Seth's Blog : The forever recession (and the coming revolution)

The forever recession (and the coming revolution)

There are actually two recessions:

The first is the cyclical one, the one that inevitably comes and then inevitably goes. There's plenty of evidence that intervention can shorten it, and also indications that overdoing a response to it is a waste or even harmful.

The other recession, though, the one with the loss of "good factory jobs" and systemic unemployment--I fear that this recession is here forever.

Why do we believe that jobs where we are paid really good money to do work that can be systemized, written in a manual and/or exported are going to come back ever? The internet has squeezed inefficiencies out of many systems, and the ability to move work around, coordinate activity and digitize data all combine to eliminate a wide swath of the jobs the industrial age created.

There's a race to the bottom, one where communities fight to suspend labor and environmental rules in order to become the world's cheapest supplier. The problem with the race to the bottom is that you might win...

Factories were at the center of the industrial age. Buildings where workers came together to efficiently craft cars, pottery, insurance policies and organ transplants--these are job-centric activities, places where local inefficiences are trumped by the gains from mass production and interchangeable parts. If local labor costs the industrialist more, he has to pay it, because what choice does he have?

No longer. If it can be systemized, it will be. If the pressured middleman can find a cheaper source, she will. If the unaffiliated consumer can save a nickel by clicking over here or over there, then that's what's going to happen.

It was the inefficiency caused by geography that permitted local workers to earn a better wage, and it was the inefficiency of imperfect communication that allowed companies to charge higher prices.

The industrial age, the one that started with the industrial revolution, is fading away. It is no longer the growth engine of the economy and it seems absurd to imagine that great pay for replaceable work is on the horizon.

This represents a significant discontinuity, a life-changing disappointment for hard-working people who are hoping for stability but are unlikely to get it. It's a recession, the recession of a hundred years of the growth of the industrial complex.

I'm not a pessimist, though, because the new revolution, the revolution of connection, creates all sorts of new productivity and new opportunities. Not for repetitive factory work, though, not for the sort of thing ADP measures. Most of the wealth created by this revolution doesn't look like a job, not a full time one anyway.

When everyone has a laptop and connection to the world, then everyone owns a factory. Instead of coming together physically, we have the ability to come together virtually, to earn attention, to connect labor and resources, to deliver value.

Stressful? Of course it is. No one is trained in how to do this, in how to initiate, to visualize, to solve interesting problems and then deliver. Some see the new work as a hodgepodge of little projects, a pale imitation of a 'real' job. Others realize that this is a platform for a kind of art, a far more level playing field in which owning a factory isn't a birthright for a tiny minority but something that hundreds of millions of people have the chance to do.

Gears are going to be shifted regardless. In one direction is lowered expectations and plenty of burger flipping. In the other is a race to the top, in which individuals who are awaiting instructions begin to give them instead.

The future feels a lot more like marketing--it's impromptu, it's based on innovation and inspiration, and it involves connections between and among people--and a lot less like factory work, in which you do what you did yesterday, but faster and cheaper.

This means we may need to change our expecations, change our training and change how we engage with the future. Still, it's better than fighting for a status quo that is no longer. The good news is clear: every forever recession is followed by a lifetime of growth from the next thing...

Job creation is a false idol. The future is about gigs and assets and art and an ever-shifting series of partnerships and projects. It will change the fabric of our society along the way. No one is demanding that we like the change, but the sooner we see it and set out to become an irreplaceable linchpin, the faster the pain will fade, as we get down to the work that needs to be (and now can be) done.

This revolution is at least as big as the last one, and the last one changed everything.

 

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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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• Growing Isolation in Germany as Merkel's Allies Abandon Her; Polls Show 75% of Germans Oppose More Bailouts; Clock Ran Out of Time
• Government and the Power to Issue Fiat Currency Out of Thin Air
• Harrisburg Heads for Receivership in New Pennsylvania Bill; Crisis Will Linger Because State Legislature is Clueless
• Merkel Prepares Market for Bigger Haircuts; Split opens Over Greek Bail-Out Terms; Needs vs. Fantasies
• Brazil Seeks to Tax Derivatives; No BRIC Decoupling
• Chris Christie Mulls Presidential Run; Independents Key to Election, and Christie can Rally Independents

