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sâmbătă, 2 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Blaming Others: Reflections on "The Big Short"

Posted: 02 Jan 2016 05:50 PM PST

Reflections on "The Big Short"

I have not yet seen "The Big Short" movie. Everyone tells me it was excellent. I intend to see it, but I already know what happened in detail, how, and why.

The Fed has not yet admitted its role, nor have banks, nor have the rating agencies, nor has Congress with its ludicrous affordable housing programs, nor has Bush with the "Ownership Society".

I could go on and on and on. But I left off one key set of people: Individuals blaming everyone else but themselves.

Blaming Others

An article just came my way expressing that same viewpoint. It's a New York Magazine Interview With Michael Burry, Real-Life Market Genius From The Big Short, head of Scion Asset Management.

NY: Were you surprised no one went to jail?
Burry: I am shocked that executives at some of the worst lenders were not punished for what they did. But this is the nature of these things. The ones running the machine did not get punished after the dot-com bubble either.

NY: When I spoke to some of the other real-life characters from The Big Short, I was surprised to hear that they thought that financial reform was pretty effective and that the system was much safer. Michael Lewis disagreed. In your opinion, did the crash result in any positive changes?
Burry: Unfortunately, not many that I can see. The biggest hope I had was that we would enter a new era of personal responsibility. Instead, we doubled down on blaming others, and this is long-term tragic. Too, the crisis, incredibly, made the biggest banks bigger. And it made the Federal Reserve, an unelected body, even more powerful and therefore more relevant. The major reform legislation, Dodd-Frank, was named after two guys bought and sold by special interests, and one of them should be shouldering a good amount of blame for the crisis. Banks were forced, by the government, to save some of the worst lenders in the housing bubble, then the government turned around and pilloried the banks for the crimes of the companies they were forced to acquire. The zero interest-rate policy broke the social contract for generations of hardworking Americans who saved for retirement, only to find their savings are not nearly enough. And the interest the Federal Reserve pays on the excess reserves of lending institutions broke the money multiplier and handcuffed lending to small and midsized enterprises, where the majority of job creation and upward mobility in wages occurs. Government policies and regulations in the postcrisis era have aided the hollowing-out of middle America far more than anything the private sector has done. These changes even expanded the wealth gap by making asset owners richer at the expense of renters. Maybe there are some positive changes in there, but it seems I fail to see beyond the absurdity.

NY: How do you think all of this affected people's perception of the System, in general?
Burry: The postcrisis perception, at least in the media, appears to be one of Americans being held down by Wall Street, by big companies in the private sector, and by the wealthy. Capitalism is on trial. I see it a little differently. If a lender offers me free money, I do not have to take it. And if I take it, I better understand all the terms, because there is no such thing as free money. That is just basic personal responsibility and common sense. The enablers for this crisis were varied, and it starts not with the bank but with decisions by individuals to borrow to finance a better life, and that is one very loaded decision. Yet so few took responsibility for having any part in it, and the reason is simple: All these people found others to blame, and to that extent, an unhelpful narrative was created. Whether it's the one percent or hedge funds or Wall Street, I do not think society is well served by failing to encourage every last American to look within. This crisis truly took a village, and most of the villagers themselves are not without some personal responsibility for the circumstances in which they found themselves. We should be teaching our kids to be better citizens through personal responsibility, not by the example of blame.

NY: Where do we stand now, economically?
Burry: Well, we are right back at it: trying to stimulate growth through easy money. It hasn't worked, but it's the only tool the Fed's got. Meanwhile, the Fed's policies widen the wealth gap, which feeds political extremism, forcing gridlock in Washington. It seems the world is headed toward negative real interest rates on a global scale. This is toxic. Interest rates are used to price risk, and so in the current environment, the risk-pricing mechanism is broken. That is not healthy for an economy. We are building up terrific stresses in the system, and any fault lines there will certainly harm the outlook.

Glass-Steagall Scapegoat

I have seen so many people blaming mortgage companies, big banks, and especially the repeal of the Glass-Steagall act. All three were peripheral agents, at best.

Actually, I do not think the repeal of the Glass-Steagall act had anything to do with the crisis at all.

I commented on the Glass-Steagall Fallacy on January 21, 2010.

Merits of Glass-Steagall

The idea that Glass-Steagall would have done much, if anything to prevent this crisis is potty. Goldman Sachs, Bear Stearns, and Lehman would all have done what they did. Wells Fargo would have kept its pool of option arms, and the rest of the banks would have followed their lend to securitize model and the regional banks would still be losing their asses on silly commercial real estate deals.

