Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Give America a Raise: Fire Obama, Eliminate the Fed; State of the Union Sap
- Hollande Plays "Mother May I"; Mish's 5 Giant Scissor Steps Proposal; Foreign Investment in France Falls 77%
- Tactical Rabbit, Money Laundering, and Outright Criminal Activity by Major Banks
- Credit Equals Gold No.1
| Give America a Raise: Fire Obama, Eliminate the Fed; State of the Union Sap Posted: 28 Jan 2014 09:14 PM PST In one of the sappiest, platitude-ridden state of the union addresses in history, president Obama said "Give America a Raise". I agree with the idea, not the implementation. President Obama pledged an Executive Order requiring federal contractors to pay their federally-funded employees a fair wage of at least $10.10 an hour "because if you cook our troops' meals or wash their dishes, you shouldn't have to live in poverty." Obama stated "Today, the federal minimum wage is worth about twenty percent less than it was when Ronald Reagan first stood here." While true, not once did Obama even hint at the source of the problem: Real wages have declined because government spends more than it takes in, and the Fed is happy to oblige by forcing interest rates lower, allowing just that. Rather than fight the real problem, Obama wants to attack the symptom: falling real wages. Mathematically his proposed solution cannot possibly work. The president even wants to expand on what clearly doesn't work, dragging Senator Mario Rubio into the picture. "I agree with Republicans like Senator Rubio that it doesn't do enough for single workers who don't have kids. So let's work together to strengthen the credit, reward work, and help more Americans get ahead," said Obama. Regarding the right to vote, Obama stated, "It should be the power of our vote, not the size of our bank account, that drives our democracy." On that, I could hardly agree more. So let's have genuine campaign finance reform, for both parties, including union sponsorship of candidates. Given that no one in either party wants that, it won't happen. Is it any wonder that for the first time in history, a majority of people in congress are millionaires! Regarding terrorist activities, Obama stated "We are clear-eyed about Iran's support for terrorist organizations like Hezbollah." OK so where the hell are the prosecutions for Money Laundering, and Outright Criminal Activity by major banks? In the sappiest part of his speech, president Obama referred to Sergeant First Class Cory Remsburg, who on his on his tenth deployment, was nearly killed by a massive roadside bomb in Afghanistan. I have nothing against those serving this country. However, I do have something against those put our armed forces in harm's way for no good reason at all. Instead of praising Cory Remsburg, president Obama should have admitted he personally, and needlessly, put Remsburg's life in jeopardy on a fool's mission. Sap and Platitudes As sappy as all that was (and it was the sappiest state of the union address ever), the official republican response was even worse. Here is full text of the Republican response to State of the Union. Not only did Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers praise Cory Remsburg, she offered the same tired, far-right platitudes bound to please the extreme-right, religious-wrong voters, while offending the crucial political independents. Republicans desperately need to throw warmongering and right-to-life policies in the gutter for more pragmatic approaches. Instead, Cathy McMorris Rodgers waved them in our face with subtleties regarding her child's Down Syndrome. If this was in response to Obama's platitude "women make up about half our workforce, but they still make 77 cents for every dollar a man earns". It was a serious mistake. Four Key Hints
I commend Rodgers for her care, but not everyone has the means to do anything other than dump their kids into the system or choose an abortion upfront. As an independent ready and willing to criticize both political parties, Rodgers response was far worse than Obama's sap and platitudes delivery. The saving grace is few bothered to watch it. At least I hope so. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 28 Jan 2014 04:35 PM PST With bloated labor costs, pension requirements, labor rules, strikes, CEOs held hostage (literally), and overall union inefficiencies, it's no wonder Foreign Investment in France Fell 77% in 2013. Releasing its first estimates for 2013 Tuesday, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development said that while foreign investment in the European Union increased from 2012, inflows to France fell by 77% to $5.7 billion, extending a decline that began with the 2008 financial crisis and was briefly interrupted in 2011. Foreign investment was last lower in 1987, and as recently as 2007, it peaked at $96 billion.Responsibility Pact Short Synopsis
Mother May I? No business in its right mind would accept that proposal. In the "Mother May I" game that Hollande appears to be playing, the best one can say is Hollande granted corporations a baby step in the right direction (yet coupled with "no you may not" restrictions). What's really needed is a vast array of giant scissor steps. Mish's Five Giant Scissor Steps Proposal
Unfortunately, that's just a start of the scissor actions needed. Please recall French government spending accounts for 56% of French GDP, highest in the EU. Unfortunately, France Minister of Industrial renewal has pledged to make matters worse (see France Minister of Industrial Renewal has New Target in his Sights). Regarding my opening comment on CEOs held hostage (literally), here's something from earlier this month that I have not commented on: French workers hold Goodyear execs hostage. A day later, Bloomberg commented In France, Kidnapping the Boss Usually Pays Off. I see these kinds of stories every day. It is difficult if not impossible to keep up with economic idiocies in France. I even have my own personal stories to report.
