Central Perk

duminică, 27 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Spain's Plans to Recapitalize Bankia Will Put Germany, ECB at Risk; When Does the Ponzi Scheme Collapse?
Greece Public Finances Face Collapse as Money Stuffed in Mattresses; Swiss Eye Capital Controls as Money Pours into Switzerland; Understatement of the Month
April New Home Sales: The Hype vs. The Reality

Spain's Plans to Recapitalize Bankia Will Put Germany, ECB at Risk; When Does the Ponzi Scheme Collapse?

Posted: 27 May 2012 08:17 PM PDT

Inquiring minds are interested in the recapitalization plans for the Bankia. Please consider this chain of posts.

ABC News reports Spain's Bankia set for massive bailout.

Spain's fourth-biggest bank Bankia says it is certain of securing the 19 billion euros ($24 billion) in state aid it is seeking in the largest bank bailout in the country's history.

Bankia is considered key to the country's financial system, and a failure would contaminate the entire banking sector.

The plight of Bankia - which holds some 10 per cent of the nation's bank deposits - has added to the concerns over the massive debt crisis gripping Spain and the rest of the eurozone.

Bankia president Jose Ignacio Goirigolzarri has sought to reassure investors and the public about the future of the struggling bank at a press conference called the day after it announced huge losses, and asked for a government rescue.

"I am certain that the Spanish state will obtain the financing so we will receive the 19 billion euros. That's the commitment," said Mr Goirigolzarri, adding that he expected to get the funds in July.

Devil in the Details

Inquiring minds just may be asking "Just where is this money coming from?" That's a good question.

Reuters reports Spain may recapitalize Bankia with government debt.

Spain may recapitalize Bankia with Spanish government bonds in return for shares in the bank which last week asked for rescue funding of 19 billion euros ($24 billion), a government source said on Sunday.

Bankia could use the sovereign paper as collateral to get cash from the European Central Bank, forcing the ECB to get involved with restructuring Spain's banking sector, laid low by lending to property developers in a boom that ended in 2008.

ECB policymakers, who have pumped over 1 trillion euros into Europe's financial system in recent months, are resisting pressure to do more to shore up the euro zone.

"The biggest problem here is that the ECB could object. That's a legal issue, but technically it is possible," said Jose Carlos Diez, economist at Intermoney Valores.

Ponzi Financing

Got That? A Spanish government source says the plan is float what amounts to junk bonds, pawn them off to the ECB and use the proceeds to "recapitalize" Bankia.

Of course the ECB (bankrolled by Germany) is at enormous risk were this preposterous scheme to actually happen.

This is what I want to know: When does Germany say it has had enough of these preposterous schemes?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greece Public Finances Face Collapse as Money Stuffed in Mattresses; Swiss Eye Capital Controls as Money Pours into Switzerland; Understatement of the Month

Posted: 27 May 2012 02:56 PM PDT

Lucas Papademos, the ex-technocrat prime minister of Greece says public finances face collapse.

Greece's public finances could collapse as early as next month, leaving salaries and pensions unpaid unless a stable government emerges from the June 17 election, according to Lucas Papademos, the technocrat prime minister who left office after this month's inconclusive vote.

Mr Papademos warned that conditions were deteriorating faster than expected with cash flow likely to turn negative in early June amid a sharp fall in tax revenues and a loosening of spending controls during two back-to-back election campaigns.

Mounting anxiety that Greece is headed for further political instability and a possible exit from the euro has prompted many Greeks to postpone making tax payments, and has also accelerated outflows of deposits from local banks.

Athens bankers estimate that more than €3bn of cash withdrawn since the May 6 election has been stashed in safe-deposit boxes and under mattresses in case the country is forced to readopt the drachma.

The finance ministry has halted repayment of value-added tax to Greek exporters, and slashed public investment spending by more than 20 per cent in the first four months.

Transfers to the health ministry to pay debts owed to hospital suppliers and pharmacies have been temporarily suspended, obliging patients to pay the full cost of prescription drugs for the first time.