That said, I am in favor of these initiatives for the simple reason they help prevent fraud. Many of the large institutions hand out advice and trade against it. Goldman Sachs is accused of front-running trades. Their disclosure documents even allow it.

Paul Volcker on Glass-Steagall

Unconvinced? Then please consider Please consider Volcker's Quest To Reinstate Glass-Steagall.

The loudest argument to bring back Glass-Steagall usually goes something like this: Depository institutions (commercial banks) need to be very safe and stable. If you allow investment banks to take big risks with those deposits, bad things can happen.

Now let's take a step back. What are these risky securities we're talking about? They're bonds backed by real estate -- originated by commercial banks. So really, it was the commercial banks that took the crazy risks that almost broke the economy. If there was never securitization, and the same subprime loans were made, then we'd have very, very sick depository institutions, but investment banks would have been largely unscathed.

Of course, there was securitization, and that was done by the investment banks. Where might Glass-Steagall have helped here? Well, it wouldn't have. Securitization existed before the Act was repealed, and it would exist if it's brought back. Commercial banks can still sell mortgages into giant pools for investment banks to make securities out of, with or without the mortgage originators and bankers living under the same umbrella. Commercial banks also still would have retained lots of their mortgage exposure, and still been quite sick. Just ask Countrywide.

Fed the Key Enabler

Few mention the Fed as the key enabler. Even fewer see the role of individual people all rushing like mad to get into housing "before it's too late".

Those hurt in the crisis all tend to point a finger at someone else. Too few admit personal responsibility.

That said, bailing out the banks was criminal. So were lies by the bank executives. So was the role of the rating agencies. But who is responsible for making the rating agencies the beasts they are?

Those who do not know the answer will be surprised: The answer is the SEC.

I wrote about the rating agency mess before the crisis, September 28, 2007 to be precise. If you have not yet done so, please consider Time To Break Up The Credit Rating Cartel.

Here We Are Again

Here we are again, back in one hell of a bubble that almost no one sees. Most of those who do see the bubbles are still content to play the greater fool's game in belief they can get out on time.

Mathematically it's impossible for the masses to escape bubbles.

When the next downturn hits, everyone will cry out for the Fed to do something. The Fed already did: It enabled bubbles in 2000, 2007, and now.

People like bubbles, until they pop, then they blame everyone but themselves for participating in them.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Even-Handed Beheadings in Saudi Arabia; Friends Must Be Friends

Posted: 02 Jan 2016 12:00 PM PST

Saudi Arabia executed 47 people today in the biggest mass execution since 1980. Those executed include Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a prominent Shi'ite Muslim cleric.

Some were beheaded, others shot. Don't worry, there's nothing to be concerned about, the executions were "even-handed".

Please consider Saudi Arabia Executes Prominent Shia Cleric Nimr al-Nimr.

The execution on Saturday morning of Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr, a staunch opponent of the ruling Al Saudi family, has further stirred sectarian tensions in the Gulf and triggered threats from regional rival Iran.

The Iranian foreign ministry accused Saudi Arabia of supporting terrorist movements and extremists abroad while confronting domestic critics with oppression and execution. "The Saudi government will pay a high price for following these policies," the Iranian foreign ministry said.

One activist said that 45 of those executed were al-Qaeda members and sympathisers, with the other two being Shia.

Many of the charges related to terrorist attacks that took place during the al-Qaeda insurgency that was put down a decade ago.

Shia activists have denied that Sheikh Nimr was involved in violent resistance, but many Saudis argue that his incitement against the government was tantamount to terrorism and often defend his death sentence.

The activist said the government probably executed Shia dissidents at the same time as al-Qaeda sympathisers to back its claim to be taking an even-handed approach in its crackdown down on terrorism. The Shia minority in the oil-rich eastern province has for years complained of discrimination.

The Saudi Press Agency report, citing the Koran, said: "The recompense of those who wage war against Allah and His Messenger and do mischief in the land is only that they shall be killed or crucified or their hands and their feet be cut off from opposite sides, or be exiled from the land."

"Even-Handed" Defined

Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr's crime was speaking out against the government.

In order to get rid of al-Nimr, Saudi Arabia had to get rid of 46 others, mostly Al Qaeda or alleged Al Qaeda sympathizers.

