miercuri, 30 decembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


NSA Spied on Israeli Prime Minister During US-Iran Nuclear Negotiations

Posted: 30 Dec 2015 01:28 PM PST

In an unexpected confirmation of what every thinking person realized upfront, the Guardian reports US 'spied on Binyamin Netanyahu during Iran nuclear deal talks'
Despite Barack Obama's promise to curtail eavesdropping on allies in the wake of the Edward Snowden revelations about the scale and scope of US activities, the National Security Agency's (NSA) surveillance included phone conversations between top Israeli officials, US congressmen and American-Jewish groups, according to the Wall Street Journal.

The White House did not confirm or deny the report. Ned Price, spokesman for the National Security Council, said on Wednesday: "We are not going to comment on any specific alleged intelligence activities. As a general matter, and as we have said previously, we do not conduct any foreign intelligence surveillance activities unless there is a specific and validated national security purpose. This applies to ordinary citizens and world leaders alike."

Relations between Obama and Netanyahu have often been described as strained. The NSA reports allowed Obama administration officials to peer inside Israeli efforts to turn Congress against the Iran deal, the Wall Street Journal said.

The surveillance allegedly revealed how Netanyahu and his advisers had leaked details of the US-Iran negotiations, which they learned through Israeli spying operations. Last March, Israel denied reports that its security forces spied on the negotiations between Tehran and major powers over Iran's nuclear capacities.
Security Threats

Who constitutes a validated national security threat? The answer is anyone and everyone still breathing.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

A "Mish Together" January 5, 2016

Posted: 30 Dec 2015 12:22 PM PST

Chris Temple, a friend of mine, and author of the National Investor newsletter is passing my way (Crystal Lake, Illinois) on his annual snowbird trip from Wisconsin to Florida.

I know Chris as a fellow panelist at several Chicago Area Natural Resources conferences.

I invited him over for dinner, but after some discussion, we elected to open the invite to anyone who is in the area and wants to come for dinner, or just drinks and appetizers for those who prefer something light.

Date: Tuesday, January 5, 2016
Time: 7:00 PM
City: Crystal Lake, Illinois
Place: Village Squire Restaurant - 4818 Northwest Highway - Crystal Lake, Illinois

For those who want to come a bit earlier, Chris and I will be at the bar at 6:30 PM.

There are several Village Squire locations. Pick the one in Crystal Lake. Here's a Google Map.

If you can make it, please: Send an Email Confirmation.

After dinner, there is a nearby karaoke bar for those who want to sing or have further discussion over drinks.

It should be a fun evening. You can ask questions about anything that is on your mind.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Pending Home Sales Decline 0.9%, Well Below Lowest Estimate; About that "Know Before You Owe" Theory

Posted: 30 Dec 2015 11:06 AM PST

Today the NAR released the Pending Home Sales Index, a measure of expected sales on existing homes. The Econoday Consensus Estimate was for a 0.5% rise in a range of 0.0 to 2.4%.

No economist got the sign correct. The index unexpectedly declined 0.9% month-over-month, well below even the lowest economist's estimate.
Pending home sales in November declined for the third time in four months as buyers continue to battle both rising home prices and limited homes available for sale. The pending home sales index was down 0.9 percent but up 2.7 percent from a year ago. Modest gains in the Midwest and South were offset by larger declines in the Northeast and West.

November's dip continued the modestly slowing trend seen ever since pending sales peaked to an over nine year high back in May. NAR said that home prices rose too sharply in several markets, there were mixed signs of an economy losing momentum and waning supply levels all contributed to headwinds in recent months despite low mortgage rates and solid job gains.

The Northeast decreased 3.0 percent but is still 4.3 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 1.0 percent and and is now 4.1 percent above November 2014. Pending home sales in the South increased 1.3 percent and are 0.5 percent higher than last November. The index in the West declined 5.5 percent but remains 4.5 percent above a year ago.

Recent History Of This Indicator

Pending home sales are expected to rise a solid 0.5 percent in November vs. a softer 0.2 percent rise in October. The expected gain would point to a badly [needed?] increase for final sales of existing homes which were depressed in November by new disclosure rules and related time delays.
About that "Know Before You Owe" Theory

Ahead of the release, Bloomberg parroted the NAR line that disclosure rules affected November existing home sales.

