Damn Cool Pics |
| Gangnam Style from Hitler [Video] Posted: 19 Sep 2012 09:18 PM PDT  Check out this clips of Adolf Hitler from the famous German film Downfall mashed with a viral Korean-pop anthem by PSY. Not only is this video hilarious, but catchy too. 
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New on Mozcast - 5 Real-time Top-view Metrics |
| New on Mozcast - 5 Real-time Top-view Metrics Posted: 19 Sep 2012 08:02 PM PDT Posted by Dr. Pete When we started reporting the Google “weather” on MozCast, we knew that one number could never paint the entire picture of something as complex as the Google algorithm. Over the last few months, we’ve been exploring other ways to look at ranking data from high altitude, and have reported on metrics like domain diversity and EMD influence. Today, I’m happy to announce that we’re rolling out five of these “top-view” metrics on MozCast, updated daily. From the new “METRICS” page (top menu), you’ll see five tabs: Each metric defaults to a 30-day view, but you can also see 60-day and 90-day data. Please note that Y-axes all auto-scale to emphasize daily changes, so make sure to note the scale when interpreting this data. I trust you all to be grown-ups and draw your own conclusions. So, let’s dive right into the five top-view metrics… (1) Domain DiversityThe domain diversity graph shows the percentage of URLs across the MozCast data set that have unique subdomains. Put more simply, it’s the number of unique subdomains divided by the number of total URLs/rankings. The more diversity, the less SERP “crowding” – here’s a 30-day view: Keep in mind that the range over the past 30 days has been pretty narrow (less than 1%), so let’s take a look at the broader, 90-day view: You can hover over any data point for dates and more precise percentages. Here, you can see that diversity increased when Google rolled out 7-result SERPs (from about 8/12-8/14), but has gradually declined over the past 90 days. When we started collecting data in early April, domain diversity was closer to 61%, but it dropped significantly after the Penguin update (on 4/24). On September 14, Matt Cutts announced on Twitter that Google had made a change to improve SERP diversity: We saw a small bump (about 0.4%) from 9/6 to 9/9, but otherwise have no evidence for major improvements. Please keep in mind that this is one data set and one way of measuring “diversity” – I’m not calling a Matt a liar, and I’d welcome other analyses and points of view. My goal is to create transparency where we currently have very little of it. (2) SERP Count (“Shrinkage”)Over a roughly 2-day period in mid-August, Google rolled out 7-result SERPs (for page 1), and our data shows that it impacted roughly 18% of the queries we track. We originally reported this as the number of SERPs with <10 results, but that presented two problems: (1) less results made the graph go up – which is a bit confusing, and (2) that metric doesn’t change if the result count changes. In other words (hat tip to Moz teammate Myron on this one), if all of the 7-result SERPs suddenly changed to 6-result SERPs, our original metric would never show it. So, we’ve replaced that metric with the average result count. Here’s a 60-day view: In this case, an average drop of 0.5 results is massive, and the graph tells the story pretty well. The 30-day data shows much, much smaller variations, but this metric will help us track any future changes, including a return to 10-result SERPs (if that were to happen). (3) EMD InfluenceThe influence of Exact-Match Domains (EMDs) is a hot topic in SEO. Our EMD influence metric shows the percentage of Top 10 rankings that are currently occupied by EMDs. Specifically, if the keyphrase is “buy widgets”, than we consider only “buywidgets.tld” (any TLD) to be an exact match. Here’s the 90-day data: My recent post goes into more detail and there are a lot of ways to dig into this data, but we’re seeing a slight uptick in EMD influence recently over the past 3 months. (4) PMD InfluenceSimilarly, PMD influence measures the influence of Partial-Match Domains on the Top 10. For the keyphrase “buy widgets”, we count any URL with either “buywidgets” or “buy-widgets” in the subdomain as a partial match. This metric does not include EMDs. Here’s the 90-day view: In line with the broader history reported earlier, PMDs seem to be steadily declining in influence. Keep in mind that this doesn’t mean that any particular PMD won’t rank (they still hold over 4% of Top 10 rankings) – it just means that their overall impact is trending downward. (5) Daily Big 10Finally, we have a new metric I haven’t covered in any previous blog post, the “Big 10.” Apologies to college football fans (I’m a former Hawkeye), but I didn’t want to confuse this with the “Top 10.” The Big 10 influence is the percentage of Top 10 rankings accounted for by the ten most powerful subdomains on any given day. This list changes daily, and any single day’s data represents the influence of the Big 10 for that day. Currently, the Big 10 domains account for about 13.6% of Top 10 rankings in our data set: Below the graph for this metric, we also list the Big 10 subdomains for the most recent day. Like all of the MozCast stats, this list is currently recalculated each morning. Here’s the data from 9/18:
Currently, the roughly 9,500 URLs in our data set (Top 7-10 for 1,000 keywords) represent about 5,300 unique subdomains, so the fact that just ten of them take up almost 14% of the real estate is pretty amazing. Wikipedia alone holds 4.6% of the Top 10 URLs that we track (today). There’s a fair amount of movement in the bottom couple of domains, and Twitter dropped out of the Top 10 earlier this year. What Would You Like to See?There are a lot of ways to slice the data and we have quite a few ideas in the pipe, but if there are specific, large-scale metrics you’re interested in, let me know. We’re trying to incorporate community feedback into the product development plan. Also, feel free to make suggestions on the @mozcast Twitter account. I’d like to quickly thank Devin and Casey for doing the behind-the-scenes work to get this page integrated, and to Devin in particular for turning my single, rambling page of stats into a pretty slick design. Thanks as usual to Dr. Matt Peters for feedback on the math, and to Rand for putting up with dozens of emails and somehow reading them all on top of his other 23 hours/day of work. Pardon a shameless plug, but if you’d like to hear more about the history of MozCast, I gave an hour-long presentation about it at MozCon in July. The online MozCon videos just went on sale yesterday. Even if you hate me, there’s 16 hours of other great content and you can just fast-forward over my part – I won’t mind, really *sniff.* Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read! |
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If you don't have time to do it right, how you will find time to do it over?
