|
|
How come there are no ants as big as Buicks (except in the movies)? Why not have a college with a million students (or ten)?
The physics and economics of a business determine whether it's the right size or not, whether it ought to get bigger or smaller. Starbucks, for example, was not the right size when it had 11 stores. That's too many stores for just one senior manager to handle, but not enough stores for centralized purchasing and marketing and organization. The cash flow from an eleven-store chain just doesn't easily connect to the staff requirments necessary to make it efficient.
A web company might do really well with thirty people and a few million dollars in revenue. To get to a thousand people (big enough for an IPO, say), it will need to transform both the product and the way it's sold. And in between the size it is now (which is working) and the size necessary for the public offering, there's a dead zone. This is a leap, not a stroll.
When I was growing my first successful business, I kept saying that one day I'd hire enough people that the people I was hiring could manage themselves. I went from having four direct reports to eleven before I realized that I wasn't going to be able to make the leap in scale that was going to be necessary to reach a comfortable size.
The same rule applies to independent musicians and comedians. At the solo level, you might be very happy making a living gigging at certain kinds of venues and being supported by a given audience. On the other hand, to support a manager, a band and a label, you can't just add a few more fans. You need different venues, different gigs, different revenue streams. If you can't (or don't want to) get to that new level, the new team isn't going to help, and it might destroy everything you've built.
It's worth charting both profit per employee and owner satisfaction against the number of people in the organization. Perhaps getting a little bigger isn't what you want, and it might not even be possible.
[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.
Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498 |
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Spain's Latest Bad-Bank, Non-Bank, Shell-Game Proposal; Can One-Winged Pigs Fly? Posted: 29 Apr 2012 11:13 PM PDT Spain has floated a number of bad-bank proposals recently, all of which were fundamentally flawed and doomed from the start. The latest shell-game proposal will supposedly take bank assets, put them in a non-bank, while forcing the banks to come up with sufficient capital to cover losses. Please consider Spain in Talks Over 'Bad Bank' Scheme Spain's government and its banks are discussing a new scheme to segregate problematic property loans into one or more asset management companies to relieve the burden on struggling lenders, according to officials and bankers.Can One-Winged Pigs Fly? If banks have sufficient loan-loss reserves then why don't they simply take the losses now? If they can raise capital now, then why don't they? If they cannot raise capital now, how will will they be able to do so in the process of moving the assets to a non-bank bank? This ludicrous plan has the flight capability of a one-winged pig. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 29 Apr 2012 08:09 PM PDT German chancellor Angela Merkel says the Merkozy treaty is not renegotiable. There is just one "slight" hitch: France has not signed the treaty and will not sign the treaty unless it is reworked says François Hollande who on May 6 will in all likelihood replace Nicolas Sarkozy as president of France. Moreover, Hollande's demands have gotten steeper and steeper as he inches closer to election. Please consider Hollande rebukes Berlin over crisis role François Hollande, the Socialist candidate for the French presidency, has claimed support from across Europe for his demand for a growth plan, saying it was not up to Germany to decide what action should be taken in the face of the eurozone crisis.Election Posturing? Many think this Hollande's antics are nothing but election posturing. I am not so sure. After all, what does Hollande have to lose by holding out? One thing is for sure, and that is eurobonds are not going to fly. Germany will not approve. Will Hollande settle for some meaningless "growth package"? Does it Matter What France Does? Short-term, the squabbles and finger-pointing will be far more entertaining if France refuses to sign the treaty. However, given the pathetic state of affairs in Greece, Spain, and Portugal, I fail to see why it really matters in the long-term whether France signs or not. The Eurozone will not last as-is in either case. That said, the bigger and deeper the squabbles, the sooner Germany many do the right thing for all involved: exit the Eurozone before it splinters led by the Club-Med countries. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
