luni, 29 august 2011

Thanks to This Month’s Sponsors August 2011 Graywolf's SEO Blog

Thanks to This Month’s Sponsors August 2011 Graywolf's SEO Blog


Thanks to This Month’s Sponsors August 2011

Posted: 29 Aug 2011 10:30 AM PDT

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I’d like to say thanks to the people who sponsored the blog this month, without them there wouldn’t be regular posts here.

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Related posts:

  1. Thanks to This Month’s Sponsors July 2011 I’d like to say thanks to the people who sponsored...
  2. Thanks to this Months Sponsors – August 2009 I’d like to say thanks to the people who sponsored...
  3. Thanks to This Month’s Sponsors May 2011 I’d like to say thanks to the people who sponsored...
  4. Thanks to This Month’s Sponsors Feb 2011 I’d like to say thanks to the people who sponsored...
  5. Thanks to This Month’s Sponsors March 2011 I’d like to say thanks to the people who sponsored...

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  3. Ezilon.com Regional Directory - Check to see if your website is listed!
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Thanks to This Month’s Sponsors August 2011

Photo of the Day: Responding to Irene's Impact

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Monday, August 29, 2011
 

Photo of the Day

President Barack Obama visits the National Response Coordination Center at FEMA Headquarters in Washington, D.C., to monitor the latest on Hurricane Irene, Aug. 27, 2011. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog.

Hurricane Irene: President Obama on Response and Recovery Efforts
President Obama assures those who have been impacted by the deadly storm that "America will be with you in your hour of need."

Weekly Address: Coming Together to Remember
President Obama pays tribute to the first responders, those who have served, and those who lost their lives ten years ago in the September 11th attacks. Visit Serve.gov for ways to commemorate this solemn anniversary in your community.

Weekly Wrap-up: Time to Prepare
A quick look at what happened this week on WhiteHouse.gov.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Daylight Time (EDT).

10:15 AM: The President receives the Presidental Daily Briefing

11:00 AM: The President makes a personnel announcement WhiteHouse.gov/live

12:10 PM: The President meets with senior advisors

12:45 PM: The President and the Vice President meet for lunch

2:00 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

WhiteHouse.gov/live  Indicates events that will be live streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

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Seth's Blog : The warning signs of defending the status quo

The warning signs of defending the status quo

When confronted with a new idea, do you:

  • Consider the cost of switching before you consider the benefits?
  • Highlight the pain to a few instead of the benefits for the many?
  • Exaggerate how good things are now in order to reduce your fear of change?
  • Undercut the credibility, authority or experience of people behind the change?
  • Grab onto the rare thing that could go wrong instead of amplifying the likely thing that will go right?
  • Focus on short-term costs instead of long-term benefits, because the short-term is more vivid for you?
  • Fight to retain benefits and status earned only through tenure and longevity?
  • Embrace an instinct to accept consistent ongoing costs instead of swallowing a one-time expense?
  • Slow implementation and decision making down instead of speeding it up?
  • Embrace sunk costs?
  • Imagine that your competition is going to be as afraid of change as you are? Even the competition that hasn't entered the market yet and has nothing to lose...
  • Emphasize emergency preparation and the expense of a chronic and degenerative condition?

Calling it out when you see it might give your team the strength to make a leap.

 

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duminică, 28 august 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


International Monetary Research says "Eurozone Break-Up Certain"; I say Embrace the Fact "Banks Cannot Be Saved"

Posted: 28 Aug 2011 08:57 PM PDT

Echoing what I have been saying for years, Christine Lagarde, the new head of the IMF says "Banks Need Urgent Recapitalisation". Unfortunately, much of the rest of what she says is pure nonsense, including the way she wants to achieve that mission.

Please consider European banks set cash test by IMF chief
Christine Lagarde, the IMF's new chief, set off tremors at the Jackson Hole summit over the weekend with warnings that the global financial system is on very thin ice and vulnerable to the slightest shock.

