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The other day, after a talk to some graduate students at the Julliard School, one asked, "In The Dip, you talk about the advantage of mastery vs. being a mediocre jack of all trades. So does it make sense for me to continue focusing on mastering the violin?"
Without fear of error, I think it's easy to say that this woman will never become the best violinist in the world. That's because it's essentially impossible to be the one and only best violinist in the world. There might be 5,000 or 10,000 people who are so technically good at it as to be indistinguishable to all but a handful of orchestra listeners. This is true for many competitive fields--we might want to fool ourselves into thinking that we have become the one and only best at a technical skill, but it's extremely unlikely.
The quest for technical best is a form of hiding. You can hide from the marketplace because you're still practicing your technique. And you can hide from the hard work of real art and real connection because you decide that success lies in being the best technically, at getting a 99 instead of a 98 on an exam.
What we can become the best at is being an idiosyncratic exception to the standard. Joshua Bell is often mentioned (when violinists are mentioned at all) not because he is technically better than every other violinst, but because of his charisma and willingness to cross categories. He's the best in the world at being Josh Bell, not the best in the world at playing the violin.
The same trap happens to people who are coding in Java, designing furniture or training to be a corporate coach. It's a seductive form of self motivation, the notion that we can push and push and stay inside the lines and through sheer will, become technically perfect and thus in demand. Alas, it's not going to happen for most of us.
[The flipside of this are the practioners who bolster themselves up by claiming that they are, in fact, the most technically adept in the world. In my experience, they're fibbing to themselves when they'd be better off taking the time and effort to practice their craft. Just saying it doesn't make it so.]
Until we're honest withourselves about what we're going to master, there's no chance we'll accomplish it.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Detroit May Run Out of Cash Next Month, Unable to Meet Payroll, Situation Worse than Reported Posted: 16 Nov 2011 07:53 PM PST Michigan Live reports Detroit could run out of cash in December, plan must include layoffs Bing is expected to discuss a confidential Ernst & Young report obtained by the Detroit Free Press that suggests Detroit could run out of cash by April without steep cuts to staff and public services.Expect to see more stories like these, just as I have said for years. Many major cities are walking dead including Oakland, Miami, Cleveland, Houston, Los Angeles, Newark, and quite frankly too many to list. Public unions, untenable union wages and benefits, and prevailing wage laws coupled with politicians buying votes of public union members are to blame for most of this mess. Bankruptcy, huge clawbacks on public union benefits, scrapping of all prevailing wages laws, and the end of all collective bargaining of public unions are the solutions. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 16 Nov 2011 05:18 PM PST President Obama believes saving the Euro is a matter of "political will". Apparently 17 nation treaties are meant to be broken, ignored, or easily adjusted. That's what French president Nicolas Sarkozy thinks as well. Meanwhile in a rare statement from a central banker that I agree with, Mervyn King explains the Harsh Truth about the Meaning of "Lender of Last Resort" The European Central Bank is under pressure to bail out indebted countries by printing more euros. But it really isn't as straightforward as that.Obama Accuses Eurozone of "Problem of Political Will" Inquiring minds are reading Eurozone bond markets in turmoil as France and Germany dig in over ECB The row between France and Germany over whether to use the European Central Bank to rescue the eurozone has intensified, further shattering international confidence that a solution can be found to the escalating debt crisis.In contrast to the unusually clear thinking by the Bank of England, Obama offers meaningless platitudes about what should be done, ignoring what can be done. More importantly Obama did not address the question as to why the Euro should be saved in the first place. The concept is fundamentally flawed and was doomed from the start, just as Euro skeptics said over a decade ago. Rather than face that simple truth, European leaders and now president Obama want to save the unsavable. Tensions Heat Up The Guardian article continues ... Tension between France and Germany was behind much of the market turbulence, traders said.Wolfgang Schäuble is a wishy-washy figure who at times makes sense. This is one of those times. However, he cannot be trusted as noted by these Schäuble Flip-Flops courtesy of Google Translate. 