Seth's Blog : Short term, long term

 

Short term, long term

The best way to change long-term behavior is with short-term feedback.

The opposite is not true. We rarely change short-term behavior with long-term feedback.

That's why sanctions rarely work well in international politics, and why cigarette taxes are the best way to keep people from getting lung cancer.

Sure, intelligent adults should be smart enough to figure out the net present value of a lifetime of cigarette purchases, plus the long-term health costs. And some are. But not enough.

And students should be smart enough to realize that extra effort and expense in college might pay off in income or happiness in a few decades. And some are. But not enough.

If you want to reward (or punish) short-term behavior, don't do it down the road. Advances turn more heads than royalty streams do. 

       

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Afghanistan a How-To Lesson in Perfect Stupidity: 54,000 Paid Ghosts, Vanishing Firearms, Warlord Protection Rackets Posted: 02 Aug 2014 11:56 AM PDT Thank president Bush, vice president Dick Cheney, and president Obama for working together to create a how-to map of perfect foreign policy stupidity. The Telegraph has details in Afghanistan has cost more to rebuild than Europe after Second World War American taxpayers have provided £61.5 billion since 2002 and Britain about £890 million, for hundreds of development projects. The military operation has cost America a further £296 billion and Britain £22 billion. Nearly 13 years after the Taliban were overthrown, the US and other donors continue to fund 60 per cent of the Afghan national budget and are pledged to underwrite a further "decade of transformation" in the country. "Large areas of the country will soon be off limits to US personnel due to base closures and troop withdrawals," the report by the Special Inspector General for Afghan Reconstruction says. About 80 per cent of the country is already beyond the reach of US government monitors, according to an estimate last October. Senior members of the Afghan government have accrued vast wealth since 2001 including members of President Karzai's family. A US army analysis made public in April said: "Corruption directly threatens the viability and legitimacy of the Afghan state." Western forces are "trapped in a warlord protection racket" Despite $7.6 billion spent on counter-narcotics operations, opium production has increased for the past three years and is now at record levels. America and the EU spent more than $3 billion on building up the Afghan police force, yet 54,000 of those policemen are "ghosts" — non-existent but being paid each month. Mr Sopko found that 16 Italian-built C27 transport planes worth $486 million had been left to rot next to the runway at Kabul airport. The US had provided 747,000 firearms to Afghan security forces worth $626 million. They found that 43 per cent have disappeared from official stock lists that track their whereabouts in Afghanistan. What some see as "perfect stupidity" others (especially the industrial-military complex) see as a "job well done", complete with arms to the Taliban to ensure that the war on terrorism goes on and on. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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It's Time for Congress to Help the Middle Class

Here's what's going on at the White House today.         DAILY SNAPSHOT Saturday, August 02, 2014             Featured Weekly Address: It's Time for Congress to Help the Middle Class The President discusses the new monthly jobs report and the fact that our economy created over 200,000 new jobs in July for the sixth straight month – the longest streak since 1997. To ensure this momentum can be sustained, the President is pressing Congress to act to create jobs and expand opportunity from raising the minimum wage, to helping people pay back their student loans, to fair pay and paid leave. These are steps that would continue to make things better for the middle class, which has always been his priority. But Republicans in Congress have repeatedly blocked these important measures. As Congress is about to go on vacation, the President encouraged Americans to reach out to their elected officials and let them know that they must pass these measures when Congress returns to session. And in their absence, the President will continue to do everything he can, working with all stakeholders who are willing, to create jobs, strengthen our economy, and expand opportunity for all Americans. Click here to watch this week's Weekly Address.       Top Stories 53 Straight Months of Job Growth Yesterday was the first Friday of the month. It was Jobs Day, and we saw another month of encouraging trends in the labor market. In July, the private sector gained 198,000 jobs, and total job growth has exceeded 200,000 jobs for six straight months -- the first time that has happened since 1997. READ MORE BBQ, Iced Tea, and the Economy President Obama just got back from Kansas City, Missouri, where he grabbed BBQ with some letter writers, picked up an iced tea at Parkville Coffee, and chatted with employees at Peddlers Wagon, a quilt and gift shop. As the President took a walk down Main Street (literally), visiting storefronts and chatting with local residents, we got it all on video -- we think you'll want to see this: In the middle of meeting with everyday folks and chowing down on BBQ, the President spoke to a fired-up crowd about the progress our economy has made since he took office and how Republican obstructionism in Congress is hurting hard-working Americans. "Come on and help out a little bit," the President said. "Stop being mad all the time. Stop just hatin' all the time...Let's get some work done together." READ MORE Africa's Next Generation of Leaders On Monday, President Obama hosted a town hall with 500 of Africa's most inspirational and promising young leaders. The participants are in the Washington Fellowship program, which is part of the President Obama's Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI), created by the President in 2010. These young leaders came from all over Africa to the United States to gain new skills, expand their networks, and strengthen the connections between the United States and Africa. Despite the challenges that Africa faces, the President told the crowd that they should be optimistic about the trajectory of their countries: "The great thing about being young is you are not bound by the past, and you can shape the future." READ MORE As always, to see even more of this week's events, watch the latest West Wing Week.   Facebook     Twitter    |   More Ways to Engage Did Someone Forward This to You? Sign Up for Email Updates This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111

