Central Perk

joi, 31 iulie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"Nancy's VoiceBox", Lou Gehrig's Disease, Google Glass
Driverless Cars on UK Public Streets Starting January; Transforming Personal Mobility; Taxi and Truck-Drivers Targeted
Sanctions Starting to Bite the Hands That Promoted Them

"Nancy's VoiceBox", Lou Gehrig's Disease, Google Glass

Posted: 31 Jul 2014 08:44 PM PDT

Occasionally I receive a touching email that also offers a practical solution to extreme challenges. This is one of those times. Please consider this email from reader "Zentangle".

Hi Mish,

I have been following your blog for years now. Time is precious and not many writers "stick" . . . but you have. Thank you for your insights and passion throughout the years.

Your stories of your wife's and your struggle with ALS had a powerful impact because during that time a dear friend and employee, Nancy, was in the same struggle.

My wife and I worked out a novel way for Nancy to communicate. We just posted a blog about it and I wanted you to be the first person I told.

With our belated sympathies, gratitude and heartfelt best wishes,

Rick Roberts & Maria Thomas

Zentangle

Let's hop over to Zentangle's most recent blog entry, simply labeled "ALS".

The article notes how Maria Thomas came up with an idea to get around the ALS communication problem.

I went through the same things.

My wife Joanne could not talk but she could write. Then she lost that ability but could manage to push a button say select phrases. Then everything went.

With that personal background, here is the idea that Maria Thomas came up with after several months of unsuccessfully trying to use a very expensive, speech-generating device (basically a computer with technology that tracked eye movements).

From Zentangle ...

She [Maria] lettered the alphabet, numbers and some key phrases on a large 3 x 4 foot piece of 1/2 inch foam board. I ordered a bunch of laser pointers. We got a pair of Nancy's sunglasses and removed the lenses. We used electrical tape to attached two small laser pointers with switches (so they would stay on without keeping them pressed in) to Nancy's eyeglass frames. We used two laser pointers so the frames were balanced, and if a battery ran out in one laser, the other could be immediately turned on.

Because the board was placed across the room from her, all Nancy had to do was move her head ever so slightly to point out the letters. The large board enabled Nancy to speak to the whole room or to one person. It worked perfectly from the very first minute she used it.

We remember fondly when we first set it up, that in spite of her circumstances, one of her first "spellings" was to tell a joke to her husband.

Suddenly, the Nancy we all knew was back . . . chatting, teasing and cracking jokes. She could "talk" again with her beloved husband, her family and her friends.

Nancy used her board to communicate with her family for months until just hours before she left.

The laser pointers were about $9 each. We had the foam board in our studio (a 40 x 60 inch half-inch thick foam board costs about $25). We used an old pair of Nancy's glasses. Total cost: about $45.

Her care givers had not seen anything like this before. As far as we know, this idea was not in use in this circumstance.

In Nancy Sampson's memory, please share this idea with anyone you know who can use it. This idea is made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike License.

In her memory, we call it "Nancy's VoiceBox."

We love you, Nancy!

"Nancy's VoiceBox"

Google Glass

Nancy's Voicebox is a fantastic idea. But I think we can easily improve on it.

The problem I see is that "Nancy" (anyone with ALS), might not have the ability to turn their head and point a laser at a word or phrase.

The obvious solution is Google Glass. As long as someone can move their eye just a slight bit (something they probably can do) Google Glass will work.

I believe Steve Hawking, renown theoretical physicist could greatly benefit from such a device.

I am going to pass this on to my contacts at Google, and also to the Les Turner ALS foundation.

Mish Experiences

Those interested in my experiences with Lou Gherig's disease can read about them here ...

April 2, 2012: My Wife Joanne Has ALS, Lou Gehrig's Disease
May 16, 2012: My Wife Joanne Has Passed Away; Stop and Smell the Lilacs
May 14, 2013: Wine Country Conference Speaker Presentations All Posted (Hussman, Chanos, Martenson, Pettis, Mauldin, Mish)

In honor of Joanne and Nancy, please consider making a Donation to the Les Turner ALS foundation.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Driverless Cars on UK Public Streets Starting January; Transforming Personal Mobility; Taxi and Truck-Drivers Targeted

Posted: 31 Jul 2014 01:04 PM PDT

The march for fully autonomous driverless cars marches on. In May, Google announced the Next Phase in Driverless Cars: No Steering Wheel or Brake Pedals.