As further proof of even-handedness, al-Nimr was not crucified for his alleged "mischief in the land."

We would not want to crucify people for mischief would we? Beheadings are far more appropriate.

Iran Warns of High Price to Pay

The Telegraph reports Saudi 'will pay high price' for execution of top Shia cleric, warns Iran.

Saudi Arabia executed prominent Shia Muslim cleric Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr on Saturday, stirring a chorus of condemnation and sectarian anger across the region.

Nimr was a talismanic figure in protests that broke out in 2011 in the Sunni-ruled kingdom's east, where the Shia minority complains of marginalisation. His arrest in July 2012 sparked days of protest.

Hundreds of Shias marched through Nimr's home district of Qatif in protest at the execution, eyewitnesses told Reuters news agency, chanting "down with the Al Saud" in reference to the Saudi ruling family.

Describing the executions as acts of "mercy" to prisoners who might have committed crimes on their release, Saudi Arabia's leading cleric, Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdulaziz Al Sheikh, said they were carried out in line with Islamic law and the need to safeguard the kingdom's security.

Acts of Mercy

There you have it. Not only were the executions "even handed", they were also "acts of mercy".

Global Response

Iran: Iran's foreign ministry spokesman accused Riyadh of hypocrisy. "The Saudi government supports terrorist movements and extremists, but confronts domestic critics with oppression and execution," said Hossein Jaber Ansari.

Lebanon: Lebanon's Supreme Islamic Shia Council called the execution a "grave mistake"

Iraq: Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said it would have repercussions on regional security.

Germany: A German foreign ministry official said Nimr's execution strengthened "existing concerns about increasing tensions and deepening rifts in the region".

UK: From Guardian: Liberal Democrat leader, Tim Farron, responded to news of the executions by describing capital punishment as abhorrent, and called on the prime minister to do more to pressure foreign governments into abolishing the death penalty. Britain's shadow foreign secretary, Hilary Benn, described the execution as "profoundly wrong". However, "prime minister David Cameron insists UK must have close ties with Saudi Arabia".

Bahrain: Striking image from one of the protests in Bahrain. The banner reads "to hell with you".

Protester holds a banner saying "to hell with you" as she takes part in a protest against the execution of Saudi Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr by Saudi authorities, in the village of Sanabis. Photograph: Hamad I Mohammed/Reuters

US Response

In the US, there was deafening silence from president Obama as well as our state department. And why not? After all, those executions were "even-handed acts of mercy" by our Saudi friends. What else can possibly be said?

When your friends sponsor terrorism and execute their own citizens simply for being dissidents, you just have to look away. Friends must be friends, otherwise they aren't friends. And in the drive for perpetual war, Saudi Arabia is the biggest friend we have.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : When to charge by the hour

When to charge by the hour

Most professionals ought to charge by the project, because it's a project the customer wants, not an hour.

Surgery, for example. I don't want it to last a long time, I just want it to work. Same with a logo or website design.

Or house painting. The client is buying a painted house, not your time.

One exception: If the time is precisely what I'm buying, then charging by the time is the project. Freudian therapy, say, or a back massage.

Another exception: If the client has the ability to change the spec, again and again, and the hassle of requoting a project cost is just too high for both parties. A logo design, for example, probably starts with project pricing, but if the client keeps sending you back for revisions, at some point, they're buying your time, aren't they?

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vineri, 1 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Millions of Foreign Visitors Overstay Visas: Precisely How many? No One Seems to Know; Does Obama Care?

Posted: 01 Jan 2016 03:01 PM PST

In the wake of terrorist activity in Europe and mass shootings in San Bernardino, Calif., that left 14 people dead and 22 wounded, some may be wondering: Are we tracking those in the US on Visas, and if so, how?

The answer, despite Federal laws that require tracking visa entrants, is the U.S. Doesn't Know How Many Foreign Visitors Overstay Visas.

The question from the congressman to the Obama administration official was straightforward enough: How many foreign visitors overstay their visas every year?

The reply was simple too, but not in a satisfying way. "We don't know," the official said.

The testy exchange during a recent congressional hearing between Representative Mark Meadows, Republican of North Carolina, and Alan Bersin, the assistant secretary for international affairs at the Department of Homeland Security, highlights what some law enforcement officials call a critical weakness in the United States foreign visa program.