Growing Isolation in Germany as Merkel's Allies Abandon Her; Polls Show 75% of Germans Oppose More Bailouts; Clock Ran Out of Time Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:53 PM PDT German Chancellor Angela Merkel will likely survive a key vote on Thursday to expand the EFSF bailout fund, but passage now depends on support from the opposition. Even more telling is the increasing isolation sentiment in Germany. Polls show shows three-quarters of Germans are against the expanded European rescue fund that's subject to Thursday's vote. So, who is it that politicians represent? The Wall Street Journal reports Germans Reconsider Ties to Europe When German lawmakers vote Thursday on whether to put more money into Europe's bailout fund—a step many investors see as essential to prevent a market panic—several conservative deputies, including Wolfgang Bosbach, a prominent champion of European integration, are expected to vote "no." Mr. Bosbach, a high-ranking conservative in Ms. Merkel's Christian Democratic Union, has recently become an outspoken critic of the bailout strategy. "The first medicine didn't work, and now we are simply doubling the dose," said the lanky Mr. Bosbach of the Greek debt crisis. "My fear is that when the big bang happens, it won't just be us who will have to pay but generations hereafter." The lawmaker rebellion underscores a broader shift among Germans about their nation's role in Europe since the crisis erupted nearly two years ago. While the Thursday vote is expected to pass, and a vast majority of Germans continue to feel a strong, historical commitment to Europe, with a common currency as its anchor, many have grown doubtful of whether it's worth the ever-growing cost of saving the euro. A poll for national German broadcaster ZDF earlier this month shows three-quarters of Germans are against the expanded European rescue fund that's subject to Thursday's vote. The measures before German parliament today would nearly double the main euro-zone's bailout fund's lending capacity to €440 billion ($595 billion) and allow the fund to buy sovereign bonds in the open market. Germany's contribution to the new, expanded rescue loan package is €211 billion, still less than half the €500 billion it pledged to bail out its banks in 2008. But many see the European Central Bank's moves to buy billions of euros in low-grade government bonds of southern European countries as another sign that European institutions are slipping away from them. Even more unpalatable is the prospect of making the euro zone collectively liable for its members' debts, as a growing chorus of European officials have recently urged. Many argue so-called euro bonds, which Ms. Merkel has steadfastly opposed, are the bulwark to relieve financial pressure on debt-ridden members and underpin the euro zone's full fiscal union. But to Germans, it would mean relinquishing their hard-won low borrowing rates to pay for the largess of more free-wheeling members. "Ultimately the euro-bond issue will come to a head, and Ms. Merkel will have an impossible dilemma," says one senior German coalition lawmaker. "If she goes back to the German people with [euro bonds], she is out. If she doesn't, she will be a very lonely person in Europe." Merkel's Clock Ran Out of Time The vote in Germany is a foregone conclusion, but it is the end of the line for Merkel, whether or not she needs opposition votes for passage. She is taking a stance 75% of the nation does not agree with, and that stance is guaranteed not to work. The German court nixed Eurobonds, permanent bailout funds, and leveraged use of the EFSF. Greece is going to need more and there is no more to give. Time will not improve this situation but it's a moot point. The clock ran out. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Government and the Power to Issue Fiat Currency Out of Thin Air Posted: 28 Sep 2011 01:42 PM PDT Here is an excellent video on fiat currencies by my friend Dominic Frisby at Frisby's Bulls and Bears. Bear in mind we are in credit based economy, and credit markets can override the Fed's ability to create inflation, assuming of course a definition of inflation that encompasses credit. Please see Yes Virginia, U.S. Back in Deflation; Inflation Scare Ends; Hyperinflationists Wrong Twice Over for a discussion. