luni, 19 august 2013

Online Marketing Tips for Nonprofits

Online Marketing Tips for Nonprofits


Online Marketing Tips for Nonprofits

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 07:25 PM PDT

Posted by SteveOllington

What's this about?

Having worked in-house at one charity and provided some volunteer consulting to a couple of others, I decided it would be good to write about some useful ways that charities can increase their online exposure, without the need to drain too much of their already limited resources.

Many of the examples below are from my experiences working as the digital strategist for the British Humanist Association, where I learned that it can be very different from working at an agency, or in-house for a for-profit company.

LASA Charity Digital Survey 2012

How is online marketing for charities different?

There are advantages and disadvantages in digital marketing for charities. The advantages are the passion of the staff, the compassion of the audience, and the natural, powerful content that comes about through its work. The disadvantages are primarily the lack of resources and budget in comparison to the business world. What resources exist come from the generosity of people through donations and volunteering, and the willingness by staff to work twice the number of hours for half the pay.

So, here are a few tips that might help to offset the resource limits.

Google Grants for AdWords

As long as you have a registered charity number you can apply to Google Grants and receive $329 USD per day in free advertising with Google AdWords. Whilst this has to be in USD, it’s not confined to America only; UK charities (and others internationally) get the equivalent amount to spend on their ads.

Until recently, it was difficult to use up this budget, as there was a maximum per-click bid limit of $1.00. This meant you could only really go for keywords which didn’t have very much competition (and there’s a reason for that). However, in early 2013 this was increased to $2.00 per click, which makes a huge difference, allowing you to advertise with more highly searched keywords and bringing you more of the traffic you want.

How to set up Google Grants

Setting up Google Grants can take a few weeks because once you apply Google will need to assess your eligibility. The eligibility criteria and restrictions on use for Google Grants can be found here, but the main items are:

Restrictions on use

  • Only run keyword-targeted campaigns
  • Only appear on your country’s version of Google (this will differ depending on where your charity is based)
  • Only run text ads

Eligibility guidelines

  • Hold current and valid charity status
  • Acknowledge and agree to the application's required certifications regarding nondiscrimination and donation receipt and use.

If you have a registered charity number and are not yet using Google Grants, set up a Google AdWords account here (don’t complete the billing section upon setup), then apply to Google Grants here. Once you get going you’ll be offered the help you need from Google and you’re on your way to getting free advertising that can make a big difference to your online presence.

*Where I’ve taken so long about writing this, I have been pipped to the post (pun intended) by another Mozzer. They’ve got lots more detail on Google Grants in their post here.

Effective use of video

Videos can have a huge impact for charities because they offer a chance to show viewers the problems they’re trying to combat, allowing them to spread awareness about the charity and/or individual campaigns whilst triggering an emotional response that other media types might not.

Video doesn’t have to be expensive. There are plenty of volunteers out there at both the amateur and the professional level who will help out (there’s more on recruiting volunteers later), and for the video content there are student actors to act, staff members to interview, or people who have been affected by issues you’re campaigning on that are happy to talk about those issues.

If your charity is environment- or wildlife-based, contact Environment Films to have a video created. They’re a non-profit organisation too, and if you’re lucky you might even end up with Distilled’s Margarita Iosif working on your video!

Have a look at these clips worked on by a team including Margarita:

Whips Hurt. Ban Them. â€" A video for Animal Aid. This is a campaign-based video about horsewhipping (45 seconds).

The Soi Dog Foundation â€" A trailer for the Soi Dog Foundation. This is a video about the charity itself (4 minutes, 19 seconds).

In just a few minutes, the clips above are able to communicate their message in a way that people are often more willing to engage with than with plain text, and the short duration means they’re more likely to be both watched and shared online.

There are lots of different types of videos that your charity could consider, including trailers, animations, discussions, interviews, and debates. The most important thing in the video is the message.

Video marketing

It’s important to determine the goals for your video before you market it (or even create it). Is the primary goal to spread awareness, or to encourage donations? The goals of the video will make a difference in how you should market it, such as on which platform (because it’s not always YouTube that you should go for).

Phil Nottingham, whom I have the honour to sit opposite, is the video marketing specialist, and if you’re going to make a video, you HAVE to watch this video of Phil explaining how to do it right. Also, check out the Distilled Video Marketing Guide.

Video outreach

Videos, just like any other content, should be promoted through outreach. Outreach in its simplest form is contacting others in the relevant field with the hope they will publish, share, or promote something for you (there’s more on this later).

Below are two videos that were released by the BHA.

Humanism Intro (1 of 2)Humanism Intro (2 of 2)

Video One was published on July 30, 2012, and Video Two was published on December 3, 2012. So there is more than four months between them, but look at the difference in the number of views. By the time the first video reached 8-9 months in (as the second has now) it had a lot more than 8,575 views. In fact, it had that within the first couple of weeks. Why is that? Both videos feature the same people, and are on the same subject appealing to the same audiences. It’s because the first video had a lot more outreach done for it. At the time the second video was released, there was a lot else happening with a new site going live, etc. As a result, not as much outreach was done as with the first video, where many people were contacted early and offered the story on the day of the release so it was still new news for all. Lots of people were emailed and asked if they could tweet or blog about it, and they did. Outreach is an important component of online marketing, and it can mean the difference between success or failure of a marketing campaign.

