Central Perk

marți, 20 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 11:58 AM PDT

Those expecting a big surge in seasonal hiring this year are likely to be wrong if outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas is correct.

One relative bright spot is Amazon Hiring More than Penney's, Walmart Combined.

Leaving one widely watched holiday hiring forecast in the dust, Amazon (AMZN) said Tuesday that it will add 25 percent more seasonal workers this year, outpacing many of its bricks-and-mortar competitors who plan to keep hiring flat.

Last month, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said it expects retailers to add roughly 755,000 seasonal hires to their payrolls in the final three months of the year. That level would be flat with last year, when holiday hiring fell short of predictions.

"Once again, most analysts are anticipating healthy holiday sales this year," CEO John Challenger said in a statement. "However, there are several factors that may prevent these strong sales expectations from translating into increased hiring."

"When retailers do add holiday workers, fewer of those jobs are in traditional spots, such as sales clerk or cashier."

In 2014, Challenger predicted retailers would hire more than 800,000 seasonal workers from October through December, which would have been the first time they hit this number since 1999. Instead, they ended up adding 755,000 jobs, a decline of 4 percent from 2013.

Seasonal Hiring Expectations

Amazon 100,000 a 25% increase
Macy's 85,000 no increase
Wal-Mart 60,000 no increase
JC Penney 30,000 down 5,000
Nordstrom 11,800 up 1,000
Toys R Us 40,000 down 5,000
Kohl's 69,000 up 2,000
Target 70,000 no increase
Burlington 10,800 up 19%
Sports Authority 3,500 no change
GameStop 28,000 up 12%
Belk 5,800 no increase
Bon-Ton 13,000 not stated
UPS 90,000-95,000 no increase
Federal Express 55,000 up 5,000

If hiring is indeed flat or nearly so, the upcoming jobs reports are likely to be marginal at best.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Housing Starts Surprise to Upside Led by Multi-Family, Permits Surprise to Downside

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 10:26 AM PDT

There's something for bulls and bears alike to cheer about in today's housing starts report. Starts were ever-so-slightly above the top Econoday Estimate but permits were well below the lowest economist's estimate.

Starts, driven by a spike in multi-family units, came in much stronger than expected in September, news offset however by a significant decline in permits. Starts jumped 6.5 percent to a 1.206 million annual rate which is just outside Econoday's high estimate. Multi-family starts surged 18.3 percent to 466,000 which follows large spikes in related permits in May and June. Single-family starts rose very slightly, up 0.3 percent to 740,000.

But it's the permit side of the report that's weak, down 5.0 percent to only 1.103 million which is well below Econoday's low estimate. And it's the multi-family component that's especially weak, down 12.1 percent to 406,000 which is the lowest reading since March. Permits of single-family units are flat, down 0.3 percent to a 697,000 rate.

Taking the ups and downs all together, this report is probably in trend, pointing to an extended upward trend for construction though the abrupt downturn in permits does hint at slowing in the months ahead. Year-on-year, starts are up a very striking 17.5 percent with permits, however, up only 4.7 percent.

Permits

Single-Family Starts

Those charts add quite a bit of needed perspective on the housing "recovery".

Single family construction is most important stat because it leads more directly to family formation.

With permits down and single-family units stagnating, one has to question the huge surge in optimism from builders. Not only are sales weak, but traffic is down.

For details, please see Homebuilder Confidence Soars to Highest Level in 10 Years Despite Falling Traffic; Unwarranted Optimism?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

The Languages Of Star Wars [Infographic]
What Life Is Like Living Inside Of A Bubble
The Halloween Decorations On This House Are Stunning But Haunting

The Languages Of Star Wars [Infographic]

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 04:51 PM PDT

Even though the Star Wars world is pure fantasy, it's still realistic in the fact that different cultures of the universe speak different languages. Thanks to Matinee Multilingual, you can brush up on all the jargon just in time for the excitement to really get going about the upcoming film. Maybe you can even pre-order your ticket in Wookiespeak.

Click on Image to Enlarge.

What Life Is Like Living Inside Of A Bubble

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 04:41 PM PDT

These houses in the Dutch city of Hertogenbosch look like something out of a science fiction movie. Back in 1968 the Dutch government allocated funding for this experimental housing project and although the houses may be ugly, they're still quite popular today.

The Halloween Decorations On This House Are Stunning But Haunting

Posted: 20 Oct 2015 12:09 PM PDT

These people decided to decorate their parent's house for Halloween and now the house is truly haunting.

via imgur

Seth's Blog : Offense and defense, a b2b insight

Offense and defense, a b2b insight

Selling change to organizations is difficult. One reason is that change represents a threat, a chance for things to go wrong. It's no wonder that many people avoid anything that smells of change.

Another reason is that different people in the organization have different worldviews, different narratives.

Consider the difference between "offense" and "defense" when confronting a new idea.

The person who is playing offense wants to get ahead. Grow market share. Get promoted. She wants to bring in new ideas, help more customers, teach the people around her. Change is an opportunity to further the agenda, change is a chance to reshuffle the deck.

The person who is playing defense, though, wants to be sure not to disappoint the boss. Not to drop a ball, break what's working or be on the spot for something that didn't happen.