Nearly 20 years ago, Congress passed a law requiring the federal government to develop a system to track people who overstayed their visas. After the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, an entry and exit tracking system was seen as a vital national security and counterterrorism tool, and the 9/11 Commission recommended that the Department of Homeland Security complete a system "as soon as possible." Two of the 9/11 hijackers, Satam al-Suqami and Nawaf al-Hazmi, had overstayed their visas.

Since then, the federal government has spent millions of dollars on the effort, yet officials can only roughly estimate the number of people in the United States illegally after overstaying visas.

One widely cited statistic, from a 1997 report by the Immigration and Naturalization Service, puts the number of people who overstay their visas at 40 percent — which now would mean about 4.4 million of the estimated 11 million undocumented residents in the United States. Numerous lawmakers, including the Republican presidential candidates Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, have used that figure when trying to describe the scope of the problem. But even that number has never been conclusively substantiated.

Federal agencies have not provided a new report to Congress on overstays since 1994, despite the congressional mandate.

In early 2013, Janet Napolitano, then the secretary of Homeland Security, testified before Congress that the agency planned to issue a report on overstay rates by December 2013. The agency did not follow through because officials said they did not have confidence in the quality of the data. Mr. Bersin said last month that the report would be issued in the next six months.

In 2004, lawmakers passed legislation that required Homeland Security officials to accelerate their efforts to create an automated biometric entry and exit data system.

Congress repeated its demand for a biometric exit system in 2007 and set a deadline for 2009. But the deadline passed, with the department putting into place only a handful of pilot programs.

Since then, the department has continued to struggle to meet this requirement. A 2013 report by the Government Accountability Office said the Department of Homeland Security had more than one million "unmatched" arrival records, meaning that those records could not be checked against other information showing that the individuals had left the country, but again the department could not offer a precise number.

Despite the call by some lawmakers for an exit system, airports and the airline industry have balked because it would cost airlines $3 billion, according to a 2013 Homeland Security estimate. The Department of Homeland Security issued regulations in 2008 requiring airports to collect biometric exit information, but carriers have largely ignored the regulation, and there have been no sanctions.

Questions Abound

What will the US do if someone doesn't leave who is supposed to? Ignore the problem hoping it goes away? Issue alerts? Round up the illegals and deport them?
What about the presumed 4.4 million already here on expired visas?
Is the US prepared for a Trump-like deportation proposal?
Is the US comfortable with an Obama-like welcome with no background checks?

Uncomfortable Questions

The above questions are uncomfortable, but must be asked.

Unless there is a comprehensive and workable overall plan, a biometric program will not do much in and of itself but add to expenses and increase delays.

This visa issue further compounds the issue of illegal aliens. Hillary prefers to label the illegals "undocumented".

Those here with expired visas were documented, and they entered the US legally. Both groups are now here illegally, so let's not mince words. The term "illegal" applies in both cases.

Political correctness aside, those who wish to differentiate might consider the phrase "illegal, undocumented alien" as the most accurate description for those who entered the US illegally, with no documents.

Popularity of Trump

Part of the popularity of Donald Trump is that he at least has some semblance of plan. That he doesn't care who his plan offends likely helps his campaign. Whether or not the plan is truly workable doesn't matter for now.

The primary alternative seems to be blanket amnesty for those already here combined with no background checks on refugees coming in.

Is there a middle ground somewhere? or not?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

California Referendum Would Force Politicians to Wear Logos of Donors

Posted: 01 Jan 2016 10:59 AM PST

In California, citizens can propose a referendum on anything if they gather enough signatures.

John Cox, a wealthy attorney who made a fortune in real estate, is tired of politicians who are bought and owned by corporate interests.

He is putting up $1 million to gather signatures for a referendum that would Force Politicians to Wear Donor Logos.

A wealthy Republican wants to require unprecedented transparency in California by forcing state politicians to plaster their suits and dresses with the logos of their top 10 donors -- and voters fed up with those politicians may actually get the chance to vote on the idea in November.

The unusual dress code is offered in a proposed ballot initiative that backers say likely will be cleared for signature collection within the next week or two. Then, 365,880 valid signatures will have to be submitted for a spot on the ballot.

Initiative sponsor John Cox, an attorney who owes his fortune to real estate, says he doesn't foresee a challenge in the threshold, which is relatively low due to poor 2014 voter turnout. Cox says he expects a boost from popular anti-establishment sentiment reflected in the presidential race.

