miercuri, 6 aprilie 2011

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog

SEOmoz Daily SEO Blog


Without CRO & On-Site Optimization, It's Tempting to Abandon SEO

Posted: 06 Apr 2011 04:20 AM PDT

Posted by Bill4Time

Quick Synopsis

To make the most out of your SEO, use Conversion Rate Optimization and On-Site Optimization. If you only do SEO, you could find yourself falling short of the bottom line. Skip to the bottom to find some charts to help. To hear how I figured this out the hard way (!), please read on. Maybe the story sounds familiar.

Using SEO TacticsExcerpt: Our sales have been going down for a few months

Does SEO help in sales? Traffic to your site means more customers, and more traffic means more sales, right? But what happens when you did everything right in SEO and you didn't get the sales? It's tempting to adopt a misconception of SEO, and abandon SEO all together.

And that's what almost happened to me.

Being new to SEO at the time, I was an avid student. I'd read any article I could get my hands on. I'd attend any webinar possible. I'd follow the instructions to add more content to my site. I'd streamline my targeted keywords, slim my PPC campaigns, and be active with social media. Traffic was going up and we were moving up in the SERPs. Looks good, right?

After SEO Tactics

For my 6 month-evaluation, I was ready with shining colors. But the owners of the business had other concerns: our sales have been going down for the past few months. I thought to myself, "No, how can this be? I brought in more traffic to our site. Doesn't that mean more sales?"

After taking a deeper look into Google analytics (with even Dr. Pete helping me), we came to a startling conclusion: my company didn't do anything SEO that triggered the downward sales. SEO-wise, we did everything right.

Not Using SEO Tactics

Excerpt: I threw SEO out the window

That's when I threw SEO out the window for a few months. I resorted to good 'ol fashioned marketing. My company is a web-based time and billing software. So being online, we encourage shoppers to sign up for a free trial of the software. But even though we increased traffic, we weren't getting enough trial users and actual buyers. I needed to bridge the gap, so my team and I did the following:

  • Beefed up the KnowledgeBase and updated it on a regular basis based on the questions recorded in the Tech Support department.
  • Introduced weekly webinars that demonstrated specific aspects of the software.
  • Promoted the KnowledgeBase and webinars by our site, emails, and sales and tech support departments.
  • Called back people who called but didn't leave a message.
  • Reduced the automatic emails. Made the remaining emails more up to-date, concise, and easier on the eye.

I figured only “educated buyers” make purchases. If they know what they're buying, they'll buy it. Once they become trial users, they want to know how easy it is for them to use the software. And that's where we were falling short. We needed to educate them on how to use the software.

Within months of just good ‘ol fashioned marketing, our sales grew! The rate was so rapid, we now need to grow our tech support staff!
Sales Stats after CRO and On-Site Optimization
Questioning SEO Tactics

So what does this all mean? Is SEO useless when it comes to the bottom line? Does it increase sales? Should businesses ignore it all together?SEOMoz quote

I was seriously asking myself these questions. I finally gathered enough courage to ask SEOMoz and it wasn't what I was expecting. Jamie writes:

"Well, SEO and other online marketing initiatives are certainly complementary. But I'll be honest with you: you will see more sales from focusing on conversion rate optimization and site optimization alone than from SEO alone. That said, I'd never recommend you do only one...

...So if your resources are constrained, and you can only focus well on one thing, you would be smart to continue focusing on conversion optimization until you feel like you're hitting diminishing returns with on-site optimization, then it's time to start focusing much more on getting more people to your well-optimized site. Also, it's possible to be doing things that help your SEO while also focusing primarily on conversion optimization.

So CRO and SEO really do need to be related, but like I said, if you can truly only do one thing, start with optimizing your site first. Just make sure the optimization is for both humans (who you want to buy your wares) and the search engines that will be crawling and indexing your pages for search queries.”

Hello CRO & On-Site Optimization

So Conversion Rate Optimization (CRO) and On-Site Optimization is really good 'ol fashioned marketing! Jamie helped me put things into perspective. It makes sense. SEO is part of the puzzle.

But here's the thing. These aren't necessarily different things you do in a sequential way. It should all be integrated in each other. I would keep CRO & On-Site Optimization in mind during the entire time you're doing SEO. There are many ways of approaching this. Below is a suggested approach:

Chart incorporating CRO with SEO

Click on this chart to get a larger view. It's a general idea of applying On-Site Optimization and SEO to the various areas of the Conversion Funnel.