YouTube Nonprofit Program

If you have videos, you likely have at least some of them on YouTube (any/all videos for which the primary goal is lots of views). But do you know about the free benefits you can have on your channel if you’re a charity?

If you sign up to YouTube’s Nonprofit program, you will have access to a number of exclusive features, and features you would normally have to pay for.

Donation button

There is the option of a Donation button on your channel page, which could increase your donations if you get many visitors to your channel. You’ll need to sign up to Google Wallet for this, if you don’t already have an account.

PETA YouTube Channel

Call-to-action overlay

Any videos uploaded to YouTube can have annotations applied, but with the Nonprofit Program you can have a call-to-action overlay containing a link, which is usually something you’d have to pay for. The overlay shows up at the bottom of the video screen and encourages people to take an action such as following a link or sharing.

Live streaming

If your charity stages events, such as protest rallies, talks, or anything else, you can live stream the event directly to your YouTube channel for all those supporters who couldn’t attend. The most important thing to remember about doing this, is that you’ll need to publicize that people can watch this live first; there’s no point in live streaming to no audience. When you promote your event, be sure to let everyone know that if they can’t make it, they can watch live, providing the date, times (including for different time zones), and a link to the channel.

For details on how to set up live streaming, see this video from YouTube.

Community forum

The Nonprofit Program supplies access to a Community Forum which can be helpful in terms of support. However, most of this support will tend to come from other users (many of whom are very helpful and will do their best to solve your problems) rather than actual Google staff.

Donating on Facebook

If you have a significant Facebook audience, or are working towards one, it’s worth considering adding a way for people to donate through Facebook. If you add a story to Facebook that becomes well shared and brings more people to your page, then some of those people may want to help out in any way they can.

There are a number of solutions for taking Facebook donations. There is an app by JustGiving which can appear in the Facebook navigation, as shown below on the Dogs Trust Facebook page.

Dogs Trust Facebook Page

You will need a JustGiving account to set this up, but it’s relatively simple to do. You can find out more about it in these slides.

Another option is DonateApp. This solution takes a small commission, but if it’s donations that would not have been received otherwise, then it’s still a net gain.

DonateApp reports that:

  • A 2012 study of 3,500 nonprofits found about half of them (46%) have raised funds on Facebook.
  • The most popular way to raise funds was to solicit Facebook supporters for individual donations.
  • The average value of a Facebook donor was found to be $214.81 over 12 months.

Advertising on Facebook

Sadly, there is no Facebook equivalent to Google Grants, so there is no free advertising for charities (or even discounted), but due to the way audiences can be targeted by their interests it’s worth looking at as an option.

Whatever your charity’s causes are, you’re likely to find plenty of people on Facebook who have declared those causes in their interests, and you can target just those people with your ads. Of course this applies to businesses, too, but the difference is in the number people who tend to join relevant groups or state relevant interests. There are plenty of ‘likes’ for brands, and some products, but generally there’s going to be a lot more people who have interest in causes such as eco-issues than there are for kitchen appliance parts, and you can take advantage of this. There are plenty of other targeting options too, including location, age, gender, and more.

You can put just a small amount of budget into a Facebook ad campaign to run a test and see how it goes, but don’t forget to track the results in your analytics so you know if it’s working or not!

You can find out more about and sign up for Facebook advertising here.

Media Trust (and Community Newswire)

For UK charities, Media Trust is an organisation that provides a variety of support for promoting charities, from marketing and PR classes to information sharing and new initiatives. As far as I can tell, the closest match to this in the US would be Charities.org. However, I can only really talk about Media Trust as I don’t have any experience with other similar organisations.

One thing which your charity may find particularly useful from Media Trust is The Community Newswire. You can submit press releases here that will have increased opportunities to get picked up by news outlets. Media Trust has good relationships with the Press Association and journalists who report in the charity sector. Press releases that go through their system will be monitored by some journalists who know that Media Trust is a credible source and are therefore more likely to run with something that comes through them.

Do have a look at what Media Trust has to offer as a whole (if you haven’t already), but also make sure you submit your press releases (ensuring they’re well written, contain at least one image, and are about something interesting) to the Community Newswire.

GrowYourCharityOnline.com

At the start of this year I attended an opening event for an initiative by Google and the Media Trust. There were lots of charities there, and some Google staff to answer questions. It was the launch of a new website called GrowYourCharityOnline.com. Here you can find information and action steps on the Google products discussed in this post, including Google Grants and the YouTube Nonprofit Program, as well as advice on using Google Plus to promote your campaigns and causes.

Have a look at the website, it’s got some useful tips and will help you organise your efforts with promotion through the Google products.

Text to donate

Most charities will likely already know about donations via text. As I learned, this is not always the best option, as it depends entirely on your channels of promotion. If you’re campaigning mainly online through your website and social media, then people generally seem to prefer following links to donate with something like JustGiving or Razoo. Text-based donations were very few when I tried this. However, if you’re also going to be promoting offline then it’s definitely worth it, as it gives people a way to donate if they don’t have a link to follow. This can be on any literature you’re handing out, or in press releases for local print newspapers, on billboards, presentation slides, T-Shirts and other merchandise, or speaking to people on the street.

This is relatively easy to set up. See JustTextGiving to do so; then all people need to do is text a campaign code and an amount to a particular number.

Quiz apps

This one went fantastically: Everyone loves a quiz, right? At least if it’s a nice short quiz that tells you something about yourself, anyway.