Google's prototype for its new cars will limit them to a top speed of 25 miles per hour. The cars are intended for driving in urban and suburban settings, not on highways. The low speed will probably keep the cars out of more restrictive regulatory categories for vehicles, giving them more design flexibility.

Google is having 100 cars built by a manufacturer in the Detroit area, which it declined to name. Nor would it say how much the prototype vehicles cost. They will have a range of about 100 miles, powered by an electric motor that is roughly equivalent to the one used by Fiat's 500e, Dr. Urmson said. They should be road-ready by early next year, Google said.

Google hopes to persuade regulators that the cars can operate safely without driver, steering wheel, brake or accelerator pedal. Those cars would rely entirely on Google sensors and software to control them.

Taxis Targeted

Google's cars come equipped with elaborate sensors that can see 600 feet in every direction, are fully electric, and have a range of about 100 miles, perfect for city use, especially driverless taxi cabs. Google plans for 2017 operation.

Last year, Lawrence D. Burns, former vice president for research and development at General Motors and now a Google consultant, led a study at the Earth Institute at Columbia University on transforming personal mobility.

The researchers found that Manhattan's 13,000 taxis made 470,000 trips a day. Their average speed was 10 to 11 m.p.h., carrying an average of 1.4 passengers per trip with an average wait time of five minutes.

In comparison, the report said, it is possible for a futuristic robot fleet of 9,000 shared automated vehicles hailed by smartphone to match that capacity with a wait time of less than one minute. Assuming a 15 percent profit, the current cost of taxi service would be about $4 per trip mile, while in contrast, it was estimated, a Manhattan-based driverless vehicle fleet would cost about 50 cents per mile.

Driverless Cars on UK Public Streets Starting January

The BBC reports UK to Allow Driverless Cars on Public Roads in January.

The UK government has announced that driverless cars will be allowed on public roads from January next year. It also invited cities to compete to host one of three trials of the tech, which would start at the same time.

Business Secretary Vince Cable revealed the details of the new plan at a research facility belonging to Mira, an automotive engineering firm based in the Midlands.

"Today's announcement will see driverless cars take to our streets in less than six months, putting us at the forefront of this transformational technology and opening up new opportunities for our economy and society," he said.

The US States of California, Nevada and Florida have all approved tests of the vehicles. In California alone, Google's driverless car has done more than 300,000 miles on the open road.

In 2013, Nissan carried out Japan's first public road test of an autonomous vehicle on a highway.

And in Europe, the Swedish city of Gothenburg has given Volvo permission to test 100 driverless cars - although that trial is not scheduled to occur until 2017.

Competition cash

UK cities wanting to host one of the trials have until the start of October to declare their interest. The tests are then intended to run for between 18 to 36 months. A £10m fund has been created to cover their costs, with the sum to be divided between the three winners. Meanwhile, civil servants have been given until the end of this year to publish a review of road regulations.

Taxi, Truck Drivers First To Go

Taxi drivers, truck drivers, and mining operators will be the first to go. I have written about this many times, and was largely dissed.

But the future advances relentlessly. My target of 2020 no longer looks optimistic; it looks pessimistic.

Further Discussion

Cars: Driverless Cars Legally Hit Roads as California Issues Licenses; The Last Mile
Trucks: Robot Truck Convoy Tests in Nevada; Driverless Trucks Before Cars, and Before the End of the Decade
Ships: Are Drone, Workerless Ocean Freight Ships Coming? What About Jobs? Insurance? Inflation?
Parking Robots: Meet "Ray" Your Valet Parking Robot

All of the above will be in widespread usage by 2020. Personal cars will likely be the last affected. Taxis and commercial trucks will be first because eliminating the driver eliminates a huge expense.