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Harrisburg Heads for Receivership in New Pennsylvania Bill; Crisis Will Linger Because State Legislature is Clueless Posted: 28 Sep 2011 12:01 PM PDT The state of Pennsylvania continues to take half-ass measures in resolving the budget crisis in Harrisburg. New legislation fails to address two badly needed action items. Please consider Harrisburg Might Get a Receiver Thanks to Pennsylvania Bill Harrisburg may become Pennsylvania's first municipality to fall under receivership. The City Council in July and August rejected fiscal rescue blueprints from consultants hired by the state and Mayor Linda Thompson. Today, The state House of Representatives voted 185-9 for a bill that would let Republican Governor Tom Corbett name a receiver. The Senate still must consider the plan. The capital city of 49,500 faces a debt burden five times its general-fund budget because of an overhaul and expansion of a trash-to-energy incinerator, which doesn't generate enough revenue to cover the obligations. It avoided defaulting on general-obligation bonds in September and last year by getting advances on state aid. The vote "sends a strong message" to elected officials in Harrisburg and elsewhere not to dawdle with recovery plans, Representative Glenn Grell said on the House floor. Grell, of Hampden Township in Cumberland County, and Senator Jeffrey E. Piccola of Susquehanna Township in Dauphin County, both Republicans, are pushing the legislation. The bill would allow Corbett to declare a fiscal emergency in Harrisburg and name a receiver who would develop a recovery plan. The manager, technically appointed by the Commonwealth Court and paid by the state, would have the power to implement the steps, such as selling assets, hiring advisers and suspending the authority of elected officials who interfere. Unlike in Michigan, the receiver wouldn't be able to change union contracts. There is no point in reading further. The facts as presented show why the crisis will linger on and on, at taxpayer expense. Harrisburg is bankrupt. It's time to recognize that simple fact, announce bankruptcy, and force the bondholders to take a loss. Without power to force changes in union contracts and pensions, any new receiver will have not one but two hands tied behind his back in putting Harrisburg back on a path towards fiscal sanity. Strong Message Legislature is Clueless Representative Glenn Grell said "the vote sends a strong message to elected officials in Harrisburg". Actually it sends a strong message the Pennsylvania legislature is clueless about what needs to be done. Harrisburg has numerous problems, and untenable union wages and benefits are a huge part of that problem. Once again, it's time to stop Fantasyland dreams and Take The Loss. Bondholders and unions alike have losses to take. Until they do, the crisis in Harrisburg will linger on. For needed loss-taking in Europe, please see Merkel Prepares Market for Bigger Haircuts; Split opens Over Greek Bail-Out Terms; Needs vs. Fantasies. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Merkel Prepares Market for Bigger Haircuts; Split opens Over Greek Bail-Out Terms; Needs vs. Fantasies Posted: 28 Sep 2011 09:37 AM PDT French and German banks know a good deal when they have one. They have one in the 21% haircuts they "voluntarily" accepted. The problem is even 50% haircuts are likely insufficient. The bondholders are upset at this reality. Tough. Yahoo! Finance reports Merkel says Greek bailout terms may be changed German Chancellor Angela Merkel hinted that the second Greek bailout package might have to be renegotiated amid increasing market speculation Wednesday that European leaders want to force private holders of Greek bonds to take bigger losses. Merkel didn't rule out altering the terms to the euro109 billion ($148 billion) package, saying the decision must be based on how Greece's debt inspectors, the so-called troika, judge Athens' recent austerity efforts. "So we must now wait for what the troika finds out and what it tells us: do we have to renegotiate or do we not have to renegotiate?" she said in an interview with Greece's ERT television Tuesday night. Merkel added that she "cannot anticipate the result of the troika." Greece "will not get back on its feet without a serious reduction in debt," said Ottmar Issing, a former chief economist of the European Central Bank, who has served as an adviser to Merkel in the past. Athens needs to see its debt cut "at least 50 percent, probably more," Issing was quoted by Germany's Stern magazine. Germany's banking association insisted there was no need to renegotiate the terms of the second bailout package. Banks in Germany and France are among the biggest holders of Greek bonds. A default by Greece or another country would send shock waves through the global economy, particularly in Europe, authorities fear. Banks would suffer such large losses on government bonds they hold that they would cut off credit to the wider economy and cause a new, sharper recession. Needs vs. Fantasies The banking industry says there is no "need" to change the terms. Of course there is a need to change the terms. Banks are not going to be paid back what they are owed. Let's not confuse "needs" with pie-in-the-sky fantasies. Split Opens over Greek Bail-Out Terms The Financial Times reports Split opens over Greek bail-out terms A split has opened in the eurozone over the terms of Greece's second €109bn bail-out with as many as seven of the bloc's 17 members arguing for private creditors to swallow a bigger writedown on their Greek bond holdings, according to senior European officials. The divisions have emerged amid mounting concerns that Athens' funding needs