"Flying Piano" Costs Pentagon $1.5 Trillion Posted: 29 Apr 2012 10:08 AM PDT The Pentagon is about to waste $1.5 trillion, 38% of entire defense budget for a "virtual flying piano". That may sound preposterous, and it is. Unfortunately, it is also true. Foreign Policy Magazine discusses the sad saga of The Jet That Ate the Pentagon. This month, we learned that the Pentagon has increased the price tag for the F-35 by another $289 million -- just the latest in a long string of cost increases -- and that the program is expected to account for a whopping 38 percent of Pentagon procurement for defense programs, assuming its cost will grow no more.What Happened? You can actually blame president Clinton for this debacle. You can also blame every president since Clinton for stupid decisions upon stupid decisions and for not scrapping the program. The sad saga continues ... The design was born in the late 1980s in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), the Pentagon agency that has earned an undeserved reputation for astute innovation. It emerged as a proposal for a very short takeoff and vertical-landing aircraft (known as "STOVL") that would also be supersonic. This required an airframe design that -- simultaneously -- wanted to be short, even stumpy, and single-engine (STOVL), and also sleek, long, and with lots of excess power, usually with twin engines.The Dustbin Awaits Foreign Policy Magazine arrives at a rational conclusion: "There is only one thing to do with the F-35: Junk it. America's air forces deserve a much better aircraft, and the taxpayers deserve a much cheaper one. The dustbin awaits." Who supports the program? Defense Contractors Defense contractors are at the top of the list. For example, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems, and Pratt & Whitney support the F-35. Please consider this Lockheed Martin Propaganda. Establishing air superiority in today's complex global security climate requires the unprecedented capabilities and versatility that only the F-35 Lightning II can offer.To show you what incredible liars the defense industry has, Lockheed Martin has the gall to claim "economies of scale". Senator John McCain Supports the Boondoggle Senator John McCain wants F-35 training in Arizona at Luke Air Force Base. McCain was presented with the Wing Coin and Chairman's Award by Brig. Gen. Kurt Neubauer, 56th Fighter Wing Commander, and Charley Freericks, Chairman of Fighter Country Partnership's board of directors. The award was given in recognition of McCain being a champion of Luke during his years of public service.Spirit of Idaho The Spirit of Idaho organization hopes for training mission in Idaho. Idaho citizens are second to none in their enthusiastic support for the men and women of our Armed Forces and for their military missions. Hosting the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter would be a great way to continue that tradition while helping to secure the future of Mountain Home Air Force Base and Gowen Field. That's to say nothing of the thousands of great jobs and economic opportunities that having the F-35s here would create. C.L. "BUTCH" OTTER, GOVERNORGreed, Graft, Public Unions In general, states where defense contractors are located, states that will house or train the pilots want the jobs support the F-35. Those states, and politicians in those states do not give a rat's ass about how inept or costly the program is. The greed, graft, and waste are bad enough as it is. However, no amount of greed, gall, and waste is so great that unions will be satisfied with it. Please consider Lockheed F-35 workers ready for long strike, union says Unionized workers on strike against Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) over healthcare benefits and pensions are prepared for a long work stoppage, a top union official said on Tuesday as the company said it would be able to keep operations running.The F-35 program deserves to be scrapped because of cost overruns, inept design specs, and poor test results. Yet 3,650 union ingrates were arrogant enough to walk off the job demanding still more money to build this boondoggle. Every last one of them deserves to lose their job permanently. Let's hope this is the final straw that kills the program. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 |
It might be that low prices are the final refuge of the marketer who has run out of ideas and is left with nothing but a commodity.
Or it might be that organizing your business around lowering prices through efficiency, mass scale and smart choices is a powerful way to grow.
My guess is that both are true, but you better be really sure about which one you're choosing. Hint: doing the second one successfully is really quite difficult, so if all you're doing is writing a lower number on the pricetags, you're probably playing the first game.
[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
Don't want to get this email anymore? Click the link below to unsubscribe.