"We are in a dangerous new phase. The stakes are clear: we risk seeing the fragile recovery derailed, so we must act now," she said.

"Banks need urgent recapitalisation. If it is not addressed we could easily see the further spread of economic weakness to core countries, even a debilitating liquidity crisis. The most efficient solution would be mandatory substantial recapitalisation," she said.

Mrs Lagarde issued a thinly-veiled attack on the ECB's rate rises and Europe's fiscal austerity drive. "Monetary policy should remain highly accommodative, as the risk of recession outweighs the risk of inflation. Fiscal policy must navigate between the twin perils of losing credibility and undercutting recovery," she said.

Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research said it is folly to force Europe's banks to raise money too quickly or crystallize losses abruptly. This will cause a monetary implosion and a repeat of the 2008 disaster.

He said the ECB's restrictive policies over the last 18 months and the lack of EMU fiscal union have doomed the euro to certain break-up.

"It cannot be saved. Banks will suffer large losses," he said.
Embrace the Fact "Banks Cannot Be Saved"

This mess cannot be saved. Tim Condgon bemoans the fact. I say, embrace the fact!

Tim Congdon wants to kick the can down the road. Christine Lagarde is clearly angling for more taxpayer bailouts.

Just what the hell does it take for people to realize that throwing more money down the drain cannot solve a damn thing?

Banks are going to take losses. That means bondholders are going to take losses. It is nonsensical to assume anything but that. It is equally nonsensical to suggest there is a way around it. The sooner we embrace the simple facts of the matter, the better off everyone but the bondholders will be.

Attempts to shove more bailouts on the backs of already over-leveraged taxpayers will stunt the recovery for years more to come.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Intuit: U.S. Small Business Hiring Slows in August, Wages Dip

Posted: 28 Aug 2011 06:50 PM PDT

Intuit says U.S. Small Business Hiring Slows in August, Wages Dip
Hiring by U.S. small businesses slowed in August and employers reduced hours, an independent survey showed on Sunday, suggesting the recent stock market turmoil may have dampened job creation.

Intuit, a payrolls processing company, said small businesses added 35,000 jobs after increasing employment by 40,000 in July.

The survey is based on responses from about 66,000 employers at businesses with fewer than 20 employees that use the Intuit Online Payroll system and covered the period from July 24 to August 23.

"There was plenty of bad news this month and the Intuit small business employment figures show this," said Susan Woodward, the economist who helped to develop the survey. "From this month's numbers, we don't see a new recession, but we don't see a robust recovery either."
Odds are US Already in Recession

I am increasing amused at the number of analysts and forecasters who think the US will avoid a recession. I think it is odds on the US is already in a recession.

Others have "gone out on a limb" forecasting a recession within a year.

Is that going out on a limb? Of course not. Going out on a limb was when Dave Rosenberg forecast a 99% chance of recession several months ago.

I was not that brave. He was and he deserves the credit for it. Most of the recession callers are Johnny-Come-Latelys. What's more amusing are those who see little chance of it at all.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Greece 1-Yr Rate 60%; Finland Retains Collateral Demand; Multiple Veto Points; ECB "Litmus Test" Coming Up; Germany Accuses ECB of Treaty Violations

Posted: 28 Aug 2011 11:40 AM PDT

Once again the bond markets have spoken, and once again the message is the same: default. Greek two-year bonds are near 44%, having touched as high as 46%. The interest rate on 1-year Greek government debt is a stunning 59.8%.

Greek 1-Year Government Bonds



Greek 2-Year Government Bonds



44% a year, for two years or whopping 60% for one year, unless of course there is a default.

Not only does the bond market say Greece will default, but the implied haircuts are huge given those interest rates.

Greece Not Saved

Supposedly "Greece was Saved" on that blue circle when yet another bailout (throwing more good money after bad) was approved.

The deal unraveled for numerous reasons but demands by Finland for collateral are at or near the top of the list. Austria, Slovakia, and the Netherlands now want collateral as well.

