vineri, 16 martie 2012

Health Care: What's Your Story?

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Friday, March 16, 2012
 

Health Care: What's Your Story?

Two years ago, President Obama signed the Affordable Care Act -- legislation to improve our health care system -- into law, and millions of Americans are seeing a noticeable difference in the cost and quality of their health care.

That includes the 23 year-old looking for a job who can now stay on her parents' insurance plan, and the mother whose insurance now covers a pre-existing eye condition for her son.

But we need your story. How has the health care law made a difference for you or your family?

West Wing Week: "Leveling the Playing Field"

WWW 031612

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

USAID and OIC: Working Together to Save Lives
Working together, USAID and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation will be more effective, reach more people in need, and have a stronger impact.

American Energy: The Facts
There are some who want to paint a bleak picture of the state of American energy, so let’s take a look at the facts.

Taking the Path from Prison to Service with AmeriCorps
AmeriCorps provided the support Ely Flores needed to lead a life of success and integrity after spending four years in and out of prison.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

10:15 AM: The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews
                 
10:45 AM: The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route Chicago, Illinois

12:40 PM: The President arrives Chicago, Illinois
          
1:20 PM: The President delivers remarks at a campaign event
           
2:35 PM: The President attends a campaign event

4:00 PM: The President departs Chicago, Illinois, en route Atlanta, Georgia

5:30 PM: The President arrives Atlanta, Georgia

6:35 PM: The President delivers remarks at a campaign event

8:25 PM: The President delivers remarks at a campaign event

10:55 PM: The President departs Atlanta, Georgia, en route Joint Base Andrews

12:25 AM: The President arrives Joint Base Andrews

12:40 AM: The President arrives at the White House

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

Get Updates

Sign up for the Daily Snapshot

Stay Connected

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Manage Subscriptions for e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Sign Up for Updates from the White House

Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy

Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

 

Seth's Blog : Specific promises, kept

Specific promises, kept

We live in a vague world. And it gets vaguer all the time. There are so many waffle words, so many equivocations, so many ways to sort of say what we kind of intend to possibly do...

In this environment, the power of the specific, measurable and useful promise made and kept is difficult to overstate. And if you can do it regularly, on time and without a fuss, we will notice.

[If it's not working for you, perhaps you need to make and keep bigger promises. "Service excellence is our goal," doesn't count.]

 

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498

 

joi, 15 martie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


California Tax Revenues Plunge; Businesses Exit "Taxifornia" in Droves; Piecing Together the Jobs-Picture Puzzle

Posted: 15 Mar 2012 02:59 PM PDT

California Tax Revenue Plunges

Inquiring minds have noticed a huge plunge in California Tax Revenue for the month of February compared to February 2011.



That is a 22.55% plunge in spite of the fact that this February was a leap year adding a day to the calendar.

Madeline Schnapp, at TrimTabs Investment Research sent me a quick note regarding that plunge a few days ago.

Madeline writes...
Hello Mish

I came across this little tidbit from the February report from the Comptroller's office of the State of CA.

In Feb 2012 income tax receipts are down $328 million y-o-y, or 16.5%. Ouch!

What about retail sales taxes? CA had a "temporary" sales tax hike of one cent that expired last July. Adjust the data to reflect that change, it looks like sales taxes in February are $400 million y-o-y +/-, a decline of about 12.4%. Double ouch!

That doesn't sound like robust growth to me.

Something About the Economy Doesn't Add Up

In Piecing Together the Jobs-Picture Puzzle, Jon Hilsenrath at The Wall Street Journal wonders "How can an economy that is growing so slowly produce such big declines in unemployment?"
Something about the U.S. economy isn't adding up.

At 8.3%, the unemployment rate has fallen 0.7 percentage point from a year earlier and is down 1.7 percentage points from a peak of 10% in October 2009. Many other measures of the job market are improving. Companies have expanded payrolls by more than 200,000 a month for the past three months, according to Labor Department data. And the number of people filing claims for government unemployment benefits has fallen.

Yet the economy is barely growing. Many economists in the past few weeks have again reduced their estimates of growth. The economy by many estimates is on track to grow at an annual rate of less than 2% in the first three months of 2012. The economy expanded just 1.7% last year. And since the final months of 2009, when unemployment peaked, the economy has expanded at a pretty paltry 2.5% annual rate.

How can an economy that is growing so slowly produce such big declines in unemployment?
Trimtabs thinks the problem lies in the heavily massaged BLS employment data and the highly suspect BEA personal income data.

That said, withholding tax data is also messy and not a perfect measure either, but no matter what I do with the data, I can't get to 200,000+ jobs unless a huge percentage of the workforce is suddenly working for McDonalds

Best,

Madeline Schnapp
Director, Macroeconomic Research
TrimTabs Investment Research
Many Explanations for the Unemployment Puzzle

There are many explanations for the "miracle drop" in unemployment.

