Central Perk

miercuri, 23 iulie 2014

The VP has the white board marker:

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

The VP has the white board marker:

Over the past couple years, administration officials have picked up a marker and taken to our "White House white board" to explain how to fix our immigration system, break down how health reform helps your day-to-day life, and outline exactly what our budget's paying for.

Today, Vice President Joe Biden is taking the pen, and he's talking about something he knows like the back of his hand:

The current state of our country's crumbling roads and bridges -- and exactly why it's so important to invest in them right now.

You're going to want to watch this one. Take a look, and pass it on:

Our roads and bridges do far more than get people and goods from Point A to Point B.

A high-quality transportation system keeps jobs here in America, allows our businesses to grow, and keeps down the prices of household goods.

Our country's infrastructure crisis isn't a far-off problem: 65% of our major roads are rated in less than good condition. 25% of our bridges require significant repair or can't handle today's traffic.

It looks like Congress is going to act soon to pass a short-term resolution that would continue to fund the projects fixing our roads and bridges -- but we need to solve the problem, not just kick the can down the road.

Watch the Vice President explain the need for a long-term investment, and break down exactly what our plan looks like.

Then, be sure to pass this one on.

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Short Video: Infrastructure with the Vice President

Featured

Video: Infrastructure with the Vice President

Rebuilding our country's roads and bridges helps our families, fuels our economy, and better positions America for the future.

Want to know how? Vice President Biden takes the marker in our newest White House White Board, and spends a few minutes explaining the history of America's infrastructure -- and why we need a long-term solution that will repair our transportation grid, invest in new infrastructure technologies, and rebuild America for a 21st-century economy.

Watch the Vice President talk about our infrastructure in the latest White House White Board.

Dear Google, Links from YouMoz Don't Violate Your Quality Guidelines

Posted: 22 Jul 2014 05:15 PM PDT

Posted by randfish

Recently, Moz contributor Scott Wyden, a photographer in New Jersey, received a warning in his Google Webmaster Tools about some links that violated Google's Quality Guidelines. Many, many site owners have received warnings like this, and while some are helpful hints, many (like Scott's) include sites and links that clearly do not violate the guidelines Google's published.

Here's a screenshot of Scott's reconsideration request:

(note that the red text was added by Scott as a reminder to himself)

As founder, board member, and majority shareholder of Moz, which owns Moz.com (of which YouMoz is a part), I'm here to tell Google that Scott's link from the YouMoz post was absolutely editorial. Our content team reviews every YouMoz submission. We reject the vast majority of them. We publish only those that are of value and interest to our community. And we check every frickin' link.

Scott's link, ironically, came from this post about Building Relationships, Not Links. It's a good post with helpful information, good examples, and a message which I strongly support. I also, absolutely, support Scott's pointing a link back to the Photography SEO community and to his page listing business books for photographers (this link was recently removed from the post at Scott's request). Note that "Photography SEO community" isn't just a descriptive name, it's also the official brand name of the site. In both cases, Scott linked the way I believe content creators should on the web: with descriptive anchor text that helps inform a reader what they're going to find on that page. In this case, it may overlap with keywords Scott's targeting for SEO, but I find it ridiculous to hurt usability in the name of tiptoeing around Google's potential overenforcement. That's a one-way ticket to a truly inorganic, Google-shaped web.

If Google doesn't want to count those links, that's their business (though I'd argue they're losing out on a helpful link that improves the link graph and the web overall). What's not OK is Google's misrepresentation of Moz's link as "inorganic" and "in violation of our quality guidelines" in their Webmaster Tools.

I really wish YouMoz was an outlier. Sadly, I've been seeing more and more of these frustratingly misleading warnings from Google Webmaster Tools.

(via this tweet)

Several months ago, Jen Lopez, Moz's director of community, had an email conversation with Google's Head of Webspam, Matt Cutts. Matt granted us permission to publish portions of that discussion, which you can see below:

Jen Lopez: Hey Matt,

I made the mistake of emailing you while you weren't answering outside emails for 30 days. :D I wanted to bring this up again though because we have a question going on in Q&A right now about the topic. People are worried that they can't guest post on Moz: http://moz.com/community/q/could-posting-on-youmoz-get-your-penalized-for-guest-blogging because they'll get penalized. I was curious if you'd like to jump in and respond? Or give your thoughts on the topic?

Thanks!