I wrote about the rule changes on December 22, in Existing Home Sales Plunge 10.5%, NAR Blames "Know Before You Owe"; What's the Excuse for Last Month?

The rule change, dubbed "Know Before You Owe", was a simplification of disclosure rules. It became effective on October 3. I failed to see how a decline in November was related to simplification of rules that actually took effect the previous month.

Bear in mind, that the NAR called a dip in October "disturbing" but in November placed the entire blame on the "Know Before You Owe" rules.

If the rule change theory was correct, delays in November would have pushed into expected closings in December. The Econoday economist guessing a rise of 2.4% probably believed that theory. Instead, we see a plunge.

Of course the index itself could be wrong, so we have to wait for the actual December numbers. But as it sits, the most likely thing is blaming "Know Before You Owe" was simply a bad call.

Today, the NAR blames "home prices that rose too sharply in several markets".  I find that a much better theory, especially if we replace the word "several" with the word "most".

What about the NAR's perpetual "never a better time to buy" thesis? Is the NAR willing to toss that theory on the ash heap of history?

Don't hold your breath.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Drastic Action

Posted: 30 Dec 2015 12:28 AM PST

In Misguided Plans to Fix the Fed Part 1: Bernie Sanders I proposed abolishing the Fed. That's something I have stated many times over the past decade.

Nonetheless, reader Harold wonders is that action would be a bit drastic. Harold writes ...
Hello Mish:

Don't you think totally abolishing the Fed is a bit drastic.  Theoretically if they could be stripped of any political influence and let the free market set interest rates their endless bubble production would be muted. I think their function of providing liquidity as a lender of last resort serves a useful function. Wasn't this the original purpose for creating the fed in 1913? I think their function has been bastardized by politicians and they have evolved into a tool of the government and the financiers. Free market capitalism can run the economy otherwise. 

I hope you have a healthy happy New Year.  Thanks for the great commentary.

Harold
Hello Harold. No I don't believe my solution to end the Fed is drastic.

Look at things this way: How can anyone determine the precise amount of steel, of oranges, of oil that the economy should produce?

If you do not think that is possible, then please tell me how a set of jackasses (or geniuses if you prefer) can possibly know where interest rates or the money supply should be?

In practice, the Fed has never once spotted a bubble or bust in advance. Nor does the Fed have any foresight in predicting economic growth. The Fed is perpetually overoptimistic as are economists in general.

Setting the price of orange juice would be far simpler than setting interest rates.

The Fed may have an alleged "function" but the result has been boom-bust cycles of increasing amplitude over time.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Seth's Blog : It's not a problem if you prepare for it



It's not a problem if you prepare for it

Buffalo famously gets a lot of snow. Growing up there, though, no one really freaked out about it, because we had machines to get rid of it and the attitude that it was hardly a problem worth hyperventilating over.

Most problems are like that. When we prepare for them and get used to them, they're not problems anymore. They're merely the way it is. 

{Learn to see}.

 
       

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marți, 29 decembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Checking Back In Regarding a "Sure Thing"

Posted: 29 Dec 2015 11:01 AM PST

Several readers sent emails prior to the Fed hike on December 16 that the stock market would collapse immediately following a rate hike.

I commented on that sentiment in Knowing the Unknowable; Reflections on the Fed Hike. Here's a snip.
"Epocalypse" Now

The first person, an economic blogger, tells me a global economic collapse of biblical proportion is coming. He labels the collapse an "epocalypse" and offered a guest-post article that I passed on.

I responded "No one knows the precise timing of a collapse. There might not even be one.
Stocks could do a slow decline like Japan for years."

You can start a countdown, because yesterday he pinged back "Check in with me at the end of the week."
Checking Back In

I gave "Epocalypse" more than the few days he asked. The end of the week would have been the 18th. It's now the 29th.

This is what I see.



Curiously, the market is right where the market closed on the day of the hike. Anyone who bought short-term CALLs or PUTs expecting high volatility lost money.

The rate hike was the most telegraphed Fed move in history. No one had any advantage in knowing the Fed would hike.

I can list up with more reasons than most as to why the markets are over-valued and pension plans extremely vulnerable. For example ...