PS stalling is even worse than hurrying.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
| Posted: 19 Sep 2012 01:06 PM PDT MarketWatch reports FedEx profit down 1.1% on manufacturing slowdown
FedEx Shipments vs. GDP  The above chart from Bloomberg. I picked up in "tweet" by Kevin Depew. Petroleum Usage Tim Wallace pinged me this morning with a note "Aug-Sep early numbers are running 3% negative to last year, September actually running -3.5% now. This is not a good sign." For detailed charts of monthly petroleum, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel numbers please see Email From Lead Analyst, Weekly Petroleum Supply Team on Possibility of Recession. Also note dismal retail sales numbers as posted in California August Sales Tax Collection Down 20% From Year Ago, Total Revenues Down 5.5%, Income Tax Up 11.6%; Spending Out Of Control By $3 Billion Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| Posted: 19 Sep 2012 09:23 AM PDT A summary of California State Finances for August 2012 looks like this:  Except for corporate income taxes (down a whopping 71.5% vs. projections), the state is doing better in August than budgeted. However, compared to a year ago, revenues are down, sales taxes are down, and corporate taxes are down, all by significant amounts. Moreover, the two-month totals for July and August are much worse as the following table shows. General Fund Receipts July-August 2012  For July and August, sales Tax Collections are $108 million under budget. August sales tax collection is down 20% from a year ago, a huge decline of $633 million. This clearly shows people in California have cut back spending. I suggest people have cut back in other states as well, regardless of reported increases in retail sales, typically based on the flawed methodology of "same store sales". Sales tax collections show the real story, and the real story is "recession", the reason for Fed Panic! Spending Nearly $3 Billion Over Budget!  For the complete report, please see Statement of General Fund Cash Receipts and Disbursements So California, what are you going to do? Cut spending or hike taxes? I suggest spending is way out of control and retail sales will continue to disappoint. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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| QE to Infinity and Beyond; Mish for President? Posted: 18 Sep 2012 11:58 PM PDT Once again I had the pleasure of being on Capital Account with Lauren Lyster on Tuesday. We discussed the election, my comments on "Mitt Romney's Foot-in-Mouth Disease", a US recession, "QE to Eternity", and other topics. Mish for President? Lauren Lyster mentioned my statement that I would not vote for Obama nor Romney. I received several email from readers on that wondering if I was going to opt out of the election. I will vote. I have voted in every election since 1972. I believe people should vote. I just cannot stand the choices presented. In the previous two elections I wrote-in Ron Paul. However, Ron Paul is retiring from Congress, having served the nation well. So I am considering instead other possibilities such as Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson or perhaps even myself. The latter possibility came up when a close friend made an out-of-the-blue yet sincere statement that he was writing-in me. Well, why not? If he can write-in me, why shouldn't I write-in me? I do not expect to win, and I will not hire an exploratory commission led by Donald Trump to prove it. However, Ron Paul and Gary Johnson will not win either. Moreover, a handful of write-in votes for Ron Paul would not merit much media attention, but 50 wrote-in votes in every state for "Mish" might conceivably get a mention. So if you think as I do, that Obama and Romney are bad choices for America, then please go ahead and write-in "Mish". Unlike the others, I pledge to spend zero dollars on my campaign, I pledge to bring all the troops home, I will end collective bargaining of public unions by decree (reversing what President Kennedy did by decree), and I will get rid of Ben Bernanke, appointing someone who will work out a plan to get rid of the Fed entirely as well as eliminate fractional reserve lending. Those are things a president can do, without support of Congress, and I will do them if elected. If you like that platform, please write-in "Mish" in November. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. 
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