Central Perk

duminică, 9 iunie 2013

Get dad to create a wish list

What does dad really want for Father's Day? Ask him to start a wishlist on Pinterest! Maybe one of these pins will catch his eye…

For the foodie dad

For the sporty dad

For the techie dad

For the crafty dad

For the music-loving dad

For the dapper dad

Whether he's into fly-fishing, trying out the latest gadgets, or mastering his grilling technique, there's something for every dad on our Father's Day board. You can also check out what other people are pinning For Dad on Pinterest.

Happy pinning!

- The Pinterest Team

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Seth's Blog : Worst one ever

Worst one ever

Forty years ago today was my first bout of speaking in front of an audience. (And as I remember it, I approached it as a fight, not an opportunity.) I was distracted, nervous and not particularly well received.

It was an epic fail. Friends and relatives agreed that I wasn't engaged or engaging, certainly a performance not to be repeated.

I ignored the part about not repeating it, but I definitely learned some valuable lessons about confidence and engagement.

Just about anything worth doing is worth doing better, which means, of course, that (at least at first) there will be failure. That's not a problem (in the long run), it's merely a step along the way.

If you're not willing to get your 'worst one ever' out of the way, how will you possibly do better than that?

• Email to a friend •

sâmbătă, 8 iunie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Emails From French and Canadian Readers on "Preserving Culture" and the "Language Police"

Posted: 08 Jun 2013 11:04 AM PDT

I received still more emails from French and Canadian readers on preserving culture. Since it's a slow news day, let's take a look at them.

Olivier writes "Wouldn't a true conservative pay at least some respect to local cultural norms instead of trying to impose some economic diktat from on down?"

Talk about getting things ass backwards. It is the social police attempting to impose cultural and economic diktats to preserve the local bookstore and the local farm to the point of absolute absurdity.

Email From Canada

Reader Mike from Canada writes ...

Hi Mish,

I totally agree with the ridiculousness of bureaucrats and their attempts "to preserve" culture. The very meaning of the verb "to preserve" implies that the object being preserved is dead. One preserves fruits after they are picked, and bodies after they are dead. One cannot preserve a living thing.

A culture must continually adapt and grow to keep living, not be preserved.

I live in the province of Quebec, and unfortunately I can provide numerous examples on the government's inane attempts to preserve local French culture. Recently, the Quebec Language police made headlines when they tried to outlaw the use of the word "pasta" in Italian restaurants because it is not a French word. After the international hilarity that ensued and embarrassed them, the nannycrats backed down.

A great example of tax dollars being wasted.

Thanks for your posts,

Mike B
Montreal

Language Police

The above story sounds preposterous but is true. Please consider Is 'pasta' French enough for Quebec?

Quebec's language watchdog is backtracking after demanding a chic Montreal Italian restaurant change its menu because Italian words such as "pasta" were too predominant.

Massimo Lecas, owner of Buonanotte said he was contacted by the Office québécois de la langue française (OQLF) on Valentine's Day.

He said he was told the menu contains too much Italian.

He said he was also instructed to translate the Italian words for meatball and calamari into French, even though the descriptions for each of those menu items are already in French.

Earlier in the day, Martin Bergeron, a spokesman for the OQLF, said the language watchdog is not splitting hairs.

While he said he cannot discuss the specifics of the case, Bergeron said the law is clear.

"Other languages can be on the menu," he said. "The thing is they must not be predominant over French."

Battle over fish and chips

Brit & Chips, a fish and chip restaurant in the Côte-des-Neiges neighbourhood, also received a letter asking it to comply with the language police's guidelines.

The OQLF demanded that the owner, Toby Lyle, add the word "restaurant" predominantly above the eatery's name.

Lyle said he takes issue with the OQLF's order to translate the restaurant's main dish to "poisson frit et frites."

He said removing "fish and chips" from the window will push customers away.

Collision Course

Unfortunately it's not just France that suffers from such stupidity, it is all of Europe. Every year France blocks changes in agricultural subsidies that exist solely to prop up inefficient French farms. As a result everyone in Europe pays higher prices for produce and other farm goods.

Tariffs raise costs and restrain trade. Problems do not stop with agriculture and restaurants.