Seth's Blog : Pleasing a person who is not in the room

 

Pleasing a person who is not in the room

One reason organizations slow and stumble is that teams of well-meaning people form committees and go to meetings, determined to please the boss. 

What they do, instead, is assume that the boss is far more conservative than she actually is. They buff off the edges, dilute the goodness and quench their curiosity. They churn out another version of what's already there, because they're imagining the most risk-averse version of their boss is in the room with them.

It's the boss's job to continually ask, "is this the most daring vision of your work?"

       

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• Wrong Time, Altered Videos, More Lies From Kiev
• Employment Perspective in Pictures: Only 25% of Decline in Fulltime Employment Attributable to Aging Workforce
• Nonfarm Payrolls 209,000, Unemployment 6.2%, Employed +131,000

Wrong Time, Altered Videos, More Lies From Kiev Posted: 01 Aug 2014 04:53 PM PDT Since the crash of MH17, Ukraine has stated repeatedly it had no weapons capable of downing the aircraft. The claims are blatant lies as noted in the video below by Ukrainian citizen, Anatole Sharyi. I wish I had English subtitles to the video, but a translation from Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and reads Ukrainian, will have to suffice. "Chas Ch" - H Hour From Dreizin ... Sharyi has found a clip that was broadcast on the Ukranian TV program "Chas Ch" ("H Hour") showing a Ukrainian Buk launcher (en face and then in profile) and attendant Kupol radar along with--around 52-54 seconds, off to the right--what appears to be some box-type, high-altitude SAM launcher, possibly a "Tor" variant. The caption on the broadcast reads: "Servicemen of the Ukranian armed forces patrolling a locale in the Anti-Terrorist Operation zone." Sharyi claims that the broadcast was from July 16th, 2014, the day before MH17 was downed. Claims Then Denial There you have it, Ukraine was bragging about and even showing videos of Buks in the area, then next day denyied them. If someone can put reliable English subtitles on that video, I would appreciate it. Second Video Here's a link to an even a longer 10-minute video, complete with a militarist patriotic intro. From Dreizin ... In this video, the caption at the top (within the video) also reads July 16th.  While it's not possible to conclusively verify from the program itself as to the date of the video, the voice-over near the beginning--which mentions place names near the Russian border where battles are occurring, as well as an accusation that artillery over the border in Russia has been bombarding Ukrainian forces--makes clear that it was broadcast this month, and probably mid-month.  Thus, I have no reason to believe that this was not broadcast on July 16th.  Also, not surprisingly given the content of the program (including the first few seconds, which are very air-defense focused), the original clip appears to have been taken down from YouTube. One day after the crash, Ukrainian "defense expert" Dmitri (Dmytro) Tymchuk, whose blog and Facebook page have been quoted or cited in U.S. media stated that Ukraine has no air defenses in the area. The US would rather believe a Facebook page that says what the US wants to hear, rather than a direct claim and videos of Ukrainian Buks in rebel territory published the day before the attack. Buk System By the way, please take another look at that first video, even if you cannot understand it. All media reports focus on the missile launcher. However, a Buk system takes at least three tank-sized components to operate. Buk System Components Missile launcher Command center Radar vehicle Logistics vehicle The first three units all have to be present in the area, functional, and must be in communication-radio line-of-sight. The logistics vehicle carries supplies and reload missiles. Wikipedia explains "In general, the system identifies potential targets (radar), selects a particular target (command), fires a missile (launcher) at the target, and resupplies the system (logistics). The missiles require a radar lock to initially steer the missile to the target until the missile's on-board radar system takes over to provide final course corrections. A proximity fuse aboard the missile determines when it will detonate, creating an expanding fragmentation pattern of missile components and warhead to intercept and destroy the target." Thus, a launcher by itself rolling around the countryside does not do much on its own accord. The "Chas Ch" video (first one) shows that well enough. Wrong Time, Altered Images It should not take two weeks to produce satellite images. But it did. And they were very sloppy. Please consider 'Wrong Time, Altered Images': Moscow Slams Kiev's MH17 Satellite Data. Satellite images Kiev published as 'proof' it didn't deploy anti-aircraft batteries around the MH17 crash site carry altered time-stamps and are from days after the MH17 tragedy, the Russian Defense Ministry has revealed. The images, which Kiev claims were taken by its satellites at the same time as those taken by Russian satellites, are neither Ukrainian nor authentic, according to Moscow's statement. The Defense Ministry said the images were apparently made by an American KeyHole reconnaissance satellite, because the two Ukrainian satellites currently in orbit, Sich-1 and Sich-2, were not positioned over the part of Ukraine's Donetsk Region shown in the pictures. Moscow claims weather and lighting conditions in the images were not possible at the dates and times Ukraine claims they were made, the Russian ministry said. Moscow Statement Rather than rely on RT, inquiring minds may wish to see Images and Analysis of Satellite Imagery Released by Ukraine, official analysis as released by Russian Ministry of Defense. Russia claims that Ukraine did not have satellites over that area at the time. The US did. And the images appear to be sloppily doctored, if you believe Russian analysis. Perhaps you don't want to, but I suggest Russian analysis appears far more professional, and timely than anything Ukraine or the US puts out. Regardless, it's clear both sides have engaged in tremendous amount of propaganda. Even if you do not believe Russia, there is absolutely no reason to believe a parade of lies from Kiev, 100% in plain sight. