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miercuri, 26 februarie 2014

Keeping America on the cutting edge

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Keeping America on the cutting edge

President Obama is making sure America stays at the forefront of innovation.

Yesterday, the President announced two new public-private manufacturing innovation institutes -- one in Chicago and one in the Detroit area -- and a competition for the first of four additional institutes that will boost advanced manufacturing in the United States.

American manufacturers have created 622,000 jobs since early 2010, and President Obama is committed to building on that progress.

"If we want to attract more good manufacturing jobs to America," he said, "we've got to make sure we're on the cutting edge of new manufacturing techniques and technologies."

Just this afternoon, the President announced that the Department of Transportation is making available $600 million in Transportation Investment Generating Economic Recovery (TIGER) grants, a tremendously successful program investing in our nation's infrastructure.

Those grants won't just help repair our crumbling roads and bridges -- they'll create more jobs in the process.

Learn more about how the President is keeping America on the cutting edge of innovation -- and other ways he's making 2014 a year of action.

President Barack Obama delivers remarks announcing two new public-private Manufacturing Innovation Institutes, and launches the first of four new Manufacturing Innovation Institute Competitions, in the East Room of the White House, Feb. 25, 2014. (Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson)

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We Might Be Building Iron Man

Featured

We Might Be Building Iron Man

Yesterday, President Obama announced new public-private manufacturing innovation institutes -- one in Chicago and one in the Detroit area -- that will help attract the types of high-quality jobs that a growing middle class requires.

But the President had another announcement, too:

I'm here to announce that we're building Iron Man. I'm going to blast off in a second... this has been a secret project we've been working on for a long time. Not really. Maybe. It's classified.

Find out more about yesterday's announcement and Iron Man. Maybe.

New Study Shows Original Content Reaches More People on Facebook

Posted: 25 Feb 2014 03:14 PM PST

Posted by Chad_Wittman

This post was originally in YouMoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of Moz, Inc.

Facebook continues to make significant changes in the news feed. This time Facebook has decreased the importance (technically the "weight") of status updates. With these changes occurring so rapidly in the news feed, many brand managers want to know how to stay on top of it all.

We dug deep into the data to see what the latest change was and wanted to introduce a philosophy to stay ahead of the constant changes. We analyze and monitor this type of data for thousands of Facebook pages with a tool called EdgeRank Checker.

On Jan. 21, Facebook released a blog post explaining that status updates from pages are less engaging than status updates from friends. In other words, status updates were going to lose exposure in the news feed.

The change was implemented nearly immediately, as we saw organic reach begin to dip rapidly. In the graph below, you'll see a ~40% decrease from the two weeks after Jan. 21, as compared to the two weeks before:

While frustrating for many brands, status updates aren't displayed nearly as often as links and photos, as they typically don't provide as much value to the business. Status updates are typically used for gathering general opinions or quick message updates, whereas links can drive actual traffic.

During this change, the other content types were not significantly impacted. Most experienced a very moderate decrease, which is most likely due to normal fluctuations. Interestingly, videos have now become the strongest performer in the news feed. Our sample size for posts with videos is less than optimal, but our historical data shows a similar pattern. For brands that have the capability to deliver engaging videos, it should be considered as an interesting content outlet in the future.

How does a brand stay ahead?

As we study each change in the news feed, a common theme begins to appear. Content that creates value tends to bubble to the top. Google has a similar approach with search results. We see Facebook slowly becoming similar to Google in that capacity. When we examine the brands that are less impacted by negative changes, they tend to have strong engagementâ€"specifically shares. Why is this? We think we can explain this phenomenon with a concept called Content Originator.

Content Originator

Brands that actually create the content (thus, Content Originators) are the ones that experience the most value in the news feed. We've seen Google take a similar approach with examining inbound links. Content Originators actually have less to do with Facebook specifically, as compared to the maturation of any social network. Twitter most likely experiences similar results, which you can see as a Tweet propagates across the worldâ€"the Content Originator gets more exposure.