Matt Cutts: Hey, the short answer is that if a site A links to spammy sites, that can affect site A's reputation. That shouldn't be a shock--I think we've talked about the hazards of linking to bad neighborhoods for a decade or so.

That said, with the specific instance of Moz.com, for the most part it's an example of a site that does good due diligence, so on average Moz.com is linking to non-problematic sites. If Moz were to lower its quality standards then that could eventually affect Moz's reputation.

The factors that make things safer are the commonsense things you'd expect, e.g. adding a nofollow will eliminate the linking issue completely. Short of that, keyword rich anchortext is higher risk than navigational anchortext like a person or site's name, and so on."

Jen, in particular, has been a champion of high standards and non-spammy guest publishing, and I'm very appreciative to Matt for the thoughtful reply (which matches our beliefs). Her talk at SMX Sydney—Guest Blogging Isn't Dead, But Blogging Just for Links Is—and her post—Time for Guest Blogging With a Purpose—helps explain Moz's position on the subject (one I believe Google shares).

I can promise that our quality standards are only going up (you can read Keri's post on YouMoz policies to get a sense of how seriously we take our publishing), that Scott's link in particular was entirely editorial, organic, and intentional, and that we take great steps to insure that all of our authors and links are carefully vetted.

We'd love if Google's webmaster review team used the same care when reviewing and calling out links in Webmaster Tools. It would help make the web (and Google's search engine) a better place.

Sign up for The Moz Top 10, a semimonthly mailer updating you on the top ten hottest pieces of SEO news, tips, and rad links uncovered by the Moz team. Think of it as your exclusive digest of stuff you don't have time to hunt down but want to read!

Seth's Blog : Same as it ever was

Same as it ever was

Here are two of the first photographic portraits ever taken, far more than a hundred years ago:

They could have been taken with Instagram, no?

I'm all in favor of self-driving cars and advanced robotics that will change everything. But few of us get to do that for a living. Mostly, we find new ways to do old things, better. No need to fool yourself into holding back just because your innovation or product doesn't contain a flavor that's never been tasted before or an experience previously unimagined.

Find something that will touch us, move us, improve us or change us. Then ship.

• Email to a friend •

marți, 22 iulie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

"No Perry Mason Moment": US Intelligence Admits "No Direct Evidence Linking Russia to MH17"
Split Appeals Court Rulings on Obamacare Subsidies; Pizza Party for Obama? How Much Would Premiums Rise?
Sorting Through All the Possibilities; Ukraine Accuses Russia of Deliberately Downing MH17; Brawl in Ukraine Parliament; Rush to Judgment

"No Perry Mason Moment": US Intelligence Admits "No Direct Evidence Linking Russia to MH17"

Posted: 22 Jul 2014 05:54 PM PDT

Earlier today, and several times recently, I received emails accusing me of being a Russian spy and asking me how much I was receiving from RT. I find such accusations highly amusing.

Here's the deal: Few bloggers are willing to discuss MH17 for fear of getting it wrong. Whereas I suspect nearly everything, but especially reports coming from Kiev and the US. My reasons are threefold:

There are more questions surrounding Kiev and US reports than Russian reports.
Kiev has been caught twice in lies and distortions
While neither US nor Russia is unbiased, the extremely one-sided, jump-to-conclusion reporting from Western media suggests close consideration of competing versions of stories is warranted.

No Perry Mason Moment

A few hours ago The Guardian reported US Intelligence: Rebels Likely Shot Down Plane 'By Mistake'.

The Huffington Post has more details in U.S. Officials: No Evidence Of Direct Russian Link To Malaysia Plane Crash.

Senior U.S. intelligence officials said Tuesday that Russia was responsible for "creating the conditions" that led to the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, but they offered no evidence of direct Russian government involvement.

The intelligence officials were cautious in their assessment, noting that while the Russians have been arming separatists in eastern Ukraine, the U.S. had no direct evidence that the missile used to shoot down the passenger jet came from Russia.

The officials briefed reporters Tuesday under ground rules that their names not be used in discussing intelligence related to last week's air disaster, which killed 298 people.

The plane was likely shot down by an SA-11 surface-to-air missile fired by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, the intelligence officials said, citing intercepts, satellite photos and social media postings by separatists, some of which have been authenticated by U.S. experts.

But the officials said they did not know who fired the missile or whether any Russian operatives were present at the missile launch. They were not certain that the missile crew was trained in Russia, although they described a stepped-up campaign in recent weeks by Russia to arm and train the rebels, which they say has continued even after the downing of the commercial jetliner.