are much bigger than estimated just two months ago. They threaten to unpick a painfully negotiated deal reached with private sector bond holders in July. While hardliners in Germany and the Netherlands are leading the calls for more losses to be imposed on the private sector, France and the European Central Bank are fiercely resisting any such move. They fear re-opening the bond deal could spark renewed selling of shares in European banks, which have significant holdings of Greek and other peripheral eurozone debt. Senior European said there was significant division over the move to re-open the bondholders' deal, which could trigger a bigger and earlier restructuring of Greek debt. Even within Germany, officials are split over whether to press for a bigger "haircut" for private sector creditors. Under the terms of the July bail-out, bondholders agreed to trade about €135bn in bonds that come due through 2020 for new, European Union-backed bonds that would not be repaid for decades. This deal implied a haircut of 21 per cent for bondholders, but many German officials say they were forced to agree a deal that was too beneficial for the banks. Take the Loss One look at the DAX, or European bank stocks suggests major shock waves have already been felt. More are coming. However, the shock waves would have been far less had banks, the ECB, and the EU accepted realistic losses two years ago and simply let Greece default. Losses will now be four to 10 times as large, depending on how much more money everyone is willing to throw at the problem. Thus, upping the ante to shelter bondholders from losses was exactly the wrong thing to do then, and it is still the wrong thing to do today. Barry Ritholtz had an excellent article on this theme just today: Take The Loss. The fear should have been in hiding losses not taking them. Unfortunately, I expect some wishy-washy compromise will up the losses one reportedly "final time" to 30-35% not the needed 60% or so. It won't work. Hiding losses by not reporting them only makes matters worse. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Brazil Seeks to Tax Derivatives; No BRIC Decoupling Posted: 28 Sep 2011 08:38 AM PDT In response to Europe Plans to Tax Stock and Bond Transactions .1%, Derivatives .01% Despite US Objections; Expect More Crashes Should it Pass I received a response from a reader in Brazil about BRIC decoupling (more specifically, the lack thereof). LTBR writes ... Hi Mish, Brazil is also trying to push a tax on derivatives. However, the opposition is faking outrage. They will pass, for sure, because those crook politicians never met a tax they didn't like. I think that Brazil is freaking out, because they know that China's economy is about to crash. I've noticed that lately Brazil is trying to collect money with taxing about anything, fearing that China's bubble and the commodities party is ending. For instance, Brazil just proposed a 30% tax (IPI) on any car mfr. with less than 80% of its parts made in Brazil. China's auto mfr. PAC has given up on opening a factory in Brazil, after this special tax nonsense was announced. Other companies are trying the judicial system to cancel this tax. Keep in mind that import cars in Brazil cost already 3 times more than at its country of origin. And the place is full of imports, since it's a land of wannabes who love to live beyond their means. Another problem with taxing derivatives, which you have mentioned, is that exporters use it to hedge their exports. Since Brazil is a large net exporter, that tax will eat a big chunk of exporter's profits. All to fund welfare for buying votes from the poor or to transfer taxes to their political parties, unions, and corporate cronies. Here's the link to the article about taxing derivatives in Brazil, if you want to read on Google Translate: Opposition wants to hear before voting Mantega IOF derivatives Regards, Long time Brazilian reader with degree from American B-School. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Chris Christie Mulls Presidential Run; Independents Key to Election, and Christie can Rally Independents Posted: 28 Sep 2011 12:29 AM PDT Over the past week or so I have seen several stories about the possibility of Chris Christie running for president. Here is one such story from today from CBS News Political Hotsheet: Chris Christie confidante says N.J. gov. mulling WH run New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has repeatedly said he is not running for president. But one of his predecessors who has known Christie for decades says he is now at least thinking about it. Former governor Tom Kean told the National Review Online that the chatter around Christie's change of heart in recent days is "real." Republicans are clamoring for a candidate who will be able to energize the base and beat President Obama in a general election. Erstwhile front-runner Mitt Romney is widely seen as one of the strongest Republican candidates in a general election, but the most conservative parts of the party are