Looking for a roundup of economic ineptitude in France? I just happen to have 24 examples from 2013 alone: France in Review: Perfect Track Record of Economic Ineptitude. Rest assured the above 24-point list is woefully incomplete. Apologies offered. Hollande Off and Running Hollande has a fresh start in 2014. How is he doing? Please consider France Unemployment Hits New Record High; Hollande's November Pledge Reviewed. Finally, France is a major focus of my European deflation thesis as described in Deflation Will Return: Europe First, Then US; Global Supply Arbitrage. Looking for a global economic outlook? If so, please read the above link. All things considered, France was lucky foreign direct investment only declined 77%. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Tactical Rabbit, Money Laundering, and Outright Criminal Activity by Major Banks Posted: 28 Jan 2014 02:10 PM PST An interesting Video Interview With Whistleblower Everett Stern just came my way. In case you don't recognize the name, Stern disclosed the money laundering activities of HSBC, for which the bank was fined $1.9 billion. Chump change says Stern, who claims he was placed in the fraud detection unit (along with everyone else) precisely because they knew nothing about money laundering. So how did Stern catch the activity? He read a couple of books and a few weeks later discovered money laundering activity, lots of it. Moreover, Stern had proof it was purposeful, organized fraud as opposed to transactions just slipping through the cracks. Partial Transcript Here is a key snip of the transcript and interview of Everett Stern by Sophie Shevardnadze. SS: But, technically, how did you detect it technically? How does it happen? How did you detect suspicious transaction that could be linked to terrorism or drug cartels? ES: It was so obvious. It's because I have two brain cells in my brain and can do simple internet Google searches. This was not rocket science. For instance OFEC has a list of companies that the US cannot do business with, an OFEC sanction list, and so, for instance, Caribe Supermarkets, Tajco, the Tajideen Brothers, which were all linked to Hezbollah. Caribe Supermarkets is a supermarket chain based out in Gambia, and they are owned by Tajco, which is owned by Tajideen Brothers, which are based out in Beirut, and are financiers of Hezbollah. There were transactions going through HSBC and I saw it. ES: What's interesting is that it's not that it was hard to find the transactions, it was very easy. The real disturbing part is how they were doing it because these transactions, that were supposed to be stopped in the wire filter, were actually going through. They were going through because what HSBC employees were doing was adding dots and dashes and different numeric codings to the actual payments. The FBI later called it "stripping the payments". So the computer system…there wasn't a match with the transactions and they would go through. It was just blatantly obvious what they were doing, it just took me I guess just little extra effort to see how they were criminally allowing the terrorist funds to go through. Mish Comment: No one went to jail over this. I am not even aware that anyone was criminally charged. Here is another snip to consider. Subsequent emphasis in italics is mine. SS: If we abstract from the HSBC case, who is ultimately in charge of preventing money laundering in the US? Are they doing their job or does it have to be individuals like you who would actually step up? ES: The Department of Justice is not doing their job. Eric Holder specifically said during Senate hearings that prosecuting these banks criminally could cause a financial crisis. My argument to Eric Holder is that if we allow this terrorist financing to continue, and then the next 9/11 gets financed, I guarantee the next 9/11 will cause a financial crisis. What's happening now is that these bankers and management of large banks such as JP Morgan, HSBC – they're not being criminally accountable, so they can do whatever they want and they'll just be fined. HSBC was fined $1.9 billion, which seems like a lot of money, but that's actually only five weeks' profit for them and their stock actually went up when the announcement came out. It's really disgusting that the Department of Justice is not doing their job. If I were to donate $1 to Hamas or Hezbollah I would go to jail for life, and yet they're donating billions and that's okay. It doesn't make any sense. SS: You're saying that no one was held responsible or criminally charged, the FBI and the CIA didn't really follow up this case that you presented to them, governments are afraid to criminally prosecute banks like HSBC because of reasons linked to economic crisis – so could it be that they are complicit? ES: Yeah. Believe me, I'm banging my head against the wall with this one. I have risked everything and tried my hardest to get these people in jail. Right now the former managers that were my bosses who were subsequently fired from HSBC are now the heads. One of them is the head of compliance for TD bank, the other one is the head for the Chinese bank. There's no consequence there, these people are still doing the same thing in multiple organizations and that's not what America is about and that's not what justice is about. SS: So it seems like a country that's fighting a War on Terror is also financing it at the same time. ES: Yes. SS: I've read that this whole case with HSBC left you emotionally drained, financially devastated. How are you now? How are you doing? ES: I'm doing great; I've started my own company, Tactical Rabbit, which is an intelligence company. We became profitable five months ago, but it was extremely hard. I was working at PF Chang's restaurant as a waiter after I left HSBC, because I had no money, I had nothing left, and I literately walked into PF