Central Perk: Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

vineri, 18 martie 2011

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Canadian and Australian Dollar vs. the Price of Crude; Reflections on the PPI and the Commodity Bubble
Rand Paul on the "False Budget Choice", on Fixing Social Security "In Perpetuity", on Obama's "Abdication in Leadership"
UN Security Council Authorizes No-Fly Zone; Qaddafi Declares Cease-Fire, "Willing to Talk to Rebels"; Military Planning Continues; What's Next?
Risk of Meltdown Decreases as Workers Attempt to Restore Power; NHK Confirms that Water Pumps Have Been Restarted

Canadian and Australian Dollar vs. the Price of Crude; Reflections on the PPI and the Commodity Bubble

Posted: 18 Mar 2011 12:53 PM PDT

Here is a pair of interesting charts showing the correlation between the Canadian and Australian dollar vs. the price of West Texas Intermediate crude.

Australian Dollar vs. Crude

Canadian Dollar vs. Crude

Both the Australian and Canadian dollars have a strong correlation with crude going all the way back to 1997. Should the correlation continue to hold, and there is no reason to believe it won't, then if the price of crude drops, the Loonie and the Australian dollar will both likely drop as well.

Reflections on the PPI

Earlier today someone told me via email that my "silence on the PPI and CPI was deafening".

Actually I have seldom directly commented on the CPI or PPI recently even when the CPI was low.

However, I have commented on commodity prices on many occasions expressing the viewpoint "those looking for inflation can find it in China and India where credit is running rampant".

Commodity prices are set at the margin and China is overheating. When China cools (and it will in my opinion), commodity prices will drop.

Commodity Bubble

People are entitled to believe what they want, but I will side with John Hussman who thinks commodities are in a bubble.

From Hussman Anatomy of a Bubble

In the stock market, I believe that there is indeed a "bubble" component in current prices, but it is not nearly as large as we observed in the approach to the 2000 peak, nor as extreme as we observed on the approach to the 2007 peak. My hope is that investors have learned something. That's not entirely clear, but we'll be as flexible as we can while also being mindful of the risks.

While my view is that bubble components can come and go in the markets, they sometimes become so large and well-defined that they take on a very distinct profile. Such bubbles included the advance to the 2000 stock market peak, the housing bubble, the advance in oil prices to their peak in 2008, the advance in the Nikkei in the late 1980's, and other clearly parabolic advances.

On that note, it's clear to me that we're seeing classic bubbles in a variety of commodities. It is very unlikely that this is simply due to global demand growth. Even with an exhaustible resource, it is a well-known economic result (Hotelling's rule) that the optimal extraction rule is one where the price rises at a rate not much different from the interest rate. What we've seen lately is commodity hoarding, predictably resulting from negative real interest rates provoked by the Fed's policy of quantitative easing.

Fortunately for the world's poor, the speculative dynamic that has created a massive surge in commodity prices appears very close to running its course, as we see very similar "microdynamics" in agricultural commodities as we saw with oil in 2008. That's not to say that we have a good idea of precisely how high prices will move over the short term. The blowoff phase of a bubble tends to be steep, but so short-lived that it affords little opportunity to exit. As prices advance in an uncorrected parabola, the one-sided nature of the speculation typically gives way to a frantic effort of speculators to exit simultaneously. Crashes are always a reflection of illiquidity in two-sided trading - the inability of sellers to find eager buyers at nearby prices.

On the subject of commodities, it's a natural question whether gold falls into the same category as agricultural commodities. After all, gold and other hard assets have an important role as an alternative to money to store value, and it appears clear that the world is monetizing in a way that is unlikely to be fully reversed even if policy makers wish to do so down the road.

In my view, it's not clear that gold is in a bubble here, but it will be important to watch for the earmarks of a classic bubble. Below, I've plotted the price of gold against a "canonical" log-periodic bubble. Already, we're seeing some behavior that is characteristic of a bubble-type advance. A Sornette-type analysis generates a finite-time singularity as early as April, but there are other fits that are consistent with a more sustained advance. If we observe a virtually uncorrected advance toward about 1500 in the next several weeks, the steep and uncorrected advance would imply an increasing hazard probability.

My response to the above was Anatomy of Bubbles; Negative Returns for a Decade Revisited; Is Gold in a Bubble?

I agree with Hussman about the bubble in commodities not only because of the speculation angle but also because of unsustainable growth in China. When China stalls, it will likely take commodities and the commodity producing countries down with it, notably Australia and Canada.