less than thrilled with a candidate who was once governor of left-leaning Massachusetts. Christie, as governor of Democratic New Jersey, may run into the same problem with Republican primary voters, who tend to be have the most conservative views of the party. In New Jersey, however, Christie's approval rating has risen sharply since he signed into a law a dramatic revamp of pension and health benefits for state workers in June. About 54 percent of voters in his state now approve of his performance as governor, while 36 percent disapprove, according to a poll released Tuesday by Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind. That's a 10 point increase from the 44 percent approval in May, when about 44 percent also disapproved, and the highest approval rating for Christie since taking office after ousting former Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine in 2009. Kean Confirms Christie Boomlet: 'It's Real' The National Review Online reports Kean Confirms Christie Boomlet: 'It's Real' Former New Jersey governor Tom Kean, who has known Chris Christie since he was a teenager and remains an informal adviser, tells National Review Online that the governor is "very seriously" considering a presidential bid. "It's real," Kean says. "He's giving it a lot of thought. I think the odds are a lot better now than they were a couple weeks ago." Christie remains undecided, Kean says, but is listening closely to pleas from party leaders. The chance for a "Jersey guy" to rise, Kean says, is not something Christie has sought. But now, with the field up for grabs, he is actively mulling a late entry. "More and more people are talking to him," Kean says. "He's getting appeals from major figures around the country." Kean, for his part, is also encouraging the first-term Republican to jump in. "He is the best speaker I may have ever heard in politics," he tells me. "In an era when most people suspect that politicians read polls and then tell you what they think, people don't believe he's that kind of a fellow," Kean says. "He tells you what he thinks, period. We like that around here." "A lot of people are not satisfied with the field," Kean says. "I know he's getting advice from all sides." In coming days, "he's not going to tease anybody." If circumstances do change — and Kean makes no predictions — "he's not going to hide it." Unsatisfactory Field I'm not satisfied with the field. I think it's safe to say independents in general are not satisfied with the field. I back Ron Paul but do not think Paul can win. Furthermore, I may write in Ron Paul even if he does not win the nomination. That is how much I dislike the rest of the Republican field. My position was the same in 2008. I could not stomach a McCain/Palin ticket. I wrote in Ron Paul. However, if Christie is the nominee, I will do whatever I can to help the Governor. In spite of long-odds Christie has helped turn the state of New Jersey around. Moreover, he has above a 50% rating in spite of the fact that he has stepped on many unions toes. I see no indication that Christie is beholden to banks, and he certainly is not beholden to unions. Independents Need Someone to Rally Around It is highly likely independents will swing the next election. They voted overwhelmingly for Obama in 2008 and abandoned Democrats in the mid-term elections. Can independents rally around Mitt Romney? I can only speak for myself, not independents in general. I can't support Romney. Nor can I support Perry who has made an enormous number of gaffes recently, anyone of which can sink him in the general election were he to win the nomination. On the other hand, Chris Christie is honest, does not mince words, is not beholden to anyone and has a tremendous fiscal track record in New Jersey. If he can stay away from the political hotbed issues of abortion by taking a modest, middle-of-the-road stance, that too would help him with independents. Light My Fire The Republican nominee will capture the far-Right vote. They are not going to vote for Obama, nor will they stay away from the election. Thus, it would be a serious mistake for Republicans to rally around a far-Right platform when it may cost them dearly with independents. A fiscal conservative like Christie can light a fire with independents in a way the other Republicans can't. Battle for the Middle Not much is known about Christie on other than Fiscal issues. He can easily put together a platform that would appeal to everyone but unions, the far-Left, and the far-Right. The far-Right will vote for Christie 8-days a week. The far-Left and unions will vote for Obama 8-days a week. The middle, not the Left or Right is where the battle will be won or lost. All we need now is a decision from Christie to throw his hat in the ring with a strong, fiscally conservative message, and middle-of-the-road ideas elsewhere. If Christie does that, he will not only ignite enthusiasm, he will win the nomination and the general election as well. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

