Central Perk

sâmbătă, 28 ianuarie 2012

Foursquare 2012 | Experience, Thoughts and 6 Immense Tips for Your Business

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 06:32 AM PST

My Foursquare Experience so far…

Like many other people over the past few months I have been using Foursquare quite a bit, as shown below. I have knocked up quite a few mayorships and badges, but sadly I have already found it very monotonous and not at all engaging.

To be fair, Foursquare is great at the beginning with collecting the badges, stealing mayorships, getting those "Foursquare specials" and "Sharing with your friends". Well the last two I did not experience; working in Paddington I would presume that businesses would be flocking with specials, but sadly not, and in terms of sharing with friends I have none (on Foursquare). With myself not experiencing two of the most important factors of Foursquare, this has sadly hindered now a relationship with the platform (for now). In what I have found is a similar occurrence to Google+, the number of "real people" on there (and active users within the UK) is, I would imagine, not staggering.

Despite my negativity and social neglect of Foursquare as of this month, I do believe it will be a bigger issue this year amongst companies (especially SMEs and franchises) to start rolling out and using this social media platform. Using Foursquare has really helped me in understanding why businesses should start using this social media platform and how to use it most effectively.

Does your Business Foursquare?

If you were to ask most businesses about what social media platforms they use to market their company, I suppose you could name a few, popular ones being Facebook, Twitter, Flickr, and if you are really savvy (but not really), Google+.

But how many of us have thought about using Foursquare as a marketing platform for their business? I am going to go out on a limb and say probably less than 5% use Foursquare and to its full potential; an infographic that I saw last year outlined the number of small businesses using social media, with Foursquare not even being mentioned in the Top 7. Even today, the fact remains that Foursquare is still not being recognised, which was exemplified when I took part in a business social media survey last night, shown below:

Shown from the screenshot, not only has Foursquare not been recognised, but what is interesting is that Google+ and Pinterest have not been included. Also, their list showed that wikis were a more of a popular option.

Should my business start using Foursquare?

As I envisage Foursquare to get bigger and better, businesses will find it particularly useful for:

Maximising their social media efforts.
Looking to improve their multi-channel marketing efforts.
Digital-only brands to build upon their online reputation.
Great way of testing new products to market.
Source of market research to help understand their consumers better.

6 Immense Tips for Your Business to Capitalise on Foursquare

There are many ways for your business to make the best use of Foursquare and making the"Foursquare Special" better. Here are my Top 6 Tips.

1) Make your check-ins more useful

As exciting as check-ins are, after a while users are bound to get bored of them, so capitalise on using them better; for example, it was reported by Tnooz that the Radisson Edwardian chain of hotels were offering guests the chance to keep their rooms for longer, if they checked in via Foursquare. The hotel chain gave guests an extra two hours in their room.

2) Review and monitor your tips section

Be sure to monitor your tips section and understand what people are saying about your brand via Foursquare. Not only is this a great way for "free market research", it is like having the service of a mystery shopper without the costs.

3) Create location-based experiences

If your business has one or more location, don't just have a standard special across all the branches. Include specific ones, for example if your business is near a seaside resort or within the city. Have a special offer that is unique to that place to ensure they that your branch capitalises on that specific location’s resources.

4) Capitalising on low-cost impulse items

This idea works particularly well for businesses that sell cheap items, that people buy on impulse. Reach out to people in the surrounding area to let them know of a "free cup of coffee with a cake" or "buy one doughnut, get one free."

5) Marketing new/seasonal products

Broadcasting new/seasonal items is a great way of using the “Foursquare Special” to letting your consumers know of any new products or services available, and that they should try them out as soon as possible!

6) Understand and review your specials

When you set up "Foursquare Special", don't just have one special set up and done; alternate them and see what works best for you. For example, if you own a restaurant, don't just have "free glass of wine for the mayor", but alternate them – "5% off Winter menu for check-ins", "20% off food bill for the mayor" or even "15% off total food bill on the 10^th visit." Play around with them to give new incentives and better engagement for the users.

2012 The Year of Foursquare (and the dragon)

With huge savings and partnerships already established in 2011 within the U.S, for example H&M, Sports Authority and Dunkin' Donuts on board, I envisage that Foursquare will only get bigger and better for us in 2012, and be adopted as another popular social media platform to help businesses improve their sales.

What Could Google’s New Privacy Policy Mean for PPC?

Posted: 26 Jan 2012 08:33 AM PST

Earlier in the week Google announced changes to its privacy policies. The main changes are that:

Now nearly all Google products are covered by one privacy policy.
Information you give Google's various different services can be combined.

Google still promises not to sell personal data, but to only share aggregated, non-personally identifiable information. It hasn't announced that it's collecting information it wasn't before, just that it's combining what it has differently. You can preview the new policy here.