  1. Stocks More Overvalued Now Than 2000 and 2007 No Matter How You Look at Things
  2. Bubble Debate; Equity Allocations vs. Shiller PE; Simple World
  3. Death Watch Illinois: Despite Massive Stock Market Rally, Illinois Pension Liabilities Go Up, and Up, and Up
  4. Apocalypse Illinois: IOUs Projected to Hit $10.5 Billion, $163 Billion Total Accumulated Liabilities

Nothing above is a timing indicator. And as we have seen, a rate hike is not a precise timing indicator either.

Had a serious decline started on the day of the Fed hike, "Epocalypse" would have been nothing more than lucky, but he likely would have thought he was a genius who "knew" something.

Can an "Epocalypse" start tomorrow?

Sure, why not? But it could also start a month from now or six months from now. We could also see a slow drift down for years like Japan. We could even see stocks do nothing for years while valuations catch up to smoothed earnings.

The one thing we do know is history suggests stocks are hugely over-valued. But I don't know when valuations matter. No one does.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Get Your Money Out of Italian Banks Now! Austerity and Bail-Ins Fan Populist Flames; Italy's 5-Star Movement to Challenge Renzi

Posted: 29 Dec 2015 09:29 AM PST

Austerity and Bail-Ins Fan Populist Flames

The Italian economy is growing, albeit barely. But Italy is still saddled with massive amounts of debt.

Citizens are upset about a recovery that has passed most of them by. For example, youth unemployment is a whopping 39.8%.

That's a lot of potential voters rightfully upset about things. For them, promises are many, and gains are nonexistent.

Topping off the discontent, Italy Bank Rescues Spark Bail-In Debate as Anger at Renzi Grows.
In 2013, Sergio Picinotti, a 63-year-old unemployed man living with his elderly mother, invested much of their nest egg of €40,000 in a bond issued by Banca Etruria, their local bank based in the medieval Tuscan city of Arezzo.

"They said 'what are you doing keeping that in your checking account? Put it here, you'll earn 4 per cent flat," Mr Picinotti recalls. "A friend at the bank told me: 'Trust me, it will take the third world war to shut down Banca Etruria'."

Today, Mr Picinotti has lost all that money, but Banca Etruria never closed: in fact it was saved from collapse last month along with three other small banks in a dramatic rescue operation engineered by the centre-left Italian government led by Matteo Renzi.

The trouble is there was a price to pay: under the terms of the deal, several thousand subordinated bondholders such as Mr Picinotti were wiped out along with Banca Etruria shareholders, while holders of senior debt and depositors were spared.

"They stole it all, I'm living on the edge," says Mr Picinotti.

But the reverberations of the bank rescue have also been felt far beyond Tuscany: as Europe prepares to institute new rules from next year which would force losses on bank creditors and big depositors, the saga of Banca Etruria serves as a cautionary tale to politicians and policymakers about the public backlash that could follow any future "bail-ins".

On a national level, anger has been mounting towards Mr Renzi for his handling of the affair. It has created an unlikely hotbed of discontent with the 40-year-old prime minister and former mayor of nearby Florence in a region that is traditionally sympathetic to his own political party at a time when he is already battling declining polling numbers.

The Banca Etruria case has also revived worries about the health of the Italian banking sector, which remains saddled by more than €200bn of non-performing loans (NPLs) and has barely started to increase lending again after the end of a bruising triple-dip recession. It has also raised questions about the effectiveness of regulators at the Bank of Italy and Consob, the stock market regulator. Italian officials have defended the solidity of their banks and the work of their regulators, and pointed to new reforms of small bank governance. But Francesco Galietti, an analyst at Policy Sonar in Rome, said: "If there was such a kerfuffle with four regional banks, what will a large resolution look like?"
Italy's 5-Star Movement to Challenge Renzi

With the above bailout and unemployment backdrop, it should not be surprising to see the eurosceptic Five Star Movement on the Rise.
When the populist Five Star Movement burst into Italian politics in 2009 during the financial crisis, it was defined by uncompromising protests and the burly, sardonic figure of its leader, the comedian Beppe Grillo.

But the Five Star Movement is now attempting to change its face from that of one of Europe's most eccentric — even clownish — political parties. The transformation aims to achieve what seemed like a fantasy only a year ago: to govern the country and challenge the centre-left government led by prime minister Matteo Renzi.

Mr Grillo, 67, has removed his name from the party logo, signalling that he may soon step aside. His most likely heir is Luigi Di Maio, a 29-year-old smooth-talking Neapolitan with polished looks, tight-fitting dark suits and moderate tones.

