joi, 12 septembrie 2013

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Help Obama Kickstart World War III; He Clearly Needs Help!

Posted: 12 Sep 2013 06:06 PM PDT

In the wake of incredibly wimpish action by president Obama following his speech to the nation on Syria (for details, please see Short Translation of Obama's Speech: "Flip Flop"; Long Translation: "I Don't Have the Votes") inquiring minds have been asking "Hey Mish, WTF happened?"

That's a good question. And I can easily explain: The war supporters ran out of money and failed to convince the public that we desperately need WW III.

This is where you come in. The following video explains everything you need to know.



Link if video does not play: Help Kickstart World War III!

The video has been making the rounds, so perhaps you have seen it.

The sarcastic mocking of president Obama by the generally far-left group of Obama-supporting actors and comedians is quite telling.

We should all be thankful that Obama did not have the votes to kickstart WW III.

I am grateful that cooler heads (the average citizen) triumphed over the war-mongers like John McCain and John Boehner, and the complete hypocrites such as president Obama and Nancy Pelosi.

It's a rare victory. Let's hope it lasts.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Near-Record 20% of Americans Struggle to Afford Food and Basic Necessities; Who's to Blame?

Posted: 12 Sep 2013 12:45 PM PDT

The latest Gallup survey shows Near-Record Number of Americans Struggle to Afford Food.
More Americans are struggling to afford food -- nearly as many as did during the recent recession. The 20.0% who reported in August that they have, at times, lacked enough money to buy the food that they or their families needed during the past year, is up from 17.7% in June, and is the highest percentage recorded since October 2011. The percentage who struggle to afford food now is close to the peak of 20.4% measured in November 2008, as the global economic crisis unfolded.

Question: Have there been times in the past 12 months that you did not have enough money to buy food that you or your family needed?



This is only the third time in 68 successive months of Gallup and Healthways' tracking, which began in January 2008, that at least 20% of Americans said they struggled to afford food in the past year.

Americans' Access to Basic Needs Hovers Near Record-Low

Americans remain as likely to have access to basic necessities in general now as they were in October 2011, when it was at its lowest point. The Basic Access Index, which includes 13 questions about topics including Americans' ability to afford food, housing, and healthcare, was 81.4 in August, on par with the all-time low of 81.2 recorded in October 2011.

Who Does Gallup Blame?

Citing the Wall Street Journal, Gallup blames stagnant wages.
According to an August 2013 Wall Street Journal analysis of Labor Department data, "the average hourly pay for a nongovernment, non-supervisory worker, adjusted for price increases, declined to $8.77 [in July 2013] from $8.85 at the end of the recession in June 2009." Depressed wages are likely negatively affecting the economic recovery by reducing consumer spending, but another serious and costly implication may be that fewer Americans are able to consistently afford food and meet other basic needs.
Gallup also blames Republicans.
Federal government programs also play a role in addressing this issue. As food stamp (SNAP) enrollment increases, Republicans in Congress are proposing substantial cuts and reforms to the program, while Democrats are resisting such reductions. Regardless, food stamp benefits are set to be reduced in November after a provision of the 2009 fiscal stimulus program expires. Therefore, it is possible that even more Americans may struggle to afford food in the immediate future.
Who is Really to Blame?

  1. The Fed
  2. Fractional Reserve Lending (Central banks in general for sloshing money around). 
  3. Lack of a Gold Standard
  4. Congress (for throwing money at numerous programs)
  5. War-mongers

Raising the minimum wage does not fix the problem. And wasting money waging wars we cannot afford is counterproductive.

The two primary reasons are: fractional reserve lending and the Fed (central banks in general). Combined, the Fed, FRL, and lack of a gold standard enable Congress and the war-mongers to waste money.

Fantasyland Price Stability

The Fed and the ECB praise themselves as  "defenders against inflation". One look at health-care or education costs is enough to prove they are in Fantasyland.

Here are some charts to consider.

Milk



Crude



Cattle



Soybeans



Lean Hogs



Price Stability? Where?

Does any of that remotely look like "price stability"? Of course it doesn't.

And it's no wonder people are struggling. But throwing more money at aid programs is not the answer. Huge wage growth, especially the seriously misguided strike effort at McDonald's for $15 wages is not the answer either.

Symptoms of the Problem

  1. Decline in real wages
  2. People struggling to buy food and basic necessities

The decline in real wages is a symptom of the problem. So is the struggle to buy food and other necessities.

You do not cure problems by throwing more money at symptoms, especially when throwing money around is the essentially the problem in the first place.

The problem and the solution can never be the same, no matter how loud the socialists and the Keynesian clowns scream for more wealth distribution schemes and minimum wage hikes.

Who Benefits From Printing Money?

Printing money never solved anything but it sure does make life great for those with first access to it. Who is that? The already wealthy, the banks, and government bodies via taxation.

For further discussion, please see ...

Top 1% Received 121% of Income Gains During the Recovery, Bottom 99% Lose .4%; How, Why, Solutions

Reader Asks Me to Prove "Inflation Benefits the Wealthy" (At the Expense of Everyone Else)

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

94.4% of Crisis Aid Went to the Financial Sector; Surprise? Or Not?