Cox says he's seeking the endorsements of GOP presidential front-runner Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, both of whom have rallied passionate supporters in part by denouncing their rivals as indentured servants to corporations and other wealthy donors.

"It's going to be immensely popular," Cox says. "We have a system under which people who want something from government fund the campaigns of the people who make those decisions. In any other solar system that would be considered corrupt."

"It actually would raise some fascinating issues if it were to be applied," says George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley. "Politicians could challenge the law as applied in how the determination is made of the top donors when most money may come from individuals," he says, as "lobbyists often donate as individuals rather than as representatives of their companies or clients."

Timothy Zick, a law professor at the College of William and Mary, is more skeptical of the initiative's ability to survive a legal challenge. The idea, he says, "strikes me as a textbook case of invalid compulsory speech."

But Cox says he can't imagine who would want to have their name on any such lawsuit, and says that finding donor information online is too arduous.

Cut out the Middleman

I have commented on more than one occasion about waste inherent in the current system.

Since lobbyists write virtually every piece of legislation, my sarcastic proposal was to cut out the middlemen by directly electing lobbyists. At least we would have some bit of honesty.

Cox's referendum would accomplish nearly the same thing.

Truth in Lending Extension

Although Fed members are appointed, not elected, how about JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, and National Association of Realtors (NAR) logos on Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

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Seth's Blog : Expectations

Expectations

Lower the expectations that you'll find an easy way out.

Raise your expectations for what you can contribute.

Lower your expectations for how effective that next shortcut is going to be.

Raise your expectations about what technology can do for you if you patiently push it.

Lower your expectations about how an angry fight can help you win something you care about.

Raise your expectations for how much consistent daily action can transform your status quo.

Lower your expectations of finding a fairy godmother.

But raise them about the power of concrete goals that keep you from hiding.

{Level up. Everything I write about hinges on the idea that we are capable beings. Capable of making decisions, of taking responsibility, of raising and lowering our expectations.

As we move into a new year, today's a perfect day (in many countries, a legal holiday) dedicated to thinking about levelling up, about what it means to make new choices about what we will do next.

That's why today is a good day to tell you that we've opened applications for the fourth session of the altMBA workshop.

altMBA alumni work at companies large and small, unknown and famous, but what what they all have in common is that they've made a choice. They've acknowledged that they are capable of levelling up, and they have.

You will learn to see differently and more important, to help others take action.

It's your turn. I hope you'll take a look before our deadline on Wednesday.}

Happy new year.

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joi, 31 decembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Expect a Huge Jump in Layoffs in 2016; Eye on Initial Unemployment Claims: Have they Bottomed?

Posted: 31 Dec 2015 12:53 PM PST

I have a watchful eye on initial unemployment claims. They have been trending higher (unexpectedly of course) since mid-October.

Initial Claims 2015

Econoday economists were surprised by the jump.

Initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped 20,000 to 287,000 in the December 26 holiday week, the highest level since the July 4 holiday week. The Econoday consensus expected an increase of 3,000 to 270,000. The 4-week moving average was up 4,500 to 277,000 in the December 26 week, the highest since the July 18 week. The level of continuing claims increased 3,000 to 2.198 million in the December 19 week. The seasonally adjusted insured unemployment was unchanged at 1.6 percent in the December 19 week. It should be noted that readings in this report can be volatile during the holiday weeks.

Long-Term Perspective

A long-term chart shows the claims are still at historic lows dating all the way back to the 1970s. Does that imply there is little cause for concern?

Let's look at the chart another way.

That chart shows recessions sometimes start with year-over-year changes still negative and sometimes not. Moreover, there is a tremendous amount of noise as evidenced by huge swings that did not lead to recession.

Low claims in and of themselves are pretty inconclusive even though huge spikes tend to mark recessions.

Where to in 2016?

Jobs have been strong, but some of us believe part-time jobs and Obamacare artifacts have skewed the numbers. Regardless, jobs are a hugely lagging indicator, even if you believe the numbers.

Since there was a burst of seasonal hiring, it stands to reason there will be a burst of seasonal firing.

With corporate profits under pressure from rising wages, and with many big box retailers struggling, upcoming layoffs are likely to be huge.

Recent PMI reports provide clues as to where things are headed:

December 19: Growth in Service PMI Shrinks Sharply
December 26: Chicago PMI Crashes, New Orders and Backlogs Plunge to May 2009 Level; Service Economy Headed for a Slowdown?