  1. Disability Fraud: Disability Fraud Holds Down Unemployment Rate; Jobless Disability Claims Hit Record $200B in January
  2. Exploding growth in student loans and middle-aged job hopefuls returning to school: Consumer Credit "Demolishes Expectations" Really? No Not Really! The "Non-Bounce" in Non-Revolving Credit
  3. Involuntary Retirement: Boomers of retirement age that still want and need a job have involuntarily retired to collect social security because unemployment benefts rans out and they have no other source of income.

Divergence with Gallup

Those there things piece together the "unemployment puzzle" nicely except for one thing. Gallup polls do not agree as noted in Gallup Reports Large Jump in Unemployment to 9.1%, Underemployment to 19.1%.
U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, increased to 9.1% in February from 8.6% in January and 8.5% in December.



The 0.5-percentage-point increase in February compared with January is the largest such month-to-month change Gallup has recorded in its not-seasonally adjusted measure since December 2010, when the rate rose 0.8 points to 9.6% from 8.8% in November.
So, is the BLS carefully massaging the data, or are their seasonal adjustments simply that far out of line with reality, tax collections, and common sense?

Businesses Exit California in Droves

Madeline and I are not the only ones who noticed the plunge in California. Chriss W. Street on Beitbart discusses the California Exodus behind the drop. Street has the reason: Businesses fed up with high taxes have fled the state.
California politicians seem delusional in their continued delusion that high taxes have not savaged the State's economy. Each month's disappointment is written off as due to some one-time event.

The more likely reason tax collections continue falling is that businesses and successful people are leaving California for the better tax rates available in more pro-business states.

Derisively referred to as "Taxifornia" by the independent Pacific Research Institute, California wins the booby prize for the highest personal income taxes in the nation and higher sales tax rates than all but four other states. Though Californians benefit from Proposition 13 restrictions on how much their property tax can increase in one year, the state still has the worst state tax burden in the U.S.

Spectrum Locations Consultants recorded 254 California companies moved some or all of their work and jobs out of state in 2011, 26% more than in 2010 and five times as many as in 2009. According SLC President, Joe Vranich: the "top ten reasons companies are leaving California: 1) Poor rankings in surveys 2) More adversarial toward business 3) Uncontrollable public spending 4) Unfriendly business climate 5) Provable savings elsewhere 6) Most expensive business locations 7) Unfriendly legal environment for business 8) Worst regulatory burden 9) Severe tax treatment 10) Unprecedented energy costs.

Vranich considers California the worst state in the nation to locate a business and Los Angeles is considered the worst city to start a business. Leaving Los Angeles for another surrounding county can save businesses 20% of costs. Leaving the state for Texas can save up to 40% of costs. This probably explains why California lost 120,000 jobs last year and Texas gained 130,000 jobs.

California Governor Jerry Brown's answer to the State's failing economy and crumbling tax revenue is to place a $6 billion tax increase initiative on the ballot to support K-12 public schools. He promises to only "temporarily" raise personal income rates by 25% on any of the rich folk who haven't already left.
Taxed to Death

If Brown continues to suck up to the public unions responsible for the mess California is in, expect still more businesses to leave, expect the unemployment rate to rise, and expect a continued plunge in revenue.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


"Curbs Needed to Avoid China Property Chaos" Says China's Premier; Chinese Economy Already in Hard Landing? Regardless, It's Too Late to Prevent Chaos

Posted: 15 Mar 2012 10:04 AM PDT

JPMorgan analyst Adrian Mowat says Chinese Economy Already in 'Hard Landing'
"If you look at the Chinese data, you should stop debating about a hard landing," Mowat, who is based in Hong Kong, said at a conference in Singapore yesterday. "China is in a hard landing. Car sales are down, cement production is down, steel production is down, construction stocks are down. It's not a debate anymore, it's a fact." His team was a runner-up for best Asian equity strategists in a 2011 Institutional Investor magazine poll.

Mowat said in May the risk of a hard landing was building in China as fixed-asset investment in real estate had increased even as property demand remained weak. That meant residential inventories will increase and lead to a contraction in construction activity, he said in a May 17 interview.

Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a Springfield, New Jersey-based consultancy firm, said on Feb. 2 that China's economy is headed for a "hard landing" this year as weaker demand overseas chokes off exports. Shilling, who correctly forecast the U.S. recession that began in December 2007, defines a hard landing as a growth rate below 6 percent.

Shilling and Mowat's views are in contrast with Yale University Professor Stephen Roach, a former non-executive chairman for Morgan Stanley in Asia, who said on March 8 that concerns China will enter a hard landing are "vastly overblown."

"I don't think the banking system will collapse and the property bubble will burst," Roach said at a conference in Shanghai. "These are all exaggerations."
Roach's Misses the Boat 

Bubbles always burst. Moreover, it should be plain to see

  1. China has a huge property bubble
  2. China's banking sector is unsound
  3. China's state-owned-enterprises (SOEs)  are in horrible shape
  4. China's over-reliance on investments with no genuine economic feasibility guarantee China's current boom is not sustainable.

"Hard Landing" Depends on the Definition

Shilling says growth under 6% is a hard landing. Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets makes a strong case for Only 3% Growth for Decade

I think Pettis' growth target is correct, but I am not sure he calls that result "a hard landing". I do, and it will shock a lot of people when it happens.