At the end of January 2013, the British Humanist Association launched the simple quiz "Are You a Humanist?"

Since then, it’s been taken over 70,000 times, and continues to be taken a few thousand times per month. This is important because many of the people who are taking the quiz had never heard of humanism before, but they have now. That was the quiz's objective from the start â€" to spread awareness to a new audience â€" which it continues to do.

The quiz has been taken so many times largely because it offers to share the results at the end:

Are You A Humanist? Quiz App

Not everyone shares their results. Many people don’t (and won’t) but there were and are still enough to keep it spreading, and therefore to generate new interest.

Some of the tweets made by people after having taken the quiz indicated their new realisation of humanism as a concept, and sometimes even their intention to become a member of the organisation.

The percentage scores are actually irrelevant in this quiz, and weren’t originally going to be included. However, people like scores. Scores make such things more shareable, and since the point in the quiz was to spread awareness of humanism with a bit of fun, scores worked best.

Your charity should think about doing something like this. Once you come up with the right quiz, meaning something that gives people results they’ll be happy to share, you can find a volunteer developer to help you build it into an app (there’s more about volunteers later).

Giving away content for social shares

Every online marketer looks for existing resources to utilise or recycle. One of the first things you’ll do if you start a new in-house position is poke around in archives both online and offline â€" in storage cupboards for forgotten leaflets or on the old network drive for forgotten PDFs. Usually, somewhere, there’s some great content lurking about that people will like and share.

On to my example â€" The charity I worked for gave away hard copies of an interesting book at events, and also to new members. The aim of the book wasn't about profit, it was about awareness and education, so giving the books away suited just fine. Of course there were limits as to how many could be given away, because printing and binding the book cost money (and so did sending it), and then there were only so many event attendees and new members to whom the book could be given away.

However, it turned out we had it in PDF format, too. So, we set it free as a PDF eBook and offered it via the Pay With a Tweet system. Using Pay With a Tweet meant the only thing people had to do was tweet (or share on Facebook) about the book, and they got a free copy to download. A win-win situation. One click of a button and the user gets a free, interesting eBook, and the charity gets to see more of its books being read. It’s a great book actually, and chances are that at least some of the people who read it will agree with its philosophy enough that they use the included membership form to join the charity.

There’s been over 7,700 downloads since it was launched in October 2012, and hopefully there will be many more downloads in the future, too.

If you want to see how it works by downloading a copy and paying with a tweet, grab it from here: Humanism: A Short Course.

Getting into Google News

Whether or not you currently release news, you should. If you want publicity for your charity and its work, it’s important to get yourself in front of other news sources, and Google News is a great way to do that.

Here are some benefits to being in Google News:

  • It can provide high search engine rankings, potentially bringing your site more visitors (the right visitors, too, if they’re arriving because they clicked on your news result after searching something relevant).
  • It can mean your content gets republished elsewhere. Other publishers use Google News to draw inspiration on what to write about. This could be anything from bloggers with a small but targeted audience to journalists from national media outlets. Lots of news sources monitor Google News to see recent developments, and often they will pick up stories to run with themselves.
  • It may gain you some backlinks to your website (which can help your website with its traffic, and its search rankings overall, especially if the links are coming from a large and popular news site).

Getting into Google News is easier said than done, as Google has strict guidelines as to what passes as acceptable news and it can take a while to get your news pieces right. When submitting your news to Google to appear in Google News, you will provide the URL for the news section of your site, and then you will likely need to wait up to several weeks before being accepted or rejected.

Reasons for rejection may include format, the type of news, or many other issues including being "overly self-promotional." Now, the overly self-promotional issue is a problem for a lot of charities since they are by their nature releasing news about campaigns and causes they are undertaking themselves. For example, if a charity were to challenge an unjust law at the ECHR then the news is that the charity is fighting the government over a policy at court, for the charity to then exclude itself from that news would be difficult.

One way of dealing with this is to divide your news through categorisation or tagging. On your website's news section, you can tag or categorise less "promotional" articles to appear under a particular URL away from the rest, then submit only this URL to Google.

Your news releases may well be made up of your general press releases. From my understanding, this won’t work with Google News submissions, and press releases will need to be rewritten as news items in order to get in.

Content and sharing

There can obviously be a lot of impact from having celebrities tweet about your campaigns and charity work, and some charities are very fortunate in having celebrity support for their causes, but of course there are limits to how much you can ask for help from high-profile individuals (especially as many of these people are inundated with requests from charities every day).

The right content on the right subject can still get plenty of traction on Twitter, Facebook, and elsewhere without the need for celebrities (although it helps, of course). Charities are in a great position when it comes to getting social shares because their content is often naturally interesting â€" maybe controversial in some way â€" and likely to trigger some kind of emotion in people (whether it makes them happy, sad, or angry, if it triggers an emotion then people will want to show it to others). However, you still have to do what businesses do, and think about how you’re going to present this content in the first place.

Due to the nature of charity work, a lot of the content to share will come naturally, through stories of campaign successes or losses. There’s bound to be other stuff you can share, too. The trick here is to keep an eye on what others are sharing and how successful their content is on social media platforms. This would be a large and complex task if done manually, but there is a tool for it, and it’s free! Yousaf Sekander of RocketMill created a tool called Social Crawlytics which allows you to enter a web address, and provides you with information on content from the website such as how much it has been shared and on what platforms. Doing this will show you examples of what works, and what doesn't, so you can adapt similar content strategies for yourself!