"The perception of the movement has changed," Mr Di Maio tells the Financial Times. "At the beginning there was the idea that this was a protest movement . . . But we crashed through that wall. We want to govern."

The odds of that happening are increasing. The Five Star Movement is now Italy's second party. After trailing Mr Renzi's Democratic party by nearly 20 percentage points a year ago, recent polls suggest the margin has shrunk to about 5 percentage points — 32 per cent to 27 per cent.

The Five Star Movement has won a few municipal races — clinching control of small cities such as Parma, Livorno and Ragusa. The results have been mixed. The mayor of Livorno, for example, has faced harsh criticism after a scandal over uncollected rubbish broke out in the Tuscan port city.

A bigger test of the Five Star Movement's strength is to come next year, when local elections will be held in some of Italy's largest cities. The big prize is Rome, the scandal-ridden capital where Five Star has been riding high in the polls after the resignation of Democratic party mayor Ignazio Marino in October.

The Five Star Movement's platform has been based on a few key pillars that have drawn supporters from both the right and the left: opposition to corruption, environmentalism, and a referendum on euro membership, which Mr Di Maio blames for many of Italy's economic woes.

"The real failure of monetary union is to think that countries in the south should travel at the same speed as the ones in the north," he says.

Lately, his party has been lashing out at Italy's rescue of four small banks, which wiped out thousands of retail investors holding junior debt.

"Their goal was to save the bankers, not the citizens," Mr Di Maio wrote on his Facebook page last week. There are some signs he has tried to moderate Mr Grillo's sharper edges. Mr Di Maio recently helped broker a deal with Mr Renzi's PD for the appointment of three constitutional judges.

And he is keen to distance himself from another populist party shaking Europe's establishment, France's far-right National Front. Its rise reflects a "climate of general indignation", says Mr Di Maio. Yet the Five Star Movement, he insists, is not a populist toxin but its antidote: "We're the natural spokesman of citizens. We are a barrier against hatred and extremism".
Get Your Money Out of Italian Banks Now!

The goal is always to bail out the banks at any expense, especially that of taxpayers. The bail-ins in December are a huge warning shot at what's highly likely in 2016.

If you have money in weak banks after this mess, you are crazy. Cyprus, Greece, and Italy have all provided warning shots. I have been warning about these setups for years. And in 2016, banks can go right after depositors if necessary.

It will be very interesting to watch target2 imbalances (a measure of capital flight) following this bail-in debacle. The political scene looks interesting as well. Renzi's days may well be numbered.

If the Renzi government falls, it's highly likely it will be to a eurosceptic party. In this regard, Greece was a sideshow. Italy is the real deal.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Surefire predictions



Surefire predictions

I'm betting on the following happening in 2016:

An event will happen that will surprise, confound and ultimately bore the pundits. 

Out of the corner of your eye, you'll notice something new that will delight you.

You'll be criticized for work you shipped, even though it wasn't made for the person who didn't like it.

Something obvious will become obvious.

A pop culture emergency will become the thing that everyone is talking about, distracting us from the actually important work at hand.

You'll gain new leverage and the ability to make even more of a difference.

We'll waste more than a billion hours staring at screens. (That's in total, but for some people, it might feel like an individual number).

That thing that everyone was afraid of won't come to pass.

Some people will gain (temporary) power by ostracizing the other, amplifying our fears and racing to the bottom.

And the long-term trend toward connection, dignity and possibility will continue. Slowly.

Opportunities will be missed. Lessons will be learned.

You'll say or write something that will shine a light, open a door and make a connection.

Nothing will be as perfect as we imagined it. Many things will be better than that, though.

Leaps will be taken.

You will exceed expectations.

The project you've been working on will begin to pay off in unexpected ways, if you're open to seeing them.

You will start something. And quit something.

That expensive habit that you don't even enjoy that much will continue to be expensive.

We'll forget some hard lessons but we'll also learn some new ones.

A pretty safe list, because, of course, this always happens.

{Level up

       

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luni, 28 decembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Misguided Plans to Fix the Fed Part 1: Bernie Sanders

Posted: 28 Dec 2015 12:48 PM PST

Starting with a recent op-ed in the New York Times by Bernie Sanders, let's take a look at various proposals floating around to fix the Fed and other central banks.