According to Forbes, combining information between Google services has been allowed by the privacy policies since 2005. But this didn't stop the FTC complaining of privacy policy violations when Google used data from Gmail accounts when launching Google Buzz in 2010 – Google's policy at the time also said "If we use this [personal] information in a manner different than the purpose for which it was collected, then we will ask for your consent prior to such use." The new policy instead says "We will ask for your consent before using information for a purpose other than those that are set out in this Privacy Policy." Still, the FTC complaint may be a factor in why Google is trying to be very clear to its users about what it's doing with their data, as it starts to treat all of its products as parts of a single unified service.

And now, some speculation on what this may or may not mean for PPC and SEO:

Interest-based targeting may improve. Currently Google uses DoubleClick cookies to place users into interest categories based on the sites they visit – you can see what Google thinks you like here. The changes mean Google could infer interests from searches or Google+ activity as well, which should improve accuracy.
Demographics targeting might be available more widely. Currently targeting by age-group and gender is only an option on sites where users supply that information. But Google's demographic information (from YouTube or Google+ accounts) could be used for targeting on other sites as well.
New ways of targeting Display Network advertising may appear. For example it could be possible to target people based on what Google Products they use – advertise Analytics training to Analytics users, say, or push Google+ users to circle your Google+ page.
New ways of targeting Google Search advertising may appear. AdCenter already allows targeting based on age-group and gender when advertising on Search: Google could do the same.
There will be even more changes to the SERPs – Google's announcement says the change will let them "better understand which version of Pink or Jaguar you’re searching for". But perhaps it will also add more than help with disambiguation, adding to the personalisation of the SERPs we're already seeing with Search Plus Your World.

Have you any idea what Google is (or could be) planning? Share your thoughts in the comments.

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The honest broker

It really is a choice, one or the other.

Either you happily recommend the best option for your customer, or you give preference to your own items first.

Either you believe in what you sell, or you don't.

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• Email to a friend •

vineri, 27 ianuarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Prepare for Greece to Leave Eurozone; German Government Calls for Greece to Cede Sovereignty Over Tax and Spending Decisions to Eurozone "Budget Commissioner"; Text of the German Demands
2010-2011 Originations Best Default History on Record; Delinquencies Down 25% from Highs, Foreclosure Inventory Near Peak Level
GDP on Recession Track; Real GDP +2.8%, Misses Estimates; Inventory Replenishment Accounts for 1.9 Percentage Points; Five-Year Treasury Yield Hits Record Low
Portugal 10-Year Government Bond Yield at Record High
Greek Debt Solution Likely to Trigger Credit Default Swaps

Prepare for Greece to Leave Eurozone; German Government Calls for Greece to Cede Sovereignty Over Tax and Spending Decisions to Eurozone "Budget Commissioner"; Text of the German Demands

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 04:10 PM PST

Prepare for Greece to exit the Eurozone. Germany has made a request that in my opinion practically guarantees that outcome. The Financial Times has a pair of articles on the matter but the conclusion above is mine.

German Government Calls for Greece to Cede Sovereignty to Eurozone "Budget Commissioner"

Please consider Call for EU to Control Greek Budget

The German government wants Greece to cede sovereignty over tax and spending decisions to a eurozone "budget commissioner" to secure a second €130bn bail-out, according to a copy of the proposal obtained by the Financial Times.

In what would amount to an extraordinary extension of European Union control over a member state, the new commissioner would have the power to veto budget decisions taken by the Greek government if they were not in line with targets set by international lenders. The new administrator, appointed by other eurozone finance ministers, would take responsibility for overseeing "all major blocks of expenditure" by the Greek government.

Even before Germany circulated its proposal, the EU and International Monetary Fund had presented a 10-page list of "prior actions" Athens must implement before the new bail-out is agreed. According to a copy of the document, also obtained by the FT, Greece must cut an additional 150,000 government jobs within three years.

Actual Text of Proposal

The Financial Times posted on its website the complete text of the proposal. Here are snips from Assurance of Compliance in the 2nd GRC Programme

1. Absolute priority to debt service
Greece has to legally commit itself to giving absolute priority to future debt service. This commitment has to be legally enshrined by the Greek Parliament. State revenues are to be used first and foremost for debt service, only any remaining revenue may be used to finance primary expenditure. This will reassure public and private creditors that the Hellenic Republic will honour its comittments after PSI and will positively influence market access. De facto elimination of the possibility of a default would make the threat of a non-disbursement of a GRC II tranche much more credible. If a future tranche is not disbursed, Greece can not threaten its lenders with a default, but will instead have to accept further cuts in primary expenditures as the only possible consequence of any non-disbursement.