Also, have a look at the 2012 Nonprofit Social Network Benchmark Report, which offers up tactics that have proven successful for other charities along with data about which channels have been most effective for various types of fundraising and campaigning.

Tracking your success with Google Analytics

In order to know what’s working and what isn’t, you need to track your campaigns. I’ll assume you already have some analytics software such as Google Analytics installed on your website. You can see a lot with that, but you can see and organise far more by using the Google Analytics URL Builder.

How to use the URL Builder is beyond the scope of this article, but here are a couple of posts from Chris Gilchrist of HitReach if you’d like to learn more:

Your authority staff as a marketing asset

Someone in your charity is an authority on the issues you’re campaigning for. You need to use that. It’s important that they’re getting out there in front of people on every possible occasion.

Referring back to the charity I worked for, the CEO Andrew Copson was very good at this. He seemingly worked 168 hours per week, what with running the organisation and travelling around the country (the world even) to give talks and feature in debates. When it comes to the charity and its causes, he is an authority. That means when secular issues come up in the news, journalists want to hear from him. For that reason, he’s often quoted in newspapers, interviewed on TV and radio, and asked onto panel shows to discuss current issues. This exposure of course means more people get to hear him, and if they agree with him (he’s so very reasonable it’s hard not to), it brings more awareness to the charity.

Rand Fishkin gave a talk on using your CEO to spread awareness at the 2013 LinkLove Conference. Normally you’d have to buy this video, which isn’t actually even available to buy yet, but since you’re reading this article, you get to access the video right now, and for free (It’s a must-watch!). Just follow the steps below.

Rand Fishkin LinkLove 2012

  1. Go to How to Transform Your CEO into a Link Building, Social Sharing Machine
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  3. If you have an account, sign in. If you don’t have an account, create one (it’ll only take a minute).
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  5. Watch the video and have a notepad to hand, there’s some great tips in there!

Note: If you enjoyed the video, Distilled is hosting another conference in SearchLove San Diego three weeks from today! This will be our first time heading West, and we'd love for you to be there. Early bird pricing on tickets ends soon, and the kind folks at Moz have even lined up a discount for your ticket over on the Pro Perks page.

Finally, make sure you film every time your CEO (or whoever they might be) talks at any event!

Look at what happened with Philip Wollen. He gave an impassioned speech which went viral on YouTube (there are many videos of the whole debate but here’s one with just the speech to save you time). Lots of people became a fan of his after seeing that, and it brought a lot of attention to The Kindness Trust and all of the charities he supports through it.

Getting volunteers to help with your online marketing

Many of the recommendations in this article are relatively inexpensive, but some funding may still be needed to hire copywriters, developers, designers, a video agency, etc. You don’t have to spend a fortune for this though â€" not if you get volunteers.

If your charity has followers, fans, connections, and whatever else on its social platforms, use them to recruit volunteers. You may well be doing this already, but remember there’s a difference this time: The types of professions you’re looking for in this case are technology based, meaning there’s a greater chance of them being accessible online than with a lot of other professions.

Tweet for help, and there’s a good chance it’ll get retweeted. The same with Facebook; people may not be able to help with certain tasks but they’ll often tag others into a response who they think might be interested, such as their friend who makes apps and is a keen environmentalist. Many tech savvy professionals will use software to monitor social media channels and alert them when there are mentions offering work. A tweet asking for a copywriter recommendation will often result in copywriters tweeting back because they’re watching any tweets that have that keyword of ‘copywriter’ in it.

There are also websites that may be useful. Reach exists to hook up volunteers from different professions with charities in need of specialist help. Get yourself listed on there and provide a description of what you need, and someone may well get in contact with the expertise you’re looking for. Reach is a UK organisation, so if you’re in America, try CatchaFire instead. I’m not sure about other locations but I’m guessing there will be similar organisations in other countries.

Build a contacts list, and do outreach

Regular Moz.com readers and those in the industry know this well, but if you’re reading this as someone who is volunteering or working at a charity and don’t have much experience in online marketing, then this is important for you.

Remember the two videos above, where one had a lot more views than the other? If you have a great piece of content, whether it’s a video, an app, an eBook, or anything else, tell people about it! Too often there are great pieces of content that get uploaded somewhere on the web, tweeted or shared by a couple of people, and then left without any real promotion (many businesses are guilty of this too).

Build your list of contacts. Find relevant blogs, forums, Facebook groups, Twitter accounts, niche news sites, or anything with an online community, and send them a polite message about your content. If you do it right and your content is related to the type of thing they usually post or share, then there’s a good chance they will publish or share your content, too.

Build your outreach list larger and larger over time, and the contents of the list will often help to get the ball rolling for many of your campaigns. Look after it, don’t abuse it, and keep it secure (it’s a contact list and it contains people's data, so just be careful with it).

Got any tips to add? Let me know in the comments... :)


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Seth's Blog : "Do you have three minutes?" The conservation of mental bandwidth

 

"Do you have three minutes?" The conservation of mental bandwidth

It's not the three minutes it will take to do this favor for you. Everyone has three minutes.

And it's not even the noise and the wear and tear of the mental clutch as we shift from one task to another.

For me, and for many people, it's the leakage of mental bandwidth.