Bernie Sanders says To Rein In Wall Street, Fix the Fed

Sanders: Wall Street is still out of control. Seven years ago, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department bailed out the largest financial institutions in this country because they were considered too big to fail. But almost every one is bigger today than it was before the bailout. If any were to fail again, taxpayers could be on the hook for another bailout, perhaps a larger one this time.

To rein in Wall Street, we should begin by reforming the Federal Reserve, which oversees financial institutions and which uses monetary policy to maintain price stability and full employment. Unfortunately, an institution that was created to serve all Americans has been hijacked by the very bankers it regulates.

Mish: That type of populist proposal will appeal to those who believe Wall Street is the problem. It will also appeal to those who understand the Fed is indeed in bed with Wall Street. But we must analyze Sanders' specific recommendations one-by-one.

Sanders: The recent decision by the Fed to raise interest rates is the latest example of the rigged economic system. Big bankers and their supporters in Congress have been telling us for years that runaway inflation is just around the corner. They have been dead wrong each time. Raising interest rates now is a disaster for small business owners who need loans to hire more workers and Americans who need more jobs and higher wages. As a rule, the Fed should not raise interest rates until unemployment is lower than 4 percent. Raising rates must be done only as a last resort — not to fight phantom inflation.

Mish: Sanders ignores the dotcom bubble, the housing bubble, and the bubbles now in both stocks and bonds. Those bubbles all have their roots in a Fed that kept rates too low, too long. The idea that rates should be tied to a single measure like unemployment is ludicrous. And at 4% unemployment rates, the Fed would seldom if ever hiked. The Fed does not know where interest rates should be, and neither does Sanders. 

Sanders: What went wrong at the Fed? The chief executives of some of the largest banks in America are allowed to serve on its boards. During the Wall Street crisis of 2007, Jamie Dimon, the chief executive and chairman of JPMorgan Chase, served on the New York Fed's board of directors while his bank received more than $390 billion in financial assistance from the Fed. Next year, four of the 12 presidents at the regional Federal Reserve Banks will be former executives from one firm: Goldman Sachs. These are clear conflicts of interest, the kind that would not be allowed at other agencies. We would not tolerate the head of Exxon Mobil running the Environmental Protection Agency. We don't allow the Federal Communications Commission to be dominated by Verizon executives. And we should not allow big bank executives to serve on the boards of the main agency in charge of regulating financial institutions.

Mish: The conflicts of interest are indeed obvious. The solution is to get rid of the Fed.

Sanders: The Fed must also make sure that financial institutions are investing in the productive economy by providing affordable loans to small businesses and consumers that create good jobs. How? First, we should prohibit commercial banks from gambling with the bank deposits of the American people. Second, the Fed must stop providing incentives for banks to keep money out of the economy. Since 2008, the Fed has been paying financial institutions interest on excess reserves parked at the central bank — reserves that have grown to an unprecedented $2.4 trillion. That is insane. Instead of paying banks interest on these reserves, the Fed should charge them a fee that would be used to provide direct loans to small businesses.

Mish: I agree the Fed should prohibit commercial banks from gambling with the bank deposits of the American people. The way to do that is end fractional reserve lending. Lending deposits that are supposed to be available on demand is fraudulent. Paying interest on excess reserves the Fed creates out of thin air is also fraudulent. However, the notion the Fed should charge interest on reserves to spur lending is ridiculous. Mathematically, every dollar the Fed prints has to be held by someone. When banks lend, the money eventually ends up as a deposit somewhere else. Moreover, efforts to force banks to make more loans will just encourage bad lending decisions and subsequent writeoffs.

Sanders: As a condition of receiving financial assistance from the Fed, large banks must commit to increasing lending to creditworthy small businesses and consumers, reducing credit card interest rates and fees, and providing help to underwater and struggling homeowners.

Mish: Banks should not be bailed out or given assistance ever. To do so creates a moral hazard.

Sanders: We also need transparency. Too much of the Fed's business is conducted in secret, known only to the bankers on its various boards and committees. Full and unredacted transcripts of the Federal Open Market Committee must be released to the public within six months, not five years, which is the custom now. If we had made this reform in 2004, the American people would have learned about the housing bubble well in advance of the financial crisis.

