Central Perk

sâmbătă, 29 septembrie 2012

Weekly Address: It’s Time for Congress to Help Responsible Homeowners

Saturday, September 22, 2012

Weekly Address: It’s Time for Congress to Help Responsible Homeowners

In this week’s address, President Obama explains his administration’s steps to help the housing market, including giving responsible homeowners a chance to save thousands of dollars every year by refinancing their mortgages, but says we need Congress’s help to do more.

Watch President Obama's weekly address.

President Barack Obama tapes the Weekly Address in the Diplomatic Reception Room of the White House, Sept. 27, 2012. (Official White House Photo by Chuck Kennedy)

Seth's Blog : The wishing/doing gap

The wishing/doing gap

It would be great to be picked, to win the random lottery, to have a dream come true.

But when we rely on a wish to get where we want to go, we often sacrifice the effort that might make it more likely that we get what we actually need. Waiting for the prince to show up is a waste of valuable time, and the waiting distracts us from and devalues the hard work we might be doing instead.

If you can influence the outcome, do the work.

If you can't influence the outcome, ignore the possibility. It's merely a distraction.

• Email to a friend •

Notificări prin e-mail de la Instrumente Google pentru webmasteri

Stimate utilizator al Instrumentelor Google pentru webmasteri,

Ştim că este important pentru dvs. ca site-ul dvs. web să funcţioneze corect şi să fie performant. Pentru a fi la curent cu starea site-ului, dacă detectăm probleme grave sau importante cu privire la site-ul dvs., de acum înainte, veţi primi, în mod automat, un e-mail de notificare de la Instrumente Google pentru webmasteri.

Vă vom trimite e-mailuri numai pentru problemele pe care le considerăm ca având un impact semnificativ asupra funcţionării corecte a site-ului sau a performanţei acestuia în rezultatele căutării şi pentru care există acţiuni clare pe care le puteţi lua dvs. pentru a le remedia. De exemplu, vă vom trimite un e-mail dacă vom detecta programe malware pe site-ul dvs. sau dacă vom detecta o creştere semnificativă a erorilor la accesarea cu crawlere a site-ului dvs.

Pentru majoritatea site-urilor, aceste tipuri de probleme vor apărea rar. Dacă se întâmplă ca site-ul dvs. să aibă o problemă, limităm numărul de e-mailuri pe care le trimitem într-o anumită perioadă de timp, pentru a evita supraîncărcarea dosarului dvs. Mesaje primite.

Dacă nu doriţi să primiţi niciun e-mail de la Instrumente Google pentru webmasteri, puteţi modifica preferinţele de livrare a e-mailurilor la https://www.google.com/webmasters/tools/preferences.

Sperăm că veţi primi această schimbare ca pe o modalitate utilă de fi la curent cu problemele grave şi importante privind funcţionarea corectă a site-ului dvs.

Dacă doriţi mai multe informaţii despre Instrumentele Google pentru webmasteri şi despre crearea de site-uri web uşor de accesat de către Google, consultaţi http://www.google.com/webmasters.

Echipa Instrumente Google pentru webmasteri

Aţi primit acest anunţ obligatoriu de serviciu prin e-mail pentru a vă informa cu privire la modificări importante aduse contului dvs. Instrumente Google pentru webmasteri.

vineri, 28 septembrie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Japan PMI: Output and New Orders Contract Further
France Piles €20 Billion in Tax Hikes on Businesses and Wealthy
Can the Fed Fight Droids and Win? Apple's SIRI, Driverless Trucks, What's Next? Riveting Video: Are Droids Taking Our Jobs?

Japan PMI: Output and New Orders Contract Further

Posted: 28 Sep 2012 01:55 PM PDT

The global economy continues to weaken most everywhere you look. The focus of this post is Japan where the Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI™ shows Modest deterioration in operating conditions recorded in September.