Finally, gold is acting more like a currency than a natural-resource commodity (because that is what it is). It may or may not be immune to a commodity-related selloff, and much depends on the actions of central banks down the road.

Those who insist on a direct quote regarding the recent PPI report, here it is: "Commodities are in a bubble and the PPI is reflective of that bubble."

Of course bubbles can always get bigger. Oil hit $140 in 2008. Perhaps it does again in 2011, but barring a major disruption in Saudi Arabia or Iran, I rather doubt it.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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Rand Paul on the "False Budget Choice", on Fixing Social Security "In Perpetuity", on Obama's "Abdication in Leadership"

Posted: 18 Mar 2011 10:44 AM PDT

Senator Rand Paul (Kentucky) and Senator Mike Lee (Utah) go after both Republicans and Democrats in a segment with Kudlow.

URL if above video does not play: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqBGrl-nuT0&feature=player_embedded

Rand Paul on Balancing the Budget

Senator Rand Paul: "I do not think we should shut down government but I do not like either the Democrat or the Republican proposal. Both of them perpetuate enormous deficits. The annual deficit will be $1.65 trillion under the Democrats and $1.55 trillion under the Republicans."

"I did not come to Washington to vote for deficits, I came to balance the budget, and cut federal spending. People at home don't understand what's going on. Up here people think we could never cut $500 billion. At home, when I tell them we are going to cut $500 billion, they say that's only a third of the problem, I want you to cut more"

"This isn't an either-or situation. It's not a Hobson's Choice. There is something in between. It's not either we spend what they want or we shut it down. What if we spend what we have? I'm all for spending about $2.2 trillion, that about what we bring in."

Fixing Social Security "In Perpetuity"

Rand Paul goes on to say that he will introduce a bill that will fix Social Security "In Perpetuity". Details did not come out in the interview.

Rand Paul Accuses Obama of "Abdication in Leadership"

Senator Mike Lee: "We desperately need presidential leadership. So far what we've had from the president is radio silence."

Senator Rand Paul: "I call it an abdication in leadership. I do not think he wants to lead or is willing to lead. I think we can have leaders in Congress who boldly say this is how we fix Social Security, this is how we fix Medicare, and this is how we fix the budget"

Rand Paul Introduces Five-Year Balanced Budget Plan

URL if above video does not play: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0vDNmE_M7E

Filling the Leadership Vacuum

I agree with Rand Paul's charge about leadership. I said the same thing a few days ago in Global Crisis in Leadership Nearly Everywhere You Look

It is good to see someone attempt to fill the leadership vacuum, and in a productive manner.

Unfortunately little can happen because of the blockage in the Senate by the Democrats unless Obama is willing to lead, and lead responsibly. He won't.

The sad reality is that none of the Republicans currently running for president in 2012 are willing to do what's needed either.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

UN Security Council Authorizes No-Fly Zone; Qaddafi Declares Cease-Fire, "Willing to Talk to Rebels"; Military Planning Continues; What's Next?

Posted: 18 Mar 2011 09:48 AM PDT

In a 10-0 vote with 5 abstentions, the UN security council authorized a no-Fly zone over Libya. Proving that Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi was prepared for this in advance Libya Calls Cease-Fire After Britain and France Vow Action 'Soon'

Hours after the United Nations Security Council voted to authorize military action and a no-fly zone, Libya executed a remarkable about-face on Friday, saying it would call an "immediate cease-fire and the stoppage of all military operations" against rebels seeking to oust Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi.

It was unclear what effect a cease-fire, if honored, might have, but the offer drew some skepticism in the West. Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain told the BBC of Colonel Qaddafi: "We will judge him by his actions, not his words."

Mr. Cameron told the House of Commons that the Royal Air Force would deploy Tornado jets and Eurofighter Typhoon warplanes, "as well as air-to-air refueling and surveillance aircraft."

"Preparations to deploy these have already started, and in the coming hours they will move to air bases from where they can take the necessary action," Mr. Cameron said.

The Typhoon is a fighter jet armed with air-to-air missiles for shooting down airplanes, as well as laser-guided bombs for targets on the ground. The Tornado is especially well suited for attacking runways — that was its first combat mission, in the Persian Gulf war, when the planes swooped in to bomb runways in Iraq, facing thick anti-aircraft defenses that shot down several of the planes.