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Damn Cool Pics

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• Dubstep Dance to "Pumped Up Kicks" is Awesome
• The World's Largest Lightsaber Fight
• Dante's Inferno Sand Sculpture

Dubstep Dance to "Pumped Up Kicks" is Awesome Posted: 27 Sep 2011 11:22 PM PDT Marquese Scott moves in a way that looks inhuman. How does he do it? If you're too busy to watch the whole video, skip ahead to the 4 minute mark.

The World's Largest Lightsaber Fight Posted: 27 Sep 2011 11:10 PM PDT Star Wars fans from all over the East Coast crossed lightsabers at New York City's Washington Square Park for what might be the world's largest lightsaber battle. Newmindspace invited Jedi and Sith from all over to meet up at the NYC park, asking only that each participant choose either Jedi or Sith, and arranged a massive fight. They provided sabers to anyone who showed up unequipped. The group expected 500 fans to show up, but that number quickly doubled by the time of the showdown. The Sith took one side, the Jedi another, and then they charged. The end result looks like nothing so much as a mid-1990s rave, complete with a slew of glowsticks. Check out a few of the images and video. Source: io9

Dante's Inferno Sand Sculpture Posted: 27 Sep 2011 10:54 PM PDT In November 2008, New York artist Ray Villafane traveled to Jesolo, Italy to take part in their yearly sand sculpting project. Though Ray had never sculpted in sand, he took the opportunity that was offered to create his first sand sculptures. He did so exceptional, that he was invited back the following summer where he participated in bringing "Dante's Inferno" to the beach and was given the most pivotal sculpture of the show. Source: pondly

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Accidental Noindexation Recovery Strategy and Results

