Central Perk

luni, 25 octombrie 2010

New White Board Video and a New Report on Women and the Economy

Economy and Jobs Agenda
Monday, October 25, 2010

The Week In Economy and Jobs

Last Thursday, President Obama travelled to Seattle, Washington and held a backyard conversation with women about their economic challenges and concerns. Earlier in the day the National Economic Council released a report that outlined the economic landscape for women and details many of the ways the Obama Administration is committed to strengthening America’s economy and providing opportunities for women across the country.

Earlier in the week, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, Austan Gooslbee, released the second White House White Board video – this time taking a look back at the President’s record on the economy through the perspective of the last three years of private sector employment.

Highlights

Weekly Address: Letting Wall Street Run Wild Again
October 23, 2010
Pointing to the foreclosure crisis and the economy, the President cites passage of Wall Street Reform over the ferocious lobbying of Wall Street banks as a pivotal achievement -- and condemns Republicans in Congress for vowing to repeal it.

What Do They Expect in Return?
October 22, 2010
Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer zeroes in on the real significance of the flood of secret corporate money into our elections and the opposition of Republicans in Congress to the DISCLOSE Act.

President Obama Talks to American Women on the Economy: The People Behind the Report
October 21, 2010
The President takes some time in a backyard in Seattle, Washington to talk with women who are moving forward in every sector of our economy.

Tax Cut Facts: How Obama’s Tax Cuts Are Helping American Families
October 21, 2010
Jared Bernstein, Chief Economic Advisor to the Vice President, discusses widely underestimated benefits of President Obama's tax cuts.

TIGER II Grants to 75 Innovative Projects Will Change the Transportation Landscape, Create Jobs in 40 States
October 21, 2010
Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood writes about the funding of 75 innovative new projects that will put people to work today building a 21st century foundation for tomorrow's economic growth.

Providing Jobs and Economic Security for America's Women
October 21, 2010
Valerie Jarrett discusses a new report that outlines the economic landscape for women today and details many of the ways the Obama Administration is committed to strengthening America’s economy and providing opportunities for women across the country.

Report Shows The Recovery Act Creates Jobs and Changes Lives for the Better
October 20, 2010
Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack releases a report outlining how Recovery Act funds allocated to seven programs administered by USDA Rural Development have sparked economic growth, created or saved over 300,000 jobs, and funded projects in almost 3,000 counties.

A Path Forward for Communities Affected by the GM Bankruptcy
October 20, 2010
Jared Bernstein with the Middle Class Task Force explains why the agreement between the Old General Motors and federal and state governments to establish a trust to clean up and repurpose 89 properties left behind in the GM bankruptcy is so significant.

Cutting Through the Rhetoric on Spending
October 20, 2010
The New York Times calls Congressional Republicans' bluff on their empty fiscal responsibility rhetoric.

What You Missed: Tuesday Talk with Austan Goolsbee
October 20, 2010
Watch the full video of our Tuesday Talk with CEA Chairman Austan Goolsbee, complete with links to jump to each question.

White House White Board: CEA Chair Austan Goolsbee Explains the Jobs Trends
October 19, 2010
In the second edition of White House White Board, Austan Goolsbee, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, looks back at the President’s record on the economy through the perspective of the last three years in private sector employment.

A Task Force on Veteran Small Business Development
October 18, 2010
Marie Johns, Deputy Administrator of the U.S. Small Business Administration, discusses the first public meeting of the President’s Interagency Task Force on Veteran Small Business Development.

Taking On Black Lung
October 18, 2010
In the wake of the historic rescue of miners in Chile, Maureen Tracey-Mooney with the Office of the Vice President, discusses efforts to tackle an even more widespread danger to miners.

Weekly Address: GOP Rewarding Corporations that Create Jobs Overseas
October 16, 2010
The President lays out his agenda to foster investment here at home. He vows to close the tax loopholes for sending jobs and profits overseas that Congressional Republicans have tried to protect.

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Seth's Blog : Last call for the Los Angeles road trip event

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Last call for the Los Angeles road trip event

This is my only public west coast gig this year... I hope you can make it. November 9th at the fabulous Zipper Hall. Full day tickets are here. Use discount code sethsblog. It seems there are only twenty tickets left.

Inexpensive breakfast plus one-hour interview tickets are here.

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My Turn to Answer Your Questions

Good afternoon,

As a Senior Advisor to the President, I spend a lot of time talking to President Obama about the issues that affect all Americans.