21st December 2009Nonetheless, as long as Schäuble makes sense I will be happy to point it out. When he caves in to political pressure, I will point that out as well. Bond auctions are coming up tomorrow (Thursday) for Spain and France. All hell might break loose. If it doesn't on Thursday, it will soon. This crisis is rapidly coming to a head but no solution is being discussed. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Bond Market Gives Overwhelming Vote of "No Confidence" in New Greek Technocrat Prime Minister Posted: 16 Nov 2011 02:33 PM PST The Guardian Business Blog reports 5.18pm: The results are in from Greece, and the new unity government has received an overwhelming vote of confidence.Quite frankly that is not the vote of confidence that matters. This is the vote of confidence that matters. Greek 1-Year Bond Yields The Bloomberg link to Greek 1-year bonds shows the pertinent information even if their chart does not. A 1-year bond yield approaching 300% is decidedly not a vote of confidence. Yield: +20.74 Basis Points Yield: 271.50 Percent ![]() As an aside, I need to find a new source for European sovereign debt charts. Bloomberg replaced their previously nice looking chart system with a new interactive map that does not look nice and is still out of date. The Bloomberg charts are better than nothing, and they are free, but they are also sloppy and nowhere near as good as the previous chart format that accurately showed the day's action in a visually pleasing manner, even though the corresponding chart was incorrect. The interactive map is a nice option, but does nothing for a point in time clip, especially if the chart is not even accurate. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 16 Nov 2011 11:25 AM PST Banks keep investors in the dark on trillions of dollars of derivatives risk by only reporting net exposure. Here is a net exposure example to show what I mean. Suppose I owe my sister Sue $250,000 and Uncle Ernie owes me $250,000. My net position would appear to be zero. But what if uncle Ernie is bankrupt or simply will never pay the loan back for any reason. I cannot tell Sister Sue, "I am not paying you back, collect from Uncle Ernie". Net position reporting only works if counterparty risk is zero. In my example counterparty risk from uncle Ernie is 100%. So what is the counterparty risk at JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs on tens of trillions of derivatives contracts? The answer is no one can possibly figure it out, on purpose, because banks are only required to disclose "net" exposure. JPMorgan, Goldman Keep Risk in Dark With that backdrop, please consider JPMorgan, Goldman Keep Italy Risk in Dark JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS), among the world's biggest traders of credit derivatives, disclosed to shareholders that they have sold protection on more than $5 trillion of debt globally. The "Investment-Grade" Non-Guarantee By the way, investors are kept in the dark on derivatives risk in general, not just on exposure to Europe. By now, everyone should know how useless an AAA-rated guarantee is, let alone "investment-grade" that may be one step above junk. How long did GM bonds sit as "investment-grade"? Nonetheless the article reports JPMorgan buys protection only from firms outside the five countries that are "either investment-grade or well-supported by collateral arrangements" as if that was supposed to alleviate concerns. "Well-supported by collateral" is one thing; relying on "investment-grade" is another. Uncle Ernie was investment-grade when I made the loan. He is bankrupt now. Greece was "investment grade" and Greece is bankrupt now. "Investment-grade" is a useless measure of risk that "nets" to zero disclosure of the true-risk taken by derivatives-king JP Morgan, Godlman Sachs, Citigroup, Bank of America and any other bank attempting to pull the wool over investor's eyes with meaningless phrases instead of full disclosure. By the way, what are these organizations doing with tens-of-trillions of derivatives in the first place? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 16 Nov 2011 08:31 AM PST An official for the Bank of Italy says Bonds Bids, Offers Show Government Bond Market "Frozen". Spreads between bid and ask government bond prices indicate markets are "frozen," said Franco Passacantando, Bank of Italy's Managing Director for Central Banking, Markets and Payment System in Milan today.ECB Steps in But Rally Fails to Hold Yield on 10-Year Italian bonds opened above 7% for the second consecutive day but the ECB acting as buyer of only result stepped in to push the yield down to 6.75%. The rally failed to hold, and the 10-year Italian bond yield now sits at 6.95%. Bloomberg reports Italian Yields at 7 Percent for Second Day as ECB Rally Fails to Hold Italian five- and 10-year bonds yielded more than 7 percent for a second day as the securities failed to hold an earlier advance after the European Central Bank was said to step up purchases of the nation's debt."Risk-Free" Market is Frozen A quick check shows Spanish 10-Year bonds at 6.40%, the high yield of the day, up about 6 basis points. Spanish 2-year government bonds yield 5.40%, up 10 basis points and also at the high of the day. Bond Market Spits in ECB's Face Spanish 5-year bonds opened at 5.82%, a euro-era tie for record high, improved to 5.62% but now sit at 5.77% back close to the high. The bond market is effectively spitting in the ECBs face. Please recall that European banks are leveraged to the hilt on these bonds, because they are considered "risk free", with zero chance of default. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 16 Nov 2011 12:50 AM PST It's now a four-way virtual dead heat in the Iowa caucuses with Ron Paul clustered in the group at the top. This is in spite of lack of media attention by the press, especially Fox News which gave Ron Paul a 5-second mention regarding recent polls. Ron Paul Moves Into 4-Way Tie CBS News reports New poll shows 4-way tie in Iowa as Ron Paul moves to top tier A new Bloomberg poll of likely caucus participants shows a four-way tie in Iowa, with Rep. Ron Paul joining Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich and Herman Cain in the top tier of candidates. Underscoring the uncertainty in the race, 60 percent of respondents said they could be persuaded to back someone other than their first choice for the nomination.Republican Dead Heat in Iowa Bloomberg reports on the Republican Dead Heat in Iowa A Bloomberg News poll shows Cain at 20 percent, Paul at 19 percent, Romney at 18 percent and Gingrich at 17 percent among the likely attendees with the caucuses that start the nominating contests seven weeks away.Fox News Gives Ron Paul 5 Seconds Huntington News reports Fox News Gives Paul Five Second Mention Based on the most recent Iowa caucuses Bloomberg News poll, the four Republican candidates are running a too close to call race. The poll taken Nov. 10-12 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%. Herman Cain leads with 20%, followed by Ron Paul 19%, Mitt Romney 18% and Newt Gingrich 17%. According to the poll, 71% of the caucus goers have "fiscal" issues on their minds not social or constitutional ones.The Ron Paul "Distraction" RT News discusses the "Ron Paul Distraction" Less than two months before the Iowa caucuses occur — the next monumental step in the course of events leading up to the Republican Party makes their nomination for the presidency — Texas Congressman Ron Paul has taken the lead in the latest poll. The "Real" Distractions The "real" distractions are Herman Cain and his sexual allegations, Newt Gingrich with three marriages and a record of failed leadership, Rick Perry who cannot even remember his own three-point proposal to cut government departments, and war-mongering Mitt Romney who does not know an damn thing about trade policy but did create the essential basis of Obama's reviled health care plan. Ron Paul has no such distractions, and that is why the media ignores him in general. Fox News ignores Paul for a different reason: Fox News favors a war monger, which means anyone but Ron Paul. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 16 Nov 2011 12:29 AM PST The selloff in European debt continues. Were it not for the ECB loading up its balance sheet with the garbage, no telling how high yields would be. Nonetheless, Spanish Five-Year Government Note Yield Increases to Euro-Era Record 5.82% Spanish five-year notes fell for a third straight day, driving the yield 11 basis points higher to 5.82 percent at 7:35 a.m. London time. That's the highest since before the euro was created in 1999.Expect the ECB to intervene any time now, probably as I am typing at 2:30 AM Central. However, don't expect ECB intervention to do any long-term good, because it won't. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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Drivelapse USA, Time-Lapse Video of Entire USA Road Trip in 5 Minutes Posted: 16 Nov 2011 07:29 PM PST ![]() Twenty-five year old Brian DeFrees took a two month roadtrip across America in his Honda Civic. The freelance photographer took footage of the 12,000 plus mile trip, and compressed it all into a five minute timelapse video. Now you can literally go across America from sea to shining sea in five minutes instead of two months. The video is going viral across the net, and is featured on DailyMail. |