In terms of who fired the missile, "we don't know a name, we don't know a rank and we're not even 100 percent sure of a nationality," one official said, adding at another point, "There is not going to be a Perry Mason moment here."

Step in Likely Direction

That US admission is a step in the likely direction. Unless further information comes in, I am willing to pare my list of possibilities down by one, ruling out an accident by Russia. The list now looks like this.

Ukraine did it accidentally

Surface to air missile
Air to air missile

Rebels did it accidentally

Complete accident
Steered that way on purpose by Ukraine air traffic control flight deviations
Steered accidentally by air traffic control flight deviations
Steered that way on purpose by Ukraine military flights
Steered that way accidentally by Ukraine military flights

Ukraine did it on purpose

Could rebels under outside guidance have made a mistake? Yes, but earlier today I stated outside guidance from Russia was part of scenario number 2. Now we see US intelligence makes the same assessment.

Repeating a few thoughts expressed previously ...

How might Ukraine have done it accidentally?

Easy: On July 17, the New York Times reported Ukraine Says Russian Plane Shot Down Its Fighter Jet.
The Ukrainian government said on Thursday that a Russian military plane had shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet in Ukrainian airspace the previous evening, a serious allegation of direct intervention by Russia's armed forces.

If confirmed, the confrontation would represent the first open and direct involvement by Russia's military in eastern Ukraine since the separatist rebellion began there in April.
Scenario Fulfillment

Please note that 1b is not ruled out. Wreckage confirms missile damage of MH17 from that outside, but does not confirm that it was a Buk or even a missile from the ground.

And after accusing Russia of violating its airspace, is it that unlikely a Ukrainian soldier or pilot accidentally pulled the trigger?

For further discussion of "scenario fulfillment" please see Holier than Thou: Why Should Anyone Believe the US, Ukraine, or Russia?

Rush to Judgment

Under the "Lie When It's Serious" thesis, there is no reason to believe any side completely. Yet many have done just that.

I am not ruling out any possibilities other than #6-Russia did this on purpose, and #5-the rebels did this on purpose.

Of the remaining scenarios, the likelihood Russia did this accidentally is remote, once again distinguishing between official actions and that of rogue citizens acting on their own.

Of the reasonable possibilities, only 2a removes some guilt from Ukraine. Even then, Ukraine turned down a ceasefire agreement, which if honored, would have prevented accidents.

Mainstream media and the US government are without a doubt involved in a rush to judgment, much like the ill-fated rush to judgment before the US invasion of Iraq. Senator John McCain and president Obama are particularly obnoxious.

There are lots of questions here, especially in regards to very sloppy video manipulations and accusations by Ukraine.

Accident the Most Likely Answer

The only non-accident scenarios involve Ukraine. Arguably the most likely scenario is "someone by accident".

Please note that the US, Ukraine, and Russia have all shot down civilian aircraft by accident. Thus, all the hype from Obama, McCain, and others over "an accident" is ridiculous.

With direct Russian involvement now even more unlikely, the list narrows to Ukraine and the Rebels.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Split Appeals Court Rulings on Obamacare Subsidies; Pizza Party for Obama? How Much Would Premiums Rise?

Posted: 22 Jul 2014 03:15 PM PDT

Earlier today the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit invalidated a major provision of Obamacare, ruling 2-1 that participants in health exchanges run by the federal government in 34 states are not eligible for tax subsidies.

No doubt, cheers went out from the anti-Obamacare crowd.

However, just a few hours later, the Richmond Appeals Court ruled 3-0 the opposite way, citing pizza in its explanation.

Conflicting Rulings

The New York Times reports Courts Issue Conflicting Rulings on Health Care Law.

Two federal appeals court panels issued conflicting rulings Tuesday on whether the government could subsidize health insurance premiums for people in three dozen states that use the federal insurance exchange. The decisions are the latest in a series of legal challenges to central components of President Obama's health care law.

The United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, in Richmond, upheld the subsidies, saying that a rule issued by the Internal Revenue Service was "a permissible exercise of the agency's discretion."

The ruling came within hours of a 2-to-1 ruling by a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which said that the government could not subsidize insurance for people in states that use the federal exchange.

That decision could potentially cut off financial assistance for more than 4.5 million people who were found eligible for subsidized insurance in the federal exchange, or marketplace.

Under the Affordable Care Act, the appeals court here said, subsidies are available only to people who obtained insurance through exchanges established by states.