Chang's with the Rolling Stone article when I was featured in Rolling Stone, and I said to them "Look, I'm a whistleblower and I can't get work. I need a job, I never waited tables before. I'll do a good job for you guys," and they hired me. They said "Look, we'll give you a chance," and I took all of that PF Chang's money and I put it into Tactical Rabbit and that's how I launched this very, very successful company now. We're going to be a multimillion dollar company. Mish Thoughts Congratulations to Everett Stern who ought to sue HSBC and the justice department as well for his share of the money laundering fine collected. More importantly, the justice department ought to start criminal prosecution of anyone adding dots and dashes i.e. "stripping the payments". How high up would this go if those at the bottom of the rung were given reduced sentences for implicating those above them? I suspect nearly to the top, if not the top. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Posted: 28 Jan 2014 11:55 AM PST Interesting details have emerged regarding the Chinese trust fund that was on the verge of default a few days ago. In fitting irony, the name of the fund is Credit Equals Gold No.1. On January 15, Reuters reported China's ICBC says won't compensate investors in troubled shadow bank product. "Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, the world's largest bank by assets, said on Thursday that it has no plans to use its own money to repay investors in a troubled off-balance-sheet investment product that it helped to market."Investors should have taken a hit. Certainly the promised 10% yield was too good to be true. Heck, the name of the product itself was a likely indication of trouble. Tough Luck? Yesterday morning, the South China Morning Post commented It's tough, but China must let trust company products fail. Failed Trusts Did you catch the error in the headline "China must let trust products fail"? It's not a question of "letting the trust fail". The trust did fail. The assets backing the trust failed. The question at hand is not failure of the trust, but whether or not losses would be recognized. Without a bailout investors would have taken huge losses, and most likely totally wiped out. Moral Hazard Bailout in Progress Later yesterday a decision to do the wrong thing was made. Where the money came from is uncertain, but the bottom line isn't ICBC Offers Clients Option to Recoup Funds From Trust. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. said investors in a troubled high-yield trust can recoup their funds, averting a threatened default that underscored concern over the shadow-banking system and helped spur a selloff in emerging-market currencies and stocks.Getting it Wrong "A default was bound to lead to systemic risks that China is unable to cope with, so in that sense a bailout is a positive step to stabilize the market," said Xu Gao, the Beijing-based chief economist at Everbright Securities Co. Still, implicit guarantees distort the market and "delaying the first default means risks are snowballing," he said.Bubblicious Questions Bailouts and guarantees (implicit or explicit), coupled with loose money and manipulated interest rates are what causes these credit bubbles in the first place. Bailouts do nothing but encourage more of the same moral hazard investment behavior, all but ensuring still bigger bailouts down the road. There is an enormous credit bubble in China, guaranteed to come crashing down. Mystery Money The Financial Times reports China trust deal raises thorny questions. For global markets, the troubled product became emblematic of the risks that have built up in China's growing shadow banking sector. Non-bank institutions such as trusts now play a crucial role in providing funds to companies deemed too risky by regulators to borrow from the country's banks. Financing outside the formal banking system accounted for more than a third of the Rmb17tn total new credit issued in 2013.Bubblicious Refresher Course Shen Jianguang, an analyst with Mizuho Securities commented "This will help regulators push through these rules. It teaches everyone a lesson about the expansion of shadow banking" Shen is completely wrong. It's not the lack of regulations that caused this mess. It is central bank manipulation of money and interest rates that fostered shadow banking schemes. Indeed there is little difference between the credit bubble in China, and the housing and credit bubbles in the US that blew sky high in 2008 and 2009. Shen Jianguang seriously needs a Bubblicious Refresher Course: What Causes Economic Bubbles? When Do Bubbles Burst? Can the Fed Prevent Bubbles? Credit is Never Gold The Financial Times noted that investors were not happy to get their money back. "This is a war of attrition. We have gained the biggest mountain and now we must attack and seize the smaller hills," says one Shanghai-based investor who declined to give his name. Good grief. Investors in a coal mine that does not even exist (and won't due to plunging price of coal) ought to lose everything. Credit implies risk. There is no such thing as a 10% risk-free investment. The higher the promise, the greater the risk. Don't Want Credit Risk? Looking for something with no credit risk? Then buy physical gold and hold it. There is a risk of decline in the purchasing power of gold as the plunge from over $1900 an ounce to under $1200 an ounce shows, but there is no risk of default. Start of a Global Currency Crisis? With every passing day, odds of global currency crisis increase. Emerging markets, Latin America, Japan, Europe, and China are all in the mix. For further discussion, please see Start of a Global Currency Crisis? Looking for something that's not in the mix? Buy gold. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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