miercuri, 2 aprilie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Supreme Court Removes Campaign Caps; Worst Congress Money Can Bribe; Expect More Divisive Politics

Posted: 02 Apr 2014 10:30 AM PDT

In 2010, the Supreme Court ruled that corporations are people and in 2012 upheld that ruling. Those actions unleashed a flood of corporation and union-sponsored fundraising activities.

Today the Supreme Court Voided Caps on Total Campaign Giving by individuals.
A divided U.S. Supreme Court struck down decades-old limits on the total money donors can give to federal candidates and parties, issuing its biggest campaign-finance ruling since the 2010 Citizens United decision.

Voting 5-4 along ideological lines, the court today said the caps violated the speech rights of Shaun McCutcheon, an Alabama Republican official seeking to give candidates, parties and political committees more than the $123,200 maximum.

The court stopped short of undercutting a 1976 ruling that allows caps on contributions to individual candidates. For instance, donors will still be limited to giving $2,600 to a federal candidate for each election.

The loosening of campaign-finance restrictions has become a hallmark of the court under Roberts. The Citizens United ruling helped fuel an explosion of campaign spending, with spending from candidates, parties and outside groups topping $6 billion in 2012. Today's ruling may affect November's congressional elections, as Republicans seek to take control of the Senate.

Though today's ruling isn't likely to approach the effect of Citizens United, it will give more freedom to wealthy donors looking to use their money to make a political impact.

'Eviscerates' Laws

Taken together with Citizens United, the decision "eviscerates our nation's campaign-finance laws, leaving a remnant incapable of dealing with the grave problems of democratic legitimacy that those laws were intended to resolve," Justice Stephen Breyer wrote in dissent.

Justices Samuel Alito, Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia joined Roberts in the majority, with Thomas saying in a separate opinion that he would have gone further and overturned the 1976 ruling. Justices Elena Kagan, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Sonia Sotomayor dissented alongside Breyer.

The aggregate limits included a cap of $48,600 to federal candidates and $74,600 to political parties and political action committees during each two-year election cycle.

Those restrictions, which date to 1974, were designed to supplement better-known restraints known as base limits. Under those, donors can contribute a maximum of $2,600 to particular candidates per election, $5,000 per year to individual PACs and $32,400 per year to each national party committee. The limits are indexed for inflation and increase every election cycle.
Citizens United

The 2010 Citizens United ruling allowed unlimited corporate and union spending. The latest case focused on contributions, rather than spending. It raises questions about a landmark 1976 ruling, Buckley v. Valeo, which said the government had broad latitude to limit contributions to guard against corruption.

The Obama administration defended the aggregate caps, which the Supreme Court in Buckley said prevent "evasion" of the base limits. A three-judge panel used similar reasoning to uphold the caps last year.

The administration said that, without the caps, donors might be able to give large sums to a variety of candidates and political committees, anticipating that the money would be spent in support of a single favored candidate. Breyer said a wealthy donor could give $3.6 million to his political party and its candidates over a two-year election cycle.

Roberts dismissed that concern. "Experience suggests that the vast majority of contributions made in excess of the aggregate limits are likely to be retained and spent by their recipients rather than rerouted to candidates," he wrote.
Expect More Divisive Politics

These rulings will result in more extreme candidates on both sides of the aisle, essentially the worst candidates money can buy.

Unions and union advocates will promote extreme-left candidates while the war-mongers and the religious wrong will promote their brand of politics.

Expect "litmus" tests from each party when doling out campaign funds. Those in the middle will find  fewer and fewer candidates to chose from.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com  

Can a Fish Out of the Water Please Everyone at the Same Time?

Posted: 02 Apr 2014 09:55 AM PDT

After annoying the socialists with the appointment of right-winger Manuel Valls as his new prime minister, French president Francois Hollande went the other way by expanding the role of extreme left-winger and state interventionist Arnaud Montebourg.

Please consider Hollande boosts left in cabinet reshuffle.
President François Hollande has promoted prominent leftists in his revamped Socialist government days after appointing rightwinger Manuel Valls as his new prime minister.

In a move clearly aimed at appeasing unease in Socialist ranks about Mr Valls, Mr Hollande balanced the choice of his close friend Michel Sapin as finance minister with an enhanced role for controversial leftwinger Arnaud Montebourg.

Mr Sapin, a moderate who was briefly finance minister in the early 1990s, takes over from Pierre Moscovici with the task of steering France's wayward public finances under the close scrutiny of Brussels, Berlin and the country's other eurozone partners.

But the traditional role of the finance minister as overlord of the economy has been broken up, with Mr Montebourg, a strong state interventionist and fierce critic of Berlin-backed austerity policies, given charge of the wider economy, industry and digital development.

Mr Montebourg's promotion underscores Mr Hollande's concern to keep the leftwing of the Socialist party on board following the appointment of Mr Valls in the wake of a heavy defeat for the government in local elections last month. But it threatens to sow confusion over Mr Hollande's recent commitment to pro-business policies.

Mr Sapin, labour minister for the past two years, will have the tough task of persuading Brussels to give Paris more time to achieve its budget deficit targets as Mr Hollande shifts the emphasis of policy to growth and jobs generation following the election defeat.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who heads the eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, underscored the pressure on Paris by saying on Wednesday that "time was running out" for France to meet its budget deficit targets.
Hollande acts like a fish out of water, first flopping this way, then that, with no apparent strategy other than a desperate search for water.

Don't expect this strategy to please anyone, especially Brussels and Germany.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

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