Fear is the enemy of creativity and innovation and of starting things. The resistance hates those things—they are risky, they might not work, so the resistance pushes us not to do them.

On the other hand, it loves the notion of to-do lists and favors and multi-tasking and yes, continual partial attention, because those are perfect hiding places, perfect places to avoid the scary work but still be able to point to a day's work, well done.

But if you have nothing else due, nothing else to do, no other measurable output but that thing you've promised yourself, if all your mental bandwidth is focused on this one and this only, then yep, you can bet that you will get more brave.

Before internet connectivity poured from the sky, I was able to get on a train, plug in my Mac and have nothing to do for four hours but write. And so I wrote. I once bought a round trip ticket to nowhere just to eliminate every possible alternative... pure, unadulterated mental bandwidth.

Plenty of places to run, plenty of places to hide. None of them are as important as shipping your best work today.

       

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duminică, 18 august 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Official Denials Run Rampant in India; "No Question" of Economic Crisis; Rupee Plunges to Record Low; Gold Coin Imports Banned

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 09:59 PM PDT

When news came last week that India tightened capital controls and banned gold imports, I pinged Pater Tenebrarum at Acting Man with a pair of comments.

  1. Looks like India is about ready to blow up
  2. Looks good for gold

He agreed on both counts.

"No Question" of Economic Crisis

On Saturday came an "official denial" in an amusing way. Please consider "No Question" of India Economic Crisis.
There is "no question" of India going back to an economic crisis experienced in 1991, as its rupee currency is now linked to the market and foreign exchange reserves are adequate, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said on Saturday.

"There is no question of going back to 1991," Singh said in a Press Trust of India report published by the Economic Times newspaper on its website, making reference to a balance of payments crisis the country suffered that year.

"At that time foreign exchange in India was a fixed rate. Now it is linked to market. We only correct the volatility of the rupee."

The news agency report said Singh acknowledged India's ballooning current account deficit, which he blamed on large imports of gold as a contributing factor.

"We seem to be investing a lot in unproductive assets," Singh said.

India is trying to curb its citizens' apparently insatiable demand for gold, through measures such as hiking import duties, banning the import of coins and medallions and making domestic buyers pay cash.

The government wants to hold bullion imports this year to "well below" last year's figure of 845 metric tons.
Complete Agreement

I agree there is "No Question" of Economic Crisis. When a country implements capital controls and bans gold imports, the country is clearly in a state of economic crisis, no question about it.

There is one difference between 1991 and now, because the rupee is no longer pegged. This means that instead of attempting to defend a rate with interest rates hikes or gold outflows, India "only" has to "correct the volatility of the rupee".

Only? That's all? So why doesn't India do it?

Don't Worry - Capital Controls are Not Capital Controls

Last Wednesday the Reserve Bank of India denied capital controls were capital controls with promises stable policy environment.
The finance ministry has said it will take all measures to provide a stable policy environment to stem the volatility in rupee and clarified that measures announced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday should not be seen as capital controls.

"There is no question of us putting any restriction on outflows... There is no control of outflows of dividends, profits, royalties, or on any kind of commercial outflows which happen in the normal course...," Department of Economic Affairs Secretary Arvind Mayaram told reporters on Friday.
Official Denials Run Rampant in India

The denial is rather amusing given "The RBI announced lowering of the limit on outward remittances by resident Indians to 75,000 dollars from 200,000 dollars a year and reduced the overseas investment limit for domestic companies under the automatic route to 100% of net worth from 400% of net worth earlier."

Here is another humorous statement ""Gold, silver, platinum are what we believe as non-essentials. We have put curbs on that. I don't think we need any more curbs," he said. Another finance ministry official said the measures taken by the RBI cannot be termed as capital controls as they were aimed at ensuring prudent borrowings by corporates."

Don't Worry, It's Not Capital Controls ...

  • If the measures are aimed at "prudent borrowing" (as determined by the state of course)
  • If the restrictions limit outward remittances on individuals to $75,000 from $200,000
  • If the restrictions the overseas investment limit for corporations
  • If it pertains to gold, silver, and platinum

Anything else that's not capital controls? Not yet, but I expect more "non-capital controls" to be implemented next week.

Food Inflation

On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal reported India Inflation Accelerates in July.
India's inflation moved out of the central bank's comfort zone in July, as food prices rose and a weak local currency increased the cost of imports.

The wholesale price index, India's main inflation gauge, rose 5.79% from a year earlier, compared with 4.86% in June and at its fastest pace since February, data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry showed Wednesday. That exceeded the median estimate of 5.00% in a poll of 13 economists. According to the Reserve Bank of India, inflation above 5.00% hurts the economy's growth prospects.

The latest data will increase the pressure on the central bank which is caught between rising prices and a slowing economy, and pose policy challenges to Raghuram Rajan, who takes over as central bank governor in early September. Though the wholesale inflation has eased from around 10% a couple of years ago, inflation at the retail level is still near double digits.

Food prices increased 11.91% from a year earlier in the past month, compared with 9.74% in June. Vegetable prices rose a staggering 46.59% in July, after a 16.47% increase in June.
Onion Prices Up 144%

Onions, a primary staple in the India diet are up a mere 144% according to Live Mint.
The latest wholesale price index (WPI) numbers released on Wednesday show that onion prices rose 144% in July over the year-ago period, after a similar increase in the previous month. Since January, onion price levels have been nearly double what they were a year ago.