Millions of drivers will lose their jobs. Inflationary? Hardly.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Sanctions Starting to Bite the Hands That Promoted Them

Posted: 31 Jul 2014 11:27 AM PDT

As I have said on numerous occasions, sanctions are a lose-lose game. So it is not surprising in the least to discover Russian Crisis Already Taking Toll on Western Businesses.

Shares in Adidas, the world's second-largest sportswear group, dropped 15 per cent after the company issued a profit warning and said it would accelerate the closure of stores in Russia because of increasing risks to consumer spending in the region.
Volkswagen, Europe's biggest carmaker by sales, reported an 8 per cent decline in sales in Russia in the first half of the year, compared to the same period a year earlier.
Joe Kaeser, chief executive of Siemens, warned geopolitical tensions including those in Ukraine posed "serious risks" for Europe's growth this year and next.
Metro, the eurozone's second-largest retailer, said events in Russia were creating risks for the group as it revealed sales had declined sharply in Ukraine.
Royal Dutch Shell's chief executive Ben van Beurden said that along with other western oil majors he was assessing the impact of tightening sanctions on Russia's energy sector imposed by the US and EU.
Erste Group, the third-largest lender in emerging Europe, warned the turmoil could impact banks in eastern Europe. "I can't exclude any nasty surprises in the region due to political decisions or developments," said Erste chief executive Andreas Treichl. "If the crisis accelerates of course we will have to revise our forecast for all over Europe in 2015 and 2016."
The German machinery association, VDMA, lowered its forecast for growth in the industry this year as it said the Russian situation was starting to affect bilateral trade and weigh on demand in important sales markets.
Last week, Visa cut its fourth-quarter sales guidance, partially because of lower than expected cross-border transactions in Russia and Ukraine.
Bank of America has almost halved its exposure to Russia this year to $3.9bn.
ExxonMobil, which is developing a large liquefied natural gas export facility at Sakhalin in Russia's far east, said it was awaiting further details to understand the effect of sanctions designed in part to prevent the transfer of new technology to Russia's oil and gas industry.
In the City of London, bankers warned it was not feasible for Russian companies to list on the London Stock Exchange until a de-escalation of the crisis.

Russian Response

Bloomberg reports Russia Eyes Banning U.S. Chicken And Some European Fruit.

Facing tougher sanctions over Ukraine, Russia said yesterday it may ban imports of chicken from the U.S. and fruit from Europe and is investigating McDonald's Corp. (MCD) cheese for safety.

Meanwhile, a Russian lawmaker has drafted legislation that might result in U.S. accounting firms such as Deloitte LLP and KPMG LLP being barred from doing business in his country.

While Russia and the U.S. have long sparred over agricultural trade, the actions fueled speculation they could be retaliatory. The 28-nation European Union and the U.S. plan to impose stiffer sanctions to punish Russian President Vladimir Putin's government.

"It's a troubling continuation/expansion of trade as a geopolitical tool," Gary Blumenthal, president of World Perspectives Inc., a Washington-based agricultural consulting firm, said in a phone interview.

Geopolitical Madness

Sanctions are a form of Chicken Coupled With M.A.D.

So far, the damage is minimal, but if Putin angrily cuts off natural gas flows to Europe, or raises prices in response, all hell will break lose.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

President Obama's walk down Main Street

Thursday, July 31, 2014

President Obama's walk down Main Street

President Obama traveled to Kansas City, Missouri this week -- where he grabbed some BBQ with Americans who had written him letters, and delivered a speech about how he's working to get things done for hardworking Americans even as Congress chooses not to act to move this country forward.

And before he left, the President took a walk down Main Street (literally), spending time with store owners, touring an antique watch shop, and chatting with customers at a local coffee shop.

We got it all on video, and we think you'll want to see it -- watch, then pass it on:

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BBQ, Iced Tea, and the Economy

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BBQ, Iced Tea, and the Economy

President Obama just got back from Kansas City, Missouri, where he grabbed BBQ with some letter writers, picked up an iced tea at Parkville Coffee, and chatted with employees at Peddlers Wagon, a quilt and gift shop.