So yes, SEO does indeed affect your bottom line. It may not directly affect your bottom line as CRO & On-Site Optimization, but it would be double the work if you had to redo your CRO & On-Site Optimization efforts because Google didn't see your website clearly.

Using a CRO Mindset with SEO

Going in the other direction, if you are looking at a site from an SEO perspective, it's essential that you don't loose sight of the CRO. Don't get lost in all the numbers. Make sure that it ties back to the bottom line.To give yourself a good idea where it falls in your priorities, this flowchart should help:

Flowchart to think CRO when doing SEO

These two charts aren't all-encompassing. There's so much more (Check out a recent YOUmoz post about it - it got bumped up to the main blog!). But if you maintain the right approach to SEO, you're on the right track. Feel free to add other suggestions in applying this concept.


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Retargeting: What It Is & How to Use It

Posted: 05 Apr 2011 01:18 PM PDT

Posted by JoannaLord

I've wanted to write this post for a couple weeks now, knowing that the topic of retargeting is hot, hot, hot. I noticed that as more marketers hear of retargeting there still seems to be quite a bit of confusion around what it actually is, and how it is different from regular display media buys. This post is meant to help with that confusion and hopefully leave everyone with a solid understanding of retargeting basics as well as some actionable ways you can utilize it. Let's start with some common questions...

So what is retargeting?


How is this different than regular display ad buys?
With retargeting you only target users that have visited your site and already had an experience with your brand. You can choose to target users that went to a specific part of your site, or open it up to your whole site, but either way you are guaranteeing that you only spend ad dollars on people who have previously visited your site. Normal display media buys tend to target users in the first stages of the buying funnel. With those ad buys you are tasked with introducing yourself, establishing trust, branding effectively, etc. all while going after an action.

How is it tracked?
You place a retargeting pixel on either (a) certain sections of your site or (b) across your entire site. As visitors visit the pages you have the pixel on they are added to what is called an "audience." This audience is cookied and as they visit other sites in the display networks you are running retargeting ads on, they are shown your ads. The size of your audience greatly affects the success of your retargeting campaigns. Even if you aren't ready to start testing retargeting, I highly suggest you start building your audience. The larger this qualified group of past visitors, the better!

If a person in your audience converts then a "burn pixel" will fire, which takes them out of the audience. You can also choose to add different pixels if you wish to show converting visitors different ads. You can get quite complex regarding the sequence of pixels you cookie these users with.

You can also control the sites that show your ads, just like on typical display network buys. You can decide that a site isn't cutting it, and cut them from the list. You have quite a bit of control around who sees your ad and who doesn't.

Whether you decide to start out with a smaller audience (maybe you decide to JUST cookie those users that made it a cart page but didn't complete a purchase) or whether you decide to put every possible visitor to your site into the audience, this tracking method is incredibly effective. At SEOmoz we have started passing back a unique conversion ID on our end, as to double and triple check conversions with the agency we are running our retargeting efforts through. This sort of granular tracking can be very powerful, and very robust, as we will explore in greater detail in a bit. Below is an image of the general process:



                                       * Please note you don't have to be named Casey for retargeting to be effective
 


How is it measured?

Unlike typical display advertising measurement, retargeting actually gives credit to both click-though, and view-through conversions. Often times if you work with an agency they will report both to you, as well as a total, and you will have to decide how you want to navigate the performance formula.

Click-through conversions are any conversions that happen as a direct result of someone clicking a retargeting ad they were served.

View-through conversions
 would be like assists. They are conversions that are attributed to another channel (on last click attribution tracking) but these conversions were at one point served a retargeting ad.

As you can imagine there is a lot to be learned about your ads and landing pages as these numbers change in ratio throughout your testing. We were very interested to find that our purely branded ads (just Roger and our logo) were incredibly effective for both buckets. This has helped us optimize our display strategy across the board.

Wait, so what is remarketing?
Google Adwords launched a form of retargeting in their display network about a year ago, and they call it "remarketing," which has caused nothing but confusion for most marketers. So Remarketing is specific to the Google Adwords display network, and Retargeting is the marketing approach behind Remarketing.