The reason that Content Originators are able to succeed with an onslaught of changes is that they are able to utilize natural distribution networks such as shares. While Facebook's algorithms may not weigh their initial post as heavily as before, strong engagement and shares are strong signals to distribute the content further.

The news feed is filled with increasing competition that boasts larger and larger budgets to gain exposure within the feed. Being a Content Originator helps slice through the noise created by so many pages re-reporting news. The re-reporting of news is something that Facebook is attempting to decrease through these changes. It is also possible that brands will begin to gain additional exposure through the "Trending" section if they're the Content Originator of a new and trending topic.

In an example below, you can see the local value that Facebook provides in the trending result. A story that was shared on Facebook 2,000+ times from CarolinaLive (not quite a Content Originator, but as close as you can get in a situation like this, as compared to a CNN-type news source) is given the extra exposure. The next object listed is from Fox Carolina News, again more of a Content Originator than the national brand of Fox News.

The example above is meant to illustrate how Facebook perceives Content Originators elsewhere in their platform. We use things like this as clues to better understand how the news feed works.

Conclusion

Facebook decreased organic reach of status updates by ~40% on Jan. 21. For most brands, this doesn't have a large impact on their strategy, as they are mostly using links and photos to further increase their brand. Using a concept called Content Originator might help craft a content strategy that stays ahead of news feed changes. Facebook may be placing additional value on content originators in the news feed, and is surely valuing brands with strong engagementâ€"especially ones with high share levels.

Methodology

We studied roughly 50,000 posts from 800 different pages for the two weeks before and after Jan. 21. For most metrics, we examined the median of each page's average performance over the time period analyzed. Engagement is defined as likes + comments + shares for this study.

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Learning To Use Excel Macros For PPC

Posted: 26 Feb 2014 02:48 AM PST

If you're good with Excel's formulae and pivot tablets you may want to go to the next level and start making your own macros.

A macro is a short program that tells Excel to do a series of actions. You can get a macro to do just about anything you could do manually, which means macros are great tools for automating your work.

Why Use Macros?

1. Because you're doing the same thing over and over again.

2. Because you want to make your own keyboard shortcut.

3. Because you're doing the same thing over and over and over again.

4. Because you want to do something with a lot of data, and the processor can't take it.

5. Because you're doing the same thing over and over and over and over again.

How Do I Use Macros?

The easiest way, hands down, is to record them.

First you need the Developer tab on the ribbon (i.e. the toolbar thing at the top).

On Windows, right click on the ribbon and click 'Customize the ribbon'. You'll see a list of Main Tabs – check the box next to 'Developer' and click 'OK'.

The Developer tab in Excel 2013 – other Excels will look similar, but less flat.

Click 'Record Macro'. Type in a name (but note the name can't contain spaces). If you want, give it a shortcut key (choosing L, Q or T means you won't overwrite an existing shortcut). Press 'OK'. Do whatever it is you want Excel to learn. Click 'Stop Recording'.

This has the problem that it will precisely copy what you do and can only change the cells affected in a certain way. If you click 'Use Relative References' then you can record a macro that affects different cells according to where the cell you initially selected is, but you can't do anything like copying the selected data and pasting onto the end of a list in another worksheet.

Something More Powerful

The next easiest way to use macros is to record what you can and then look at the code Excel has generated and alter it yourself. This requires a little coding knowledge but, as you've got the fall-back of recording actions when you don't know how to code something, you only need the basics.

If you want to edit a recorded macro, click on the 'Macros' button on the Developer tab, select the macro and click 'Edit'. This will open a 'Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications' window with the macro's code in.

I suggest reading a simple guide to macros such as Excel-Easy's tutorial, so you know how to do the basics. Then play around, recording your actions in Excel and modifying the code to make it more flexible.