Manufacturing is in an outright recession, and services are weakening. It stands to reason, jobs will follow.

We will find out in the January jobs report, to be released Friday, February 5, 2016.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Chicago PMI Crashes, New Orders and Backlogs Plunge to May 2009 Level; Service Economy Headed for a Slowdown?

Posted: 31 Dec 2015 10:48 AM PST

The Unexpected Strikes Chicago Again

It was another disastrous month for the Chicago PMI. Economists expected a bounce back from last month's unexpected dip into negative territory. Instead the numbers reflect what's best described as a two-month crash.

The Econoday Consensus Estimate was a guess of 50 in a range of 48 to 53. The actual reading of 42.9 was far below any economist's estimate.

The December Chicago PMI tumbled to a reading of just 42.9, down 5.8 points. The reading was a fresh 6-1/2 year low and the seventh contraction this year. It also was far below expectations of a breakeven reading of 50.

The biggest contributor to the decline was a 17.2 point plunge in order backlogs, to 29.4, marking their eleventh consecutive month in contraction. December's reading was the lowest since May 2009. The index also was depressed by ongoing weakness in new orders, which contracted at a faster pace, down 5.3 points to 38.8, the lowest level since May 2009. Both production and employment fell into contraction.

The only component to expand at a faster pace was supplier deliveries, although some companies noted that the rise was influenced more by logistics issues during the holiday season and in preparation for Chinese New Year on February 8. The PMI continued to feel the ill effects of general sluggish demand and lower energy prices, which have left their mark on Chicago area companies, along with the stronger U.S. dollar. Moreover, well above normal temperatures has impacted many businesses that rely on cold weather.

Ahead of the release this is what Econoday had to say:

The Chicago PMI is a one of a kind, a regional report that tracks the whole scope of the economy, at least for Chicago. Big swings are the norm but one isn't expected for December with the consensus calling for what would be a small 1.3 point gain for this index to dead even 50, which is about where this index has been trending.

Chicago PMI Index vs. ISM

It does not appear to me the index has been trending around 50 as Bloomberg suggests. The three jumps above 50 are counter-trend in a series that has been weakening for about a year.

Service Economy Headed for a Slowdown?

The Chicago PMI is a bit different because it contains a mix of both manufacturing and service companies. That makes matters worse given economists generally consider the service economy to be in good shape.

Last month when the PMI dipped for the 6th time in 10 months (now 7th time in 11 months), I asked the question Service Economy Headed for a Slowdown?

Here is the pertinent snip:

Bloomberg proposes the volatility of the report should limit its impact on the month's outlook.

I suggest volatility is a sign of a trend change as well as underlying weakness. And the backlog of orders, one place where there has been consistent contraction for 10 months, does not bode well for future hiring needs.

All things considered, the Chicago PMI is a warning that the service economy may be on its last legs.

Reflections on the Weather

This month, Bloomberg relies on the old standby: the weather.

Damn that weather. It's always too hot, too cold, or too right. This month it was too pleasant.

Heading into the reports, it's pretty clear the economists did not know the Chicago weather was too good, otherwise they would have lowered their forecasts.

Economists only learned Chicago's weather was too good following the PMI release today. Amazingly, economists don't even know about massive snowstorms until economic reports come out weeks later.

Sorry State of Chicago

Weakening services coupled with the biggest property tax hike in history will not do wonders for the Chicago economy.

For more on the sorry state of affairs in Chicago and the state of Illinois as a whole, please see ...

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

Seth's Blog : Fighting entropy

Fighting entropy

It's not easy to run a supermarket. Low margins, high rents, perishable products... Even A&P, once dominant, is now gone.

My new favorite supermarket, by a large margin, is Cid's.

It's not that he's in a perfect location, or that his store has the advantage of no competition.

How does he do it? Fair prices, great stuff where you least expect it, a staff that cares...

He's in the store, every day. And his son is too.

My only theory is this: He fights mediocrity every single day.

He regularly refuses to compromise when compromise might be easier in the short run.

Mostly, he cares. A lot.

Entropy and the forces of mediocrity push hard. People who care push back.

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sâmbătă, 2 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : When to charge by the hour

When to charge by the hour

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vineri, 1 ianuarie 2016

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Welcome to the Social Blade Dashboard!

Seth's Blog : Expectations

Expectations

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joi, 31 decembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Seth's Blog : Fighting entropy

Fighting entropy

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