Posted: 12 Sep 2013 10:26 AM PDT

Inquiring minds just might be asking "Where the hell did all the fiscal stimulus, financial aid, and monetary stimulus go?"

It's a damn good question.

And I have the percentage answer for Spain (by Spain's own admission). Results would be similar for any country you look at (including the US).

For example, every penny of QE went to Wall Street and distressed banks, not the average Joe on the street. Paying interest on reserves (then jacking up money supply so that reserves soared) was pure profit to the banks.

Via translation from El Blog Salmon please consider the financial sector took 94.4% of the public aid in 2011.
As if it was not clear who were the favorites of the State in the current economic crisis, comes the National Competition Commission (CNC) and makes it clear. According to the "V Annual report on public support in Spain" , published yesterday by this institution, 94.4% of the total volume of aid granted by the State in 2011 went to the banking sector.

Official reporting shows the banking sector received €84.19 billion in aid.

At the other end of the scale, the main victims of the economic crisis, citizens and businesses, just received  €4.5 billion to mitigate the devastating effects of the crisis. This is clear evidence about who the big government protected in this country.
Surprise? Or Not?

The percentages are hardly surprising. What is surprising is the implicit admission of theft by the government, explicitly to bail out the banks, to the demise of the working-class and everyone else.

The same thing happened in the US (and everywhere else). Percentages vary somewhat, but the theme is 100% correct:

El Blog Salmon concludes (my paraphrasing as this was a difficult translation) ...

"I think that the Government erred by rescuing the financial system. However pernicious the consequences of no bailouts to the financial sector, we would all be better off had that bailout not occurred."

I certainly agree with the above sentiment.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Japan "Wins" 2020 Olympics: Final Nail in Yen Coffin?

Posted: 12 Sep 2013 01:15 AM PDT

Japan is all aglow that it "won" the 2020 summer Olympics.
"When I heard the name Tokyo, I was so touched, overwhelmed," said Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister. "The joy was even greater than when I won my own election."

"Japan has seemed to be overshadowed by the rise of China and other developing nations," said Harumi Arima, an independent political analyst. "These Olympics will give Japanese a chance to feel reborn, to feel for themselves that Japan can still be vibrant."
Touching Indeed

Let's assume Japan clears its nuclear waste dump in time. Then let's assume the same rate of "success" in these Olympics as other nations experienced in past Olympics.

Success Rate

Fidelity discusses the Olympics success rate in Do investors in the Olympics ever win?
With the upcoming 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia and 2016 Summer Olympics in Brazil (as well as 2014 World Cup), now may be the right time to consider the implications of the world's biggest global sporting events for investors. To prepare for these events, Brazil and Russia are spending billions to modernize infrastructure, build stadiums, increase commerce, and promote tourism. To the casual observer, such activity might seem fit for economic expansion and strong investment performance.

However, history suggests the opposite: Mega-sporting events usually leave the host nation with budget overruns and massive debt, and event-driven investment strategies have rarely succeeded.

Case in point: An analysis of the Sydney Olympics' impact on GDP illustrates the gap between hype and reality, evidenced by the considerable gulf between pre-Olympics estimates of economic benefits compared with post-Olympic studies (see the chart right).



Present day: Preparations troubled in Brazil and Russia

According to a recent study by the University of São Paulo, Brazil will spend roughly $18 billion on infrastructure ahead of the 2014 World Cup, $14 billion of which will come directly out of Brazilian taxpayers' pockets. Expected outlays devoted to the 2016 Olympics are likely to be an additional $15 billion, for a combined total of $33 billion.8 If the Brazil Olympics do go over budget, it would be the second-most expensive Games ever.

Protests in Brazil

Scores of Brazilians have taken to the streets to protest these high costs. The initial demonstrations were in response to a proposed rate increase for bus and metro fares, but the dissent quickly spread to include excessive spending on stadiums, corruption, and poor public services. Matheus Bizarria, an NGO Action Aid worker, said Brazilians have reached the limit of their tolerance. "It's totally connected to the mega-events," Bizarria said. "People have had enough."
Cost of Hosting



Brazil is on a pace to hit the second highest amount spent to host an Olympic event ever. The expected payback is negative.

Infrastructure Costs

The Keynesian-clown fools in Japan cheer (now) but watch what happens as taxes rise to support ever-growing infrastructure costs on top of ever-growing nuclear cleanup costs.

Better yet, watch what happens when taxes don't rise to support ever-growing infrastructure costs on top of ever-growing nuclear cleanup costs.

Either way, Japan loses.

Japan does not need, and cannot afford to waste more money on infrastructure. Yet, it will have to raise taxes to meet this foolish expense or the Yen will take a hit.

This brings us back to prime minister Abe's statement: "When I heard the name Tokyo, I was so touched, overwhelmed. The joy was even greater than when I won my own election."

Rest assured this "joy" will not last long.

Final Nail in Yen Coffin?

Inquiring minds may be asking: Is this the final nail in the yen coffin?

Probably not. History suggests Abe has a gun loaded with coffin nails and he intends to use them all (until he is voted out of office - and at that time it will be far too late to save the yen). Time will tell.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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