Also, remember that if you have a question, odds are that someone else has asked it before. This probably goes without saying, but searching for what you need is usually the quickest way to find a solution. For example, I wanted to check if a worksheet of a certain name already existed, and a search for "check worksheet exists macro" took to me some pre-coded solutions at the MrExcel message board.

Avoiding Excel Meltdown

You might find (especially with an older computer) that trying to do a bunch of VLOOKUPs or SUMIFs over a lot of data leaves Excel floundering, all processor cores whirring, and your work grinding to a standstill. You can speed things up a bit by splitting up the formulae to automatically look to smaller bits of the spreadsheet.

For example, I was trying to see if an ad group level negative keyword was in all ad groups of a campaign, so the negative could be moved to campaign level. The negative keywords came copied out of AdWords Editor, in columns A to D.

I was using a COUNTIFS, so it looks at everything and then counts what has a matching campaign, a matching keyword and a matching criterion type.

=COUNTIFS($A:$A,$A2,$C:$C,$C2,$D:$D,$D2)

The problem is this doesn't work very well if there are lots of negative keywords to count through.

So, instead of including the campaign within the COUNTIFS, I used a macro to produce COUNTIFS statements with a different range for each campaign – there were still the same number of COUNTIFS, but instead of counting through over 100 000 negatives each time Excel just had to check one campaign's worth.

First, we use an AUTOFILTER to order the negatives in (columns A to D) by campaign (column A). To do this, I recorded a macro of me adding a filter and sorting the relevant columns, and then added a comment to explain what the code does:

'Sorts by campaign name Range("A1:D1").Select Selection.AutoFilter ActiveWorkbook.Worksheets("Neg KWs").AutoFilter.Sort.SortFields.Clear ActiveWorkbook.Worksheets("Neg KWs").AutoFilter.Sort.SortFields.Add Key:= _ Range("A1"), SortOn:=xlSortOnValues, Order:=xlAscending, DataOption:= _ xlSortNormal With ActiveWorkbook.Worksheets("Neg KWs").AutoFilter.Sort .Header = xlYes .MatchCase = False .Orientation = xlTopToBottom .SortMethod = xlPinYin .Apply End With Selection.AutoFilter

Then we declare two variables – these will record where the current campaign starts and ends. Row 1 has headers, so row 2 has the first cell of the first campaign – so we initially set the start number to 2.

Dim startRow As Long, endRow As Long startRow = 2

And we add cell values to give titles to the new columns.

Range("E1").Value = "Repeats in campaign"

Now we get to the bit that will have to repeat for every campaign.

As the campaign names are in alphabetic order we know that if the first campaign name appears (say) 17 times, then all of these 17 appearances will be clumped together, starting with startRow. If the first appearance is in row 2 then the last in row 18. So the endRow should be the number of times the campaign name appears, plus the start row, minus one.

How do we find out how many times the campaign name appears? Application.WorksheetFunction contains all the regular Excel functions, so you can use them within your macro. So we can use Application.WorksheetFunction.CountIf like a normal COUNTIF formula, to count the number of times the campaign name appears.

endRow = Application.WorksheetFunction.CountIf(Range("A:A"), Range("A" & startRow)) + startRow - 1

Now that we know what range we have, we can write a COUNTIFS formula to just cover the current campaign.

'The formula Range("E" & startRow).Value = "=COUNTIFS($C$" & startRow & ":$C$" & endRow & ",C" & startRow & ",$D$" & startRow & ":$D$" & endRow & ",D" & startRow & ")"

When we have the formula in the first cell of the campaign, we can select the cells

'Copies the formula in the cells for the same campaigns Range("E" & startRow & ":E" & endRow).Select Selection.FillDown

(Selection.FillDown is the equivalent of pressing CTRL + D – it duplicates whatever's in the top cell.)

We then copy the COUNTIFS and paste them as values – this means the values will be saved, and they won't be recalculated whenever calculations happen.