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Employment Perspective in Pictures: Only 25% of Decline in Fulltime Employment Attributable to Aging Workforce Posted: 01 Aug 2014 12:04 PM PDT Here's a series of charts from reader Tim Wallace on various aspects of employment, labor force, and population. The charts use seasonally unadjusted data, July of 2014 compared to July in prior years. click on any chart for sharper image Age 16 and Over Age 16 and Over Full-Time Employment Percentage Age 25-54 Age 25-54 Full-Time Employment Percentage Age 55 and Over Age 55 and Over Full-Time Employment Percentage Mish Notes Because of the aging workforce, the first chart in each series has a slight negative bias. For example: Note a relatively small decline in population in age group 25-54 from 125,715,000 to 124,500,000. That decline accounts for 1,215,000 of the drop in full-time employment from 99,912,000 to 95,098,000 (a drop of 4,814,000). The normalized drop in full-time employment is thus 4,814,000 - 1,215,000 or 3,599,000 which is still a pretty damning statistic. Here's another way of looking at things: Only 25% of the decline in full-time employment in the 25-54 age group can be attributed to the aging work force. The rest is overall economic weakness. The second, fourth, and sixth charts showing percentage changes provide an overall accurate view. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Nonfarm Payrolls 209,000, Unemployment 6.2%, Employed +131,000 Posted: 01 Aug 2014 08:11 AM PDT Initial Reaction Counting the upwardly revised 298,000 nonfarm payroll report in June (originally reported as 288,000), this was a decent report. Yet, digging into the details, the household survey showed a gain in employment of only 131,000. Thus, for the second consecutive month, the household survey was substantially weaker than the headline number. The unemployment rate rose by 0.1% (by 197,000) thanks to a rise in the labor force greater than the rise in employment. May BLS Jobs Statistics at a Glance Nonfarm Payroll: +209,000 - Establishment Survey Employment: +131,000 - Household Survey Unemployment: +197,000 - Household Survey Involuntary Part-Time Work: +275,000 - Household Survey Voluntary Part-Time Work: -33,000 - Household Survey Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 at 6.1% - Household Survey U-6 unemployment: +0.1 to 12.2% - Household Survey Civilian Non-institutional Population: +209,000 Civilian Labor Force: +329,000 - Household Survey Not in Labor Force: -119,000 - Household Survey Participation Rate: +0.1 at 62.9 - Household Survey Additional Notes About the Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate varies in accordance with the Household Survey, not the reported headline jobs number, and not in accordance with the weekly claims data. In the past year the working-age population rose by 2,226,000. In the last year the labor force declined by 330,000. In the last year, those "not" in the labor force rose by 1,939,000 In the past year, the number of people employed rose by 2,067,000 (an average of 172,250 a month) Please note that over the course of the last year, the working-age population rose by more than the number of people employed. In normal times, the unemployment rate would have gone up slightly. Instead, the unemployment rate fell from 7.3% to 6.2%. Over 100% of the decline in unemployment was due to people dropping out of the labor force, rather than strength in the economy! July 2014 Employment Report Please consider the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) July 2014 Employment Report. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, retail trade, and construction. Click on Any Chart in this Report to See a Sharper Image Unemployment Rate - Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Employment January 2003 - July 2014 click on chart for sharper image Nonfarm Employment Change from Previous Month by Job Type Hours and Wages Average weekly hours of all private employees has been flat for five months at 34.5 hours. Average weekly hours of all private service-providing employees was flat at 33.3 hours. Average hourly earnings of private workers rose $0.04 to $20.61. Average hourly earnings of private service-providing employees rose $0.03 to $20.39. For discussion of income distribution, please see What's "Really" Behind Gross Inequalities In Income Distribution? Birth Death Model Starting January, I dropped the Birth/Death Model charts from this report. For those who follow the numbers, I keep this caution: Do not subtract the reported Birth-Death number from the reported headline number. That approach is statistically invalid. Should anything interesting arise in the Birth/Death numbers, I will add the charts back. Table 15 BLS Alternate Measures of Unemployment click on chart for sharper image Table A-15 is where one can find a better approximation of what the unemployment rate really is. Notice I said "better" approximation not to be confused with "good" approximation. The official unemployment rate is 6.2%. However, if you start counting all the people who want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6. U-6 is much higher at 12.2%. Both numbers would be way higher still, were it not for millions dropping out of the labor force over the past few years. Labor Force Factors Discouraged workers stop looking for jobs People retire because they cannot find jobs People go back to school hoping it will improve their chances of getting a job People stay in school longer because they cannot find a job Disability and disability fraud Were it not for people dropping out of the labor force over the past several years, the unemployment rate would be well over 9%. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Watch Live at 2:35 ET: President Obama Makes a Statement