** Since Remarketing really is a beast all it's own, I have decided to focus this post on just retargeting. If you want me to write a post on how to set up Remarketing, and how to use it effectively, let me know in the comments below and I'll get on it!

So how can you use retargeting?
Now that you have the gist of how it works, let's talk about practical applications for this marketing channel. The simplest answer to this would be to say that remarketing gets previous visits back to your site. We all know there are lots of conversions that can happen when you get a previous visit to return. Remarketing can be effective at every step of the funnel. You know what? I hate that we always call it a funnel. So today I'm calling it the buying ice cream cone. Retargeting banners can be effective at each step of the buying ice cream cone (see below).


This is just a taste, the ideas are literally limitless. The truth is retargeting is one of the most effective ways to target a user at a given time with a given message. You know how as a marketer we are always trying to gauge where a user is in the buying funnel so we can better understand if our buys are failing, or if our messages are? Well retargeting takes a lot of the guesswork and replaces it with data and quite a bit of control, its a win-win.

Is this all too good to be true?
Well the short answer is yes. There are quite a few things to keep in mind when testing out retargeting as part of your digital marketing strategy. Here are just a few bigger challenges to keep in mind:

#1 Retargeting is a channel all its own
It is tempting to apply past display ad truths to your retargeting efforts, but this isn't your best decision Retargeting demands unique banner ads, custom landing pages, and ongoing optimization. So unless you have the time to truly research, learn, build-out, and measure another channel, you might want to hold off on retargeting. Like every other marketing opportunity out there, you can lose money if you don't put the time in.

#2 Banners can be more creative, less official
Not sure if "official" is the right word, but banner ads that are a bit more out there have huge potential on retargeting. These ads can be more personal, quirky or humorous. They need to catch a person's eye and trigger a memory of their last visit. Logos and brand names are still important, but retargeting ads are an opportunity to push your creative messaging. This is a chance to tell a story to a user that will continue to see you and interact with your site.

#3 Too much retargeting can work against you
Retargeting specialists believe that having a user see 7 to 12 of your ads in the course of a 30-day period is ideal, but seeing the same ad every time, or seeing more than that can have a negative effect. We learned this the hard way at SEOmoz. I was so excited when we first started running tests that I increased my budget to get some serious volume data, and quickly our help team as well as our Twitter stream was bombarded with users complaining that they were being followed by SEOmoz ads. It was clear that many of them wanted to see less of us on their favorite sites. There is a fine balance between targeting users, and bombarding them, so tread lightly. 

#4  Retargeting is a commitment
I already mentioned that it requires a great deal of attention, but retargeting is also most effective after it is up and running for some time. First off, your audience grows larger, which only works to your benefit. Secondly, retargeting specialists agree that three months of seeing about a dozen ad impressions is more effective than just one month. There is a lot of power in staying front of mind. So for those of you all excited about retargeting possibilities, just remember it could take a few months to find your retargeting groove.

Those are the biggest challenges we have faced here at SEOmoz. When we first started testing retargeting we were starry eyed with the initial results, and since then we have continued to be impressed by its performance. However, we have also made a whole lot of mistakes along the way. Our latest mistake was actually firing the conversion pixel on the wrong page (resulting in about 8x more conversions being recorded)-- yeah that really happened. So just keep in mind, this channel isn't a "set it and forget it" answer to your marketing prayers.

Retargeting takeaways
I don't want to scare you off. Retargeting can be incredibly effective for advertisers that put the time in to manage and optimize spend effectively. I should mention that last month alone we saw 4X the number of free trial signups from retargeting than we did from a similar stand-alone site sponsorship. We actually ran identical banner ads for those two buys as well. The differences came in having a prequalified audience, and staying in front of our target audience.

So take it or leave it, but the marketing team over at SEOmoz is definitely excited to play around with retargeting and see how creative we can get with the sequences of our ad buys and landing pages (I hope to get some follow-up posts with case studies for all of you soon enough). The results make it worth the time, and in my opinion, it's like the Wild West in there right now. You don't have to worry about competition like with many other channels, you control every piece of this channel, and you have unlimited options on how to utilize it.

I would love to hear if any of you have been using it, and if so, what are you seeing?

As an added bonus, I thought I'd share my PubCon South Presentation on Retargeting & Remarketing. Here you go friends!