The struggling state electricity utility PPC has received a €250m special payment from the budget to help cover a widening deficit. The utility has been hit by a sharp rise in non-payments of household electricity bills after the finance ministry imposed an extra "solidarity tax" last year that was added to the bills.

Understatement of the Month

"The situation is getting out of hand," said a private sector economist. Really? It seems to me things got out of hand long ago.

Swiss Eye Capital Controls as Money Pours into Switzerland

While some stuff money in mattresses, others pour money into Swiss Francs. In response Swiss eye capital controls.

The Swiss National Bank is considering imposing capital controls on foreign deposits if Greece leaves the euro, as the franc comes under heavy demand from investors seeking a haven in Europe.

The Swiss franc has come under increasing pressure since the Greek elections at the start of the month. Currency traders have reported unusually high levels of franc buying in response to the problems in the eurozone, which has seen the euro slide to its lowest level in nearly two years.

"We're preparing ourselves for turbulent times," Mr Thomas Jordan [head of the Swiss central bank] said in an interview with SonntagsZeitung, a Swiss newspaper.

"The situation has become worse in the past few weeks and the outlook has become much more uncertain. We're seeing a clear upward pressure on the franc," he told the newspaper. "Investors are looking for a safe haven. For many, that includes the franc."

I have said this before numerous times but it is worth repeating: If you have money in Greek, Spanish, or Portuguese banks, get it out now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

April New Home Sales: The Hype vs. The Reality

Posted: 27 May 2012 07:51 AM PDT

Check out some of the headlines a few day ago following new home sales reports.

Detroit Free Press: April new-home sales increase 3.3%, pointing to recovery

"Americans bought more new homes last month, the latest evidence that the U.S. housing market could be starting to recover."

Fox Business News: US New-Home Sales Up 3.3% In April; Prices Rise In March

"Sales of newly built homes in the U.S. grew faster than expected in April and home prices posted a solid gain the prior month, adding to the increasing momentum for the long-struggling sector."

New York Times: New-Home Sales Climbed in April, Building Optimism

"The spring home-selling season got off to a strong start in April, the Commerce Department said Wednesday, with rising sales and prices providing evidence that a housing market recovery was gaining some traction."

San Francisco Chronicle: New-home sales rise in April

"Americans bought more new homes last month, the latest evidence that the U.S. housing market could be starting to recover."

The Hype vs. The Reality

After all that hype, let's take a look at the reality. To eliminate seasonal fluctuations, the best comparison is the current month vs. the same month in previous years.

Here is a chart from reader Tim Wallace that shows what I mean.

click on chart for sharper image

Being the ever-optimist, I happen to believe that home sales are in a bottoming process. However, a bottoming process and a "recovery" are not the same thing. A claim that a recovery is underway needs to be backed up with facts, not hype.

There is little evidence of a recovery.

We have heard similar recovery stories (all false), dozens if not hundreds of times. All were based on wishful thinking, gimmicks, temporary fluctuations, and shoddy reporting similar to what you see above.

Supposedly the "recovery gains traction". Pray tell what "recovery" is that?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Emergency room doctors

Emergency room doctors

It's a mindset, not just a job.

You can pitch them as hard as you like about having them work to persuade their patients to give up smoking (after all, it saves lives in the long run), but I think you'll find that they're a lot more interested in stopping the bleeding.

We need emergency room doctors, no doubt. I just wonder if we have too many of them in your organization. If all we do is reward fast first aid in what people do at work, is it any wonder we don't have enough attention to the strategy and choices that would eliminate the need for all that running around in the first place?

It helps to know how prevalent the "emergency room" culture is before you start training your people on a new long-term strategy.

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sâmbătă, 26 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Gaffe? What Gaffe? Greek Polls? All Over the Place

Posted: 26 May 2012 10:50 PM PDT

I am amused by the Financial Times headline Tsipras shrugs off gaffe about Hollande.