Your requested content delivery powered by FeedBlitz, LLC, 9 Thoreau Way, Sudbury, MA 01776, USA. +1.978.776.9498 |
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Giant Sucking Sound; Demand for Credit in Europe Collapses; Pritchard Misses the Boat Posted: 28 Apr 2012 06:40 PM PDT In a report on fixed income, David Owen, Chief European Financial Economist at Jefferies, notes that demand for credit in Europe has plunged. Owen asks Is it the supply or demand for credit that matters? 25 April 2012Europe Faces Japan Syndrome In reference to the above chart, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard at The Telegraph says Europe faces Japan syndrome as credit demand implodes Europe (minus Germany) looks more like post-bubble Japan each month.Live with the Consequences Indeed Pritchard conveniently ignores the fact that Japan is struggling right now to "live with the consequences" of numerous misguided monetary and fiscal stimulus efforts over 20 years. Japan has debt-to-GDP exceeding 200% and little to show for it. And Japan now has to live with the consequences of numerous misguided QE and stimulus proposals. Pritchard apparently wants more QE for Europe as if that would increase demand for credit. Note that two rounds of QE did not increase the demand for credit in the US as per my post The Real Consumer Credit Story: Virtually No Recovery in Revolving Credit, No Recovery in Non-Revolving Credit. Moreover, QE did not succeed in increasing the demand for credit in Japan over 20 years. So pray tell why would QE increase the demand for credit in Europe? More importantly, even if it did, would that be a good thing? European banks are already over-leveraged and under-capitalized so how the hell is providing cheap credit going to possibly do anything good? Would 0% interest rates help when they did not help Japan? Pritchard Misses the Boat Clearly Pritchard missed the boat on QE as well as the desirability of attempting to cram more credit down banks' throats when banks are over-leveraged and under-capitalized. Everyone wants to do something "but not now". While there is immense merit to not hiking taxes in a recession as Brussels forced on Greece, Spain, and Portugal, work rule and pension changes are badly needed. Pritchard's idea of raising capital instead of selling assets seems reasonable enough. However, nothing stops banks from doing that, at least in theory. Is practice another matter? Giant Sucking Sound William Wright discusses Tier-1 Capital requirements in A rough guide to surviving the great deleveraging of 2012 As if Basel III weren't enough of a headache, big European banks face a deadline of June 30 from the European Banking Authority to increase their core Tier-1 capital ratios to 9%, equivalent to raising €115bn in equity.Is That All Bad News? Wright concludes that is not all bad news. I agree, but for some different reasons. First Wright ... The Promised LandBanks Should Be Banks, Not Hedge Funds I do not believe that bigger is better and I am sick of the notion "too big to fail". Indeed, it most often means two things:
However, I do believe that banks should be banks, not hedge funds. To the extent that Basel III forces banks to shed trading activities and other non-tradition activities that banks now find themselves in, I view that as a good thing. I certainly agree with Wright regarding the need for "a realistic price for risk and credit", but "less competition" is certainly not the essence of well-formed free markets. My conclusion is that Wright does not understand the Fed's role in the creation of this mess or sound Austrian economic principles needed to fix it. We will indeed see a "a realistic price for risk and credit" if and only if we get rid of the Fed and end fractional reserve lending. Bigger banks are not the answer. By the way, Wright is not quite correct when he says "equity markets all but closed to banks". Let's phrase it properly: "equity markets all but closed to banks, on terms that banks want". Banks do not want shareholder dilution that comes with raising equity now. Bondholders do not want to take a hit either. Both should have happened already, but Bush, Obama, Congress, and the Fed acted in unison to prevent what desperately needed to happen. If Not Now, When? Pritchard thinks the time to raise Tier-1 Capital requirements is not now. OK When is it? 10 years from now or will Spain, Greece, and Italy still be too fragile? Japan shows the folly of waiting and depending on QE and fiscal stimulus to spawn inflation. Japan's Four-Pronged Approach
