Central Perk

miercuri, 16 octombrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Replaced by a Mannequin
Deal to Continue the Bickering Through Feb 7; Boehner Compromised; Next election, Rand Paul + Chris Christie?
Is Gathering Real Time "Inflation" Data With Smart Phones a "Game Changer"?

Posted: 16 Oct 2013 10:00 PM PDT

Why pay a human if a mannequin can do the job better?

I have talked about mannequins before, but the idea of mannequins replacing humans is back in the news again.

Meet Sandy

"Sandy," a sign-waving mannequin, helps bring in customers to a Los Angeles smoke shop. Image by Alex Schmidt/NPR.

NPR reports There's A New Kind Of Sign Spinner In Town.

Meet the sign-spinning mannequin. She's freakishly tall, and her head is turned way back, Exorcist style.

It's more than one job. There are several sign-spinning mannequin companies now, in LA, Oregon, Florida and beyond. Some business owners are going the Geppetto route and making them from scratch.

Christopher Hunanyan enlisted the help of relatives to create the 6-foot-tall bombshell he named Sandy in front of his LA smoke shop.

"It is a good investment," Hunanyan says. He says the mannequin is bringing in customers, sales and profits.

The way advertising works is we get used to stuff, then we stop noticing it. So marketers are in a constant arms race to get our attention. They have to get weirder and weirder — like with the mannequins — and more sophisticated.

Carnegie Mellon robotics professor Illah Nourbakhsh says one day the mannequins may become actual robots — able to see us, guess our age and gender and customize their marketing messages with frightening accuracy.

Sign Waving Mannequin Video

Link if image does not play: Replaced by a Mennequin

Here is my favorite image clip from the video.

That mannequin rates to bring in far more business than even a good looking sign waver (which most are not).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Deal to Continue the Bickering Through Feb 7; Boehner Compromised; Next election, Rand Paul + Chris Christie?

Posted: 16 Oct 2013 11:26 AM PDT

Even though Republicans hold a majority in the House, Speaker John Boehner failed to muster enough votes for two proposals he floated.

Is that a sign of ineptitude, weakness, or that the House was hijacked by no-compromise Tea-partiers in a complete fool's mission?

Regardless, Senate Leaders Reached Agreement on budget deal to end the shutdown.

"This is a time for reconciliation," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of the agreement he had forged with the GOP leader, Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. One prominent tea party lawmaker, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, said he would oppose the plan, but not seek to delay its passage.

Officials said the proposal called for the Treasury to have authority to continue borrowing through Feb. 7, and the government would reopen through Jan. 15.

Democratic Leader, Rep. Nancy Pelosi of California, has signaled she will support the plan and her rank and file is expected to vote for it in overwhelming numbers.

Despite initial Republican demands for the defunding of the health care law known as Obamacare, the pending agreement makes only one modest change in the program. It requires individuals and families seeking subsidies to purchase coverage to verify their incomes before qualifying.

Boehner's inability to produce a bill that could pass his own chamber likely means he will have to let the House vote on a Senate compromise, even if that means it would pass with strong Democratic and weak GOP support. House Republican leaders have tried to avoid that scenario for fear that it would threaten their leadership, and some Republicans worried openly about that.

"Of all the damage to be done politically here, one of the greatest concerns I have is that somehow John Boehner gets compromised," said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a former House member and a Boehner supporter.

"It's time to reopen the government and ensure we don't default on our debt," Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, R-Wash., said in a written statement. "I will not vote for poison pills that have no chance of passing the Senate or being signed into law."

Deal to Continue the Bickering

Between now and January 15, expect relative calm. Then, if no agreements are made to reduce spending, we can look forward to another ridiculous round of bickering over cutbacks.

Speaker Boehner Compromised

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a former House member and a Boehner supporter, is worried that "somehow John Boehner gets compromised."

Somehow?

It's clear that Boehner is already compromised. The question now is whether or not Boehner loses house speakership due to his inability to lead.

Ultimately, it was clear from the beginning that Boehner would have to send a clean bill to the House, and that is exactly what is going to happen.