Key points:

Output and new orders both down again, albeit at slower rates
Weaker underlying demand and strong yen impact on export orders
Charges cut at sharpest rate for over two years

Summary:

Operating conditions in Japan's manufacturing sector continued to worsen at a modest pace in September. Output and new orders both fell amid reports of a general stagnation of economic activity in domestic and overseas markets. Manufacturers continued to deplete inventories, while they made further sharp inroads into their work outstanding. Payroll numbers were little changed.

On the price front, companies responded to the weaker demand environment by discounting their charges to a greater degree. These efforts were aided in part by a further modest reduction in input prices.

After adjusting for seasonal factors, the headline Markit/JMMA Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) improved to a three-month high of 48.0 in September (August: 47.7) but, by remaining below the 50.0 no-change mark, again signalled a modest deterioration in operating conditions.

Production and new order volumes continued to decline on a monthly basis. Although slightly weaker than in August, rates of contraction remained marked, particularly in the investment goods sector.

Looking ahead, the widening rift between Japan and China over disputed islands certainly cannot help yet Voice of America reports there is No Sign of Progress in Dispute.

September 26, 2012
A bitter territorial dispute between China and Japan showed no signs of improvement Tuesday, as foreign ministers from both countries held high-level talks to ease tensions.

Relations have sunk to their lowest point in years, with anti-Japan protests breaking out across China and many Chinese refusing to buy Japanese-made goods. On Wednesday, Japanese automakers Toyota and Nissan said they are reducing production in China because of lessened demand.

[Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi] warned that bilateral relations could not "return to the track of sound and steady development" unless Japanese officials "take concrete measures to correct its mistakes."

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

France Piles €20 Billion in Tax Hikes on Businesses and Wealthy

Posted: 28 Sep 2012 10:15 AM PDT

It's now official. The top tax rate in France is now 75% for those who make over a million euros. Moreover, there is a new band of 45% for those who make over 150,000 euros. Don't forget the existing VAT on all purchases.

Europe is imploding and instead of fixing onerous work rules, France Hits Rich and Business to Slash Deficit.

Socialist President Francois Hollande unveiled higher levies on business and a 75-percent tax for the super-rich on Friday in a 2013 budget aimed at showing France has the fiscal rigor to remain at the core of the euro zone.

Of the total 30 billion euros of savings, around 20 billion will come from tax increases on households and companies, with tax rises already approved this year to contribute some 4 billion euros to revenues in 2013. The freeze on spending will contribute around 10 billion euros.

To the dismay of business leaders who fear an exodus of top talent, the government confirmed a temporary 75 percent super-tax rate for earnings over one million euros and a new 45 percent band for revenues over 150,000 euros.

Tough New Measures or Idiotic Measures?

The Financial Times reports France unveils tough budget measures

The measures announced on Friday included the controversial 75 per cent marginal tax rate on earned income above €1m a year, put in place for two years.

But, as promised by President François Hollande, France was largely spared the kinds of hefty cuts in public spending, pensions and salaries imposed in other eurozone countries struggling to contain their sovereign debt.

The official forecast of 0.8 per cent growth next year is above most independent forecasts, but Mr Pierre Moscovici [finance minister] said: "I am certain that if Europe steadies, then we are going to achieve this 0.8 per cent or more."

For starters, with government spending in France accounting for 55% of GDP, those are not "Tough Measures" those are idiotic measures. France needs to reduce government spending and ease work rules. Instead it has tightened pressure on companies laying off workers.

If Wishes Were Fishes

The French Finance minister is "certain that if Europe steadies, France will achieve 0.8 per cent growth or more". That is about as meaningful as this statement by me "I am certain that if I had a billion dollars, I would be a billionaire".

Simply put, neither Europe nor France is going to steady, but given France's growth is currently 0%, steady would not be enough anyway.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Can the Fed Fight Droids and Win? Apple's SIRI, Driverless Trucks, What's Next? Riveting Video: Are Droids Taking Our Jobs?

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 11:48 PM PDT

Today, a single farmer can produce as much goods as 100 farmers a half-century or less ago. That freed up labor for manufacturing and the service economy.