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President Obama Speaks on Budget Negotiations

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
 

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden meet with Office of Management and Budget Director Jack Lew and Rob Nabors, Director of Legislative Affairs, in the Oval Office, April 5, 2011. The President and Vice President later met with House Republican and Senate Democratic leaders to discuss ongoing budget negotiations. (Office White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

President Obama on Budget Negotiations: "We Have Now Matched the Number the Speaker Originally Sought"
Speaking in the White House Briefing Room after a meeting with Congressional Leaders of both parties, the President laid out his guiding principles for the negotiations and gave a run-down of the current state of affairs.

Not Your Average Facebook Invite: Join President Obama's Town Hall @ Facebook HQ
On April 20th, President Obama heads to California to hold a very special facebook town hall about the economy. Learn more and RSVP at facebook.com/WhiteHouse.

Open for Questions: Celebrating the One Year Anniversary of West Wing Week
White House Videographer and West Wing Week creator Arun Chaudhary and Deputy Press Secretary Josh Earnest, the voice of West Wing Week, will host a live chat on Thursday, April 7th, to celebrate West Wing Week's birthday.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

11:00 AM: The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing

12:15 PM: The President departs the White House en route to Andrews Air Force Base

12:30 PM: The President departs Andrews Air Force Base en route to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

1:15 PM: The President arrives in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

2:10 PM: The President holds a town hall discussion with Gamesa workers WhiteHouse.gov/live

4:20 PM: The President departs Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

5:00 PM: The President arrives in New York, New York

5:00 PM: Open for Questions: Energy Security with Secretary Salazar WhiteHouse.gov/live

6:05 PM: The President delivers remarks at National Action Networks Annual Gala WhiteHouse.gov/live

7:40 PM: The President departs New York, New York

8:35 PM: The President arrives at Andrews Air Force Base

8:50 PM: The President arrives at the White House

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates events that will be live streamed on White House.com/Live.

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Watch Live: President Obama's Town Hall on Energy Security

The White House Wednesday, April 6,  2011
 

 

Today, President Obama will discuss his long-term plan to protect consumers against rising oil prices and decrease oil imports as well as key components of his broader energy plan at a town hall event at Gamesa Technology Corporation near Philadelphia. Gamesa’s wind-energy turbine manufacturing facility employs approximately 300 workers and was built at a former U.S. Steel industrial site.

You can watch the town hall live at WhiteHouse.gov/live starting at 2:10 p.m. EDT.

And this evening, be sure to tune in for a special Open for Questions on Energy Security with Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar. Secretary Salazar will be answering your questions about President Obama’s Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future. Watch live at WhiteHouse.gov/live and submit your questions on Facebook.

Highlights

President Obama’s Remarks by the President on the Clean Fleet Partnership
April 1, 2011
The President visits a UPS customer center to speak about public and private Green Fleets as one small piece of his Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future, gas prices, and the latest jobs numbers.

Going Green and Saving Green
April 1, 2011
The White House Council on Environmental Quality answers a question from Twitter on how the U.S. is going green without raising the deficit.

West Wing Week: “Under the Big Blue Whale”
April 1, 2011
This week the President spoke to the American people about the situation in Libya and concluded Education month with visits to a multicultural high school and a New York City science fair.

President Obama’s Green Fleet Initiative A Bold Step Forward in US Energy Use
April 1, 2011
Secretary Ray LaHood highlights President Obama’s new green fleet initiative which focuses on reducing our dependency on foreign oil by purchasing electric, hybrid or alternatively fueled vehicles.

Helping American Families Make Good Choices and Cut Energy Bills
April 1, 2011
Director Melody Barnes discusses the ways in which American families can find relief from high energy bills by making their homes and more energy efficient and by putting a million electric vehicles on the road by 2015.

The Obama Administration’s Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future
March 30, 2011
President Obama speaks to students at Georgetown University about reducing our dependence on oil while moving toward a clean energy economy and announces the release of the Administration’s Blueprint for a Secure Energy Future.

Strengthening Our Understanding of a Changing Planet
March 29, 2011
Associate Director Shere Abbott explores the ways that the new plan and leadership for the U.S. Global Change Research Program will reorganize and realign the program to better serve its stakeholders and enrich our understanding of climate change.

The Results Are In: Drilling Down on Unused Leases
March 29, 2011
Deputy Assistant Heather Zichal discusses the Department of Interior’s report, released on Tuesday, that shows not only has the government made land available for resource development, but also tens of millions of acres currently leased remain undeveloped.

