don't spend half an hour telling a room full of experts what Google Insights is. Why should you bother?At the Seattle mozinar, I gave a presentation on "how to pitch SEO". One of my core themes was that the best way to win business is to avoid competitive pitches by giving yourself an unfair advantage. Being known for being smart is one of those advantages. If people get to know you through learning from your presentations, you will find yourself in a disproportionate number of uncompetitive pitches... Just sayin'. Recipe for success: SpeakersAt Distilled, I have been thrilled to see great first-time presentations from our guys - this isn't something that only comes with experience. For example, Sam's Advanced Keyword Research presentation at SMX London was more highly rated than those of many more experienced speakers including mine. In advance of the show, Sam asked Tom and I to run through our secret recipe. It's actually pretty simple - just follow these steps:
If you need a little bit more incentive to be awesome, I've found that having a head to head competition and then a vote at the end of your session (thanks Rand!) is a good way to make you up your game. Recipe for success: OrganisersThis rant is mainly aimed at speakers, who I think are the primary culprits, but for organisers, while I realise that larger conferences especially don't want to micro-manage every session the way Rand and I have been for the Pro training seminars, can I beg for one small thing?
Everyone runs those follow-up surveys and knows which speakers were loved by the audiences and who phoned it in. Please stop inviting people back if they don't want to teach things to the attendees. [Rand wrote a whole post a while back with his thoughts on this from an organiser's perspective]. Rand and I actually tend to harangue our speakers with instructions a little bit like those above asking them to bring their 'A' games. Beyond a certain point, it hopefully gathers momentum because no-one wants to be the guy giving the sales pitch when everyone else's presentation is rocking. At the beginning of September (almost two months before the show), I had a call with every speaker for the London Pro seminar to help shape what they were going to talk about and make sure that they are bringing their secrets. It's not too late to get in on the action and see the result of all that hard work: There are still tickets left for the London Pro SEO seminarIt's lucky that we have a bigger venue this year. We passed last year's total (sold out) sales a few weeks ago and unfortunately all the VIP breakfast tickets are gone, but there are still tickets left at the time of writing. Like last year, we anticipate that there will be a rush of bookings as the date approaches so it is likely that we will sell out. If you are wanting to come and see me put my money where my mouth is (yes, I'm feeling the pressure a little bit after writing this) don't leave it too late to book: The Details: If you are an SEOmoz PRO member, you can get access to special pricing by using the code in the discount store - making it a steal at £499 +VAT / person. You can read a sneak preview of the event that I wrote a few weeks ago to get an idea of the kinds of things that you will see there. |
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