marți, 14 iunie 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


Does Google Use Facebook Shares to Influence Search Rankings?

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 02:37 PM PDT

Posted by Matt Peters

Intro from Rand - this post comes from Dr. Matt Peters, SEOmoz's data scientist. He came on board in February of this year after stints at Harvard (working on climate science models), Washington Mutual, JP Morgan and Fannie Mae (analyzing mortgage securities) and more (including some research into Google Places rankings last November). Matt's particularly passionate about bringing the best practices of scientific and quantitative analysis to the world of inbound marketing, and I'm very excited to welcome him to the Moz community.


One of the most interesting findings from our 2011 Ranking Factors analysis was the high correlation between Facebook shares and Google US search position. In fact, Facebook shares was the highest correlated single factor among the 100+ factors we examined:

Facebook and other social media correlations with Google search position

This blog post presents some modeling results that look at whether Google may be using Facebook shares directly in it's relevance calculation, or whether the correlation between Facebook shares and search position is coincidental, aka the byproduct of other causal factors.

Correlation and Causation

As we have said time and time again on this blog, in our presentations and when speaking, correlation is not causation. However, this post will discuss issues of both correlation and causation, so for the purposes of this discussion it's important to understand the relationship between them on a deeper level. Correlation does not, in general, imply causation. However, two things that are causally related will often be well correlated. Correlation can therefore only be used to support or deny causation, but not to show it directly. Put another way, if we have some prior, a priori, reason to believe that two things are related, correlation can be used as a tool (with rigorous statistical underpinnings) to support the relationship. In turn, weak correlation can be used to weaken the argument that two things are related.

Before we started our work on the 2011 Ranking Factors, we had some reasons to believe that Facebook data may be used by Google. There was an interview with Google/Bing in December 2010 where they disclosed that they were using social media signals in to rank search results. We also began seeing Facebook share information in our search results, so we knew that Google had access to at least some Facebook data.

Facebook share data appears in Google web search results

Even having this public comment from Google and seeing the Facebook data in search results (you can also observe them in Google realtime, e.g. here), we were still surprised at the size of the correlation in our ranking factor result and we wondered whether it was causal or the result of other factors like links. As a simple check, we ran some hasty partial correlations to control for links and concluded that they accounted for some of the correlation, but not all. This appeared to be another data point to support causation, or so we thought...

SMX Advanced

At SMX Advanced in Seattle last week, Rand Fishkin presented the main results from the ranking factors work, including the partial correlations controlling for links. We were still not confident that Facebook shares were being used directly, so Rand was very careful to add several caveats saying that these might not be causally related. You can see his presentation embedded below: 

That evening, Matt Cutts, the head of Google's web spam team said that they do not crawl Facebook "wall" pages and implied that they don't use Facebook shares for ranking. His language was somewhat vague (leaving room open as to whether some forms of Facebook data are used or come via a special feed), however we and many others felt that Matt had implied that Facebook shares, specifically, are not part of their web ranking algorithm. Rand pointed out that Google does have some access to Facebook data overall and set up a small-scale test to determine if Google would index content that was solely shared on Facebook. To date, that page has not been indexed, despite having quite a few shares (64 according to the OpenGraph).

Both Rand and Matt's talks and the subsequent discussion with Danny Sullivan on Twitter was well covered over at Search Engine Land

Sitting in the audience, I began to think about the implications of this new information. If Google wasn't using Facebook shares, then the high correlation must be explainable with things that they are using. I made a short list of different factors that Google might be using to determine relevance that would also be correlated with FB shares:

  • Links. Pages that are heavily shared on Facebook tend to also be heavily linked to.
  • Other social media signals. Pages that are shared on Facebook also tend to be tweeted about and shared through Google Buzz.
  • Quality content. People share pages that they find interesting and have high quality content. This drives positive usage signals (time spent on page, bounce rate, etc) that might be used.
  • Association with well known, quality brands. There is likely more interaction with well known brands then lesser known brands, and this might drive deeper engagement with them on Facebook.

Building a better model for Facebook shares

I thought back to the partial correlations I had run a few months prior. At the time, I was mainly interested in a first look that could be done in a few hours, so I chose partial correlations using a limited set of four metrics from Linkscape as the control variables. Partial correlations use a linear regression model to predict the correlation variables (in this case Facebook shares and search position), the simplest type of regression model. It has the benefit be being well established and easy to use, but falls short when the underlying relationship is more complicated or non-linear. In addition, I didn't try to control for other social media signals since at the time we were interested in links.

I began to wonder if the results would change if I tried a more complicated model using Twitter/Google Buzz and all the available link metrics from Linkscape so I set out to build the model. Before describing the model, it's important to write down our modeling assumptions. They are:

  • Google uses link metrics for ranking, similar to those available in our Linkscape API.
  • Google uses other social media data, in particular Tweets and Google Buzz shares to rank.