But tomorrow I want to try something a little different. I’m hosting a live chat with Americans from around the country to answer questions about the economy, health care, energy, education or really whatever is on your mind.

Can you join me at 1 p.m. EDT?

I’ve been in the White House with President Obama from Day One, and I know how important it is to the President to understand the concerns of the American people. That’s why he travels around the country meeting with families and small businesses and reads ten of your letters every day. And it’s why we do regular online discussions like Tuesday Talks and Open for Questions.

Over the past few weeks, Austan Goolsbee, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, and Elizabeth Warren, who is leading the effort to get the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau off the ground, have taken some time to answer your questions. Now it’s my turn.

So, I hope you’ll join me tomorrow, and I’ll do my best to answer as many of your questions as I can.

I’m looking forward to talking to you.

Sincerely,

David Axelrod
Senior Advisor to the President

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Daily Snapshot: Helping Small Businesses Get Back on Their Feet

Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, October 25, 2010

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama greets Mieraye Redmond, 7, on the sidewalk next door to the home where he met with area families in Seattle, Wash., Oct. 21, 2010. Mieraye gave the President a letter she had written to him at school and attached it to a paper bouquet of flowers that she also made and colored. Sen. Patty Murray is at right. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

Today's Schedule

Today, the President will travel to Rhode Island to tour the facilities of American Cord & Webbing in Woonsocket, Rhode Island, and deliver remarks to workers. Though American Cord & Webbing was hit by the economic downturn and forced to lay off some workers in 2009, they invested in new product development to pursue new customers and over the course of the past year they have brought all of their former laid-off employees back. American Cord and Webbing currently has 47 employees and plans on hiring more. And last month, the company was approved for an SBA loan that will help the company expand its Woonsocket facility, going from 30,000 sq. ft. to 43,000 sq. ft. by next spring.

All times are Eastern Daylight Time

10:10 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

10:40 AM: The President meets with senior advisors

11:00 AM: The President meets with Secretary of State Clinton

11:00 AM: The Vice President delivers remarks at the International Association of Chiefs of Police First General Assembly

2:30 PM: The President departs the White House en route Andrews Air Force Base

2:45 PM: The President departs Andrews Air Force Base en route Warwick, Rhode Island

3:55 PM: The President arrives in Warwick, Rhode Island

4:15 PM: The Vice President attends an event for Congressional candidate Ann McLane Kuster

4:40 PM: The President tours American Cord & Webbing Co. Inc

4:55 PM: The President delivers remarks to workers (audio only)

6:30 PM: The President delivers remarks at a DCCC reception

7:30 PM: The President delivers remarks at a DCCC dinner

8:15 PM: The President departs Warwick, Rhode Island en route Andrews Air Force Base

9:25 PM: The President arrives at Andrews Air Force Base

9:40 PM: The President arrives at the White House

Indicates Events that will be livestreamed on WhiteHouse.gov/live.

Seth's Blog : Organizing for joy

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Organizing for joy

Traditional corporations, particularly large-scale service and manufacturing businesses, are organized for efficiency. Or consistency. But not joy.

McDonalds, Hertz, Dell and others crank it out. They show up. They lower costs. They use a stopwatch to measure output.

The problem with this mindset is that as you approach the asymptote of maximum efficiency, there's not a lot of room left for improvement. Making a Chicken McNugget for .00001 cents less isn't going to boost your profit a whole lot.

Worse, the nature of the work is inherently un-remarkable. If you fear special requests, if you staff with cogs, if you have to put it all in a manual, then the chances of amazing someone are really quite low.

These organizations have people who will try to patch problems over after the fact, instead of motivated people eager to delight on the spot.

The alternative, it seems, is to organize for joy. These are the companies that give their people the freedom (and yes, the expectation) that they will create, connect and surprise. These are the organizations that embrace someone who makes a difference, as opposed to searching for a clause in the employee handbook that was violated.

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duminică, 24 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Massive Inflation in China, US Inflation Nonexistent
California Cut 37,000 Government Jobs in September; Much More to Come
German Economy Minister Accuses US of Currency Manipulation

Massive Inflation in China, US Inflation Nonexistent

Posted: 24 Oct 2010 06:51 PM PDT

Those looking for massive inflation cannot find it in the US where credit contraction is still underway. However, one can find massive inflation in China, where increases in money supply and credit run rampant, and property and food prices soar.