The persistent increase seems to be finally ringing alarm bells, with state governments across the country fighting to bring down prices. Higher onion prices have not only added to high food price inflation, but also rattled governments over the years, for example contributing to the defeat of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in state elections in Delhi in 1998. Hence the alarm!
Enormous Property Bubble

I have commented several times on India's property bubble. For example, please consider

May 10, 2013: Huge Bubble in India Home Prices Ready to Burst

August 1, 2013: India Housing Bubble Still Expanding

Explaining the bubble is easy enough. Inflation is rampant and investors are willing to chase assets rather than hold on to declining Rupees.

Rupee Hits Record Low of 62/Dollar

Reuters reports Rupee hits record low of 62/dollar, foreign investors baulk.
Finance minister Chidambaram tried to talk up the rupee on Friday after it plumbed another record low on concerns the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) latest measures to defend the currency could be a step towards outright capital controls.

Traders said the RBI was forced to step in to prop up the rupee as measures from the central bank late on Wednesday restricting how much Indian citizens and companies can invest abroad were seen as yet another roll of the dice that is undermining investor confidence.

Concerns that policymakers were losing control over the currency spread to the stock market, which dropped 4 percent, its biggest one-day decline in nearly two years.

Indian policymakers have cobbled together a slew of steps over the past month in a bid to halt the rupee's slide, including the central bank's extraordinary steps on July 15 to drain cash from the system and raise short-term interest rates in an economy already growing at a decade low.

Yet none of the steps or the rhetoric so far have convinced investors that India can attract overseas investments, which is seen as essential in narrowing a record high current account deficit that is the biggest source of the rupee weakness.
Rupee Plunges 40% in Two Years



The above chart explains the nature of the crisis: Rampant credit and monetary growth that has fueled inflation, capital flight, and a desire to hold gold.

Currency Stress Hits India

On June 24, I wrote Currency Stress Hits India: Rupee Near Record Low, Emerging Nations Face Capital Flight; Global Currency Crisis Awaits. Here is the pertinent snip.
Defending the Rupee

Just like Brazil defending the real,  India now feels compelled to defend the rupee. Good luck with that idea if capital flight takes off in a major way (and I suspect it will).

India does have currency reserves, but those can vanish in a hurry if things get out of hand. And if India does use currency reserves to defend the rupee, I rather doubt the India bond markets will take all that kindly to it.

Thus defending the rupee against further declines is easier said than done if the markets  have indeed soured on the country, and that is precisely how it looks now.

Global Currency Crisis Awaits

A global currency crisis awaits. I do not know what country triggers first. It could easily be Japan, China, Brazil, India, Australia, Canada, the UK, or any of many countries in the eurozone (as well as numerous countries not on anyone's radar).

This sad state of affairs is courtesy of mad central bank monetary policies coupled with inane can-kicking fiscal policies everywhere you look.
Just Your Imagination

But hey, don't worry. There is "No Question" of economic crisis, not in India, nor anywhere else. It's all a figment of your imagination. So move along, and whatever you do, don't buy gold.

To help prevent its citizens from doing such a foolish thing, India banned gold coin imports.

What country is next to ban gold imports?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

3D-Printing Spare Human Parts; Ears and Jaws Already, Livers Coming Up ; Need an Organ? Just Print It

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 06:58 PM PDT

Science marches on at a blistering pace. The star-trek "replicator" that seemed preposterously far-fetched is now here.

For example: Accidentally cut your ear off? Just 3D print a new one


This week, researchers at Hangzhou Dianzi University in China unveiled their Regenovo 3D printer. Unlike more familiar 3D printers, which work with plastic or metal dust, Regenovo prints living tissue – such as these little ears.

The Hangzhou team aren't the only ones 3D-printing spare parts for people. Earlier this year, a team at Cornell University in Ithaca, New York, also demonstrated an ear printer, and Organovo in San Diego, California, are on the way to building fresh human livers

3D Printer Provides Woman with a Brand New Jaw

Last year, New Scientist reported 3D Printer Provides Woman with a Brand New Jaw
An 83-year-old Belgian woman is able to chew, speak and breathe normally again after a machine printed her a new jawbone. Made from a fine titanium powder sculpted by a precision laser beam, her replacement jaw has proven as functional as her own used to be before a potent infection, called osteomyelitis, all but destroyed it.

The medics behind the feat say it is a first. "This is a world premiere, the first time a patient‐specific implant has replaced the entire lower jaw," says Jules Poukens, the researcher who led the operation at Biomed, the biomedical research department of the University of Hasselt, in Belgium. "It's a cautious, but firm step."

In this operation, a 3D printed titanium scaffold was steeped in stem cells and allowed to grow biocompatible tissue inside the abdomen of the recipient. Then, in 2009, researchers reported successfully printing copies of whole thumb bones - opening the way for the replacement of smashed digits using information from MRI scans.

By using an MRI scan of their patient's ailing jawbone to get the shape right, they fed it to a laser sintering 3D printer which fused tiny titanium particles layer by layer until the shape of her jawbone was recreated. It was then coated in a biocompatible ceramic layer. No detail was spared: it even had dimples and cavities that promoted muscle attachment, and sleeves that allowed mandibular nerves to pass through - plus support structures for dental implants the patient might need in future.