The Facts on Domestic Oil and Gas Production
March 27, 2011
Deputy Assistant Heather Zichal emphasizes the importance of supporting responsible domestic energy production while expanding our energy portfolio to include clean energy sources.

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Seth's Blog : Who's responsible for service design?

Who's responsible for service design?

How many people should be answering the phone at Zappos on a Saturday? What's Southwest Airlines policy regarding hotel stays and cancelled flights? Should the knobs on the shower at the hotel go side by side or one above the other? Can I turn it on without getting sprayed with cold water? How many steps from the front of the hotel to the registration desk?

Too often, we blame bad service on the people who actually deliver the service. Sometimes (often) it's not their fault. Sadly, the complaints rarely make it as far as the overpaid (or possibly overworked) executive who made the bad design decision in the first place. It's the architecture of service that makes the phone ring and that makes customers leave.

Three quick tips for anyone who cares about this:
1. Require service designers to sign their work. Who decided to make it the way it is?
2. Run a customer service audit. Walk through the building or the software or the phone tree with all the designers in the room and call out what's not right.
3. Make it easy for complaints (and compliments) about each decision to reach the designer (and her boss).

In my experience, most of the problems are caused by ignorance and isolation, not incompetence or a lack of concern.

 
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marți, 5 aprilie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Roubini on China’s Unsustainable, Unbalanced Growth Model; China Unexpectedly Hikes Interest Rates to Counter Inflation, Exorbitant Home Prices

Posted: 05 Apr 2011 11:15 AM PDT

In an unexpected move to curb soaring inflation China hiked interest rates for the 4th time since October. Premier Wen noted a threat to social stability and stated "Exorbitant" house price increases in some cities are a top public concern.

Please consider China Raises Interest Rates to Counter Inflation Pressure
China raised interest rates for the fourth time since the end of the global financial crisis to restrain inflation and limit the risk of asset bubbles in the fastest-growing major economy.

The benchmark one-year lending rate will increase to 6.31 percent from 6.06 percent, effective tomorrow, the People's Bank of China said on its website at the end of a national holiday. The one-year deposit rate rises to 3.25 percent from 3 percent.

The move comes as a surprise to some, after Credit Suisse Group AG, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America-Merrill Lynch said officials may pause in tightening. While Japan's disaster and Europe's debt woes are clouding the global outlook, Premier Wen Jiabao's government is more focused on the estimated 5 percent jump in consumer prices last month, said analyst Shen Jianguang.

It's "very significant" that China raised rates before the March inflation data has even been announced, said Shen, a Hong Kong-based economist at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd. who formerly worked for the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. "This is a good preemptive move."

Premier Wen last month described inflation as "a tiger" that once set free will be difficult to cage, and also as a potential threat to social stability. "Exorbitant" house price increases in some cities are a top public concern, he said.

Today's announcement contrasted with central bank Deputy Governor Yi Gang saying March 23 that interest rates were at a "comfortable" level and that he was "not too worried" by inflation because price increases will slow in the second half of the year.
China's Unbalanced, Unsustainable Growth Model

Via Email update, Nouriel Roubini sent out a note regarding China's growth.
I'm writing on the heels of two trips to China during which I met with senior policy makers, bank executives and academics, just as the government launched its 12th Five-Year Plan, intended to rebalance the long-term growth model. My meetings deepened my own impression and RGE's long-standing house view of a potentially destabilizing contradiction between short- and medium-term economic performance: The economy is overheating here and now, but I'm convinced that in the medium term China's overinvestment will prove deflationary both domestically and globally.

Once increasing fixed investment becomes impossible—most likely after 2013—China is poised for a sharp slowdown. Continuing down the investment-led growth path will exacerbate the visible glut of capacity in manufacturing, real estate and infrastructure. I think this dichotomy between the high-growth/inflation pressures of the next couple of years and growth hitting a brick wall in the second half of the quinquennium is far more important than the current focus on a "soft landing" amid double-digit growth. A number of local scholars close to policy circles agree that this is the biggest challenge of the next few years, as we've been saying for months.