Selection.Copy Selection.PasteSpecial Paste:=xlPasteValues, Operation:=xlNone, SkipBlanks _ :=False, Transpose:=False

We then want to do this all again with the next campaign, and the next campaign's startRow will be just underneath the endRow of the current campaign

startRow = endRow + 1

We then put the code into a While loop, so it will keep going until it runs out of campaigns.

Do While startRow <= Application.WorksheetFunction.CountA(Range("A:A")) 'insert the code to be repeated here Loop

Here we're using a COUNTA function to count the total number of entries in the campaign column, as this is the number of the last row. When the startRow is less than or equal to this number, there is at least one campaign left to go so the loop fires again.

It would be useful to know how many ad groups are in each campaign as well – the easiest way I've found to do this is to copy columns A and B (the columns and ad groups) somewhere else in the sheet (L and M, for example) and then remove duplicates. This is something you can record a macro for easily!

'Copy just the campaign and ad group names for counting Columns("A:B").Select Range("B1").Activate Selection.Copy Columns("L:L").Select ActiveSheet.Paste Application.CutCopyMode = False ActiveSheet.Range("$L$1:$M$91").RemoveDuplicates Columns:=Array(1, 2), Header _ :=xlNo

Then the number of ad groups in a campaign is the number of times that campaign's name appears in column L where column M isn't blank. (M is blank where there are campaign level negatives.)

Add into your program before the loop:

Range("F1").Value = "Ad groups in campaign"

And in the loop, next to the other COUNTIFS function, add in:

Range("F" & startRow).Value = "=COUNTIFS($L:$L,A" & startRow & ",$M:$M,""*"")"

(The double double quotes, "", will be treated as part of the text by the macro, and be treated as " when it's made into a formula in the spreadsheet.)

We then need to adjust the next bit of loop so it copies down the new COUNTIFS in column F as well as the ones in column E.

'Copies the formulae for the cells for the same campaigns Range("E" & startRow & ":F" & endRow).Select

Then at the end, after the loops, we don't need the stuff in L or M anymore so we can delete it.

Columns("L:M").Select Selection.Delete Shift:=xlToLeft

So now the program looks like:

  'Copy just the campaign and ad group names for counting
  Columns("A:B").Select
  Range("B1").Activate
  Selection.Copy
  Columns("L:L").Select
  ActiveSheet.Paste
  Application.CutCopyMode = False
  ActiveSheet.Range("$L$1:$M$91").RemoveDuplicates Columns:=Array(1, 2), Header _
  :=xlNo
  'Declare variables and label headers
  Dim startRow As Long, endRow As Long
  startRow = 2
  Range("E1").Value = "Repeats in campaign"
  Range("F1").Value = "Ad groups in campaign"
  Do While startRow <= Application.WorksheetFunction.CountA(Range("A:A"))
  endRow = Application.WorksheetFunction.CountIf(Range("A:A"), Range("A" & startRow)) + startRow - 1
  'The formulea
  Range("E" & startRow).Value = "=COUNTIFS($C$" & startRow & ":$C$" & endRow & ",C" & startRow & ",$D$" & startRow & ":$D$" & endRow & ",D" & startRow & ")"
  Range("F" & startRow).Value = "=COUNTIFS($L:$L,A" & startRow & ",$M:$M,""*"")"
  'Copies the formulea for the cells for the same campaigns
  Range("E" & startRow & ":F" & endRow).Select
  Selection.FillDown
  Selection.Copy
  Selection.PasteSpecial Paste:=xlPasteValues, Operation:=xlNone, SkipBlanks _
  :=False, Transpose:=False
  startRow = endRow + 1
  Loop

Columns("L:M").Select Selection.Delete Shift:=xlToLeft

The Results

Once it has run through you should see something like this:

It turns out in this example that 'never gonna' is in all ad groups in the Chorus campaign, so it could be moved to campaign level. 'You' is in 5 out of 6, so it might be worth seeing if it should be campaign level as well (although there could be a reason it's not in one ad group so you would have to use your judgement.)

You download a spreadsheet with this macro in here.