When Evangelos Venizelos, the Greek socialist leader, boarded a 7.30am flight to Paris on Tuesday, only his closest aides knew he was on the way to a hastily arranged meeting with the French president.

The last-minute invitation to meet François Hollande came after Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the radical left coalition Syriza and Greece's new political star, caused a stir in Paris with a typically blunt put-down of the French leader.

Mr Tsipras, whose Syriza party surged to second place in Greece's May 6 general election, advised that Mr Hollande stick to moderate policies, or risk being abandoned by voters as "Hollan-dreou".

The reference to George Papandreou, the Greek socialist premier forced to resign after rowing back on pre-election promises and accepting the harsh bailout terms imposed by international creditors, was "very poorly timed", said a Greek diplomat, noting that French parliamentary elections are due on June 10.

Syriza denied that the comments constituted a gaffe, and pointed out that members of the French far-left had used the "Hollan-dreou" phrase before Mr Tsipras.

However, the jokey comments at the expense of France's socialist president may have also clouded the young Greek leader's visit to Berlin, the next stage of his trip. There, the left-of-centre German politicians who met with Mr Tsipras insisted that Greece must implement reforms agreed under the bailout if it wanted to stay in the eurozone, refusing to countenance Syriza's demand for a renegotiation of the deal.

Gaffe? What Gaffe?

For his statement to be a gaffe, Tsipras would have to care. Instead, he is laughing to the voting booth. Being snubbed by Merkel and and Hollande plays into his hands as I suggested earlier today.

Some recent polls have shown New Democracy back into the lead but the Financial Times continues with ...

Yet the firebrand leader's travails abroad did not appear to have dented his popularity at home. While polls suggest that Mr Tsipras is viewed as the politician most responsible for blocking the formation last week of a coalition government – an outcome that more than 60 per cent of Greeks would have preferred to a fresh election – Syriza nevertheless increased its support by two points this week, to 30 per cent.

The Financial Times article is as of May 25, 2012 11:21 pm. So, if Tsipras made a gaffe, pray tell where is it?

Note the irony of Hollande refusing to meet with Tsipras, just as Merkel refused to meet with Hollande until Hollande defeated Sarkozy.

Greek Polls? All Over the Place

Bear in mind there are numerous conflicting polls. Reuters reports Greek pro-bailout conservatives regain lead.

Greece's conservatives have regained an opinion poll lead that would allow the formation of a pro-bailout government committed to keeping the country in the euro zone, a batch of new surveys showed on Saturday.

Greece was forced to call repeat elections for June 17 after a May 6 vote left parliament divided evenly between groups of parties that support and oppose the austerity conditions attached to a 130 billion euro bailout agreed with the European Union and International Monetary Fund in March.

Polls up to Saturday had showed pro- and anti-bailout parties running neck-and-neck ahead of the vote which could determine the country's future in the single currency.

Five polls published in the weekend press showed the conservative New Democracy party, which supports the bailout, with a lead of between 0.5 and 5.7 points over the anti-bailout leftist SYRIZA party - though analysts said the race was still too close to call.

I suspect but cannot prove the poll cited by the Financial Times is more accurate. Reuters continues ...

FRAGILE LEAD

Analysts said New Democracy's lead was precarious. "These polls show that people got scared from SYRIZA's lead in previous surveys," said political analyst John Loulis.

"This is still a very tight race. New Democracy has a small advantage but whoever called them favorites would be dead wrong," he added.

SYRIZA, led by its charismatic 37-year old leader Alexis Tsipras, is doing particularly well among the young who are particularly hit by unemployment, pollster Pulse said.

New Democracy, by contrast, had a big lead among the over-60s, Pulse said.

In a bid to woo anti-bailout voters, conservative leader Samaras said on Saturday Greece should be given more time to comply with a bailout term to generate about 11.5 billion euros in savings over the next two years.

"All new spending cuts ... should take place over four years, not two," he was quoted as saying by Real News.

Greece's bailout deal allows for a possible relaxation of the country's bailout targets if its recession worsens.