2. Transfer of national budgetary sovereignty
Budget consolidation has to be put under a strict steering and control system. Given the disappointing compliance so far, Greece has to accept shifting budgetary sovereignty to the European level for a certain period of time. A budget commissioner has to be appointed by the Eurogroup with the task of ensuring budgetary control. He must have the power a) to implement a centralized reporting and surveillance system covering all major blocks of expenditure in the Greek budget, b) to veto decisions not in line with the budgetary targets set by the Troika and c) will be tasked to ensure compliance with the above mentioned rule to prioritize debt service.

Expect Greek "Bank Holiday" Soon

Perhaps I am mistaken but I do not see any chance Greece will agree with this proposal.

German and IMF demands make meaningless any hint of a deal "soon". Germany has signaled it has had enough and will not throw another 130 billion euros down a rathole. The IMF signaled the same thing but not as emphatically.

Thus, if Germany does not back down and the IMF insists on a 10-page list of "prior actions" a Greek exit from the Eurozone is at hand.

Look for a "bank holiday" in Greece soon.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

2010-2011 Originations Best Default History on Record; Delinquencies Down 25% from Highs, Foreclosure Inventory Near Peak Level

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 01:10 PM PST

Here are a couple of interesting charts from the LPS Mortgage Monitor, January 2012 Mortgage Performance Observations report. Data as of December, 2011 Month-end.

click on any chart for sharper image

Originations Decline

Government Responsible for Most Refinance Activity

Quality of Loans Improves

Foreclosure Inventory Near Peak Level

Horrendous Performance of Loans in Foreclosure in Judicial States

The quality of recent loans has gone up and delinquencies are lower, but the rest of the data shows numerous problems. Foreclosure inventory is near record levels and more foreclosures wait in the wings. Home sales has stalled and home prices continue to decline according to Case Shiller.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

GDP on Recession Track; Real GDP +2.8%, Misses Estimates; Inventory Replenishment Accounts for 1.9 Percentage Points; Five-Year Treasury Yield Hits Record Low

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 09:45 AM PST

The headline real GDP number of 2.8% does not sound too bad until you dig beneath the surface. A full 1.9 percentages points of that 2.8% was inventory replenishment. Real GDP vs. a year ago is +1.6% and that is on a recession track as well.

Five-Year Treasury Yield Hits Record Low

Bloomberg reports Treasury Five-Year Yield Declines to Record Low as GDP Misses Forecast

Treasury five-year note yields fell to a third consecutive record low after slower-than-forecast U.S. growth added to speculation the Federal Reserve will expand asset purchases to spur economic growth.

Ten-year note yields fluctuated as stockpile rebuilding accounted for 1.9 percentage points of the 2.8 percent economic expansion, sparking concern growth may be weaker than expected in the first three-months of this year. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said Jan. 25 he's considering additional bond purchases to boost growth after the Federal Open Market Committee announced that the target lending rate would stay low through late 2014.

Yield Curve over Time

click on chart for sharper image

Stock Symbols in Above Chart

$IRX Brown: 3-Month Yield
$FVX Blue: 5-Year Yield
$TNX Orange 10-Year Yield
$TYX Green: 30-Year Yield

Sustained economic weakness is the only reasonable explanation for this decline in yields. Yes, there is Fed intervention. However, the reason the Fed is intervening is "sustained economic weakness".

However, the Fed's actions are counterproductive. Driving down interest rates does not encourage bank lending, rather it does five things the Fed does not want.

Five Unwanted Results of Fed Policy

Low interest rates clobbers those on fixed income - See Hello Ben Bernanke, Meet "Stephanie"
Low interest rates and quantitative easing encourages bond market speculation and sure profits instead of bank lending - See Premature Dollar Obituaries and Mainstream Economists' Monetary Insanity; Keynes-Inspired Great Depression; Lessons Not Learned
Low interest rates encourage commodities speculation especially food and energy and that puts a price squeeze on manufactures. Input prices rise, but demand and prices decline. - See Chart of the Day: Apparel Import Data in Square Meters and Dollars; J.C. Penney's Slashes Prices on All Merchandise by "At Least 40%", Offers Every Day Low Pricing
Low interest rates drives up the price of gold - See Gold, Silver, $HUI React to Bernanke Pledge to Hold Rates near Zero "At Least" through Late 2014; Hello Stephanie, Ben Promises More of the Same
The beneficiaries of the Greenspan Fed and the Bernanke Fed policies have been the 1% not the 99%

Fed Policy Not Working

Fed policy is not working, nor will it work.

This is what happens when an academic wonk with no real-world practical thinking sits in a box with other academic wonks with no real world experience and they collectively divine economic policy as if they were god.