Before the cease-fire was announced, the Libyan leader signaled his intentions in Benghazi. "We will come house by house, room by room," Colonel Qaddafi said Thursday on a radio call-in show before the United Nations vote. "It's over. The issue has been decided." To those who continued to resist, he vowed: "We will find you in your closets. We will have no mercy and no pity."

In a television broadcast later, he added: "The world is crazy, and we will be crazy, too."

Military Planning Continues

Bloomberg reports Qaddafi Cease-Fire Bid Fails to Deter Allies' Military Planning

Western allies pressed on with plans for military action against Libya after Muammar Qaddafi's regime declared an immediate cease-fire and said it was willing to talk to rebels.

U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, who was preparing a set of demands with President Barack Obama and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, said he would judge Qaddafi by his actions and not his words.

Cameron told lawmakers the U.K. would "in the coming hours" deploy Tornado and Typhoon warplanes, air-to-air refueling craft and surveillance aircraft to enforce the no-fly zone. After Cameron spoke in London, Libyan Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa made the cease-fire announcement in a televised news conference carried by Al Arabiya television.

Cameron told Parliament in London that the UN resolution falls short of giving the authority for regime change in Libya, saying "we have to restrict ourselves" even though "almost every leader has actually said the Qaddafi regime has to go."

Obama called Cameron and Sarkozy last night to discuss enacting the resolution, the White House said in a statement. The three agreed to work closely with Arab and other international partners on enforcing the terms of the resolution and called for an end to the violence against civilians in Libya, the White House said.

Italian newspapers, including Corriere della Sera, reported today that the government would make three bases available to support a no-fly zone -- Sigonella and Trapani Birgi in Sicily and Gioia del Colle near the southern city of Bari.

France's Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier is at its base in the Mediterranean port of Toulon and could be called into service on the mission.

Denmark has committed to sending six F-16 fighter planes to help back the no-fly zone, Copenhagen-based newswire Ritzau reported, citing Defense Minister Gitte Lillelund Bech. Canada will deploy six CF-18 fighter jets, Postmedia News reported, citing unnamed sources.

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said in Madrid today he will seek Parliament's approval to deploy air and naval forces to back the UN resolution on Libya and will cede bases in Spain to back the operation.

Turkey, a majority-Muslim member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, does not support military intervention in Libya "for the moment," said Selcuk Unal, spokesman for the Foreign Ministry.

NATO member Germany said it wouldn't join any intervention. "German soldiers won't take part in a military mission in Libya," Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said.

What now? What good does it do to bomb runways if Qaddafi does honor the cease-fire? What if the rebels break the cease-fire?

A cease-fire leaves Libya in a divided state. Invading Libya with ground troops is out of the question, at least it should be.

What appeared a few weeks ago would be over quickly, certainly isn't.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Risk of Meltdown Decreases as Workers Attempt to Restore Power; NHK Confirms that Water Pumps Have Been Restarted

Posted: 18 Mar 2011 12:35 AM PDT

There is a string of good news out of Japan this morning. Bloomberg reports Workers Prepare to Connect Power to Stricken Nuclear Plant

Power may be restored to one of the crippled reactors at Japan's damaged Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant, possibly today, improving the odds that workers can prevent a meltdown and further radiation leaks.

The U.S. military, which is flying unmanned surveillance drones over the 40-year-old power station about 135 miles (220 kilometers) north of Tokyo at Japan's request, said it is "cautiously optimistic" that the damage to the reactors can be contained. The risk of a meltdown has lessened after water was dumped on the site yesterday, said Thomas Graham, chairman of Lightbridge Corp., a McLean, Va.-based nuclear fuel developer, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

"We're optimistic that we'll continue to progress in this, and that worst-case scenario will never be encountered," Admiral Robert Willard, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, told reporters by telephone from Hawaii. The worst-case scenario would be if the effort to keep the cores of the reactors covered were abandoned, he said.

The possibility of a meltdown is "not off the table, but the more water that goes in there," the less the risk of a meltdown becomes," Graham said. "The reactor situation is definitely not deteriorating as it was and seemingly becoming stable and perhaps becoming more under control."

Water Pumps Have Been Restarted

Mike in Tokyo Rogers reports Success! NHK Confirms that Water Pumps Have Been Restarted

There is no article. Just a news flash at the top of NHK news site. NHK has confirmed that the water pumps have been successfully restarted.

The blue text at the bottom says, "Fukushima #1 Nuclear Plant #3 Reactor: Japan Self-Defense Force has restarted water pumps (at 2:03 pm)"