Greece's new government will have to act fast. Without new bailout funds, Athens may run out of cash by end of June, newspaper To Vima reported, citing a memo compiled by former Prime Minister Lucas Papademos on May 11.

"From June 20, the government's available cash will cross negative territory to the tune of 1 billion euros," the document said, confirming earlier reports by finance ministry officials that Greece might run out cash by the end of June.

Given the highly inflammatory statements of Lagarde regarding no renegotiation of terms (please see Harsh Language from Lagarde: "IMF Has No Intention of Softening Terms"; From Head of Deutsche Bank: "Greece is a Failed Corrupt State"; Purposely Inflammatory Statements to Force Greece Exit), New Democracy leader Samaras is disingenuous at best in his call to renegotiate the terms of the bailout.

I believe Greek voters will see through Samaras' lies, preferring the "no bailout" message of Tsipras.

Regardless, intense fear-mongering by the New Democrats, Pasok, Merkel, and Hollande is likely. Some of that will be counterproductive.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Harsh Language from Lagarde: "IMF Has No Intention of Softening Terms"; From Head of Deutsche Bank: "Greece is a Failed Corrupt State"; Purposely Inflammatory Statements to Force Greece Exit

Posted: 26 May 2012 10:42 AM PDT

Strong messages from the head or the IMF, the head of Deutsche Bank, and the president of the Bundesbank are highly likely to drive Greek voters away from New Democracy and Pasok in the June 17 elections.

The Guardian writes It's payback time: don't expect sympathy – Lagarde to Greeks.

The International Monetary Fund has ratcheted up the pressure on crisis-hit Greece after its managing director, Christine Lagarde, said she has more sympathy for children deprived of decent schooling in sub-Saharan Africa than for many of those facing poverty in Athens.

In an uncompromising interview with the Guardian, Lagarde insists it is payback time for Greece and makes it clear that the IMF has no intention of softening the terms of the country's austerity package.

Asked whether she is able to block out of her mind the mothers unable to get access to midwives or patients unable to obtain life-saving drugs, Lagarde replies: "I think more of the little kids from a school in a little village in Niger who get teaching two hours a day, sharing one chair for three of them, and who are very keen to get an education. I have them in my mind all the time. Because I think they need even more help than the people in Athens."

"I think they should also help themselves collectively." Asked how, she replies: "By all paying their tax."

Asked if she is essentially saying to the Greeks and others in Europe that they have had a nice time and it is now payback time, she responds: "That's right."

Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank, poured cold water on the idea – which is strongly backed by the French president, François Hollande – and also said financial aid to Greece should be cut off if it failed to keep to the bailout deal.

Jürgen Fitschen, joint head of Germany's biggest bank, Deutsche, described Greece as "a failed state … a corrupt state".

Purposely Inflammatory Statements to Benefit Syriza

Those statements are not only inflammatory, but purposely so. Lagarde has to know that her message stating more sympathy to Africa than patients refused life-saving drugs in Greece is bound to incite Greeks.

Recall that Antonis Samaras (the head of New Democracy) and Evangelos Venizelos (the head of Pasok), have promised voters they will renegotiate the terms.

Greek voters just had that promise yanked away in no uncertain terms. IMF and Deutsche Bank statements also make German chancellor Angela Merkel look like a cream-puff with her offer of potential stimulus efforts.

In contrast to the lies of Samaras and Venizelos, Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras says the bailout is null and void, while stating Greece will remain in the euro.

It is had to say with certainty whether his promise to remain in the eurozone is a purposeful lie as opposed to pure fantasy, but given there is no provision to kick any country out of the eurozone, he just might believe it.

Lies and Bluffs

For further discussion please consider

What if Tsipras is Not Bluffing? Who Holds the Upper hand? What is Troika's Biggest Fear? Can Greece Possibly Stay in the Eurozone After Default?