We are testing whether Facebook shares provide any increase in predictive power beyond these factors.

To build the model, I took a subset of the full dataset used in the ranking factors report (scrubbed for data quality, but otherwise unchanged). The baseline mean Spearman correlation between search position and Facebook shares in this data is 0.30. Then I took all 61 keyword agnostic link metrics used in the ranking factors and (1) ran them through a generic filter to transform them to something close to Gaussian and (2) did a principal component analysis and kept the first 19 principal components that explain 99% of the variability in the original data. This allows me to use a complicated non-linear model without worrying about collinearity issues. I augmented the 19 principal components with three social media metrics, namely the number of Tweets and Topsy Influential metrics from Topsy and the number of Google Buzz shares.

I used a two step process to fit the actual model. First, about 33% of the URLs don't have any Facebook shares and the rest have at least one share. Fitting a regression model to a distribution with a big spike at 0 is generally not a good idea, so I first fit a binary classifier to the cases for 0 / 1 or more shares. Then, I fit a non-linear regression model to the remaining data with at least one share. Over fitting was controlled through cross-validation. The total predicted number of shares can be computed from the output of these two pieces.

The final model performs moderately well, with the correlation coefficient between actual and predicted shares at 0.73. However, the mean Spearman correlation between the predicted number of shares and search position is 0.27, nearly as large as the baseline 0.30. This strongly suggests that our interpretation of Matt Cutts' statement is correct and Google is not using Facebook share data directly to rank.

Takeaways

  • Facebook shares, at least as related to Google searches, act as a sort of "super-metric", encompassing a variety of different factors (similar to SEOmoz's Page Authority and Domain Authority).
  • Don't stop sharing and generating brand engagement through Facebook!  Driving deeper engagement through social media can only help your brand and likely has other positive benefits (by generating tweets or links, for example).
  • Earning Facebook shares (probably) will not directly boost your Google rankings (though it may have positive effects that indirectly promote links, tweets and other signals Google may use).
  • The process of doing this type of correlation work and sharing the results openly started a great dialogue in the search community, and through that we all learned more about how search works. We plan to do more work like this, and are planning a project for the Fall to compare Google and Bing results.

Finally, I'd like to thank Danny Sullivan and Matt Cutts for sparking this work through their discussion at SMX Advanced.


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Seth's Blog : Summer reading, 2011

Summer reading, 2011

By request, here's a grab bag of books you might not have read yet.

PS congratulations to my friend Steve on the publication of The Profession.

 

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Anafore Customer Referral Program Review Graywolf's SEO Blog

Anafore Customer Referral Program Review Graywolf's SEO Blog


Anafore Customer Referral Program Review

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 10:34 AM PDT

Post image for Anafore Customer Referral Program Review

The following review is a sponsored post for Anafore Customer Referral Program.

Anafore customer referral program is an email add on that merchants or online stores can use to incentivize customers to share promotional offers with their friends in exchange for their own promotional offers. Basically, when a customer completes an order, it sends them an email asking them to forward this offer (like a 10% discount). For every person who converts, they get a a promotion (like 15% off their next order).

The system is really easy to set up. Basically you set up a custom subdomain to use for tracking, upload your logo, setup the discount message, and install a tracking script on your system. Screen shots of the setup below (click to enlarge)

 

When a customer completes an order, they give you a secret email to forward the customer info to them, and then either right away or on a delay you send them the email containing the referral offer. You have to program your shopping cart to take care of the discount; Anafore only handles the email and tracking. If you are using Amazon Webstore, Big Cartel, Etsy, Majento, Shopify or Volusion, they provide you with links during setup to get the offer set up properly.

Anafore Cart Options

Anafore tracks how many offers you sent, when you sent them, how many were opened and when, who are the biggest referrers, who are the biggest sharers and lots of other stats. I was running an imaginary campaign, so the numbers are low.

Anafore Tracking Dashboard

The system is really easy to set up and get information out of. If you are using one of the above mentioned platforms, integration is really easy. You can use your own ecommerce system. If you do, you will just need to set up the offers and take care of the data exchange, but it’s not too complicated. They do offer one month risk free; after that, it’s 65 cents per click. My suggestion would be not to trigger the campaign until the customer’s order is approved or ships–this way, you don’t end up paying for leads from deadbeats.

Creating a referral loyalty program is a really good idea. Your current customers are always your best leads, and giving them an incentive to share with their friends is a very good idea. The system is extremely easy to set up and, to be honest, I can’t see it taking more than an afternoon to implement. At 65 cents per click, it’s almost a no brainer unless you are working with extremely low-priced merchandise. You can customize your offers and presentation however you like, although my suggestion is to keep it as simple as possible. You can learn more about customization on the FAQWith a one month risk free offer, it’s hard to go wrong, so give Anafore a try.