10 Weirdest and Ridiculous College Mascots Posted: 16 Nov 2011 06:37 PM PST A school's mascot is a symbol of pride and unity that students can rally behind. Anybody can have a wolf or a bear as their college mascot, but these schools have taken it upon themselves to have the most unique mascots ever. They are memorable to say the least! Has your school got a weird mascot? Add it in the comments. 1. University of California at Santa Cruz - The Banana Slug ![]() ![]() 2. Evergreen State - The Geoduck ![]() ![]() 3. University of Arkansas Monticello - The Boll Weevil ![]() ![]() 4. Trinity Christian College - Troll ![]() ![]() 5. North Carolina School of the Arts - The Fighting Pickle ![]() ![]() 6. Delta State University - The Fighting Okra ![]() ![]() 7. Presbyterian College - Blue Hose ![]() ![]() 8. Wichita State University - WuShock the Shocker ![]() ![]() 9. Western Kentucky University - Big Red ![]() ![]() 10. Stanford - Tree ![]() ![]() Source: buzzfeed |
Back to the Future Project by Irina Werning Posted: 16 Nov 2011 01:01 PM PST Irina Werning has recreated a series called "Back to the Future 2," shooting photos of people reenacting portraits of themselves from 20+ years earlier. The Buenos Aires-based Werning writes of the project: "I love old photos. I admit being a nosey photographer. As soon as I step into someone else's house, I start sniffing for them. Most of us are fascinated by their retro look but to me, it's imagining how people would feel and look like if they were to reenact them today... A few months ago, I decided to actually do this. So, with my camera, I started inviting people to go back to their future." Alexandra 1970 & 2011 Paris ![]() Andy 1964 & 2011 Los Angeles ![]() Campbell Twins 1976 & 2011 London ![]() Carli 1990 & 2011 Buenos Aires ![]() Carol 1960 & 2011 NY ![]() Christoph 1990 & 2011 Berlin Wall ![]() Daphne 1986 & 2011 Paris ![]() Devoto brothers 1990 & 2011 Buenos ![]() Diego 1970 & 2011 Buenos Aires ![]() Evan 1957 & 2011 NY ![]() Fer 1981 & 2011 Buenos Aires ![]() Giorgio 1982 & 2011 Paris ![]() Johannes 1994 & 2011 Hambourg ![]() Juan Carlos 1982 & 2011 Buenos Aires ![]() Lea B 1980 & 2011 Paris ![]() Maria Jose 1983 & 2011 Buenos Aires ![]() May 1985 & 2011 Buenos Aires ![]() Patrick 1986 & 2011 Paris ![]() Patrick B 1982 & 2011 Berlin ![]() Puna 2003 & 2011 Buenos Aires ![]() Riff Raff 1976 & 2011 London ![]() Sander 1983 & 2011 Rotterdam ![]() Sarah and Jim 1986 & 2011 Boston ![]() Seba 1986 & 2011 Patagonia ![]() Sole 1988 & 2011 Buenos Aires ![]() Sonia y Laurita 1998 & 2011 Buenos ![]() The Zurbanos 1999 & 2011 Buenos Air ![]() Violeta 1981 & 2011 Buenos Aires ![]() Marcela 1970 & 2011 Buenos Aires ![]() Lea T 1995 & 2011 Paris ![]() |
Visualization of Blood Alcohol Content (BAC) [infographic] Posted: 16 Nov 2011 12:43 PM PST ![]() You may be drunker than you think, it doesn't take many drinks to impair your abilities and risk your health. Here we illustrate the various impacts of a 170 lbs. man consuming one drink every twenty minutes. To approximate for a woman, add one drink to her actual consumption (e.g. 5 femal drinks consumed = 6 on the chart below). Click on Image to Enlarge. ![]() Source: sober |
Run Against Ryan Ad, the Olympic Marathoner Posted: 15 Nov 2011 11:13 PM PST ![]() Next time you're in New York and waiting for the subway, why not take some time to exercise? You can do just that with this Asics-sponsered ad installation, which shows a video of US marathoner Ryan Hall in action. Don't beat yourself up if you lose, though. First, he's really good. Second, the Ryan on-screen is about a foot taller than real-life Ryan. |
Posted: 15 Nov 2011 10:01 PM PST Magic Mountain Lodge, is a beautifully constructed hotel on the privately owned natural reserve of Huilo Huilo in Chile. Covered in rainforest moss and vines, this manmade volcano-like structure spews water and is only accessible by a monkey bridge. And if this isn't sufficiently magical and surreal, outside are hot tubs, carved from hollowed out tree trunks, with ideal vantage points for wildlife sightings. A night at this hotel will cost you around $250 to $400 per night, but who can put a price on a once-in-a-lifetime experience like this? ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
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