Mish: The housing bubble was obvious to every thinking person. Yet, the idea minutes would prove the Fed knew are highly unlikely. The Fed has never spotted a bubble. And neither the Fed nor Sanders sees the bubbles we are in now. That said, I fully support transparency and the release of full and unredacted transcripts.

Sanders has some things right, but as many things wrong.

We should audit the Fed and end it, not attempt to fix it with absurd rules about where interest rates should be, coupled with preposterous efforts to force banks to lend.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

More Abenomics Failures: Retail Sales and Factory Output Contract, Businesses Reject Wage Hike Plea; Fine-Tuning à la Buiter

Posted: 27 Dec 2015 11:34 PM PST

Complete Failure of Abenomics

Abenomics is back in the spotlight tonight. Results show a complete failure on three fronts: retail sales are down, factory output is back in contraction, and the most humiliating of all, Japanese firms have outright rejected Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's plea for higher wages.

Retail Sales Decline, Factory Output Contracts

Please consider Japan output, retail sales slump, dampen recovery prospects.
Japan's factory output fell for the first time in three months in November and retail sales slumped, suggesting that a clear recovery in the world's third-largest economy will be delayed until early in 2016.

While manufacturers expect to increase output in coming months, the weak data casts doubt on the Bank of Japan's view that an expected pick-up in exports and consumption will help jump-start growth and accelerate inflation toward its 2 percent target.

Industrial output fell 1.0 percent in November from the previous month, more than a median market forecast for a 0.6 percent decline, data by the trade ministry showed on Monday.

Separate data showed that retail sales fell 1.0 percent in November from a year earlier, more than a median forecast for a 0.6 percent drop, as warm weather hurt sales of winter clothing.

Wary of soft growth, the government plans nearly $800 billion in record spending in the budget for the fiscal year that will begin on April 1.

The BOJ has signalled readiness to expand stimulus if risks threaten Japan's recovery prospects. The central bank fine-tuned its stimulus programme on Dec. 18 to ensure it can keep up or even accelerate its money-printing.
Fine-Tuning

Damn that weather. It's always too hot, too cold, or too perfect for retail sales.

The only possible conclusion is central banks need to fine-tune the weather to get predictable outcomes.

Not to worry, there's the tried-and-failed method of more government spending as a fallback mechanism.

Businesses Reject Abe's Plea to Hike Wages

As if weather-related fine-tuning was not problematic enough, the Japan business lobby head won't commit to higher wages
The head of an influential Japanese business lobby won't pass on the government's requests to its members to raise salaries next year, a worrying sign that real wages may not increase fast enough to boost consumption in the country.

"The government is hoping for higher wages, but the Keizai Doyukai, as an organization that corporate executives personally belong to, is not going to tell its members what to do," said Yoshimitsu Kobayashi, chairman of the Keizai Doyukai, which regularly participates in the government's corporate policy panels and is one of Japan's top three business lobbies.

"Companies that don't have money obviously won't raise wages."

Higher wages are crucial to policymakers' efforts to break a decades-long cycle of weak growth and deflation. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has won modest wage gains from the largest firms, but this has been slow to filter through the economy.

Around 65 percent of people work at small and medium-sized enterprises, many of which are losing money and are therefore unlikely to raise salaries or spend extra money on training employees
More Fine Tuning Needed

What's with these damn corporations? Why do they insist on making a profit anyway? Clearly this misguided and very unpatriotic behavior must be fixed at all costs.

And I have just the solution. As part of the fine-tuning effort, all Abe needs to do is guarantee minimum corporate profits.

Should that fail, there's always the last resort of free helicopter-drop money for everyone. Lord knows how important it is to slay the deflation dragon once and for all.

Don't take my word for it. Instead, listen to Willem Buiter, Citibank's Chief Economist.

He knows precisely how damaging deflation is. For details, please see Helicopter Drop, What Else?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


Anthony Bourdain Gives 15 Awesome Pieces Of Life Advice

Posted: 28 Dec 2015 02:34 PM PST

Anthony Bourdain has done it all in his lifetime, so today he's going to share some of his worldly wisdom with you.


















Fan Builds His Own Lifelike Chewbacca Costume From Star Wars

Posted: 28 Dec 2015 02:30 PM PST

This fan wasn't satisfied with just buying a replica of the Chewbacca costume from Star Wars. He decided to build his own Chewbacca suit from scratch and this is how he did it.