Merkel's 6-Point Plan to Save Europe; Merkel Backed Into Tight Corner: Social Democrats Threaten to Not Ratify Merkozy Treaty Without Growth Measures; Merkel Coalition at Risk

IMF Purposeful Attempt to Incite Greek Exit

The IMF has had enough. It does not want to deal with a coalition of Samaras and Venizelos given falling revenues in Greece and no hint of any true structural reforms. Rather, Lagarde wants to drive Greek voters to Syriza so that Greece can default and the Troika can cut off all funding in "clear conscience"

All funding should be cut now (in fact three years ago), but the IMF hopes to absolve itself of blame.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

The Evolution of Motorcycle Safety [Infographic]

Posted: 25 May 2012 11:21 PM PDT

The early 1960s may have been the decade when motorcycling officially became the world's coolest mode of transport – thanks to the smouldering likes of Steve McQueen and James Dean – but it was also the era when deaths on the road peaked, with over 1,500 bikers a year killed between 1959 and 1962.

Keeping bikers and other road users safe on the roads is a cause most people actively support. Promoting awareness of motorcycle safety and bringing attention on how this can be enhanced collectively play an active role in motorcycle safety communications. Bennetts has just published an infographic supporting this very cause. Championing the awareness and inroads made into improving motorcycle safety, the 'Evolution of Motorcycle Safety' infographic encapsulates the historic charting of pinnacle moments in the development of motorcycle safety as well as how this has affected the safety of road users.

Click image to see a larger version.

Via Infographicjournal

Seth's Blog : This is (still) broken

This is (still) broken

Two things worth a design rant, as well as a book and a free video talk...

I apologize if you see the world with more frustration after this.

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Weekly Address: Honoring Our Fallen Heroes this Memorial Day

Your Daily Snapshot for
Saturday, May 26, 2012

Weekly Address: Honoring Our Fallen Heroes this Memorial Day

President Obama pays tribute to our men and women in uniform who have died in service to our country.

Watch the President's weekly address:

President Barack Obama tapes the Weekly Address to the nation in the Map Room of the White House, May 25, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

Weekly Wrap Up

Your quick look at this week on Whitehouse.gov:

An Affront to American Values: At the Symposium on Global Agriculture and Food Security President Obama addressed how world hunger does not receive the attention it deserves from the global community, including our own nation. He mentions that, "When tens of thousands of children when tens of thousands of children die from the agony of starvation, as in Somalia, that sends us a message we've still got a lot of work to do. It's unacceptable. It's an outrage. It's an affront to who we are."

G8 Summit: This past weekend the U.S. hosted leaders from the eight largest nation's in terms of economy at Camp David in Chicago. At this summit, world leaders held conversations about world hunger, as well as on the priority of growth in jobs in the world economy.

The Final Chapters: President Obama participated in the International Security Assistance Force meeting on Afghanistan, with more than 60 countries where he reiterated that troubles in Afghanistan were not over, but that serious progress has been made towards solving issues with Al Qaeda.

Resilience in the Face of Tragedy: Then President Obama made his way to Joplin, Missouri to attend the town's high school graduation. This visit nearly coincided to the day with the one year anniversary of the tornado that devastated the town. President Obama remarked on how the spirit of Joplin was commendable, and a testament that the American people are in it together, even in the toughest of times.

The Future of Energy: President Obama's last stop this week landed him in Newton, Iowa where TPI Composites manufactures wind turbine blades. Here he restated the importance of cleaner, renewable energy and pushed Congress to act on his To-Do-List. "If Congress doesn't act, companies like this one will take a hit," he said. "Jobs will be lost. That's not a guess, that's a fact. We can't let that happen." The President followed up this talk up with a session of live tweeting to people, answering thier questions in less than 140 characters.

West Wing Week: Your video guide to everything that's happened this week at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue: Watch here.

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duminică, 27 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Emergency room doctors

Emergency room doctors

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 26 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics

Seth's Blog : This is (still) broken

This is (still) broken

More Recent Articles

Weekly Address: Honoring Our Fallen Heroes this Memorial Day

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Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

duminică, 27 mai 2012

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 26 mai 2012

More Recent Articles

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Persoane interesate

Arhivă blog

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