Under great pressure from Germany, the EU, and IMF, Finland allegedly dropped those demands. It was a lie. Finland did not drop demands for collateral, and that shows you the effect of multiple veto points where such decisions must be unanimous or they fall apart.

17 Veto Points

Please consider A Small Country — Finland — Casts Doubt on Aid for Greece
Finland is just one of 17 euro zone countries whose parliamentary approval is needed for the expanded bailout fund and whose domestic politics could upset the process. The case of Finland points to a bigger governance problem in Europe, said James Savage, a professor at the University of Virginia who has published a book on European monetary union.

"You have all these multiple veto points, so they can't come to a reasonable conclusion, at least not easily," Mr. Savage said. "You have increasingly less efficient decisions that are being made."

Officials from European Finance Ministries spent much of Friday in long- distance negotiations about the collateral issue but did not reach an agreement. Conflicting reports about the negotiations have fed market confusion. The news media in Germany and other countries reported Friday that Finland had dropped its demands, but the reports were swiftly denied by Finnish officials.

The climate created by the collateral dispute could make it more difficult for the European Central Bank to continue to defend Italy and Spain in bond markets and contain their borrowing costs. This month the E.C.B. has spent €36 billion, or $52 billion, intervening in debt markets in an effort, so far successful, to cap bond yields for the two countries.

The E.C.B.'s task could prove more difficult when trading volume picks up, especially since both Spain and Italy are scheduled to try to sell debt this week. "A litmus test for the effectiveness of the E.C.B.'s bond-buying program is in the cards," Rainer Guntermann, an analyst at Commerzbank, wrote in a note.

"We have to listen to the people of Finland," said a government official, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "Collateral is an absolute condition for Finland to be involved."

The collateral dispute is not the only threat to the bailout package. The plan that leaders worked out in July also calls for banks and other investors to swap some of their existing holdings for new bonds that would be worth less but carry guarantees. The plan is designed to cut Greek debt by €37 billion.

But on Friday, in what was probably a tactical move to put pressure on bond holders to accept the deal, Greece said it would back out of the debt relief plan unless 90 percent of investors agreed, Reuters reported.

"Greece should be allowed to fail," Robert J. Aumann, who has a Nobel in economics, said at a recent conference in Lindau, Germany, according to a text of his remarks. "They should repay the debts they feel able to pay and not pay the others."
Greece Has Failed

Nobel prize winner Aumann says "Greece should be allowed to fail".

Not quite.

Greece failed long ago. It is only stubborn idiots at the ECB, EU, IMF, and leaders of various countries who insist otherwise.

They insist otherwise to protect their banks. Yet, by throwing more money into the pot that will now clearly be defaulted on, they have made matters far worse.

ECB "Litmus Test" Coming Up

Now that Finland wants collateral for Greek loans, it will do the same if Spain or Portugal needs more loans. Moreover, I keep wondering when the citizens of Spain, Portugal, and Ireland have had enough, given the success of Iceland in telling the ECB, EU and IMF to go to hell.

Iceland is recovering. The PIIGS are not.

German President says ECB Bond Purchases "Legally and Politically Questionable"

How much more Italian bonds can the ECB buy before it runs out of cash, willpower, or completely drains the EFSF €440bn pool of money?

While pondering the above question please note that German President, Christian Wulff, leader of the Christian Democratic Union, says that ECB bond purchases are "legally and politically questionable".

The Telegraph reports on the accusation by Wulff in Germany fires cannon shot across Europe's bows
In a cannon shot across Europe's bows, he warned that Germany is reaching bailout exhaustion and cannot allow its own democracy to be undermined by EU mayhem.

"I regard the huge buy-up of bonds of individual states by the ECB as legally and politically questionable. Article 123 of the Treaty on the EU's workings prohibits the ECB from directly purchasing debt instruments, in order to safeguard the central bank's independence," he said.