Was this useful? Do you have any tips of your own when starting with macros? Let us know in the comments.

Image credit: macro (get it?) photography of clockwork by Acid Pix

The post Learning To Use Excel Macros For PPC appeared first on White Noise.

Seth's Blog : The opposite of why is now

The opposite of why is now

Questions are good. A legitimate, "why?" is enough to change the world.

But stalling, stalling is the last thing you need. And why is often an escape hatch for people who know what they should do, but fear doing it. It's easier to ponder, to question the meaning of this or our role in where we go next.

The best answer for the stalling why is: Go.

[and of course, the best response to the impestuous, status-quo driven 'Go' is to ask, "why?"]

• Email to a friend •

marți, 25 februarie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Close-Up Look at Illinois' Unemployment Rate, Collective Bargaining, and Right to Work Laws; Illinois Employment Collapse
You Too Can Make Millions "Flipping" Houses
Ukraine Government Delays Vote, Currency Hits Record Low, Default Feared; Ukraine Asks for $35B, Bank Runs Underway
Bye Bye Mt. Gox: Bitcoin Exchange Website Appears to Have Been Deleted; Value of MtGox Bitcoins Plummets to $135

Close-Up Look at Illinois' Unemployment Rate, Collective Bargaining, and Right to Work Laws; Illinois Employment Collapse

Posted: 25 Feb 2014 05:18 PM PST

Michael Lucci at the Illinois Policy Institute has some interesting comment regarding unemployment in Illinois and why it matters.

Via email from Lucci ...

A smaller and smaller percentage of adults are working to support the entire state population. Why does this matter?

Because a booming economy provides the benefits of opportunity and upward mobility. But not only that. Growing the number of taxpayers is essential for funding core government services and pension bills. The only other tools legislators have are tax hikes, which have done more to chase away taxpayers than to fund the government.

The percentage of the working-age population that is employed fell by 5.6 percentage points, from 65 percent in January 2008 to 59.4 percent in December 2013. This percentage, called the employment ratio, has been described by economist Paul Ashworth as the "best measure of labor market conditions."

The Great Recession hit the jobs market in January 2008. Since then, Illinois has seen a greater decline in its employment ratio than any other state in the Midwest.

Illinois has 380,000 fewer people employed now than before the recession. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment is still up by nearly 200,000 people, and at least 185,000 people have given up and left the labor force.

There is no solution to the state's fiscal problems without a booming economy and a growing tax base. Job No. 1 for Springfield is to create a business-friendly environment. That begins with cuts to the fourth-highest corporate tax rate and ninth-highest tax burden nationally.

Reforming the ninth most expensive regulatory system and the fourth most expensive workers' compensation system would lead to welcome opportunities for job seekers.

Indiana and Michigan have led the Midwest in pro-jobs labor reforms by allowing their workers to choose whether to join a union. Illinois is surrounded by states making positive reforms. It's time for officials to get in the game.

Michael Lucci
Director of Jobs and Growth

Illinois vs. Wisconsin

My slight quibble with the article is Lucci left out Wisconsin for comparison.

Following governor Walker's courageous anti-union stance, Wisconsin's state budget went from a $2 billion deficit to a nearly $1 billion surplus. And all this happened with hardly any public-sector employees losing their jobs. Wisconsin is poised to offer its people $500 million a year in tax relief. It looks like Walker picked the right strategy.

Illinois is in a bigger mess. The state's pensions are underfunded by at least $100 billion. Powerful teacher unions can shut down schools to win pay hikes from nearly broke school districts. A temporary tax increase is liable to be made permanent – or worse, replaced with a progressive income tax that will chase more middle-class families and businesses out of our state.

Lucci may have left out the Wisconsin comparison, but his associate Paul Kersey didn't.

Please consider Kersey's take: Wisconsin's labor reforms reach three-year mark: Should Illinois have followed Walker's lead?