Did Japan succeed? In the case of Europe, there is also this "not-so-little" problem that Pritchard is extremely aware of yet mysteriously avoids every time he rails about the ECB not doing enough. I am obviously talking about the Euro. The LTRO increased leverage and risk on Spanish and Italian banks. QE is useless, something Pritchard should see. Reducing interest rates will shift imbalances to other countries, and may send oil and food prices higher, but it sure will not increase lending. Pritchard says "The ECB needs to do its own work, with proper energy." What "work" is that? Does any "work" make any sense? The first irony is Pritchard compares Europe to Japan, while essentially proposing the same four-pronged policy of failure followed by Japan. The second irony of Pritchard's column is that if Basel III moves forward the date of the inevitable breakup of the eurozone, that would be a good thing. A eurozone breakup would place Europe on a faster pace of ending the very "Japan Syndrome" that Pritchard rails against. Proper Energy Not only do I want to raise tier-1 capital requirements, I want to see a 100% gold-backed dollar, the end of fractional reserve lending, and the end of duration-mismatched lending (e.g. selling 5-year CDs and making mortgage loans for 30 years). Finally, lending of money that is supposed to be available on demand is fraudulent and must be stopped. I would be more than willing to phase those ideas in, but the time to start is now, not 10 years from now, under the misguided notion things will be better if only banks would lend more. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 28 Apr 2012 08:52 AM PDT Given major delays in retirement plans, 80 is the new 65 says CNN Money. A quarter of middle-class Americans are now so pessimistic about their savings that they are planning to delay retirement until they are at least 80 years old -- two years longer than the average person is even expected to live.Job Insecurity, Debt Weigh on Retirement Confidence, Savings The Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI) reports Job Insecurity, Debt Weigh on Retirement Confidence, Savings Executive Summary Points
What About the Expected Retirement of Nuclear Power Plants? I picked up links to the above articles in a surprising place. Dawn Stover, writing for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists compared the retirement of workers to the "The new retirement" for nuclear power plants Today, only 14 percent of Americans age 25 and older are confident that they will have enough money to retire comfortably, according to a recent survey by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI). Another recent survey, by Wells Fargo, reported that a quarter of middle-class Americans now plan to postpone retirement until they are at least 80 years old -- longer than many of them are expected to live. For Americans facing an uncertain financial future, 80 is the new 65.Crazy to Plan Retirement Past Life Expectancy? Dawn says "Is it crazy for someone to delay his retirement past the age he can expect to live". Sorry Dawn, that's not crazy at all. If you have insufficient money, you need to work. Some want to work because they like what they are doing. If you are seeking crazy, try these:
Economic Craziness If you are looking for more craziness, Dawn wants a "carbon tax to lift job prospects". Here is another crazy idea: Dawn talks of "forcing people to save more and protect retirement savings from the vagaries of the financial markets". Yikes! Nuclear Craziness One point I happen to agree with Dawn on. It's crazy to issue "40-year licenses for a process that creates a radioactive waste problem lasting tens of thousands of years" and have no plans for anything but the first 40 years. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
You are subscribed to email updates from Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 |
Damn Cool Pics |
Bohemian Rhapsody On The Way To School Posted: 27 Apr 2012 11:25 PM PDT |
Brass knuckles iPhone Case Can be Used for Self-Defense Posted: 27 Apr 2012 10:49 PM PDT iPhone can do all sorts of things thanks to its accessories, but iPhone cases can transform your iPhone and enhance its functionality as well, and today we're going to show you Brass knuckles iPhone case. This case transforms your iPhone into a self-defense weapon, or into brass knuckles to be precise. Although Brass knuckles iPhone case is designed to work as a self-defense weapon, it's probably not recommended to use it, because you might damage your phone while using it. Luckily for you, Brass knuckles iPhone case is just a concept for now, so you don't have to worry that you might hurt someone with it, or damage your iPhone while using it. Via: gadgetlite |
Posted: 27 Apr 2012 09:17 PM PDT In 2010, the United States Secret Service, Department of Education, and FBI released a report focusing on violence at institutions of higher education. By understanding these occurrences and learning from them, we can better protect ourselves in the future. Click image to see a larger version. Via: onlinecolleges |
You are subscribed to email updates from Damn Cool Pictures To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610 |