Mr Wulff said the ECB had gone "way beyond the bounds of their mandate" by purchasing €110bn (£96.6bn) of bonds, echoing widespread concerns in Germany that ECB intervention in the Italian and Spanish bond markets this month mark a dangerous escalation.

The blistering attack follows equally harsh words by the Bundesbank in its monthly report. The bank slammed the ECB's bond purchases and also warned that the EU's broader bail-out machinery violates EU treaties and lacks "democratic legitimacy".

The combined attacks come just two weeks before the German constitutional court rules on the legality of the various bailout policies. The verdict is expected on September 7.

The tone of language from two of Germany's most respected institutions suggests that both markets and Europe's political establishment have been complacent in assuming that the court would rubberstamp the EU summit deals in Brussels.

Nobel laureate Joe Stiglitz told the forum that the euro is likely to fall apart unless Germany accepts some form of fiscal union. "More austerity for Greece and Spain is not the answer. Medieval blood-letting will kill the patient, and democracies won't put up with this kind of medicine."

Mr Wulff rebuked Chancelor Merkel, saying political leaders should not break their holidays every time there is trouble in the markets. "They have to stop reacting frantically to every fall on the stock markets. They mustn't allow themselves to be led around the nose by banks, rating agencies or the erratic media," he said.

"This strikes at the very core of our democracies. Decisions have to be made in parliament in a liberal democracy. That is where legitimacy lies."
Kiss a Larger EFSF Goodbye

  1. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless 17 nations all agree to raise the pool to a collective to the proposed €2.2 trillion from the current €440 billion pool.
  2. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless Greece offers hard collateral
  3. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless German courts rubberstamp the EU summit deals
  4. Kiss a larger EFSF goodbye unless 90 percent of investors agree to the deal

In other words, kiss a larger EFSF goodbye, expect a test of the ECB's Italian, Spanish, and Portuguese bond purchasing power, and expect a German court test that in-and-of-itself would settle this matter once and for all.

Even if the German courts approve the deal, there are still more than 17 points of failure, counting investors.

One way or another Greece will default. The sooner the better, actually.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Seth's Blog : Form design

Form design

The purpose of a form is not to treat the human as a computer, who will dutifully fill in each and every box just the way you want.

No, creating a form is like hosting a party for words.

Those little boxes (one per letter) are on some forms because it communicates to you that you should slow down and write clearly, because a human being is going to have to read what you wrote and type it in for you.

The large lined area on the application implies that you're supposed to write more than one sentence.

Online forms work the same way. When you use big type and big boxes, you're telling the visitor something, talking in a certain tone of voice. The local DMV site feels very different from a web2.0 company that happens to be collecting almost exactly the same data.

We're all looking for clues, clues about what you want, who you are, whether we trust you. Even in a simple form.

 

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sâmbătă, 27 august 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Five Rules to Remember When Dealing with Real Estate Agents; Why are New Home Sales So Low? How Big is the Pool of Eligible Home Buyers?

Posted: 27 Aug 2011 07:35 PM PDT

A reader asked me to comment on historically low mortgage rates and their effect on housing. He asked because Realtors are telling him mortgage rates prove now is a "great time to buy".

That comment prompted me to write Five Rules to Remember When Dealing with Real Estate Agents

Rule Number One

Real estate agents will always say "Now is a Great Time to Buy" no matter what the trend of prices, mortgage rates, or inventory.

Here are some phrases to expect depending on current conditions.

  1. Prices are going up, better act fast.
  2. Alternatively, prices are falling, homes won't last long at these prices.

  1. Interest rates are going up, better buy quick before you get priced out.
  2. Alternatively, mortgage rates are falling, they won't go much lower.

  1. Inventory is huge. It's a buyers' market.
  2. Alternatively, Inventory is shrinking fast. Don't let your dream home pass you by.


Rule Number Two

Unless you specifically have a buyers' agent negotiating on your behalf, the agent represents the seller.

Rule Number Three

The agent has only two missions:
  • To get you to buy something
  • To get you to pay as much as possible so the agent make the largest commission possible

Rule Number Four

As a result of rules one, two, and three, it is imperative to be skeptical about anything positive your agent says.