Either posture, surprisingly, can lead to significant purchases and change.

Defensive purchases are things like a better insurance policy, or a more reliable auditor. Offensive purchases include sophisticated new data mining tools and a course in public speaking.

The defensive purchaser switches to a supplier that offers the same thing for less money. The offensive posture demands a better thing, even if it costs more.

Not only are people divided in their posture related to change, they're also in different camps when it comes to going first. For some, buying something first is a thrill and an opportunity, for others, it's merely a threat.

While we often associate defense with late adoption, that's not always true. The military, for example, frequently pushes to buy things before 'the bad guys' do. For example, the internet was pioneered and supported by the defense establishment.

And while you can imagine that some people seeking to make change happen are eager geeks of whatever is new, it's very common for a proven success (a titan) to wait until an idea is proven, then overinvest in putting it to use in order to continue to steamroll the competition. Trader Joe's did this with laser scanners... They like change, as long as that change is proven to help them win even more than they already are.

Play with the graph a little bit and consider who you are contacting and what story you're telling...

• Email to a friend •

luni, 19 octombrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Socialist Finds 14 Flaws in Capitalism and Seeks Help to Fix Them; Mish 14 Point Rebuttal
Rio Tinto's Pilbara Mines Totally Driverless, Controlled 746 Miles Away
Anti-Immigration Party Wins Swiss Election
Homebuilder Confidence Soars to Highest Level in 10 Years Despite Falling Traffic; Unwarranted Optimism?

Socialist Finds 14 Flaws in Capitalism and Seeks Help to Fix Them; Mish 14 Point Rebuttal

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 11:26 PM PDT

Those looking for a big laugh can find one in Philip Kotler's Huffington Post article entitled Fix Capitalism - Join Us!

Kotler says "The economic system is failing to deliver rising living standards for most Americans. Most of the gains from higher productivity are going to the rich. The middle class is getting smaller, the wages of the working class are lower in real terms than in the 1980s, and the really poor continue to constitute 15% of our citizens."

On his website FixCaptalism.Com Kotler notes 14 shortcomings of capitalism but says "there may be more".

14 Alleged Shortcomings

Proposes little or no solution to persistent poverty
Generates a growing level of income inequality
Fails to pay a living wage to billions of workers
Not enough human jobs in the face of growing automation
Doesn't charge businesses with the full social costs of their activities
Exploits the environment and natural resources in the absence of regulation
Creates business cycles and economic instability
Emphasizes individualism and self-interest at the expense of community and the commons
Encourages high consumer debt and leads to a growing financially-driven rather than producer-driven economy
Lets politicians and business interests collaborate to subvert the economic interests of the majority of citizens
Favors short-run profit planning over long-run investment planning
Should have regulations regarding product quality, safety, truth in advertising, and anti-competitive behavior
Tends to focus narrowly on GDP growth
Needs to bring social values, well being and happiness into the market equation.

Kotler's list is so preposterous, I hardly know where to start. So let's just go down the list one by one.

Mish 14 Point Rebuttal

It is capitalism that is responsible for improved standards of living over the decades.
The Fed and government bureaucrats, not capitalism is behind growing income inequality. That said, some degree of inequality is not only a good thing but a very necessary thing. People need to be rewarded for bringing new ideas to the market. Successful new ideas raise the standards of living of everyone, and income inequality creates the very incentive to market new ideas.
The inflationary policies of central bank planners is the primary reason people do not make a "living wage".
Throughout history people feared automation. Yet every technological advance created new jobs. One reason for the acceleration of job losses now are the very "living wage" proposals espoused by those like Kotler that price humans out of jobs.
It's not the role of businesses, nor should it be, to be concerned with undefinable "social costs".
It's not capitalism that fails to charge businesses for pollution costs, but rather governments.
It is beyond idiotic to propose capitalism causes economic instability. It is governments and central banks that cause economic instability.
With his concern about "community commons", one can easily see Kotler is a dyed-in-the-wool socialist. The problem with socialism is, it does not work and never will.
Capitalism does not encourage high consumer debt. The Fed and central banks do, in the inane belief debt drives the economy.
Capitalism does not let "politicians and business interests collaborate to subvert the economic interests of the majority of citizens". Rather corrupt politicians willing to do anything to get reelected are the problem.
Capitalism does not favor short-run profit planning, but tax laws might.
In point 12, Kotler argues in favor of "anti-competition". Competition is the very essence of improved products and rising standards of living.
Capitalism does not focus on GDP at all. Misguided economists, politicians, and central banks do.
Pray tell, whose "social values" do we need to consider? Mine? Yours, ISIS? Kotler's? Personally, I do not want some jackass or set of government jackasses, deciding what is socially right or wrong.

Save Us from Socialists!

Philip Kotler is the S.C. Johnson & Son Distinguished Professor of International Marketing at the Northwestern University Kellogg School of Management in Chicago.

Having completed my 14 point rebuttal, it is pretty clear Kotler has no idea what capitalism really is or the advances it has created. He attributes problems to capitalism that are in reality caused by central banks and government bureaucrats.