Please consider China Hides Rampant Inflation in Money Binge: Patrick Chovanec

High-end property prices in dozens of Chinese cities have doubled during the global financial crisis. Sales of gold bars have done the same this year. Fine pieces of jade are selling at $3,000 an ounce, up 50 percent in the past couple of months, while packets of certain types of dahongpao tea are going for $30,000 a kilogram. Art and wine auctions in China are pulling in record prices, while the Shanghai stock market surged 8.5 percent last week to the highest level in almost six months.

If it seems like there's a lot of money sloshing around the Chinese economy, that's because there is. Over the past two years, M1 expanded by 56 percent, M2 by 53 percent. Currently, even with much-touted "cooling measures," both are still growing at an annual rate of about 20 percent.

...most people in China seem content to believe their country has found a fantastic new formula for prosperity.

In reality, there is rampant inflation in China. It's just showing up in asset prices. The new money that was created entered the economy as loans, mainly to fund investment in fixed assets. When it finally reached consumers, they bought tangibles, like property, instead of spending on consumer goods.

Chinese Inflation Shows Up in Food and Property Prices

The New York Times reports Food and Property Prices Drive China's Concern Over Inflation

China's roaring economy slowed in the third quarter, rising at an annual rate of 9.6 percent after the government took steps to prevent overheating, according to data released Thursday. But inflation last month hit its highest rate in nearly two years.

The government said the consumer price index, the broadest measure of inflation, rose 3.6 percent from the previous September. It was the highest rate in China since 2008, largely because of food prices, which rose 8 percent last month.

Interest rates on savings deposits in China had recently fallen to about 2.25 percent a year before the decision Tuesday. (The government-mandated rate is now 2.5 percent.) But inflation has risen steadily this year, which means bank depositors are essentially facing a negative interest rate return.

And yet, things may be even worse than the consumer price index suggests. A growing number of analysts say inflationary pressure is stronger than the price index indicates, because it is heavily weighted toward food — particularly pork prices. Rising energy, property and transportation costs are not as significant a factor in the index. And even the price increases of many food items — aside from pork — are also not adequately weighed or calculated, analysts say.

Basket of Nonsense

These stories highlight the problems of measuring "inflation" with a basket of consumer prices. The Greenspan and Bernanke Feds both made huge mistakes by ignoring property prices.

It is actually impossible to pick a representative basket of goods and services. Moreover, and more importantly, even if one could pick such a basket, bubbles caused by inflation can form in equities, commodities, land prices, housing, or other assets.

Please remember this is a global economy. Prices, especially commodity prices, are set at the margin, and based on global demands, not just on demands in the US.

Many have misguidedly pointed to rising commodity prices as proof of inflation. All things considered, that "proof" pertains not to the US, but rather to China where credit, monetary, and price inflation are all clearly running rampant.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

California Cut 37,000 Government Jobs in September; Much More to Come

Posted: 24 Oct 2010 11:25 AM PDT

The LA Times reports Government job cuts ravage California

Weighed down by a struggling economy, government agencies in California shed 37,300 workers last month — more jobs than were lost in the private sector — as cities and counties made their biggest payroll cutbacks since at least 1990.

What's more, analysts see more job cuts ahead as California faces an estimated $10-billion shortfall in the state budget that the next governor must address. Cities and counties, meanwhile, are still struggling with tepid sales and property tax revenue.

Cities across the state have taken stringent measures to balance their budgets, said Eva Spiegel, a spokeswoman with the League of California Cities.

Oakland laid off 80 police officers and delayed pothole repairs. Fullerton laid off 14 police officers and three firefighters, cut library hours and closed restrooms at several parks. Oceanside laid off 28 police officers and three firefighters, closed a swimming pool and a recreation center and eliminated the city Bookmobile.

Overall, the state's unemployment rate remained stuck at 12.4%, one of the highest in the nation. The state lost a net 63,600 jobs in September. Local governments shed 32,400 jobs, according to the monthly report from the state Employment Development Department released Friday.

Taxable sales plummeted 18.5% in California from 2006 to 2009 and are expected to remain relatively flat this year, according to the National University System Institute for Policy Research in La Jolla.

The National League of Cities reported this month that cities across the country were making their sharpest cuts in at least a quarter of a century. Nearly 80% of city finance officers in a survey reported laying off staff, and 87% said their cities were worse off financially this year than last year.

Taxable Sales Down 18%

Those last two paragraphs are the key to understanding one of the things I have been saying, that there is no recovery in sales.

Every month, when retail sales numbers come out, I question them. Here is my article from October 15: Retail Sales Rise More Than Forecast; Once Again I Ask "Really?"