Union-Busting is a Godsend

Here is my take: Actual Wisconsin results prove Union-Busting is a "Godsend"; Elimination of Collective Bargaining is the Single Best Thing one Can do for School Kids

It's time to implement national right-to-work laws and put an end to public union collective bargaining nationally.

I salute governor Scott Walker for leading the way. Senator Rand Paul wants to do the same thing nationally. I also salute Senator Paul's efforts.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

You Too Can Make Millions "Flipping" Houses

Posted: 25 Feb 2014 12:25 PM PST

I have been under constant barrage of unsolicited phone calls recently. The phone calls typically begin with the same lie: "Mr. Shedlock you told a colleague of mine a few months ago to call you back when we have a really good investment opportunity".

Given that I never ask anyone to call back, they are known liars from the start. Depending on what kind of mood I am in, I may hang up immediately or listen long enough to hear what kind of nonsense they are peddling.

I asked one of the liars the name of his colleague that called. He answered George. I said "George who?".

The caller got exasperated and replied "Washington".

The predominant thing these guys are peddling is the opportunity to lose a lot of money fast, frequently in the oil or natural gas industry. But lately the charlatans have pestered me with real estate opportunities, shorting gold, and buying microcap stocks I have never heard of (most likely the classic pump-and-dump) variety.

This is the kind of thing that happens at market tops. Everyone wants in, and the fraudsters come out in force to take advantage.

Nonetheless, I offer my standard warning: Just because this activity happens at peaks, does not mean this is the peak.

Sentiment typically gets more extreme than anyone thinks possible.

Social Media Bubble

Facebook recently paid $19 billion for WhatsApp, a company with 55 employees and no revenue.

Supposedly this is a good deal because WhatsApp is growing fast. It is growing fast because it has a cute texting app that it gives away for free.

How many customers would it have if it starts charging? Enough for a $19 billion valuation? Not a chance.

Pater Tenebrarum has interesting discussion in his commentary "Social Media Bubble".

Flipping Yet Again

Meanwhile, this farcical ad popped up on my screen just today.

Want to know what "As seen on TV" means?"

Typically it is a sleazy phrase that means they ran an ad somewhere on TV, at least once.

Such ads usually run on an obscure channel at 3:00AM. But hey, it's "as seen on TV". They never said "in a show".

Please note the little asterisk that reads "results based on effort".

Also note a word is missing. Here is the split sentence combined "Learn How to Get Started Flipping Houses Than Merrill - Star of A&E's "Flip This House"

The ad makes no sense unless your mind inserts the word "Better" right after the word "Houses".

I have a simple question: didn't we try this before?

Addendum:

I have a few minor corrections.

I said "WhatsApp has no revenue". I should have said "WhatsApp has essentially no revenue." It did have $20 million in revenue. For that $20 million in revenue it got a $19 billion buyout - $950 for every $1 of revenue.

The revenue stems from the fact that WhatsApp charges a tiny fee for its service, but only after the first year of free service. That is my second correction. I should have said "essentially free".

Rest assured competition will drive price down to the break-even point or nearly so.

Finally, I never heard of "Than Merrill" a person's name. So I guess the ad reads OK, but it still is ridiculous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Ukraine Government Delays Vote, Currency Hits Record Low, Default Feared; Ukraine Asks for $35B, Bank Runs Underway

Posted: 25 Feb 2014 10:53 AM PST

The Ukrainian Hryvnia fell to a record low today with warnings from Russia regarding defaults.

Russia had pledged bailout loans to Ukraine, but following the overthrow of president Viktor Yanukovych, Russia suspended the bailout. Ukraine now needs money from elsewhere.

Russia Warns of Ukraine Default

Bloomberg reports Ukraine Delays Government Vote as Russia Warns of Default.

Acting President Oleksandr Turchynov pushed back a parliamentary vote to Feb. 27 from today as he attempts to win agreement with protest leaders who orchestrated the revolt.