The Fed is responsible for the housing bubble, the resultant collapse, and the anemic economic recovery.

GDP on Recession Track

Here is an interesting chart from Doug Short regarding Real GDP and the Next Recession

click on chart for sharper image

Doug Short writes ...

As the chart illustrates, the latest YoY real GDP, at 1.6% is up from last quarter's 1.5% (to two decimal points it's 1.56% versus 1.46% for Q3). At 1.6% the YoY number is below the level at the onset of all the recessions since quarterly GDP was first calculated — with one exception: The six-month recession in 1980 started in a quarter with lower YoY GDP (at two decimal places it was 1.42% versus today's 1.56%). And only on one occasion (Q1 2007) has YoY GDP dropped below 1.6% without a recession starting in the same quarter. In that case the recession began three quarters later in December 2007.

In contrast to popular belief, recessions typically start with GDP in positive territory. As you can see, Real GDP vs. a year ago is +1.6% and that is consistent with a recession track.

It is highly likely Bernanke was aware in advance that a full 1.9 percentages points of that 2.8% rise in GDP was inventory replenishment when he pledged on Wednesday to "Hold Rates near Zero "At Least" through Late 2014" and opened the door for another round of Quantitative easing as well.

Nonetheless, for reasons noted above, another round of quantitative easing will be counterproductive. The beneficiaries of Bernanke policy will be the 1%, not the 99%.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Portugal 10-Year Government Bond Yield at Record High

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 09:39 AM PST

With an involuntary Greek debt restructuring in the works (see Greek Debt Solution Likely to Trigger Credit Default Swaps) it's time to focus on the next involuntary debt restructuring.

Portugal 10-Year Government Bond Yield

Expect a currency crisis to erupt in Portugal at any time. Round-after-round of emergency meetings (and all of them will fail), are just around the corner.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greek Debt Solution Likely to Trigger Credit Default Swaps

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 08:12 AM PST

European finance ministers and politicians have come to the conclusion that a deal, even one involving a credit event, is better than no deal at all. Thus it is increasingly likely the Greek Debt Wrangle will trigger credit default swaps.

Opposition to payouts on Greek credit-default swaps from European Union policy makers is softening as disputes over a voluntary debt exchange threaten to push the nation into default.

Any agreement between the Greek government and the Washington-based Institute of International Finance on debt writedowns will only bind 50 percent of investors in the 206 billion euros ($270 billion) of notes being negotiated, Barclays Capital estimates. Hedge funds may resist a deal, seeking to get paid in full or compensated from insurance contracts

"Politicians seem less concerned than before about CDS triggers," said Michael Hampden-Turner, a credit strategist at Citigroup Inc. in London. "Having a payout on Greek CDS is probably better than the alternative: a loss in market faith of the product's ability to provide a hedge against sovereign risk."

Officials, including former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, have insisted that a swaps trigger was unacceptable because traders would be encouraged to bet against indebted nations and worsen the crisis.

Greece said it may impose losses on investors who fail to support the debt restructuring by adding a so-called collective action clause, or CAC, into its bond documentation. That would force holdouts to accept the same terms as the majority.

Use of CACs would trigger a restructuring credit event and a payout of default swaps, according to rules from the International Swaps & Derivatives Association.

"A CAC is looking increasingly like the best option," Citigroup's Hampden-Turner said. "That route seems to tick a lot of boxes: they don't have a bond default, the official sector gets treated differently than the private sector, and everybody has to participate in the exchange without anybody getting paid in full."

ECB Opposition

While the ECB oppose any involuntary restructuring of Greek debt, policy makers such as Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager say they aren't against a credit event.

The softer stance signals Greece is unlikely to get sufficient participation in a voluntary bond swap to make its debt burden sustainable.

The ECB is now alone in its opposition to a credit event. Then again, the ECB alone was against haircuts, soft defaults etc.

As late as May 7, 2011 former ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet insisted there would be "no Greek debt restructuring". I wrote about it in Trichet Reiterates Restructuring "Not on the Agenda", Market Reiterates "Trichet is a Pompous Fool".

Since then there have been two restructurings, and we are now headed for an involuntary restructuring that will trigger credit default swaps.

I suspect an effort will be made to placate the ECB somewhat so that the ECB does not take a loss on the 40 billion euros of Greek debt it stupidly bought, but otherwise, the ECB is about to have this crammed down their throats.

Portugal waits on deck.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

sâmbătă, 28 ianuarie 2012

Foursquare 2012 | Experience, Thoughts and 6 Immense Tips for Your Business

Foursquare 2012 | Experience, Thoughts and 6 Immense Tips for Your Business

6 Immense Tips for Your Business to Capitalise on Foursquare