Jim Chanos is not one of those who will be surprised. He is betting on growth as low as 0% as noted in China's Growth Won't Last; Chanos on Chinese Property Bubble and Growth.

"Curbs Needed to Avoid China Property Chaos"  

Even Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao knows China has a property bubble, one that has already popped but has much further yet to fall.

Bloomberg reports Wen Says Curbs Needed to Avoid China Property 'Chaos'
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that home prices remain far from a reasonable level and relaxing curbs could cause "chaos" in the market, indicating no imminent relaxation of cooling measures.

"We must not slacken our efforts in regulating the housing sector," Wen said at a press conference in Beijing today, according to an English translation. A bursting property bubble would hurt the entire economy, and the government wants "long- term steady and sound growth" in housing, he said.
Too Late to Prevent Chaos

Chinese property bubbles and malinvestments are too big, and the Chinese economy too unbalanced to prevent chaos. Indeed the only way to prevent chaos is to not let bubbles form in the first place.

The only question at hand regards the strength and length of the slowdown. I think Pettis has things about right, but I would also caution that risks are far skewed to the downside.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List


Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Beautiful Surfing at Byron Bay

Posted: 15 Mar 2012 12:28 AM PDT



The smooth surfer Jorgelina "Lina" Reyero hails from a small town on the Atlantic Coast of Argentina. She's spent the last 6 years wandering the world with her surfboard in tow and has wound up near the beautiful Wategos Beach. Last month, she mounted a little camera to the nose of her log and captured the beauty of an empty surf. Locally based production company 'Rest Your Eyes' then glued up the tapes for your viewing pleasure.


Exploding Iceberg in Antarctica

Posted: 15 Mar 2012 12:11 AM PDT



Cruising the waters around Antarctica may not appeal to everyone's sense of adventure, but passengers on this ship got a real shock when the iceberg they were passing in Wilhelmina Bay suddenly exploded.


Via: Alltop


Photo Gallery: Your Backstage Pass to the UK State Arrival

The White House Your Daily Snapshot for
Thursday, March 15, 2012
 

Photo Gallery: Your Backstage Pass to the UK State Arrival

President Obama welcomed Prime Minister David Cameron of the United Kingdom to town this week for an official visit. The two leaders reviewed the troops assembled as an honor guard for the occasion, and talked about "the rock-solid alliance" between the United States and the United Kingdom.

At a joint press conference in the Rose Garden, both leaders expressed interest in a cross-cultural sports exchange -- Prime Minister Cameron offered the President an introduction to cricket in exchange for his crash-course in bracketology.

Check out the full gallery of photos from yesterday’s ceremony.

POTUS UK State Arrival 031412

President Barack Obama and Prime Minister David Cameron of the United Kingdom shake hands with students during the Official Arrival Ceremony on the South Lawn, March 14, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Pete Souza)

In Case You Missed It

Here are some of the top stories from the White House blog:

UK State Dinner: What's On The Menu?
Guests at tonight's State Dinner will be treated to a meal that represents the best of American hospitality and includes playful references to classic British traditions.

Bridging the Pond: President Obama and Prime Minister Cameron Hold a Joint Press Conference
President Obama and Prime Minister Cameron hold a joint press conference on a sun-filled day on the Rose Garden.

AmeriCorps: Developing the Next Generation of Public Servants
For Bizunesh Scott, Special Assistant to the President for Presidential Personnel, the AmeriCorps program offered hope in a time of economic and personal struggle and prepared her for leadership through a full-time nonprofit apprenticeship and rigorous leadership training.

Today's Schedule

All times are Eastern Standard Time (EST).

10:55 AM: The President delivers remarks on American energy WhiteHouse.gov/live

11:00 AM: The Vice President delivers remarks at a campaign event

12:30 PM: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jay Carney WhiteHouse.gov/live

2:15 PM: The President meets with Treasury Secretary Geithner

5:10 PM: The President meets with senior advisors

WhiteHouse.gov/live Indicates that the event will be live-streamed on WhiteHouse.gov/Live

Get Updates

Sign up for the Daily Snapshot

Stay Connected

This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Manage Subscriptions for e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com
Sign Up for Updates from the White House

Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy

Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House

The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

 

Seth's Blog : We say we want a revolution...

We say we want a revolution...

Of course, what we say doesn't matter so much. What we do is what matters, and we have far more influence that we'd like to confess.

We say we want local merchants to offer great service, deep selection and community values, but we cross the street to the big box store to save $3.

We say we want companies to honor their promises and act transparently, but one new product or big discount from a business that has deceived us in the past and we come right back for more.

We say we're disgusted with Congress, but almost all of us vote to re-elect the dufus we sent there in the first place.

We say we hate spam, but we send it. And sometimes buy from it.

We say we'd like people to think first and act later, but we get cut off in traffic and all bets are off.

We say we love art, the brave work that touches us, but we listen to oldies and rarely head out to hear live music or visit a cutting edge gallery.

Hypocrisy may be an epidemic, but the problem isn't in what we say. It's what we do.

 

More Recent Articles

[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]

Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.




Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498