Inane work rules also designed to "preserve the French way of life" have put France and Germany are on a collision course over numerous issues including heated exchanges regarding productivity and trade with China.

For Further Reading

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Weekly Address: Time to Pass Commonsense Immigration Reform

Featured

Weekly Address: Time to Pass Commonsense Immigration Reform

In this week’s address, President Obama says that the United States Senate will soon take action to fix our broken immigration system with a commonsense bill, and urges lawmakers to act quickly to pass this bill so that we can continue to live up to our traditions as a nation of laws, and also a nation of immigrants.

Watch this week's Weekly Address.

Top Stories

Brazil: Last Friday, the Vice President and Dr. Biden made the final stop in their three-country trip in Brazil. While in Rio de Janeiro, Vice President Biden delivered a speech about the strong ties between the United States and Brazil.

“The United States and Brazil represent two of the largest, most innovative, dynamic economies in the world today. It is true both of us can continue to prosper whether or not we deepen our economic relations. But imagine, just imagine what these two dynamic economies could do with greater trade and investment for our people, for the hemisphere, for the world.”

#DontDoubleMyRate: Students gathered in the Rose Garden last Friday to hear President Obama echo his sentiment from last year and call on Congress to prevent federal student loan rates from doubling on July 1. President Obama asked the young people to speak out in favor of action on college affordability, as they did last summer.

"You made something bipartisan happen in this town that is -- that's a powerful thing. You guys were able to get Democrats and Republicans to vote for something that was important. So this year, if it looks like your representatives have changed their minds, you're going to have to call them up again or email them again or Tweet them again and ask them what happened, what changed?"

Mental Health Conference: Health care experts, psychologists, faith leaders, advocates for veterans, and administration officials joined President Obama at the White House on Monday for the National Conference on Mental Health.

The conference was just one part of the Obama Administration’s effort to combat this problem and focused on ways we can reduce the stigma and help the millions of Americans struggling with mental health problems recognize the importance of reaching out for assistance.

President Obama said:

“Too many Americans who struggle with mental health illnesses are still suffering in silence rather than seeking help, and we need to see it that men and women who would never hesitate to go see a doctor if they had a broken arm or came down with the flu, that they have that same attitude when it comes to their mental health.”

Meeting with the President of Chile: President Piñera of Chile met with President Obama on Tuesday for a bilateral meeting. The two leaders affirmed their commitment to economic growth, job creation, transparency, human rights, and the rule of law.

“Chile has been on a remarkable growth trajectory over several decades, and the progress that it’s made in terms of strengthening its economy, pulling people out of poverty, establishing a strong manufacturing and industrial and service base, its strong exports sector are all proof of the talents of the Chilean people but also Chile’s embrace of democracy and human rights and a market economy. And as a consequence, Chile has become not only a leader in the hemisphere but also a leader in the world.”

Ravens Visit the White House: On Wednesday, President Obama congratulated the 2013 Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens at the White House. The President spoke of the struggles the team faced throughout the season and how they recovered and brought the Lombardi Trophy back to Baltimore. He also praised the team’s commitment to giving back to their city.

“This year, Baltimore won’t just be seeing the Ravens on Sundays or Monday night or Thursday night…You’ll see players spending their Tuesdays – normally their only day off during the season – visiting hospitals and senior centers, and day after day, you’ll see a team that loves Baltimore as much as Baltimore loves the Ravens.”

During their visit, the Ravens also shared some of their favorite ways to stay healthy with Let’s Move!

National Security Team: On Wednesday, President Obama announced the departure of Tom Donilon, former National Security Advisor, and appointed Ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice as his replacement. To replace Ambassador Rice in New York, the President nominated Samantha Power.

ConnectEd: The President boarded Air Force One on Thursday and flew to North Carolina where he visited Mooresville Middle School. After touring the school, the President announced ConnectEd, a new initiative that will connect 99% of America’s students to high-speed internet within 5 years.

Following his announcement, the White House invited students from schools in Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Pennsylvania to join the National “Show and Tell” Google+ Hangout. Students and administrators from these schools demonstrated how they are using the internet and technology in their classrooms.

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Seth's Blog : America's Favorite Mushroom

America's Favorite Mushroom

That's what it said on the side of the semi roaring down the highway.