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Accidental Noindexation Recovery Strategy and Results Posted: 28 Sep 2011 04:16 AM PDT Posted by chadburgess This post was originally in YOUmoz, and was promoted to the main blog because it provides great value and interest to our community. The author's views are entirely his or her own and may not reflect the views of SEOmoz, Inc. "I know before the cards are even turned over..." - Mike McDermott, Rounders When Mike McD was called by Teddy KGB in a huge No-Limit Hold'em poker pot, he didn't have to see his opponents hand to know that KGB had two aces, the only hand in the deck that could beat his nines full of aces (if you have seen Rounders, feel free to skip over the video below, if not, you probably should get on that). This was the same feeling I had when we got "SERP a DERPd" via accidental noindexation of 9,000 of our most important pages....   Contents: What happens when pages are accidentally noindexed Tactics for getting pages into the Google index quickly How noindex impacts SERP rankings (note that I am focusing on Google in this post)  Background: I am an in-house SEO and customer acquisition marketer at SeatGeek.com, a NYC tech startup. Our site is a ticket search engine for sports concerts and theater tickets (i.e. "a Kayak for event tickets"). On Monday 8/1, I was searching Google for 'mets tickets' and saw that SeatGeek had slipped from page 1. Worse, we weren't even on page 2. I tried a few more queries that I knew we should be on page 1 for and still nothing. My heart was beating. Had we been Panda'd? It didn't make sense, but I was panicked. Then it hit me. I opened up our New York Mets page, but, just like Mike Mcd, I knew before I even clicked view source...content="noindex" on all of our product pages. I have only been doing SEO for ~2 years, so I had never directly experienced an accidental noindex situation. So even as I read reports of these not having an impact on rankings and knew this wasn't as bad as an accidental canonicalization problem, I couldn't help but envision the worst case scenario...9,000 of our most important conversion driving pages would be out of the index for weeks and would not have their same rank when they got back in.  What happens when pages are accidentally noindexed This is a chart of incoming organic traffic to one of our key pages right when the noindex hit. Obviously organic traffic ceased to exist. Interestingly though, Google Analytics still reported some traffic to these pages. This might be the one instance where having less frequent crawl frequency can be beneficial (assuming bandwidth isn't an issue). The pages that got noindexed are recrawled every 4-6 days, which would have given us a buffer if we caught this sooner. Unfortunately, Google waited until Saturday to crawl these pages and we didn't catch the problem until Monday.  Reindexation Plan and Tactics: The first course of action was to remove the noindex tags, which one of our pop star engineers did within five minutes. This was right around the time I sent out my first plan of action email which I have included below in case you ever have to write the same email:  All, So I was doing a daily scan of SERP positions and started noticing team band pages had dropped. At first I thought we got Panda'd, but it looks like the noindex tags that are supposed to be applied to search pages and filtered navigation recently got pushed into production, but because those pages only get reindexed every 3-6 days there was some delay in the traffic impact, which you can see if you filter by team/band pages. We are currently: Noindex already removed in production Writing blog posts that link to all major sports teams to get these reindexed (more difficult for bands) Launching social media campaigns to support this cause Forcing update on .xml sitemap (hopefully to help with concerts issue) Investigating additional techniques Going to look into the current traffic impact / which pages got impacted the most (hopefully some deeper artist type pages never got recrawled before the fix) http://www.webmasterworld.com/webmaster/3601620.htm Here's to hoping this is true "My experience is that "noindex" is quite harmless when it comes to ranking. As soon as you change it to "index", the pages should pop up at nearly the same positions in the SERPs as where they were." I will keep you all posted. -Chad  Even if rankings would come back, we wanted this to happen as quickly as possible. I had a plan, and fortunately some great interns to help me out. So this is what we did (excuse any repetition from the email)... Removed noindex tags We ran social giveaways and campaigns generating strategic social shares Internally, we set up a Google doc with our most important product pages as rows, and everyone's names as columns and had people +1 and Tweet various pages from the list, checking off as we worked through it (read more from Rand about the power of social shares for SEO) Wrote / published blog content that linked off to all the pages that had been removed from the index Examples of the previous bulletpoint: NFL 2011-12 Season: Average Ticket Prices, Weekly MLB Price Rankings, A Sneak Peek at NBA Ticket Prices, First Look at NHL Prices and 3473 Artists Ranked By SeatGeek's Popularity Score (yes I know Google doesn't go beyond ~+100 links per page...) Used our relationships with NY Daily News and Business Insider to get some content up linking back to our most important pages Resubmitted our XML sitemap index file via Google Webmaster Tools Manually submitted select pages via Google Webmaster tools 'Submit to index' feature All of the above was completed within one hour of us discovering the issue, except for the guest posts and contest which were done over the next 1-2 days. And then we waited...  Reindexation Metrics: It took 1-2 days for our most important pages to get back into the index, which we were really happy with. Some of our deeper / less important pages took up to 5 days to come back or longer in some cases. Fortunately we had followed advice from other Mozzers and introduced multiple XML sitemaps earlier in the year with all our product pages in one XML sitemap we were able to easily track indexation of these pages via Google Webmaster Tools. Indexation and traffic were on their way back up by the next day, but as you can tell from the graph below traffic didn't return to previous levels to about 2-3 days from when the noindex tag was removed.   Rankings Impact of Noindexation: Now let's look at how this impacted our SERP rankings. The example above, was a truly interesting case because our Mets page returned to the index the night of the fix and I emailed my bosses to check it out as a good example of a recovering page, but by the time we got into work the next morning it had left the index again and I looked like a clown shoe. Fortunately, the page came back (again...) into the index the next day and was back up to its previous ranking by the end of the week. This is an example of a trend I noticed that many pages would come back into the index first and then return to ranking for their target terms a day or so later. The example below is one where we returned to the index but without the same rank as we had before. There isn't really a way to tell if this was impacted at all by the noindex situation, I suspect it was just a random Google dance related to the more frequent shakeups I have seen in event "tickets" related queries. Overall, our page 1 SERP positions have completely returned to prior levels. Conclusions: If you accidentally noindex pages on your site, of course they will stop getting traffic from organic search, but this will be dependent on the crawl rate of the pages (in our case it took ~5 days for them to drop out of the index) and 2-3 days for them to return to normal levels If you have a blog that gets crawled quickly, use that as a tool to help drive spiders back to the pages that were noindexed with strategic internal linking (of course wait until you have removed the noindex tag) Take advantage of friends & family to help with social shares and pump this up with a social giveaway Use Google Webmaster tools: 1) XML sitemap resubmit 2. Manual 'Submit to Index' 3. Sitemap indexation tracking You should have Multiple XML sitemaps set up into logical buckets for indexation tracking to faciliate the indexation tracking mentioned above Although your rankings might see short-term "dancing", an accidental noindex will not have a negative impact on them Lastly, don't be too worried, just follow some of the tactics above and you should be back in the index with the same rankings (have your boss email me if they are giving you crap - chad@seatgeek.com) Ok so that was probably too much information for just an accidental noindex situation, but when it happened to me it was scary and there wasn't a solid documentation on what to expect, so I wanted to produce this for the next person in my situation. Thanks for reading. Connect with me on Twitter if you are so inclined. Do you like this post? Yes No