Boehner's "End Obamacare" proposals did not have a chance in the Senate and thus were a big waste of time and energy, with Republicans taking the blame for the shutdown.

Since no good (for Republicans) could possibly come from this bickering, the Senate finally voted to cut the losses, and perhaps Boehner's neck at the same time.

Even if Boehner survives, he is damaged goods.

Who is to Blame?

One seriously misguided soul emailed me yesterday, stating that libertarians, especially me, are to blame for this mess, and also for Mitt Romney losing the election.

In regards to soaring debt, both parties are to blame: Republicans for their ridiculous war-mongering and Democrats for entitlements. In addition, President George Bush is responsible for an irresponsible Medicare bill that added greatly to the deficit.

As for Mitt Romney losing the election, neither I nor libertarians are responsible. Toss every libertarian vote to Romney and he still loses in an electoral landslide.

Republicans themselves are to blame for nominating a hopelessly weak candidate.

Independents the Key

Many independents (of which libertarians are only a tiny component) could not support Romney's war posturing with Iran, his trade-war posturing with China, or his position on abortion.

To top it off, Obamacare and Romneycare are one and the same.

The election debacle should have been a wakeup call for Republicans, but judging from the mess Boehner made for himself and Republicans, it wasn't.

Looking Ahead to the Next Election

Hopefully Republicans will get their act together and nominate someone that independents can vote for.

How about a ticket of Senator Rand Paul and Governor Chris Christie?

Independents could vote for such a ticket, and indeed I think they would, especially if Rand Paul keeps his rhetoric under control. Christie is well liked by Democrats in New Jersey and he could make it close in similar states.

If instead, tea-partiers hijack the nomination with an extreme right-wing, pro-war, pro-gun, anti-abortion candidate, that person would likely get trounced by Hillary Clinton (assuming she wins the nomination).

But don't blame me, I am just the messenger.

Addendum:

Reader "CJ" writes ...

"Christie is well liked by Democrats in New Jersey". And why wouldn't they like Christie? He is pretty much a Democrat, who goes along with Obama but has a little bit of sense about budgetary matters. I'm really not even sure why he calls himself a Republican. Sometimes a politician just can't get the party of choice to support him.

My response ...

Christie is extremely anti-public-union and is despised by them. He cut spending and lowered taxes. Yet, many Democrats now like him.

Why? Because his policies improved things. I do not know his position on war-mongering but it cannot possibly be worse than Romney's.

Christie is hardly perfect (but no one else is either).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Is Gathering Real Time "Inflation" Data With Smart Phones a "Game Changer"?

Posted: 15 Oct 2013 11:55 PM PDT

Premise Data Corp, a startup firm backed by Google, has deployed 700 smartphone-equipped workers across 25 cities to capture images of products as their prices change daily.

The Wall Street Journal claims Real-Time Economic Data Could Be a Game Changer.

Software automatically tags the location of the products down to the individual store and analyzes the images—items such as meat and produce—to gauge quality differences. A user viewing the information can zoom in on images of the products at each retail location, making it a store-shelf version of Google Street View.

Premise's computers also scroll through websites to automatically grab prices from Internet stores, a process that still provides about 80% of the data the firm uses to create real-time inflation gauges.

In contrast, the Labor Department collects price data by dispatching its staff to collect product prices once a month. The information is then compiled into a monthly inflation report.

Outsiders have questioned Argentina's inflation data for years. That inspired Alberto Cavallo, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, to create his own measures starting in 2007.

The effort eventually became the academic initiative called the Billion Prices Project, collecting data from online retailers around the world to create daily inflation measures. In 2010 it led to PriceStats, which distributes inflation gauges through the financial-services firm State Street Corp. STT -0.36% to about 7,500 clients.

Premise's goal is to provide even deeper information—down to the product level rather than just categories of products—and provide the technology platform for a wide range of other economic indicators beyond inflation.

Hal Varian, Google Inc.'s chief economist and a Premise adviser, said the data could give government officials insight into developments that can stir up their populations. Prices for popular food items—bread in the Middle East, corn in Mexico or pork in China—could be tracked well ahead of popular unrest.