Rule Number Five

It's equally important, if not more important, to take cues from what the agent does not say. For example, if the agent does not say anything about the school district, it is probably a poorly rated school district. Also, don't expect the agent to tell you if a crack house is next door, gangs have taken over a neighboring block, the tap water tastes like sulfur, or the street floods every April. At most, agents will only disclose what the law says they must.

How Big is the Pool of Eligible Home Buyers?

Here is a set of questions that will explain what is happening now.

How many people ....
  1. Don't have a house?
  2. Want a house?
  3. Can afford a house, upkeep, and property taxes?
  4. Have a needed cash cushion in the bank?
  5. Have a decent down payment for a house?
  6. Have a salary that can support interest and principal payments even at these low rates?
  7. Are not scared s*less about the loss of a job, assuming they do want a house and meet the rest of the conditions?
Someone needs to meet all of those conditions before they will buy a new house. How many is that?

I just happen to have the answer.

New Home Sales at 1963 Levels

The Los Angeles Times reports New home sales drop to six-month low
Sales of newly built homes fell in July to the lowest level in six months, as the nation's housing market continues to struggle.

Newly constructed single-family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 298,000, putting the industry on a pace to post the lowest annual sales since the Commerce Department began keeping data in 1963.
Is the eligible buyers' pool getting bigger or smaller?

The trend says smaller, in spite of falling interest rates and falling prices. Many items on my 7 point list are more important than interest rates, notably 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7.

That is the psychology of the situation and I see little reason for it to change until the labor market changes first.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Hurricane Irene Cuts Power to Over 1 Million; U.S. Airlines Scrub 9,500 Flights; World Trade Center Construction at Risk

Posted: 27 Aug 2011 07:04 PM PDT

Here is a quick roundup of stories related to Hurricane Irene.

AccuWeather reports Irene Cuts Power to a Million Plus; Eyeing the Northeast
Aug 27, 2011; 7:50 PM ET
"As of Saturday evening, over a million customers were without power in Virginia, North Carolina, Maryland and Delaware."

Hurricane Irene made landfall on Cape Lookout in eastern North Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane and will continue track to the north with conditions deteriorating for millions across the mid-Atlantic through tonight.

8:30 p.m. EDT Saturday, Aug. 27: The eye of Hurricane Irene has emerged back over water about 35 miles east of Norfolk, Va. Wind gusts to hurricane force (74 mph or greater) will continue to be experienced near and to the north of the center, along with a damaging storm surge. Doppler radar estimates over 17.50 inches of rain has fallen in parts of North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia with confirmed reports between 10.00 and 14.00 inches.

Suffolk, Va., has received nearly 10.50 inches of rain thus far and was indicating widespread flooding in the city. Rainfall was increasing rapidly in Delaware and southern New Jersey with multiple locations now over 3.00 inches.

Power outages have had an impact on data collection in North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Over 3/4 of the Dominion Power customers in the Richmond Metro area are without power at the present time.

Irene threatens to bring the worst effects from a hurricane in 50 years in a large part of the I-95 Northeast in terms of flooding and power outages.
There are lots of videos in that Weather Channel Link.

U.S. Airlines Scrub 9,500 Flights

Bloomberg reports U.S. Airlines Scrub 9,500 Flights as Irene Threatens N.Y.
U.S. carriers including United Continental Holdings Inc. (UAL) and Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) scrubbed more than 9,500 flights as Hurricane Irene churned up the East Coast and shuttered airports in New York, the nation's busiest travel market.

American Airlines halted New York City-area flights as of 10 a.m. local time, while United and Delta earlier scrubbed their full schedules. The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey closed John F. Kennedy and LaGuardia airports and three smaller facilities to arriving flights as of noon local time as the city awaited heavy rain and wind.

"We need to make sure that we give our customers and our employees ample time to get home" before mass transit systems are closed, said Andrea Huguely, an American spokeswoman.