  • Despite policy rhetoric about raising the consumption share in GDP, the path of least resistance is the status quo. The details of the new plan reveal continued reliance on investment, including public housing, to support growth, rather than a tax overhaul, substantial fiscal transfers, liberalization of the household registration system or an easing of financial repression.
  • No country can be productive enough to take 50% of GDP and reinvest it into new capital stock without eventually facing massive overcapacity and a staggering nonperforming loan problem. Most likely after 2013, China will suffer a hard landing. China needs to save less, reduce fixed investment, cut net exports as a share of GDP and boost consumption as a share of GDP.
  • China is rife with overinvestment in physical capital, infrastructure and property. To a visitor, this is evident in brand-new empty airports and bullet trains (which will reduce the need for the 45 planned airports), highways to nowhere, massive new government buildings, ghost towns and brand new aluminum smelters kept closed to prevent global prices from plunging.
  • It will take two decades of reforms to change the incentive to overinvest. Traditional explanations of the high savings rate (lack of a social safety net, limited public services, aging of the population, underdevelopment of consumer finance, etc.) are only part of the puzzle—the rest is the household sector's sub-50% share of GDP.
  • Several Chinese policies have led to a massive transfer of income from politically weak households to the politically powerful corporates: a weak currency makes imports expensive, low interest rates on deposits and low lending rates for corporates and developers amount to a tax on savings and labor repression has caused wages to grow much less than productivity.
  • To ease this repression of household income, China would need a more rapid appreciation of the exchange rate, a liberalization of interest rates and a much sharper increase in wage growth. More importantly, China would need to privatize its state-owned enterprises so that their profits become income for households and/or massively tax SOEs' profits and then transfer those fiscal resources to the household sector.

Medium Term Deflationary

Interestingly, Roubini concludes "China's overinvestment will prove deflationary both domestically and globally."

When viewed from the point of destruction of credit and the wiping out of malinvestments especially in the property sector, I would agree.

The question is how Chinese officials respond and to what degree.

China May Be Slowing More Than You Think

In many respects, Roubini echos the beliefs of Michael Pettis.

As noted in Hidden Losses and Little Reform; China May Be Slowing More Than You Think, Pettis thinks a slowdown in China may have already started.

One difference is that Pettis is not convinced of a "hard landing".

On this score, I side and have sided with Roubini. The case for a "hard landing" is sound. Can anyone cite any instances when there has been this much malinvestment where there has not been a hard landing?

How Will Rate Hikes Affect China's Property Bubble?


In early February I was wondering How will Rate Hikes Affect China's Stock Market and Property Bubbles?
Currently it is taking credit growth 3-4 times GDP growth to achieve China's growth target.

Something has to give. Can China grow 10% without huge investment-driven growth, without rampant credit expansion? What about speculation in the stock market?

Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets expects the Chinese stock market to be firm until President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao retire next year.

I am not so sure. It is quite possible a series of hikes weighs on the market. Besides, stock market rallies per se will not help China achieve its GDP targets.

When Do Imbalances Matter?

At some point, China will be forced to address massive imbalances in its investment-driven growth model, make numerous market-driven changes in its banking system, and address the untenable nature of its growth targets in general.

Will the stock market and China's economy wait for a leadership change or will the market force some changes via CPI spikes before then?

I suspect the latter. Moreover, it's entirely possible the series of quarter point baby steps hikes weighs on the equity markets sooner than expected, especially if the frequency of those hikes increases faster than expected, even if credit growth continues unabated.
Implications of the Hard Landing

I spoke about a Chinese hard landing in February in Speculation, Investment Scandals, Fraud, and China's Hard Landing; Miracle of Chinese High-Speed Rail will be Reduced to Dust; Peak Oil Doomsday Clock. Inquiring minds will want to take a look.

In case you missed it, also consider World's Biggest Property Bubble: China's Ghost Cities Revisited; 64 Million Vacant Properties.

The video in the link immediately above is a "must see".

Those who believe or hope China's growth will continue unabated will at some point see those beliefs crash on the hard rocks of reality.

Roubini, Pettis, and I are all guessing as to when these imbalances matter, to what degree, and how hard the landing, but I will leave you with a couple of questions, one I asked earlier: Can anyone cite any instances when there has been this much malinvestment where there has not been a hard landing?

While pondering that question, also ponder the implications for commodities as discussed in Anatomy of Bubbles; Negative Returns for a Decade Revisited; Is Gold in a Bubble?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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