In the middle of meeting with everyday folks and chowing down on BBQ, the President spoke to a fired-up crowd about the progress our economy has made since he took office and how Republican obstructionism in Congress is hurting hard-working Americans.

He focused especially on how Republicans in Congress continue to do nothing to move this country forward -- like creating jobs or renewing the Highway Trust Fund -- and instead focus on political stunts, like suing the President for doing his job.

Watch what the President had to say, and see how he's continuing to make progress, even without the help of Congress.

President Barack Obama greets audience members after he delivered remarks on the economy at Uptown Theater in Kansas City, Mo., July 30, 2014. (Official White House Photo by Amanda Lucidon)

The Month Google Shook the SERPs

Posted: 30 Jul 2014 05:18 PM PDT

Posted by Dr-Pete

As a group, we SEOs still tend to focus most of our attention on just one place – traditional, organic results. In the past two years, I've spent a lot of time studying these results and how they change over time. The more I experience the reality of SERPs in the wild, though, the more I've become interested in situations like this one (a search for "diabetes symptoms")...

See the single blue link and half-snippet on the bottom-left? That's the only thing about this above-the-fold page that most SEOs in 2014 would call "organic". Of course, it's easy to find fringe cases, but the deeper I dig into the feature landscape that surrounds and fundamentally alters SERPs, the more I find that the exceptions are inching gradually closer to the rule.

Monday, July 28th was my 44th birthday, and I think Google must have decided to celebrate by giving me extra work (hooray for job security?). In the month between June 28th and July 28th, there were four major shake-ups to the SERPs, all of them happening beyond traditional, organic results. This post is a recap of our data on each of those shake-ups.

Authorship photos disappear (June 28)

On June 25th, Google's John Mueller made a surprise announcement via Google+:

We had seen authorship shake-ups in the past, but the largest recent drop had measured around 15%. It was clear that Google was rethinking the prevalence of author photos and their impact on perceived quality, but most of us assumed this would be a process of small tweaks. Given Google's push toward Google+ and its inherent tie-in with authorship, not a single SEO I know had predicted a complete loss of authorship photos.

Yet, over the next few days, culminating on the morning of June 28th, a total loss of authorship photos is exactly what happened:

While some authorship photos still appeared in personalized results, the profile photos completely disappeared from general results, after previously being present on about 21% of the SERPs that MozCast tracks. It's important to note that the concept of authorship remains, and author bylines are still being shown (we track that at about 24%, as of this writing), but the overall visual impact was dramatic for many SERPs.

In-depth gets deeper (July 2nd)

Most SEOs still don't pay much attention to Google's "In-depth Articles," but they've been slowly gain SERP share. When we first started tracking them, they popped up on about 3.5% of the searches MozCast covers. This data seems to only get updated periodically, and the number had grown to roughly 6.0% by the end of June 2014. On the morning of July 2nd, I (and, seemingly, everyone else), missed a major change:

Overnight, the presence of in-depth articles jumped from 6.0% to 12.7%, more than doubling (a +112% increase, to be precise). Some examples of queries that gained in-depth articles include:

xbox 360
hotels
raspberry pi
samsung galaxy tab
job search
pilates
payday loans
apartments
car sales
web design

Here's an example set of in-depth for a term SEOs know all too well, "payday loans":

The motivation for this change is unclear, and it comes even as Google continues to test designs with pared down in-depth results (almost all of their tests seem to take up less space than the current design). Doubling this feature hardly indicates a lack of confidence, though, and many competitive terms are now showing in-depth results.

Video looks more like radio (July 16th)

Just a couple of weeks after the authorship drop, we saw a smaller but still significant shake-up in video results, with about 28% of results MozCast tracks losing video thumbnails:

As you can see, the presence of thumbnails does vary day-to-day, but the two plateaus, before and after June 16th, are clear here. At this point, the new number seems to be holding.

Since our data doesn't connect the video thumbnails to specific results, it's tough to say if this change indicates a removal of thumbnails or a drop in rankings for video results overall. Considering how smaller drops in authorship signaled a much larger change down the road, I think this shift deserves more attention. It could be that Google is generally questioning the value and prevalence of rich snippets, especially when quality concerns come into play.

I originally hypothesized that this might not be a true loss, but could be a sign that some video snippets were switching to the new "mega-video" format (or video answer box, if you prefer). This does not appear to be the case, as the larger video format is still fairly uncommon, and the numbers don't match up.

For reference, here's a mega-video format (for the query "bartender"):

Mega-videos are appearing on such seemingly generic queries as "partition", "headlights", and "california king bed". If you have the budget and really want to dominate the SERPs, try writing a pop song.

Pigeons attack local results (July 24th)

By now, many of you have heard of Google's "Pigeon" update. The Pigeon update hit local SERPs hard and seems to have dramatically changed how Google determines and uses a searcher's location. Local search is more than an algorithmic layer, though – it's also a feature set. When Pigeon hit, we saw a sharp decline in local "pack" results (the groups of 2-7 pinned local results):

We initially reported that pack results dropped more than 60% after the Pigeon update. We now are convinced that this was a mistake (indicated by the "?" zone) – essentially, Pigeon changed localization so much that it broke the method we were using. We've found a new method that seems to match manually setting your location, and the numbers for July 29-30 are, to the best of my knowledge, accurate.

According to these new numbers, local pack results have fallen 23.4% (in our data set) after the Pigeon update. This is the exact same number Darren Shaw of WhiteSpark found, using a completely different data set and methodology. The perfect match between those two numbers is probably a bit of luck, but they suggest that we're at least on the right track. While I over-reported the initial drop, and I apologize for any confusion that may have caused, the corrected reality still shows a substantial change in pack results.

It's important to note that this 23.4% drop is a net change – among queries, there were both losers and winners. Here are 10 searches that lost pack results (and have been manually verified):

jobs
cars for sale
apartments
cruises
train tickets
sofa
wheels
liposuction
social security card
motorcycle helmets

A couple of important notes – first, some searches that lost packs only lost packs in certain regions. Second, Pigeon is a very recent update and may still be rolling out or being tweaked. This is only the state of the data as we know it today.

Here are 10 searches that gained pack results (in our data set):

skechers
mortgage
apartments for rent
web designer
long john silvers
lamps
mystic
make a wish foundation
va hospital
internet service

The search for "mystic" is an interesting example – no matter what your location (if you're in the US), Google is showing a pack result for Mystic, CT. This pattern seems to be popping up across the Pigeon update. For example, a search for "California Pizza Kitchen" automatically targets California, regardless of your location (h/t Tony Verre), and a search for "Buffalo Wild Wings" sends you to Buffalo, NY (h/t Andrew Mitschke).

Of course, local search is complex, and it seems like Google is trying to do a lot in one update. The simple fact that a search for "apartments" lost pack results in our data, while "apartments for rent" gained them, shows that the Pigeon update isn't based on a few simplistic rules.

Some local SEOs have commented that Pigeon seemed to increase the number of smaller packs (2-3 results). Looking at the data for pack size before and after Pigeon, this is what we're seeing:

Both before and after Pigeon, there are no 1-packs, and 4-, 5-, and 6-packs are relatively rare. After Pigeon, the distribution of 2-packs is similar, but there is a notable jump in 3-packs and a corresponding decrease in 7-packs. The total number of 3-packs actually increased after the Pigeon update. While our data set (once we restrict it to just searches with pack results) is fairly small, this data does seem to match the observations of local SEOs.

Sleep with one eye open

Ok, maybe that's a bit melodramatic. All of the changes do go to show, though, that, if you're laser-focused on ranking alone, you may be missing a lot. We as SEOs not only need to look beyond our own tunnel vision, we need to start paying more attention to post-ranking data, like CTR and search traffic. SERPs are getting richer and more dynamic, and Google can change the rules overnight.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

LinkedIn: How to spark more engagement with your followers

Posted: 29 Jul 2014 01:14 AM PDT

Do you want to create more engagement with your LinkedIn followers?