The preceding has been a sponsored post. Find out more information about sponsored posts.

photo credit: Shutterstock

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Related posts:

  1. 5 Ways to Get More Customer Referrals Every business will probably agree that customer referrals are awesome! ...
  2. Constant Contact Review – Email Program In an earlier post (see Bridging the Gap Between Email...
  3. How To Get Customer Reviews on Your Website While UGC and Reviews can often be a mixed blessing,...
  4. Google Adsense for Video Beta Program Perhaps you’ve heard of the Google Adsense for video ads....
  5. New Link Advertising Program InLinks.com from Text Link Ads Yesterday, Text-Link-Ads launched a new service InLinks, that places ads...

Advertisers:

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  2. BOTW.org - Get a premier listing in the internet's oldest directory.
  3. Ezilon.com Regional Directory - Check to see if your website is listed!
  4. Need an SEO Audit for your website, look at my SEO Consulting Services
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This post originally came from Michael Gray who is an SEO Consultant. Be sure not to miss the Thesis Wordpress Theme review.

Anafore Customer Referral Program Review

Why is there a rock wall on the South Lawn?

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Tuesday, June 14, 2011
 

Photo of the Day

 

Kids climb a rock wall during a Let's Move! South Lawn Series event on the South Lawn of the White House, June 13, 2011. The series, which invites students from Washington, D.C., area sports leagues and community programs to participate in a variety of physical activities, will last through the summer. (Official White House Photo by David Lienemann)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

Vice President Biden to Take on Making Government More Accountable
Vice President Biden announces that the President has asked him to take on a new role holding the Cabinet accountable for cutting waste in their agencies as part of the Administration’s ongoing effort to make government more accountable to the American people.

President Obama Presented Ideas to Accelerate Job Growth and America's Competitiveness at Jobs Council Meeting
President Obama travels to Durham, NC to meet with the Jobs and Competitiveness Council at the corporate and U.S. manufacturing headquarters of Cree, a leading manufacturer of energy efficient LED lighting.

Connecting with Personal Finance Sites
The White House gathered together twenty-four financial journalists for an in-depth discussion on economic policies at the first Personal Finance Online Summit.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

9:30 AM: The President departs Miami, Florida en route San Juan, Puerto Rice

11:45 AM: The President arrive in San Juan, Puerto Rico

11:55 AM: The President delivers brief remarks at a welcome event WhiteHouse.gov/live

12:55 PM: The President visits La Fortaleza

2:00 PM: The Vice President holds the next meeting of the bipartisan, bicameral group of Members of Congress to continue work on a legislative framework for comprehensive deficit reduction

2:55 PM: The President is interviewed by El Nuevo Dia and Univision of Puerto Rico

3:50 PM: The President attends a DNC event

4:40 PM: The President departs San Juan, Puerto Rico

8:05 PM: The President arrives at Joint Base Andrews

WhiteHouse.gov/live  Indicates events that will be live streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live


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Seth's Blog : In praise of programming

In praise of programming

Not computer programming, which is important, but content programming.

Someone decides what to put on the radio after that song you just heard. Someone realizes that Conan needs to do more than just tell standup. Someone decides that if every tweet is just like the tweet you just sent, it's boring.

We're all programmers now. We all have to decide what to post next, what to point to next, what to launch next. Is there a skill in dreaming up Must-See Thursday nights, or in establishing a season of Shakespeare or even in deciding what's on the special list at the restaurant? I think there is.

Yes, you must do great work. You also need to figure out how to program for your audience, even if the audience is only one person.

 

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luni, 13 iunie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Rosenberg Says 99% Chance of Another Recession by 2012

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 12:31 PM PDT

In a Bloomberg video David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, says there is a 99% Chance of Another Recession by 2012. Rosenberg also talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy.



Selected Quotes


Bloomberg: How Certain are you that we may be headed for a recession

Rosenberg: I think that by 2012, I would give it a 99% chance. I say that because as an economist, you have to be part historian. When you have a manufacturing inventory cycle recession, they are usually separated 5 years apart. But when you have a balance sheet recession, credit contraction, asset deflation (for example residential real estate), the downturn tends to be separated every 2 to 2.5 years. ... Economists call this a soft patch. It's not like this is a soft patch. Basically, when all the stimulus is gone, you get to see what the emperor looks like disrobed. It's not a pretty picture.

No Double Dip

Rosenberg goes on to say it's a second recession, not a "double dip" and more stimulus is coming once the "Fed sees the white eyes of the economy".