Retail sales may be at their best point in the year, but sales are certainly not within 3% of the all time high [as government data shows]. If they were, tax revenue collection would be exceeding all time highs given increases in sales taxes.

Sales Tax Collections Down 5.9% June 2010 vs. June 2008

In spite of numerous sales tax hikes, tax collections are still 5.9% lower than two years ago. Moreover, June of 2008 was not the pre-recession peak. November of 2007 was the pre-recession peak.

Bear in mind those statistics are as reported in Retail Sales Rise .4% from July - How Far to Pre-recession Levels? Where to from Here? reflective of the second quarter.

See link for several charts.

Unless consumers have gone on a tear in the third quarter (highly unlikely with renewed slowdown in housing as well as the recent Gallup survey above), these retail sales reports are simply not believable.

What's clear is the methodology is flawed. By how much is the question. The way to figure out how much is to factor in all sales tax hikes and compare state sales tax collections. I will take another look at that as time permits.

Expect More Cutbacks, Lots More

Just a few days ago I penned, Severe, Life-changing, and Consciousness-Altering State Budget Cuts Coming.

The LA Times article is but a start for what I envision. Moreover, it does not even begin to address the fact that California Pension Promises Exceed 550% of State Tax Revenue by 2012; A Look at Solutions.

Finally, it should be crystal clear that Los Angeles, Oakland, San Diego, and numerous other cities in California and nationwide are bankrupt, mostly over public union pension promises that cannot be met.

Here are a few posts:

The most galling thing in all of this is public unions across the country are demanding more tax hikes so they can receive benefits those in the private sector can only dream about.

Indeed, most of the police, fire, and teacher layoffs underway would not have to happen, if only the unions would accept cutbacks in pay and benefits. Instead, senior union members always vote to toss the junior members to the dogs, then have the gall to blame voters for not hiking taxes.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

German Economy Minister Accuses US of Currency Manipulation

Posted: 24 Oct 2010 01:19 AM PDT

At long last a major player is finally pointing a the currency manipulation finger where it needs to be placed, the US.

Please consider Germany Says Fed Is Headed 'Wrong Way' With Monetary Easing

The Federal Reserve's push toward easier monetary policy is the "wrong way" to stimulate growth and may amount to a manipulation of the dollar, German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said.

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday gave Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea an overview of the U.S. central bank's efforts to jumpstart the world's largest economy. His strategy, which investors expect will soon include greater asset purchases, drew criticism at the talks, said Bruederle.

"It's the wrong way to try to prevent or solve problems by adding more liquidity," Bruederle told reporters yesterday, saying that emerging-market officials were among the critics. Bruederle, a member of the Free Democratic Party, the junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel's government, stepped in for hospitalized Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble at the meeting.

"Excessive, permanent money creation in my opinion is an indirect manipulation of an exchange rate," Bruederle said. The minister has taken a pro-market stance in his first year in office, criticizing state intervention in cases such as providing aid for General Motors Co.'s German Opel unit.

The Big Point

I have been saying for years that the US was every bit the currency manipulator we accuse China of being. My stance is that interest rate policy decisions in and of themselves are manipulative.

Moreover, we have since gone one step further with futile unwarranted rounds of quantitative easing baked into the cake.

Thankfully, the German economic minister is willing to say what anyone with an ounce of common sense has known for a long time: "Excessive, permanent money creation in my opinion is an indirect manipulation of an exchange rate."

Correction:
Rainer Bruederle is "Bundesminister für Wirtschaft und Technologie", "Federal Minister for Economy and Technology", not Finance Minister. He was filling in for hospitalized Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble at the meeting.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Seth's Blog : Change and its constituents (there are two, and both are a problem)

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Change and its constituents (there are two, and both are a problem)

People who fear they will be hurt by a change speak up immediately, loudly and without regard for the odds or reality.

People who will benefit from a change don't believe it (until it happens), so they sit quietly.

And that's why change in an organization is difficult.

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luni, 25 octombrie 2010

New White Board Video and a New Report on Women and the Economy

Seth's Blog : Last call for the Los Angeles road trip event

Last call for the Los Angeles road trip event

More Recent Articles

My Turn to Answer Your Questions

Daily Snapshot: Helping Small Businesses Get Back on Their Feet

Seth's Blog : Organizing for joy

Organizing for joy

More Recent Articles

duminică, 24 octombrie 2010

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Change and its constituents (there are two, and both are a problem)

Change and its constituents (there are two, and both are a problem)

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luni, 25 octombrie 2010

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duminică, 24 octombrie 2010

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