The team were astonished at the success of the four-hour jaw implant operation, which took place in June 2011 but which has only just been revealed.
Need an Organ? Just Print It

Please consider Scientists 3-D Print With Human Embryonic Stem Cells
3-D printers can produce gun parts, aircraft wings, food and a lot more, but this new 3-D printed product may be the craziest thing yet: human embryonic stem cells.

Using stem cells as the "ink" in a 3-D printer, researchers in Scotland hope to eventually build 3-D printed organs and tissues. A team at Heriot-Watt University used a specially designed valve-based technique to deposit whole, live cells onto a surface in a specific pattern.



The cells were floating in a "bio-ink," to use the terminology of the researchers who developed this technique. They were able to squeeze out tiny droplets, containing five cells or fewer per droplet, in a variety of shapes and sizes. To produce clumps of cells, the team printed out cells first and then overlaid those with cell-free bio-ink, resulting in larger droplets or spheroids of cells. The cells would group together inside these spheroids. Spheroid size is key, because stem cells need certain conditions to work properly. This is why very precisely controlled 3-D printing could be so valuable for stem cell research.

After being squeezed out of a thin valve, the cells were still alive and viable, and able to transform into any other cell in the body, the researchers say. It's the first time anyone has printed human embyronic stem cells, said lead researcher Will Wenmiao Shu, a professor at Heriot-Watt.
The words fascinating and remarkable do not remotely describe this technology. Unbelievable comes close, yet  here we are. I cannot imagine advancements in the next 20 years let alone 100 years from now.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Egyptian Stocks Sink, CDS Show Egypt in Top-10 Riskiest Countries; EU Ponders Suspending Aid; McCain, Rand Paul Issue Statement; Civil War?

Posted: 18 Aug 2013 11:18 AM PDT

The violence in Egypt following the military overthrow of former president Mohamed Morsi continues to escalate. Over 800 are dead according to official reports, thousands dead according to other reports.

The stock market, bond market and credit markets have all responded. Credit Default Swaps (CDS) soared to 810, placing Egypt in the top-10 of countries likely to default on sovereign bonds.

Please consider Egyptian Stocks Fall Most Since June as Violence Sparks Protests
Egyptian shares fell the most in two months as Islamists called for more protests following a government crackdown that has left at least 800 people dead. Borrowing costs rose for the first time in seven weeks at an auction today.

The benchmark EGX 30 Index slumped 3.9 percent, the most since June 12, to 5,334.55 at the 1:30 p.m. close in Cairo.

Stocks slid as concerns of an escalation of violence grew following calls by supporters of former Islamist President Mohamed Mursi to continue demonstrations demanding his reinstatement. At least 173 people died in weekend clashes that followed the violent breakup of pro-Mursi protest camps on Aug. 14. The stock market closed Aug. 15 in the first unscheduled shutdown since January 2011, when it suspended trading for almost two months.

Yields Rise

Egypt sold 5.5 billion pounds at an auction of treasury bills today, with the yield on three-month notes rising 18 basis points from last week to 11.44 percent, according to central bank data on Bloomberg. The yield on nine-month bills advanced three basis points to 12.41 percent. Yields on both maturities had plunged 311 and 260 basis points, respectively, since the military deposed Mursi July 3. A 6.5 billion-pound auction, canceled Aug. 15 amid the unrest, will be held tomorrow, according to central bank data on Bloomberg.

Five-year credit default swaps, contracts which insure the country's debt against default, climbed to 810 basis points, according to CMA data, ranking Egypt among the 10-riskiest credits in the world.
EU Considers Suspension of €5bn in Aid

The Financial Times reports EU to consider suspension of €5bn in Aid to Egypt
Brussels said it will "urgently review" relations with Egypt following an escalation in violence over the past week that has left EU leaders increasingly worried about the future of peace and stability in the Arab world.

EU officials said that the review was likely to recommend a suspension of various forms of aid and loans in total worth €5bn, which had been earmarked to help Egypt in its transition towards democracy following the popular revolution that ended the military regime of Hosni Mubarak two years ago. Suspension would require the backing of EU member states.

The EU together with its 28 member states in November promised Egypt a total of €5bn in grants and loans for a series of initiatives and projects on the condition that democratic reforms were implemented. There was no timescale for disbursement of the funds.

EU officials said that it was too early to identify exactly which parts of the EU-Egypt relationship would be affected by the review but they added that the blocking of funds was "very much on the table".
McCain, Lindsey Graham Finally Stand with Rand on Egypt Aid

In the US, Breitbart reports McCain, Lindsey Graham Finally Stand with Rand on Egypt Aid
Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) have finally come around to joining Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) in believing that the U.S. should cut off aid to Egypt amid the deteriorating conditions in that country.

In a joint Friday afternoon statement, McCain and Graham called for the $1.5 billion of annual U.S. aid to Egypt to be cut off until conditions improve there.

"The massacre of civilians this week in Egypt has brought our longstanding relationship with that country to a fork in the road," McCain and Graham said. "The interim civilian government and security forces – backed up, unfortunately, by the military – are taking Egypt down a dark path, one that the United States cannot and should not travel with them."

Both Graham and McCain opposed an amendment Paul offered in late July that would have redirected the $1.5 billion per year the U.S. spends on Egypt to help rebuilding the interior of the United States. "All I can see is the billions of American tax dollars that he chooses to send overseas," Paul said on the Senate floor during that battle, according to Politico. "The president sends billions of dollars to Egypt in the form of advanced fighter planes and tanks while Detroit crumbles.