As we found out in April of this year, LinkedIn company pages underwent a major change. The products and services section was removed, much to people's disappointment as this was a logical place for companies to showcase their products and services. But don't let the fact they’ve disappeared throw you into disarray, LinkedIn still offers plenty of benefits for your company.

Why use a LinkedIn Company page?

LinkedIn is now responsible for a whopping 64% of all visits from social media channels to corporate websites. In contrast, Facebook accounts for around 17% of such visits, while Twitter is a mere 14%.
There are 148 million different industries represented on company pages
There are now over 3 million LinkedIn company pages

So how can we use LinkedIn to engage with our followers?

#1 – Post More

Ever wondered why no one likes or comments on your company updates? A lot of us are guilty of posting LinkedIn updates only once or twice a week, but that is probably why we often see little to no engagement.

LinkedIn has found that 20 posts per month can help you reach 60% of your unique audience. In contrast, when you only post occasionally, your single post only reaches 20% of your audience. Why only 20%? The less frequent you post, the less you’ll show up on your audiences home feed. The more you post, the more chance your updates have of being seen. Don’t post too frequently though as this can be annoying!

If you’re not sure on what to post, I found this infographic that can help you understand the elements of a LinkedIn update.

Key takeaway - A frequent posting schedule will help you reach more people, more often.

#2 – Be More Visual

"A picture is worth a thousand words". It might be a major cliché but this holds truth on LinkedIn. Images make your company page much more attractive to your current and potential followers and as a result, they are more likely to engage with your content.

Don’t forget to use a relevant and compelling image in your banner as well as your updates to boost your visibility to your audience.

Key takeaway: Use a compelling image in your LinkedIn company page banner as well as in your updates.

#3 – Show & Tell

toms video

Online video is growing at a significant rate. Gone are the days when companies could use chunks of text. Users want more creative ways to engage!

1. In 2013, over 52 billion videos were viewed online
2. 52% of customers say that watching videos of products makes them more confident in online purchasing decisions.

There are a variety of ways to take your LinkedIn videos to the next level.

Short Videos

Typically less than 15 seconds, these can be used to focus your message. You can use them to showcase a book, demonstrate how a product works. Vine and Instagram videos work well to create these videos.

Event videos

Think of these as testimonials as opposed to ads. These contain the best parts of your company, your products and your customers. They aren't an outright advertisement.

Interview videos

Q&A videos let you highlight your relationship with industry experts whether you are interviewing a person outside of your company or an employee.

Key takeaway: your followers are looking for something more creative than just paragraphs of text. Mix your page up with videos!

#4 – Showcase Pages

Showcase pages are relatively new and are definitely an exciting addition to this social platform. These pages let you customise your messages and engage different audience segments based on their product interest. For example, Hp have a range of products and they use showcase pages to target their different segments of audience.

Key takeaway: Create showcases to make sure your customers can easily learn about the product or services that interests them the most.

#5 – Engagement

Many of your followers have followed you as a way to interact with you. Ask people questions and reply to their answers. It's a good way to test how people perceive your products or services and can give you inspiration for new products.

Hootsuite posted an update that asked its followers to share the social media story that was most memorable to them in 2013. This is a great way to spark conversations between you as industry experts and your audience.

Key takeaway – LinkedIn may be a professional networking space, but don't forget that it is also a social network. Make that effort to communicate with your followers through updates and responses.

#6 – Add the follow button

LinkedIn's developers page makes it easy to create and add a 'follow us' button to your company website. You simply type your name in the appropriate field, choose your button style and copy the code to your website.

Key takeaway - Take advantage of this resource and let your audience know where they can find and engage with you!

Do you have any tips to add? Have you used any of these tactics on your company page? Let me know in the comments or by tweeting me @KLBennett_

Image Credit

The post LinkedIn: How to spark more engagement with your followers appeared first on White.net.

Seth's Blog : Trading favors

Trading favors

Those people who owe you—because you mowed their lawn, drove carpool, promoted their site, gave them advice, listened to you in the middle of the night—they will probably let you down.

Favors aren't for trading, they wear out, they fade away, they are valued differently by the giver and the receiver.

No, the best favors are worth doing for the doing, not because we'll ever get paid back appropriately.