The law "does not authorize the Internal Revenue Service to provide tax credits for insurance purchased on federal exchanges," said the ruling, by a three-judge panel in Washington. The law, it said, "plainly makes subsidies available only on exchanges established by states."

Under this ruling, many people could see their share of premiums increase sharply, making insurance unaffordable for them.

The case is one of many legal challenges to the Affordable Care Act in the last few years. The Supreme Court upheld the law in 2012, but said the expansion of Medicaid was an option for states, not a requirement, and about half the states have declined to expand eligibility.

How Much Would Premiums Rise?

Marketwatch reports Average Premium Hike is 76% in States Without Federal Subsidies.

A Study from Avalere Health shows that the average health-care premium increase for those who actually lose their subsidies would be 76%. The hike in premiums would be highest in Mississippi, where it would be roughly 94%, as well as Missouri, Georgia, Florida and Alaska.

The map shows just how much the increases are likely to be, and the decision could exempt many of the roughly 4.7 million people who received subsidies and enrolled via federal exchanges. Those who enrolled in states with their own exchanges are not subject to the ruling.

Thirty-six states currently use the federal exchange, but two of those — Idaho and New Mexico — are setting up their own marketplace. That means 16 states plus the District of Columbia will be operating their own exchanges in future years.

Health-Care Premium Rise

Pizza Party

Yahoo!Finance reports A Federal Judge Used Pizza To Explain Why A Key Provision Of Obamacare Is Legal.

Just hours after the Affordable Care Act was dealt a serious blow from a federal appeals court, a different appeals court gave the law a victory — thanks in part to an analogy based on pizza.

Senior Fourth Circuit Judge Andre Davis explained the debate in terms of a pizza order:

If I ask for pizza from Pizza Hut for lunch but clarify that I would be fine with a pizza from Domino's, and I then specify that I want ham and pepperoni on my pizza from Pizza Hut, my friend who returns from Domino's with a ham and pepperoni pizza has still complied with a literal construction of my lunch order.

That is this case: Congress specified that Exchanges should be established and run by the states, but the contingency provision permits federal officials to act in place of the state when it fails to establish an Exchange. The premium tax credit calculation subprovision later specifies certain conditions regarding state-run Exchanges, but that does not mean that a literal reading of that provision somehow precludes its applicability to substitute federally-run Exchanges or erases the contingency provision out of the statute.

Question of Intent

The issue is one of intent. Right, wrong, or indifferent, it's highly likely the Supreme Court will rule on the intent of Congress, not actual wording of ACA, nor whether the alleged intention makes much or any sense.

I suspect Obama will get a reprieve, but it is by no means certain. The outcome may depend on how other courts rule before the Supreme Court accepts the case.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Sorting Through All the Possibilities; Ukraine Accuses Russia of Deliberately Downing MH17; Brawl in Ukraine Parliament; Rush to Judgment

Posted: 22 Jul 2014 11:37 AM PDT

Only the person or persons who fired the missile know the truth for sure. Yet Ukraine now says "Russian Officer Downed MH17".

A brawl then ensued in Ukrainian Parliament following a vote to increase troops battling rebels.

Vitaly Nayda, Ukraine's director of informational security, made the accusation in an interview with CNN. The person was "absolutely" a Russian, he said. "A Russian-trained, well-equipped, well-educated officer ... pushed that button deliberately."

Moscow has denied claims that it pulled the trigger. And Russian Army Lt. Gen. Andrei Kartapolov suggested a Ukrainian jet fighter may have shot the plane down.

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko rejected that in an exclusive interview with CNN, saying that all Ukrainian aircraft were on the ground at the time.

Nayda, speaking to CNN on Tuesday, referred to audio recordings captured by Ukrainian intelligence. "We taped conversations" between a Russian officer and his office in Moscow, Nayda said. "We know for sure that several minutes before the missile was launched, there was a report" to a Russian officer that the plane was coming, Nayda said.

"They knew the plane was coming with constant speed, in constant direction," and should have known it was not a fighter jet but "a big civilian plane," he said.

That recording is not among those that have been released.

Vitaly Churkin, Russia's ambassador to the United Nations, was asked Monday about different intercepted recordings, purportedly of pro-Russian rebels talking about shooting down a plane. Churkin suggested that if they did, it was an accident.

"According to them, the people from the east were saying that they shot down a military jet," he said. "If they think they shot down a military jet, it was confusion. If it was confusion, it was not an act of terrorism."