However, droids are now replacing humans in both manufacturing and services.

When does it stop?

Every time I go into a grocery store, I see more self-service checkout lanes and fewer manned ones. When RFID checkout comes into vogue, and it will quickly, an entire grocery basket will be scanned at once, and even fewer checkout clerks will be needed.

For a discussion of RFID, please see JCPenney to Eliminate All Checkout Clerks, Instead Using RFID Chips and Self-Checkout.

With each technological advance more and more goods and services are produced by fewer and fewer people. In isolation, that drives down costs, and in the process, standards-of-living have soared.

Because of ever-increasing productivity, it's easy to show that deflation is the natural state of affairs.

But what does that mean looking ahead? Will there be any jobs left? If so where? And what happens to the Fed's effort to prevent falling prices?

Riveting Video: Droids Taking Our Jobs

Let's start off with an entertaining, yet scary video by Andrew McAfee who asks Are droids taking our jobs?

Working Age Population vs. Projected Jobs

Notice the widening gap. Moreover McAfee states "If these predictions are accurate, that gap is not going to close. The problem is I do not think these predictions are accurate. In particular, I think my projection is way too optimistic. ... Because when I look around I think we ain't seen nothing yet when it comes to technology."

Video Discussion Points

Free Language Translation
Apple's SIRI
An article on Forbes about Apple, written by an algorithm (It's not decent it's perfect says McAfee). I tracked down the article: Forbes Earnings Preview: Apple, written by "Narrative Science".
Jeopardy: IBM Watson computer vs. Human who won 74 times in a row
If SIRI functionality increase according to Moore's Law (which it will) it will be sixteen times better than today, six years from now
Google Autonomous Car

Google Autonomous Toyota Prius Car

Managing the Transition to a Workerless Society

"There are 3 and a half million truck drivers and they will be impacted by this technology. .... We are going to transition into an economy that is very productive and just does not need a lot of human workers. Managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge that our society faces" says McAfee.

In spite of that gloom for 13 minutes, McAfee concludes on a positive note, quoting Freeman Dyson: "Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life, it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts, and of sciences."

Play the 14 minute video. It is riveting.

Can the Fed Fight Droids and Win?

The Fed wants to increase jobs and wages. It is fighting a battle it cannot possibly win. Forcing down interest rates while hoping to force up labor costs simply increases desire of companies to replace humans with droids.

We would get there anyway, as technology always improves. However, the Fed, by attempting to do the impossible, is actually speeding up the loss of jobs.

Living Wages

Who (besides the Fed and seriously misguided economists) does not like falling prices?

The problem with the "living wage" concept is not that wages are too low, but rather excess money from the Fed has driven up costs of goods and services.

People have been conditioned (by the Fed) to believe they need higher wages. What they really need is lower prices.

Technology, demographics, attitudes, and increasing lifespans, all mandate a need for lower, not higher prices.

If the Fed "succeeds" in further driving up prices, it will destroy the middle class because the technological rampage is sure to increase job losses for skilled labor, at least for the foreseeable future.

The Fed cannot defeat droids. Unfortunately, the Fed does not understand it is exacerbating the problem. Sadly, the Fed does not even understand the nature of the forces it is fighting.

Addendum:

It never fails. Someone misses obvious implications of what I said. One person ranted and raved that increased productivity is a good thing. Of course it is.

I specifically stated "standards-of-living have soared" as a result of technology. And of course that is a good thing.

My problem clearly is not technology and the deflationary effect that has on wages and prices (both good things), my problem is the Fed's attempt to counteract those forces. The result has been an increase in the wealth effect of those with first access to money, namely banks, the already wealthy, and government bureaucrats.

If you are looking for a reason the 1% have done so well lately, simply look at the policies of the Fed coupled with technology that is going to reduce the need for human labor "for the foreseeable future".

I have stated many times there will be another wave of job creation based on new technologies (most likely energy) at some point in the future but I do not know when that may be.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List