"All these things are sensitive from a political point of view," Mr. Varian said. "Having up-to-date information is quite valuable."

Fatal Flaws in Inflation Tracking Methodology

Let's not pretend any of these companies will be tracking "inflation" because consumer prices are a symptom of inflation rather than inflation itself.

Inflation, the expansion of money supply and credit, frequently manifests itself in the form of asset bubbles, rather than price hikes in consumer goods. For example, the dot-com bubble and the housing bubble (and the subsequent crashes), are the direct result of Fed inflationary practices.

Currently, the stock market and bond market are both in bubble territory because of the Fed's inflationary practices. Unfortunately, there is no way to prove that thesis until the next crash.

Nonetheless, there is a benefit to price tracking.

The Benefit

Instead of bringing back laid off BEA and BLS workers let's get rid of them. Gallup can easily track unemployment and this firm can better track consumer prices.

Any technology with a capability of eliminating government workers is fine by me, but unless that actually happens, "game changer" is a bit of a stretch.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

It's Not Happening Here But It Is Happening Now
Robert Forstemann Huge Legs
Most Extreme Weather [Infographic]
Top 21 Rad Radiators

It's Not Happening Here But It Is Happening Now

Posted: 16 Oct 2013 07:21 PM PDT

Good ad campaign by Amnesty International - It's not happening here. But it is happening now.

Robert Forstemann Huge Legs

Posted: 16 Oct 2013 07:06 PM PDT

If a gold medal could be handed to the Olympic athlete with the largest thighs, German cyclist Robert Forstemann would lead the pack.

Most Extreme Weather [Infographic]

Posted: 16 Oct 2013 06:21 PM PDT

The news is packed with stories of extreme weather from around the globe, but are we experiencing the worst of the worst now? Looks like the last century has seen some real doozies.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

Most Extreme Weather by The Air Conditioning Company

Top 21 Rad Radiators

Posted: 16 Oct 2013 06:10 PM PDT

It's that time of year again: leaves are falling, stodgy food is calling and there's no chance of drying your washing on the line. Best crank up the central heating, then. After a long summer of standing still, looking boring and being cold, it's time for your radiators to continue standing still and looking boring whilst they dry your clothes and creak creepily when you're trying to get to sleep. But hang on – who said radiators had to look boring? None of the designers who created these beauties, that's who. Forget the dull eyesores that are stuck to almost everyone's walls: this is art. If you thought radiators were all plain white oblongs, our list of the coolest radiators on the planet says you're wrong. Here goes…

Like a Bra

His 'n' Hers

This Little Piggy

View Entire List >>

Growing Sales Without a Sales Team: The Power of Distribution

Posted: 15 Oct 2013 04:20 PM PDT

Posted by AndrewDumont

Early on, we made the decision not to grow a sales team at Moz. We're not anti-sales, per se, it's just that it does't fit our culture. We believe in practicing what we preachâ€"inbound marketingâ€"not interruption selling.

Consequently, that provides a bit of a problem for a B2B SaaS business like Moz. Growing through traditional inbound channels is immensely powerful, but at a certain scale, maintaining linearity in growth through content, social media, and search becomes difficult. Working with the role of Business Development at Moz, it's my job to find those channels that will introduce growth at scale in a predictive way.

Which brings me to distribution.

Just over two years ago when I started at Moz, we began to ponder a simple question: If we offered an extended free trial on Moz (45, 60, 90, or 120 days) to select partners, could it move the needle on growth?

Before we'd be able to answer that question, however, we needed a few assets. The first was what we call a "partner page" internallyâ€"a lander that factors in a coupon code at check-out and offers a soft entry point from a third-party site. An example of that can be found below, which was shown in a recent partnership we launched with Get Startup Tools. It should be said that this is not an ideal partner page. There's much to be tested in the way of alternate text length and incorporating partner logos, which have proven to bump conversion in relevant studies.

Next, we needed to find something to provide our partners with value outside of the extended trial period that they'd be offering to their community through the distribution. This brought us to the concept of a "perks page," a collection of top web services that we could offer to Moz subscribers at discounted price, in a sense offering what we were looking for in return. With these two assets in place, were were ready to go.