Here's what's going on at the White House today.         DAILY SNAPSHOT Friday, August 01, 2014           Happening Now Watch President Obama Live at Today's Briefing At 2:35 p.m. ET today, the President will deliver a statement from the Press Briefing Room here at the White House. TUNE IN LIVE         Featured The First Time This Has Happened Since 1997: It's the first Friday of the month, so you know what that means. (Or you might not, that's ok too.) It's Jobs Day, and we saw another month of encouraging trends in the labor market. In July, the private sector gained 198,000 jobs, and total job growth has exceeded 200,000 jobs for six straight months -- the first time that has happened since 1997. And, we've seen 53 straight months of job growth, which is the longest streak on record. This is good news, but we've still got work to do. See how the economy is continuing to improve as a result of the President's policies.       Top Stories Raw Video: The President Takes a Walk Down Main Street On Wednesday, before the President left Kansas City, he took a walk down Main Street (literally), spending time with store owners, touring an antique watch shop, and chatting with customers at a local coffee shop. And we got it all on video. READ MORE President Obama in Kansas City: "Let's Get Some Work Done Together" In the middle of meeting with everyday folks and chowing down on BBQ in Kansas City, the President spoke to a fired-up crowd about the progress our economy has made since he took office and how Republican obstructionism in Congress is hurting hard-working Americans. READ MORE Dan Pfeiffer: "House Republicans Just Voted to Sue President Obama" On Wednesday, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted to sue the President for using his executive authority. Instead of voting on raising the minimum wage or reforming our broken immigration system, Republicans in Congress are wasting valuable time and taxpayer dollars. READ MORE       Today's Schedule All times are Eastern Time (ET) 2:35 PM: The President delivers a statement WATCH LIVE 3:45 PM: The President holds a bill signing   Facebook     Twitter    |   More Ways to Engage Did Someone Forward This to You? Sign Up for Email Updates This email was sent to e0nstar1.blog@gmail.com Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy Please do not reply to this email. Contact the White House The White House • 1600 Pennsylvania Ave NW • Washington, DC 20500 • 202-456-1111