Conquer Link Directory Best Practices for SEO Posted: 27 Sep 2011 02:11 PM PDT Posted by Cyrus Shepard Good news to all you link builders out there. SEOmoz just updated the PRO SEO Web Directory List. The long overdue update includes over 400 directories (up from 180) separated into three categories – Web, Local and Social. Wait, aren’t link directories dead? The practice of obtaining links from online directories has changed dramatically over the past 10 years. The stereotypes of the past are both true and dangerous. Spammy, low quality directories flood the lower cesspools of the Internet. An unbridled strategy of obtaining links from these non-discriminate directories can actually hurt your SEO. But times have changed, and strategies have become more evolved. Rethinking Directories We can move beyond thinking about directories as nothing more than paid links. For webmasters who use this approach, the links they obtain may not be worth the effort. An intelligent directory strategy provides depth to your SEO campaigns and offers tangible benefits including: A more diverse link profile Qualified referral traffic Citations for different vertical ranking algorithms Trust/Authority Signals … and, of course, the link. If you use different directories for different purposes, you can achieve this and more. A. Web Directories If links were easy for everyone, they would be less valuable for all of us. In general, the lower the bar of entry into any directory, the less inclusion into that directory is valued by the search engines. Some editorial directories raise the bar by charging a high cost of inclusion (Yahoo, Best of the Web) and being somewhat selective about whom they include. Three hundred dollars is a lot to pay for “inclusion review” but the truth is that for an established business, these links are like bread and butter. Other directories focus on a particular area, and thus are harder to get into. Examples of these “niche” directories include sites such as: Designflavr – CSS / Design Gallery Chart Porn – Infographics Blog Listing – Blog Directory Engineers Edge – Professional Directory Donations 4 Charity – Charities When pursuing directory links, keep the following tips in mind: Not every directory link is right for your site. Be selective and don't go for every link out there. Pace yourself. A good hint I got from Ian Lurie's Fat Free Guide is the 2:1 rule: for every two directory links you build, make sure to build one genuinely natural link. This helps to keep your link profile looking “natural”. Research. Understand where your link will be placed before you go after it. Check Google’s cache of the page to make sure they are indexing it. Large directories are often plagued by bad SEO, and not every link carries the weight it should. Seek relevancy. Ask yourself if this link has the potential to send qualified traffic to your site. Even if it's a small amount of traffic, it's probably worth the effort. I’d often rather have a hard-to-get link from a smaller niche site that an easy-to-get link from a larger well-known directory. B. Social Directories We know that the rise of Social SEO means sharing your content on sites like Facebook and Twitter can have a positive impact on your site’s traffic. But far too many people limit sharing to the big three (Twitter, Facebook and Google+) without considering other social sharing sites. The plethora of specialized social sites offer several benefits. 1. Member Profiles – Here’s a random profile from Mister Wong, a social bookmarking site. (thank you rgonzalo!) Mr. rgonzalo appears to be an authority on the site. Any content he shares will carry weight with the Mister Wong audience. 2. Content Publishing – Instead of a single website listing, social sites allow you to promote individual pieces of content. Using the above example, whenever Rgonzolo shares a URL, that content is likely linked to and noticed by search engines. 3. Increased participation increases visibility. You probably can’t participate in every social site out there. For web marketers, focusing on a few sites where you can devote your time, like Quora or CrunchBase, may be a good strategy. Those who become trusted authorities within their community are often rewarded with increased visibility of the content they share. C. Local Citation Directories Using local directories requires a shift in thinking for many webmasters, because it’s not always about the link, but about the citation. As David Mihm points out, the search engine’s local ranking algorithms work much differently than the search algorithms. For local SEO, search engines trust verifiable information from local portals such as Superpages and Judy’s Book. In most cases, if you are a verified business, gaining a citation from these sources is worth the effort and time. For more on local SEO directories, I highly recommend reading Mike Blumenthal and Andrew Shotland (and David Mihm, of course.) Directories = Diversity in Your Link Profile Just as you shouldn’t rely solely on directory links, you shouldn’t ignore them either. The goal is a diverse and blended link profile. Many webmasters have abandoned directory links due to the bad reputation they have gained over the past years. In truth, the variety and quality of the directories available today offer unique opportunities to expand your SEO reach and diversify your link profile in future-proof ways. I encourage you to check out the new PRO Directory list, it's an awesome resource. That said, any SEO can take advantage of the tactics in this post. Even with a curated list, using Web directories takes time and research. There are no shortcuts in link building, but the effort is worth it. Do you like this post? Yes No

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