Does America even have a favorite mushroom? As in, "no, I don't want those mushrooms on my pizza... they're not my favorite brand."

Empty slogans, carefully constructed brags, assertions that don't matter—this is not effective marketing.

There's no question that people respond to safety and mass acceptance. The #1 seller often stays number one merely because it's already number one. But no, you don't need to add emotion when there is none, because to do so, you often have to sacrifice trust.

• Email to a friend •

vineri, 7 iunie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Spinning the Data on the Non-Recovery in Spain
Hollande's Popularity Sinks to 28%, a New Record Low
Jobs +175,000; Unemployment Rate 7.6%; Is the Obamacare Effect Played Out?

Spinning the Data on the Non-Recovery in Spain

Posted: 07 Jun 2013 05:17 PM PDT

On June 1, Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy Promised Encouraging Jobless Figures.

Employment Improvement Seasonal Mirage

The results are in and Eurointelligence reports Encouraging Figures Nothing But a Seasonal Mirage.

The Spanish government can hardly contain its glee over seasonal (un)employment improvements

Spain's Social Security administration released its May data on registered employment and unemployment, which PM Mariano Rajoy had anticipated over the weekend would be "encouraging". In comparison with April the headline figures were 98,000 fewer registered unemployed, and 135,000 more registered workers, reports El Economista.

However, stripped of seasonal effects the data are much less impressive. Corrected for seasonality, registered unemployment decreased by all of 265 people. On a year-on-year basis, registered unemployment grew by 177,000. The government has embarked on a campaign to paint the data as evidence of the start of the economic recovery and proof that the government's economic reforms, notably its easing of dismissal rules, are working to create jobs. To be fair, the reduction in registered unemployment in May is typically half the size observed this month.

Reasonably Valid Comparisons

Here are a couple of reasonably valid statistical comparisons.

This time period vs. the same time period in prior years
Continual seasonally adjusted number comparisons

Each method has its proponents.

What every economist on the planet would correctly object to making non-seasonally adjusted short-term comparisons, just like Rajoy did.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Posted: 07 Jun 2013 10:11 AM PDT

With rising unemployment, rising taxes, a slumping economy, and with Hollande's threats of pension reform (when the socialists in France still believe mightily in the free lunch), it should not be surprising to discover Hollande's popularity reaches new low.

From Eurointelligence ...

Francois Hollande's popularity reached a new low point in the CSA polls in June, with only 28% trusting him to confront efficiently today's problems against 68% who have no trust in him at all, Les Echos reports. His prime minister Jean-Marc Ayrault follows the same trend: 25% positive against 67% negative votes of confidence. While analysts blamed the continued rise in unemployment, the government's family benefit cuts and the upcoming pension reform for this. The circle around Hollande defends him saying it is the crisis to blame. Hollande lost support of his classical electorate, workers, employees, pensioners and civil servants.

The worst for Hollande and France is yet to come.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Jobs +175,000; Unemployment Rate 7.6%; Is the Obamacare Effect Played Out?

Posted: 07 Jun 2013 08:38 AM PDT

Initial Reaction

The establishment survey showed a gain of 175,000 a reasonably good but not spectacular print. The bright spot was involuntary part-time employment only rose by 26,000 so most of the jobs were (for a change) full-time jobs.

The civilian labor force rose by 420,000 for a change, enough to raise the unemployment rate 0.1 percentage points to 7.6%.

The Participation Rate rose 0.1 to 63.4%, just off the low of 63.3% dating back to 1979.

Obamacare Effect

Given there was not a huge jump in part-time employment this month, the bulk of the Obamacare effect of employers reducing hours from 32 to 25 (and hiring hundreds of thousands of new employees to make up the hours) may have mostly played out.

Nonetheless, expect lingering effects because any new business will be affected, as will businesses seeking to expand. See personal anecdotes at the end of this post for additional discussion.

May BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance

Payrolls +175,000 - Establishment Survey
US Employment +319,000 - Household Survey
US Unemployment +101,000 - Household Survey
Involuntary Part-Time Work +26,000 - Household Survey
Voluntary Part-Time Work -12,000 - Household Survey
Baseline Unemployment Rate +0.1 - Household Survey
U-6 unemployment -0.1 to 13.8% - Household Survey
The Civilian Labor Force +420,000 - Household Survey
Not in Labor Force -231,000 - Household Survey
Participation Rate +0.1 at 63.4 - Household Survey

Revisions

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for March was revised from +138,000 to +142,000, and the change for April was revised from +165,000 to +149,000. With these revisions, employment gains in March and April combined were 12,000 less than previously reported.

Recall that the unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data.

Quick Notes About the Unemployment Rate

In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,741,000
Over the course of the last year, the number of people employed rose by 1,596,000 (an average of 133,000 a month)
In the last year the number of unemployed fell from 12,695,000 to 11,760,000 (a drop of 935,000)
Long-Term unemployment (27 weeks and over) was 4,357,000 - a decline of 1,028,000 from a year ago
Percentage of long-term unemployment is 37.3%. Once someone loses a job it is still very difficult to find another.
7,904,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 8,116,000. There has been little improvement in a year. This is a volatile series.

May 2013 Jobs Report

Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) April 2013 Employment Report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 in May, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, food services and drinking places, and retail trade.

Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image

Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted

Month to Month Changes

click on chart for sharper image

Hours and Wages

Private average weekly hours were flat at 34.4 hours. Average hourly earnings of all private workers rose $0.01 to $23.89. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees was also up $0.01 to $20.08.

Real wages have been declining. Add in increases in state taxes and the average Joe has been hammered pretty badly. For 2013, one needs to factor in the increase in payroll taxes for Social Security.

For further discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution?

BLS Birth-Death Model Black Box

The BLS Birth/Death Model is an estimation by the BLS as to how many jobs the economy created that were not picked up in the payroll survey.

The Birth-Death numbers are not seasonally adjusted, while the reported headline number is. In the black box the BLS combines the two, coming up with a total.

The Birth Death number influences the overall totals, but the math is not as simple as it appears. Moreover, the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.

Do not add or subtract the Birth-Death numbers from the reported headline totals. It does not work that way.

Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing. Practice is clearly another as noted by numerous recent revisions.

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2012

Birth Death Model Adjustments For 2013

Birth-Death Notes

Once again: Do NOT subtract the Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid.

In general, analysts attribute much more to birth-death numbers than they should. Except at economic turns, BLS Birth/Death errors are reasonably small.

For a discussion of how little birth-death numbers affect actual monthly reporting, please see BLS Birth/Death Model Yet Again.

Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment

click on chart for sharper image

Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is.

Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation.

The official unemployment rate is 7.6%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.

U-6 is much higher at 13.8%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years.

Labor Force Factors

Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs
People retire because they cannot find jobs
People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job
People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job

Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force, the unemployment rate would be over 10%. In addition, there are 7,904,000 workers who are working part-time but want full-time work. A year ago there were 7,618,000. There has been no improvement in a year. This is a volatile series.

Grossly Distorted Statistics

Digging under the surface, much of the drop in the unemployment rate over the past two years is nothing but a statistical mirage coupled with a massive increase in part-time jobs starting in October 2012 as a result of Obamacare legislation.

Personal Anecdote

As a personal anecdote, I was in the Traverse City, Michigan area this past week, a very nice town with nice shops in the downtown area. I asked one of the clerks about the number of hours she was working and they were reduced from 32 to 25, same as with numerous other shops on the same street. She did not understand why. She does now.

I have asked waiters in many cities similar questions over the past few months and have received many similar answers.

Multiply this scene by hundreds or thousands of shops in thousands of towns and the reduction from 32 to 25 hours coupled with additional hiring to make up the needed hours played a significant role in distortion of normal hiring patterns and unemployment statistics.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

duminică, 9 iunie 2013

Get dad to create a wish list

Hi Hari

Seth's Blog : Worst one ever

Worst one ever

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 8 iunie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Weekly Address: Time to Pass Commonsense Immigration Reform

Seth's Blog : America's Favorite Mushroom

America's Favorite Mushroom

More Recent Articles

vineri, 7 iunie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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duminică, 9 iunie 2013

Hi Hari

More Recent Articles

sâmbătă, 8 iunie 2013

More Recent Articles

vineri, 7 iunie 2013

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