Pro-Russian rebels have repeatedly denied responsibility for the attack. "This is an information war," rebel leader Alexander Borodai said.

Interested in the Truth

"We don't have the technical ability to destroy this plane. Ukrainians are not interested in the truth," said Borodai.

Actually, whoever did it (Russia, Rebels, Ukraine) is not interested in the truth. And even if rebels accidentally did it, Ukraine has no interest whatsoever in explaining why MH17 deviated from its flight path.

Yesterday, Pater Tenebrarum outlined Six Who-Done-It Possibilities, summarized in a different order as follows.

Ukraine did it accidentally
Rebels did it accidentally
Russia did it accidentally
Ukraine did it on purpose
Rebels did it on purpose
Russia did it on purpose

Analysis of the Possibilities

Pieces of the plane with shrapnel holes tend to rule out other possibilities.

Pater suggests, and I concur, numbers 5 and 6 can be discarded. Russia and the rebels had nothing to gain and everything to lose by purposely shooting down a civilian aircraft.

However, Ukraine did have much to gain from doing it on purpose. This is what we are left with but expanding points number 1 and 2.

Ukraine did it accidentally

Surface to air missile
Air to air missile

Rebels did it accidentally

Complete accident
Steered that way on purpose by Ukraine air traffic control flight deviations
Steered accidentally by air traffic control flight deviations
Steered that way on purpose by Ukraine military flights
Steered that way accidentally by Ukraine military flights

Russia did it accidentally
Ukraine did it on purpose

Point number 3 is very remote but arguably possible. Russia would have no reason to be firing missiles accidentally or on purpose over Ukraine territory.

Could rebels under outside guidance have made a mistake? Yes, but I distinguish between official actions and that of rogue citizens. The latter I consider part of scenario number 2.

How might Ukraine have done it accidentally?

Easy: On July 17, the New York Times reported Ukraine Says Russian Plane Shot Down Its Fighter Jet.

The Ukrainian government said on Thursday that a Russian military plane had shot down a Ukrainian fighter jet in Ukrainian airspace the previous evening, a serious allegation of direct intervention by Russia's armed forces.

If confirmed, the confrontation would represent the first open and direct involvement by Russia's military in eastern Ukraine since the separatist rebellion began there in April.

Scenario Fulfillment

Please note that 1b is not ruled out. Wreckage confirms missile damage of MH17 from that outside, but does not confirm that it was a Buk or even a missile from the ground.

And after accusing Russia of violating its airspace, is it that unlikely a Ukrainian soldier or pilot accidentally pulled the trigger?

For further discussion of "scenario fulfillment" please see Holier than Thou: Why Should Anyone Believe the US, Ukraine, or Russia?

Rush to Judgment

Under the "Lie When It's Serious" thesis, there is no reason to believe any side completely. Yet many have done just that.

I am not ruling out any possibilities other than #6-Russia did this on purpose, and #5-the rebels did this on purpose.

Of the remaining scenarios, the likelihood Russia did this accidentally is remote, once again distinguishing between official actions and that of rogue citizens acting on their own.

Of the reasonable possibilities, only 2a removes some guilt from Ukraine. Even then, Ukraine turned down a ceasefire agreement, which if honored, would have prevented accidents.

Mainstream media and the US government are without a doubt involved in a rush to judgment, much like the ill-fated rush to judgment before the US invasion of Iraq. Senator John McCain and president Obama are particularly obnoxious.

There are lots of questions here, especially in regards to very sloppy video manipulations and accusations by Ukraine.

Accident the Most Likely Answer

The only non-accident scenarios involve Ukraine. Arguably the most likely scenario is "someone by accident".

Please note that the US, Ukraine, and Russia have all shot down civilian aircraft by accident. Thus, all the hype from Obama, McCain, and others over "an accident" is ridiculous.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

People Who Skipped Leg Day
Chinese Man Builds Giant Transformers Replicas
You Didn't Know These Celebrities Are The Same Age

People Who Skipped Leg Day

Posted: 21 Jul 2014 08:57 PM PDT

Chinese Man Builds Giant Transformers Replicas

Posted: 21 Jul 2014 07:39 PM PDT

We can guarantee you've never seen Transformers like this before. Some of these replicas are 52 feet tall and if you want to buy one you can, they only cost $16,000.

You Didn't Know These Celebrities Are The Same Age

Posted: 21 Jul 2014 07:19 PM PDT

These celebrities might now look like they have a lot in common with each other but each pair is very close when it comes in regards to their age.