Which brings me back to the question I teed up for myself originally. Yes, it could move the needle on growth, but how much? Let's take a look. Below is a breakdown of free trials and paid conversions that have come directly from the distribution channel since January of 2012.

(click for larger version)

Looking at these numbers, however unsophisticated the graph may be, it begs another question: Sure, the numbers are growing, but do they perform as well as organic free trials, or do they churn out at a higher rate? Below is an analysis of just that, comparing conversion rates and churn of organic trials versus distribution trials, broken down by month in their subscription.

(click for larger version)

As you'll notice, month 0 and 1 are much higher than organic, but it then regulates out to something more manageable, a rate very similar to that of organic. Oddly enough, when we looked at trial length and the corresponding conversion rate, it didn't increase with length. Out of a fairly large sample set of 45, 60, 75, 90, and 120-day trials, the 60-day trial performed best by far. Counterintuitive, to say the least. From a holistic view, the conversion rate was lower, but not by an insane amount.

(click for larger version)

Now, back to that needle. How much revenueâ€"real moneyâ€"have distributions brought in? As of August 1st, 2013, we generated roughly $139,788 in revenue on a monthly basis through the distribution channel, or $2.3M in revenue since the channel was created in January of 2012.

(click for larger version)

Not bad. But I haven't even brought up the most amazing part of distribution: acquisition cost. Each one of these users that came through our partners via distributions came to us with $0 in acquisition cost, which is why step two of the legwork I mentioned was so darned important. By offering value back to our partners through their inclusion in our perks page, all of the numbers listed above were acquired without a rev-share or acquisition cost. The only spend was in the form of an increased operating cost from the extended trail. The hottest of damns.

That's all and well for Moz, but how can you apply it to your business? Well, regardless of your business, it's definitely worth adding to your tool belt as one of your 21 tactics, but it's typically best-suited for SaaS businesses like Moz.

If you're a service provider, you'll likely have to get a little bit more creative. Though it's not a direct corollary, the closest comparable in the service world would be a partnership with a software product like Moz, wherein Moz becomes a recommendation engine for new clients. You can see this in practice through our partnership with Distilled. For most software companies, they don't want to derail focus from the product through consulting work, so there's a lot of value to be added in becoming that missing consultation piece.

Regardless, the same concepts apply. Provide value and receive value; that's the nature of any partnership. Yet for some reason, partnerships typically aren't thought of as a growth channel in the inbound marketing mix, when they can clearly have an impact.

Hell, in this example, they even build links, if you're into that sort of thing.

A huge thanks to Alyson and Kurtis for making all of this data possible, both for our internal analysis and for the sake of this post, they employed some serious mySQL-fu.

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Seth's Blog : "I don't get it"

"I don't get it"

Who is teaching us to look deeper?

If you read a blog post, and it begins with an analogy about car dealers, is your instinct to say, "well, I'm not a car dealer..." and then jump to the next post?

When you see something working (or not working) in the marketplace, something you don't understand, do you stop to figure out why it's working (or not working)? Or is it easier to change the attention channel and get back into line?

I've discovered (the hard way) three rules for writing a blog post that will spread:

Don't use unfamiliar words or concepts.
Avoid subtlety.
Try not to challenge deeply held beliefs.

Education, politics, marketing, tourist attractions--they all seem to work better when we keep people moving, behind the velvet rope, input & output, cause and effect, this then that. When the masses conform to the system we've built, the system works a whole lot better.

But who wants to be a cog in that machine? While playing it safe might work, where does it get us?

The best opportunity you've got to grow and to make an impact is to seek out the, "I don't get it," moments, and then work at it and noodle on it and discuss it until you do get it. Analogies and metaphors are your friends. Dense lyrics, almost indecipherable prose, mysterious successes--these are the places where you will leap forward.

I know there is now an infinite amount of media to choose from, an infinite number of experiences to have. But if you skip over the ones that aren't spoon fed to you, all you'll end up with is eating from a spoon.