With Yanukovych on the run after weeks of anti-government protests turned deadly, Ukraine's new leaders are grasping for a financial lifeline as Russia weighs the fate of a $15 billion bailout it granted in December. Russia's deputy finance minister said there's a high chance Ukraine will default.

While Ukrainian assets have benefited from the momentum for financial aid, government bonds snapped three days of gains. The yield on dollar debt due 2023 was up 30 basis points at 9.554 percent at 5:32 p.m. in Kiev. The hryvnia plunged 6.4 percent to a record 9.8 per dollar, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Ukraine risks default without "significantly favorable changes" in its political crisis, Standard & Poor's said Feb. 21 as it cut the nation's credit rating to CCC, leaving it eight levels short of investment grade.

Russia's Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak echoed those concerns. Russia won't be the party to declare default, though it's under no legal obligation to disburse the remaining $12 billion of the bailout, he told reporters in Moscow today.

Lawmakers yesterday moved quickly to appoint Stepan Kubiv, the ex-chairman of Lviv-based VAT Kredobank, to head the central bank after voting out Ihor Sorkin. Kubiv plans to invite an International Monetary Fund mission, the Unian news service reported, without giving details. The central bank imposed capital controls this month to stem the hryvnia's slide.

Ukraine Asks for $35B, Bank Runs Underway

The Financial Times reports Ukraine's interim government asks for $35bn in loans.

Ukraine said on Monday that it needed $35bn in aid over the next two years, including urgent loans within two weeks, but the international community seemed unlikely to start talks on a big rescue package before elections in May.

Yuriy Kolobov, Ukraine's acting finance minister, said Kiev would pursue the short-term loans from individual countries, singling out the US and Poland as potential lenders.

But Radoslaw Sikorski, Polish foreign minister, said that Ukraine should look to the International Monetary Fund for assistance.

Despite the urgency from Kiev, the IMF is insisting that tough conditions will have to be agreed before any loans are paid out. This is increasing pressure on countries to provide more immediate support bilaterally.

But analysts said there were signs of capital flight, including the start of runs on some Ukrainian banks, draining Kiev's already meagre dollar reserves. Officially, Ukraine has slightly more than $17bn in reserves, down from an already low $20.4bn at the end of last year.

The hryvnia currency has also hit five-year lows. The country of 46m people must pay back some $12bn of its $73bn debt this year.

Will Aid Come Quickly Enough?

Financial Times blogger Peter Spiegel asks Will Ukraine Aid Come Quickly Enough?

Almost all major economic powers were out on Monday saying that any aid package would have to wait for a full International Monetary Fund programme. But such "stand-by arrangements" can take months to negotiate – and IMF officials have made clear they want a new government firmly in place before those negotiations can begin, so that may mean we're waiting until after May's presidential elections.

So will Ukraine make it until then? Analysts are dubious, and the Ukrainian finance ministry's declaration on Monday that they are seeking bilateral loans from the US and Poland in the next week or two certainly implies that they're not sure they can make it that long either.

At the beginning of the year, the National Bank of Ukraine reported that it held $17.8bn in reserves. That may sound like a lot, it's down a whopping $2.6bn from the month before – a 13 per cent decrease. And there are suddenly a lot of demands on the remaining reserves.

First, in order to keep the Ukrainian hryvnia from completely tanking during the crisis, the central bank has had to purchase huge volumes of the currency on the open market. A new report issued today by the Institute of International Finance – the association of all major global financial institutions – said that in January alone, the central bank spent $1.7bn shoring up the hryvnia.

The second, potentially more troubling development is what the IIF believes to be an accelerating run on Ukrainian banks, with depositors demanding withdrawals in dollars. Since the IIF is an association of banks, their data is probably pretty good on this. They figure that reserves probably fell by another $3.5bn-$4bn by the end of last week due to those dollar withdrawals.

According to an investor presentation made by the finance ministry last year, 16.3 per cent of its $73.1bn in national debt must be repaid this year. That's about $12bn. In its downgrade of Ukraine last week, Standard & Poor's estimated that it's closer to $13bn, when you add the debts of the state-owned gas company Naftogaz.