Philadelphia's airport remains open, although airlines have reduced arrivals and departures throughout the day and none are scheduled for tomorrow, said Victoria Lupica, an airport spokeswoman. The airport terminals will remain open for passengers who may be stuck at the facility.

The six biggest U.S. airlines canceled at least 9,570 flights today through Aug. 29 because of the storm. Another 334 were scrubbed earlier in the week as the hurricane approached. New York officials suspended train, bus and subway service at noon today, making it harder for workers and passengers to reach airports. More than 370,000 people were ordered to evacuate low- lying areas.
World Trade Center Construction at Risk

AccuWeather reports World Trade Center Construction at Risk from Irene's Winds
Construction at the site of the World Trade Center memorial, Reflecting Absence, has been halted due to Hurricane Irene.

The Mayor Michael Bloomberg suspended construction on Friday and crews disassembled the cranes that were on site, according to Latimes.com. This was done to prevent the cranes from coming apart in high winds, crashing to the ground and causing major damage to anything or anyone below.

Despite dismantling the cranes and securing building supplies, there is still a risk of damage to the building itself. Winds are expected to be sustained at 50-60 mph with gusts to 65-75 mph as Irene impacts New York Sunday morning, according to AccuWeather meteorologists.

Wind can be funneled between tall buildings increasing wind speed.

Glass windows have already been placed toward the center of the building. The wind could dislodge the windows. The windows become dangerous as they fall and break or could even be blown into other buildings and cause more damage.

This is an issue not only for the construction site of the World Trade Center, but for any construction sites along the path of the storm.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Capital Flight Proves Confidence in European Interbank System has Collapsed

Posted: 27 Aug 2011 10:49 AM PDT

Capital flight from European banks has now reached such a state that for one undisclosed bank needed emergency funding last week for a mere $5 million. Previously, the ECB stepped in to provide $500 million in emergency liquidity measures to non-disclosed banks.

As money flees Europe, it lands in US banks that do not know what to do with it. Capital flight has led to negative interest rates in the US.

DurationU.S. Japan Germany UK
3-Month-.010.100.970.51
6-Month0.020.110.560.59
12-Month0.080.120.590.53
2-Year0.190.140630.59
3-Year0.320.170.670.75
5-Year0.930.341.201.36
7-Year1.520.591.631.84
10-Year2.181.042.142.49
30-Year3.552.012.983.75


Swelling US Deposits as Money Flees Europe

For a look at European Bank funding needs please see 8 Trillion Euros in Borrow-Short Lend-Long Madness at European Banks; Circuit-Breaker Silliness; Dash for Cash Sends Short-Term Rates Negative Again

"Lehman-Like" Credit Crunch Hits EU

For discussion of the European credit crunch and $500 million in emergency liquidity measures to undisclosed banks, please see "Lehman-Like" Credit Crunch Hits EU; ECB Will Not Disclose Affected Banks; Euro-Style Anxiety Spreads to U.S.

$5 Million in Emergency Funding

$5 million is a trivial amount. That a bank would need it is not.

Jean-Pierre Chevallier writing on Business économiste monétariste behavioriste discusses the stetup in his latest post ECB: no more bets! More…
The situation is out of control in the euro zone, as I have been writing it for a while…

The interbank market does not work because euro-zone banks managers have lost confidence in other banks. So they keep their cash in US$ rather than lending it to other banks that need it as they would in normal times: ECB had loaned $5 million to a bank on August, 25.

ECB had previously loaned $500 million (USD) on August 17. This caused a flash-crash in U.S. markets.

The problem is serious.
Chevallier notes that the paltry amount of money involved "shows that the interbank system is completely blocked".

Trust in European banks is shot, and by hiding the banks needing emergency liquidity funding, distrust spreads to all banks in the system. Then again, why shouldn't distrust spread?

The entire global financial system is bankrupt. Loans have been made that cannot and will not be paid back.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List