"In our hour of need in our country, why are you sending money to people that hate us?" Paul added.

When McCain opposed Paul's amendment cutting off aid to Egypt, he argued that such a move would hurt Israel. "This is a question of whether the senator from Kentucky knows what's better for Israel, or if Israel knows what's better for Israel," McCain said.

Graham made the same argument. "I have a letter here from AIPAC [American Israel Public Affairs Committee] I asked them to comment," Graham said, according to Foreign Policy magazine. Graham then cited the AIPAC letter: "We do not support cutting off all assistance to Egypt at this time."
Clearly Rand Paul had this correct from the start.

Civil War Possibilities

Pater Tenebrarun at the Acting Man blog comments on the chaos, asking Could a Civil War Break Out?
As most of our readers know, we have followed the events in Egypt off and on ever since the so-called 'Arab Spring' led to the deposition of former strongman Hosni Mubarak.

Here is a list of the most recent articles, which have followed the brief stint of Mohammed Morsi as president.


Initially we pointed out that the 'new boss was the same as the old one'. He had simply adopted the state's apparatus of coercion for his own purposes. We then pointed out that he had failed in the most important task of his presidency: namely that of improving the economy. It is very difficult to do so, given the vested interests in Egypt. It is for instance estimated, that the army controls roughly 40% of the economy. Thus any reform attempt that may result in reducing the army's influence on economic life is probably doomed from the outset. Our friend Raj reports regularly from Egypt, and he too stated very early on that unless Morsi managed to right the economy, he was going to be doomed.

Let us not forget, it was probably mainly a surge in food prices that ultimately led to the downfall of Mubarak. What Egypt needs more urgently than anything else is free market capitalism.

Following the bloody confrontation between the army and the supporters of Mohammed Morsi – who, it must be pointed out once again, won the election fair and square and was deposed in a coup – one must fear that the chaos will worsen and could eventually morph into a civil war type situation. In  that case, we would expect the military to install a junta and attempt to rule the country under emergency regulations.

In the 'Egyptian street' people are convinced that Morsi was only deposed after the US secretly gave its placet to the coup, and very likely this interpretation is correct. After all, the Egyptian military relies heavily on US aid, therefore it probably wouldn't take such a step without first getting the nod from the puppet masters holding the purse strings.

Mubarak's reign has shown that it is in principle possible to oppress the population of Egypt for a long time. The army is no doubt counting on its superior firepower to enable it to do the same thing again. It has already arrested the most important leaders of the Brotherhood, thereby 'decapitating' its main enemy.

The main problem is actually not that the Brotherhood insists on the return of the legitimately elected president Morsi, the main problem is that many people have nothing left to lose due to the miserable economic situation. Moreover, like many other Arab states, Egypt's demographics are such that there is a very large contingent of young people. Young people are by nature less likely to shirk confrontation, they are more hot-headed and less risk-averse than older people. Many are also jobless and see no future for themselves in today's Egypt. It may therefore not be so easy to suppress the revolt and the probability of a civil war breaking out cannot be dismissed out of hand.
Egyptian Pound



Civil War Has Started

It appears to me that a civil war has already started. Regardless, the pertinent question is "How quickly can the military suppress the violence?"

I do not know the answer to that. However, one can watch the stock market, interest rates, credit default swaps, and the Egyptian pound to survey the progress. The currency has stabilized for now, but indicators in aggregate are not so promising. Initially, yields fell following the overthrow of Morsi. Now, along with CDS, they are on the rise.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Seth's Blog : Mirrors, cameras and cultural evolution

 

Mirrors, cameras and cultural evolution

It's safe to say that everyone reading this has seen an accurate reflection in a mirror. Everyone you know has seen their face in a mirror as well.

A thousand years ago (a nanosecond in evolutionary time) virtually no one had.

Mirrors are a big deal. Elephants and primates have been shown to be able to recognize themselves in a mirror, and the idea of self-image is one of the cornerstones of our culture. Hard to imagine walking through the world without knowing what you look like.

Fascinating aside: When we see a famous person in the mirror, our perception changes.

I hope we can agree that in 2013, anyone who gets uncomfortable around mirrors, who says mirrors aren't their thing, who tries to avoid a job where they might see a mirror--that person is a bit outside the mainstream.

Cameras are mirrors, but unlike the momentary glimpse of the traditional mirror, they are permanent, and now the web amplifies them. Do you see how many people pose for snapshots? The unnatural posture, the fake smile... there's anxiety here, and it's because unlike seeing ourselves in the mirror, we're being captured, forever. Multiply this fear by the million people who might see this photo on Instagram...

No one gets tense in front of mirrors any longer. Experienced professionals don't get tense in front of cameras, either.

It probably used to be okay to say, "mirrors freak me out," or to assert that they contained demons. No longer. It certainly wasn't uncommon for cultures to resist cameras at first, and to take the phrase, "take a picture," quite literally. This resistance is also dying out and almost gone.

And yet... And yet we still freeze up when someone takes a picture, we hold our breaths before we go on stage, we give away our deepest insecurities when someone puts us on video...

Mirrors and cameras each took a generation or more to catch on as widespread foundations of our culture. It's not surprising, then, that so many people fear social media. It's about us, and when we're on the hook, in front of people we can't know or trust, we hold back.

For a while.

And then we don't.

       

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