Given that there is no incentive in Congress for more stimulus (nor should there be), Bernanke will have a tougher time, this time, unless there is a significant drop in oil and food prices.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Trichet's Twisted Mind Fights the Oil Monster Alone

Posted: 13 Jun 2011 08:54 AM PDT

I cannot help but laugh at the latest nonsense out of ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet. Please consider Trichet: Need to prevent oil-fed inflation spiral.
Speaking at an event organized by the London School of Economics, Trichet said the recent surge in energy and commodity costs had driven the sharp increase in headline euro zone inflation over the last year.

"In those circumstances, the central bank must prevent increases in the prices of raw materials from being incorporated into the long-term inflation expectations which could trigger second round effects on wages and prices," he said.

"Unemployment at 9.9 percent of the labor force remains much too high, and structural reforms are of the essence to make the euro area economy much more flexible and to elevate its growth potential," he said.
Inflation Expectation Theory is Nonsense

There is not a damn thing the ECB or anyone else can do about peak oil. There is nothing the ECB can do about rapidly expanding credit in China. There is nothing the ECB can do about misguided QE policies in the US.

But most importantly, this entire notion of "inflation expectations" is nonsense. It's time for a recap of Miracle of Survival and Falling Inflation Expectations.

Bear in mind what follows was written in response to misguided Fed worries about deflation (falling, not rising, inflation expectations). The same applies in either direction as I shall get to in a moment, but first consider this snip regarding falling inflation expectations.

Miracle of Survival and Falling Inflation Expectations
Series of Questions

  • If your refrigerator conks out, will you buy a new one or wait 6 months to take advantage of lower prices?
  • If the transmission on your car fails will you wait 6 months to get it fixed?
  • If your pantry is bare, will you wait 1 month to buy food even if you expect food prices to drop?
  • If you need a new winter coat, will you wait and if so, how long?

The answer to that last question is "Perhaps for a bit, but you will not wait 3 years even if you expect prices will be even lower 3 years from now."

Miracle of Survival

Today I received an even better example from "Chris" who writes...

Hello Mish

The best argument in your "winter coat" deflation comparison is consumer electronics. Everyone knows that as soon as they buy something from the consumer electronics department the price next month will go down or the same product will be offered with more bells and whistles for the same price. Yet by some miracle Best Buy seems to survive!

Thus, the next time you hear the Fed or some parrot taking about the importance of inflation expectations and how people will hold off buying stuff if they expect prices to fall, please calmly ask them how the hell Best Buy stays in business, making a huge profit on hundreds of stores, selling merchandise that will undoubtedly be lower in price in a few months.

According to the incredibly silly "inflation expectations" model, Best Buy cannot possibly exist, so it must be a miracle that it not only exists, but thrives.
To show that inflation expectation is nonsense in both directions please consider the following questions.

Rising Inflation Expectations Questions

  • If your refrigerator is working, will you buy another one out of fear prices are going up?
  • If you have a nice winter coat will you buy another one out of fear of rising prices?
  • If your freezer and pantry are full, will you buy more food with nowhere to store it?
  • Other than your car, do you have a place to store oil?

Businesses may buy ahead of price increases, but no more than they have room to store raw materials. Consumers may stock their freezers but only at the expense of something else they will then not have money to buy.

The only time people get in a mad rush to dump currency is in periods of hyperinflation or when credit is expanding rapidly. Well credit is not expanding rapidly, consumers are deep in debt and deleveraging.

Given constant supply of money and credit, if consumers stock up on one thing it is a mathematical certainty they will have to cut back elsewhere.

Why Do Prices Rise?

Prices do not rise out of expectations; prices rise out of increased money supply and credit (or supply constraints such as peak oil). If prices rise as a result of supply shocks, even peak oil, prices have to fall somewhere else, if money supply and credit are constant.

Wage growth is anemic. Credit is anemic. Fears of an inflation spiral as a result of rising "inflation expectations" is nonsensical.

No Winning Solution For Trichet

I am not saying Trichet shouldn't hike. I am saying his explanation is piss poor. Quite frankly he is trapped in a One Size Fits Germany Policy on interest rates. There are no solutions given the widely varying economic problems of Euro-Zone countries.

The ultimate irony in Trichet's madness is he proclaims to be worried about inflation, yet promised "unlimited liquidity" at 1.5%. Are we to believe a hike from 1.25 to 1.5 percent will cure the inflation problem, so much so that the ECB can continue offering "unlimited liquidity"?

Apparently not, given Trichet wants to hike rates to contain the "inflation expectations" of his own "unlimited liquidity" policy.

Is that twisted or what?

Please see Confused Trichet Walks Tightrope on Liquidity, Rate Hikes, Greece; Reflections on Unexpected Things for more details.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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