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joi, 27 septembrie 2012
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miercuri, 26 septembrie 2012
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- French Unemployment Tops 3 Million, First Time Since 1999
- Is China Burning? Shanghai Stock Index Breaks 2000 For First Time Since 2009; Reflections on Sentiment
- Firebombs, Teargas, Riots Near Greek Parliament; 57% Say Greece Should Abandon Pledges Made to Troika
French Unemployment Tops 3 Million, First Time Since 1999 Posted: 26 Sep 2012 10:31 PM PDT Given the disastrous mess in Southern Europe, compounded by the election of socialist Francois Hollande (together with his extremely foolish tax hike policies), France Set to Implode was a very easy call to make. The evidence is strongly pointing in that direction. Please consider French unemployment tops 3 million as economy struggles The number of unemployed people in France has topped 3 million for the first time since 1999, according to latest labour ministry figures.Flatline? Please Be Serious The idea that France is going to flatline is ridiculous. Growth estimates for next year are even more ridiculous. Eurozone Unemployment Rates ![]() With the rest of Europe slowing dramatically, do not expect German unemployment to buck the trend forever. Italy is in a steep downturn now, and France is going to follow suit. Meanwhile, France, Spain, Greece, and Italy are busy hiking taxes which is economic insanity in a recession. They ought to be reforming work rules, but on that score there is little progress, with negative progress in France. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 26 Sep 2012 12:08 PM PDT Today the Shanghai stock index, $SSEC, dipped below the 2000 level for the first time since 2009. Stockcharts does not have intraday charts of ADRs so here are a couple of charts from yesterday to consider. $SSEC Daily Chart ![]() The following monthly chart puts things in better perspective. $SSEC Monthly Chart ![]() Shanghai Rout is On Misguided China bulls shorting the dollar and buying Chinese stocks have gotten their heads handed to them on a platter. Those aware of the fraud, corruption, and simple sustainability of economic growth in China either stayed away completely or were short China like Jim Chanos. Bloomberg reports Shanghai Rout Sinks ADRs Chinese stocks in New York slid to a two-week low as the Shanghai Composite Index's slump below a key level for the first time in three years stoked concern government efforts to avert a slowdown won't be sufficient.Is China Burning? Forbes columnist Gordon Chang asks the question, Is China Burning? Chinese streets were quiet today after anti-Japan protests, many of them violent, rocked more than a 100 cities last week. Large demonstrations continued through Tuesday, the 81st anniversary of Japan's invasion of Manchuria.Reflections on Sentiment A few years ago nearly everyone was a China bull. China, China, China was all I heard at gold and natural resources conferences. My calls pointing out the unsustainability of Chinese growth fell mostly on deaf ears. Remember how in the 1980s everyone thought Japan would soon rule the world. That's what many thought about China, and still do. I did not buy into it, nor did Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets. Here are a few posts to consider.
The idea that China was going to rule the world by the end of the decade was complete silliness. Exponential math, as well as energy constraints said it would not happen. Malinvestments and fraud were simply icing on the absurdly-bullish cake. That said, as compared to a few years ago, or even earlier this year, sentiment on China has soured remarkably. The fundamentals did not change, just the sentiment. Indeed, sentiment is now so sour on China that a nice rally may happen at any time. This is not a recommendation that people buy into China, rather it's a suggestion that sentiment is now moving towards extreme pessimism. Reversals from such extremes can lead to powerful rallies. However, timing the reversal is problematic as the four percent rally quickly taken back shows. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 26 Sep 2012 08:16 AM PDT Once again things are out of control in Greece. A general strike is underway, and schools, hospitals, and transit are affected. Firebombs and teargas have hit Athens as Greek citizens protest the latest round of austerity measures. Please consider Greek Strike Sees Violence as Police Use Tear Gas by Parliament Police fired tear gas near the Greek Parliament after protesters threw fire-bombs as thousands of people joined a strike opposing wage cuts and austerity that Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said are vital to keep the euro.Sentiment Has Turned Sentiment in Greece has turned, and likely turned for good. 57% of Greeks have had enough of austerity to the point they would rather default. Turn back the hands of time a bit and think how this might have played out if Greece simply left the euro and defaulted three years ago as it should have. Tourism would likely have increased and if Greece had implemented true structural reforms rather than tax hikes, its economy would be stable or recovering now. Instead, the country is in ruins, tourism is down, and in an on-again-off-again fashion, absolute chaos breaks out. Another round of austerity and tax hikes can only make things worse at this point, and the people know it. This will pressure political parties to not go along with Samaras. If another round of elections were held today, there is no way Samaras would win. Instead, the radical left, and radical right (both of which want to exit the euro), would be fighting over the pieces. The nannycrats in Brussels and Chancellor Merkel are to blame for this sad state of affairs. Finally, please note that the big fear of the nannycrats and Merkel is not that Greece leaves the euro per se, but rather Greece leaves the euro and the Greek economy starts to recover. Well, here's the deal and it is something I said years ago: the sooner Greece abandons the euro, tells the Troika to go to hell, and defaults, the better off it will be. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Damn Cool Pics
Damn Cool Pics |
- Fail Compilation September 2012
- Cats Acting Out Their Favorite Movies
- Forever Alone
- How the iPhone 5 Has Affected the Smartphone Market [Infographic]
- The iPhone 5 (Parody) Ad: A Taller Change [Video]
Fail Compilation September 2012 Posted: 26 Sep 2012 05:42 PM PDT ![]() People continued to break their bones on camera in September and, as usual, TwisterNetherland compiled them all into one cringe-inducing video: |
Cats Acting Out Their Favorite Movies Posted: 26 Sep 2012 05:22 PM PDT In case you ever wondered what cats like to watch. Or if you simply wanted to know if they're any good at Charades. ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Via Buzzfeed |
Posted: 26 Sep 2012 02:58 PM PDT |
How the iPhone 5 Has Affected the Smartphone Market [Infographic] Posted: 26 Sep 2012 09:55 AM PDT Click on Image to Enlarge. ![]() |
The iPhone 5 (Parody) Ad: A Taller Change [Video] Posted: 25 Sep 2012 07:53 PM PDT ![]() In line with the release of Apple's iPhone 5, Seattle-based comedy video makers Satire Channel created a parody commercial that pokes fun at the phone's longer screen. The video entitled 'The iPhone 5 (Parody): A Taller Change Than Expected', ridiculously-reimagines the iPhone 5 getting a 795% taller screen as an increased display size. |
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