As S&P noted, if the central bank runs short of dollars to defend the hryvnia in the currency markets, that could lead to a rapid devaluation. Indeed, it's already dropped about 16 per cent since the start of the year. With 46.5 per cent of Ukrainian debt denominated in dollars, and another 3.2 per cent in euros, a rapid devaluation means the value of those debts suddenly goes up, and the cost of refreshing reserves goes up, too.

In other words, not a pretty picture. And one that could get a lot worse very quickly unless someone steps in to stanch the bleeding.

Ukraine Hryvnia

The above chart pegs the value at 9.155 to the dollar.

Recent reports say the hryvnia was down 7 percent at one point Tuesday, to 9.8 hryvnia per dollar.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Bye Bye Mt. Gox: Bitcoin Exchange Website Appears to Have Been Deleted; Value of MtGox Bitcoins Plummets to $135

Posted: 24 Feb 2014 11:46 PM PST

The "MtGox" bitcoin exchange site that handled a vast majority of bitcoin transactions is now unavailable at best.

More likely, money at Mt. Gox has vanished by fraud.

Yesterday, Reuters reported Mt. Gox's CEO resigns from Bitcoin Foundation.

Today the Wall Street Journal notes Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox's Website Appears to Have Been Deleted

The website of embattled bitcoin exchange platform Mt. Gox was unavailable Tuesday and appeared to have been deleted.

Attempts to reach the Mt. Gox homepage yield an answer from the server but display no data, indicating the server is functioning but that the site has no content.

The Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange has frozen bitcoin withdrawals since the beginning of February, stoking fears of bankruptcy from its investors and those in the broader bitcoin community.

Value of MtGox Bitcoins Plummets to $135

Also consider MtGox bitcoin plunges as website disappears

The website of Tokyo-based bitcoin exchange MtGox went down on Tuesday after the value of the virtual unit sank to about a quarter of that on other platforms and Japanese regulators said they were unable to step in.

Visitors to the www.mtgox.com domain got a blank page when they tried to log on, more than two weeks after the firm suspended cash withdrawals as claims swirled of a bug in the software underpinning bitcoin.

Consternation has grown since MtGox stopped processing external transactions on February 7, claiming there was a problem with the program that powers the currency, and allows it to be transferred between users or swapped for goods and services.

The value of the unit on the exchange has gone into freefall since then. Around midday on Tuesday, a bitcoin was worth $135, compared with the $522 quoted by the CoinDesk bitcoin price index, which tracks the price of the currency on major exchanges.

In January a bitcoin was worth more than $900 at MtGox, one of the world's oldest exchanges for the unit.

MtGox, which has not responded to repeated AFP requests for comment, issued a statement last week saying it had moved its headquarters within Tokyo due to "security problems" and was still working on "re-initiating bitcoin withdrawals".

It did not give details of the security problems.

"The move, combined with some other security and technical challenges, pushed back our progress," the firm said Thursday in their most recent public statement.

Earlier this month, the company brought down its system and stopped processing client requests to withdraw money held at its "wallet", citing a problem with the technology.

Problem with technology or a problem with fraud? I strongly suspect the latter.

Rise and Collapse of Bitcoin

Bitcoin rose from pennies to over $1200. But that was only good if you collected it.

Bitcoin Wisdom has some live charts. Here is the Mt. Gox exchange.

It is quite possible that Mt. Gox bitcoins are nearly worthless. If so, some paper millionaires lost it all.

I will also toss out another idea that I have not seen discussed: The bitcoins are still at Mt. Gox, and people are panic selling to fraud perpetrators who purposely shut down the site to induce a panic.

Either way, it's a mess.

I was never at ease with the idea of bitcoins, and this fiasco certainly makes me happy I am not involved with Mt. Gox.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

miercuri, 26 februarie 2014

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