Kotler wants to "save capitalism from itself."

The irony is capitalism does indeed need to be saved, not from itself, but from economically illiterate socialists like Kotler.

Rather than fixing capitalism, I suggest we actually try capitalism in lieu of Fed foolishness, government foolishness, and socialist foolishness.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Rio Tinto's Pilbara Mines Totally Driverless, Controlled 746 Miles Away

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 06:06 PM PDT

The first two mines in the world to start moving all of their iron ore using fully remote-controlled trucks have just gone online in Western Australia's Pilbara.

Mining giant Rio Tinto is running pits at its Yandicoogina and Nammuldi mine sites, with workers controlling the driverless trucks largely from an operations centre in Perth, 1,200 kilometres away.

Josh Bennett manages the mining operations at Yandicoogina mine north west of Newman and is closely involved with running 22 driverless trucks on the site.

Mr Bennett said the two pits are the largest of their kind in the world.

"What we have done is map out our entire mine and put that into a system and the system then works out how to manoeuvre the trucks through the mine."

The company is now operating 69 driverless trucks across its mines at Yandicoogina, Nammuldi and Hope Downs 4.

The trucks can run 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, without a driver who needs bathroom or lunch breaks, which has industry insiders estimating each truck can save around 500 work hours a year.

Mr Bennett said the technology takes away dangerous jobs while also slashing operating costs.

"We have taken away a very high risk role, where employees are exposed to fatigue," he said.

Rio plans to fully automate its trains by the middle of next year once the Office of Rail Safety includes the technology in its safety guidelines.

Let's be honest. This is not about reducing fatigue or taking away dangerous jobs. This is about slashing costs. Truck drivers in remote locations are very expensive.

Now a single person hundreds or even thousands of miles away can monitor multiple trucks, replacing many much more expensive drivers in one fell swoop.

And the same thing is going to happen to millions of interstate truck driving jobs in the US. Taxi and Uber drivers will vanish as well in the 2020-2025 time frame.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Anti-Immigration Party Wins Swiss Election

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 10:11 AM PDT

Fears over waves of millions of Syrian refugees flooding Europe have spread to Switzerland. In a huge swing to the right, the Anti-Immigration SVP Party Wins Swiss Election.

The right-wing, anti-immigration Swiss People's Party (SVP) has won Switzerland's parliamentary election with a record 29.4% of the vote.

Its victory translates into 11 extra seats, giving it 65 out of the total 200 in the lower house. SVP leader Toni Brunner can now forge a majority with other right-wing parties.

Europe's migrant crisis boosted support for the SVP, commentators say - though Switzerland is taking in far fewer migrants than Germany.

The right-wing liberal FDP also got an electoral boost, coming third.

Swiss media are speaking of a "Rechtsrutsch" - a "slide to the right" - because the SVP, FDP and some small right-wing parties can now command a majority in the National Council (lower house).

No such slide has occurred yet in the 46-seat upper house (Council of States), as a second round of voting is required in many cantons.

The SVP won the 2011 vote with 26.6%, becoming the largest party, but now it has made further gains.

"The vote was clear. The people are worried about mass migration to Europe," said SVP leader Toni Brunner.

The SVP spearheaded the Swiss drive to impose immigration quotas, which got the green light in a February 2014 referendum. But it contradicts the EU's freedom of movement principle, which Switzerland had earlier agreed to respect.

The EU has until January 2017 to resolve the dispute with Switzerland - after that the Swiss government must make the quotas law.

Switzerland has pledged to participate in the EU's controversial scheme to relocate 120,000 refugees from Italy and Greece, but it is not yet clear how many the Swiss will accept.

The SVP is sceptical about Switzerland's many bilateral agreements with the EU, telling voters that the country is better off remaining outside the 28-nation bloc.

Solution

The only thing that can stop this refugee crisis are strict border controls coupled with policy changes.

The EU brought this crisis upon itself by offering free food, free shelter, and free services to economic as opposed to political refugees.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Homebuilder Confidence Soars to Highest Level in 10 Years Despite Falling Traffic; Unwarranted Optimism?

Posted: 19 Oct 2015 09:19 AM PDT

Yahoo Finance says Whoa! Homebuilders Feeling Happiest in 10 Years.

I am not sure they are the "happiest" in 10 years, but they are the most confident.

Sentiment jumped 3 points in October to a level of 64 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything above 50 is considered positive sentiment. The index stood at 54 last October.

"The fact that builder confidence has held in the 60s since June is proof that the single-family housing market is making lasting gains as more serious buyers come forward," said NAHB Chairman Tom Woods, a homebuilder from Blue Springs, Missouri.

Of the index's three components, two saw gains in October.

Sales expectations in the next six months rose 7 points to 75, while current sales conditions rose 3 points to 70. Buyer traffic, however, didn't move, sitting at 47— the only component still in negative territory.

Unwarranted Optimism?

As with manufacturing six-month look-ahead expectations that have been ridiculously overoptimistic for at least a year, I suspect the same thing applies to home builders.

The one stat that matters most, prospective buyer traffic, is actually negative. So why the optimism?

Are builders are simply trying to hype up the price of their stocks?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock