miercuri, 23 iulie 2014

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

EU "Red Tape Hell"; Dust Settles on Appointment of Juncker; Time for an Up-Down Vote

Posted: 23 Jul 2014 09:18 PM PDT

Jean Claude Juncker (Mr. "Lie When It's Serious") is already accused of sending the UK down the drain.

Please consider British firms fear red tape hell as EU orders equality and green energy reports.
British companies will be forced to publish details of their environmental impact and efforts to improve "gender equality" under a diktat from Brussels.

Bureaucrats want all large firms in the European Union to include details of their policies on "environment, diversity and human rights" in their annual financial statements, it emerged last night.

The "corporate governance" directive has been drawn up by EU internal market commissioner Michel Barnier, a close ally of new European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker.

Under the plan, any company with 500-plus employees will be expected to make an annual "corporate social responsibility statement".

Simon Rose, of the anti-Brussels campaign group Get Britain Out, said: "The dust has only just begun to settle on Juncker's appointment and already we have a proposal to burden British business. It's just another example of excessive Brussels interference."

The campaign group claims each firm hit by the Brussels legislation will face an extra £4,000 a year in administration costs.

The directive requires firms to detail any "current and foreseeable" impact from their business on the environment, including "health and safety, the use of renewable and non-renewable energy, greenhouse gas emissions...and air pollution".

They will also have to list action taken to ensure gender balance in the workforce, respect for workers' rights and talks with trade unions.

Firms will be expected to outline their "diversity policy" in employing and promoting staff of different ages, genders and "educational and professional backgrounds". They should also "include information on the prevention of human rights abuses and instruments in place in order to fight corruption".
Only £4,000?

If this absurd ruling only costs £4,000 ($6814 at current rates) I will be amazed. Regardless, there is no indication madness will stop there.

  • What about financial transaction costs?
  • What about nonsensical UK subsidies for French farmers?
  • What about inane energy rulings?

The list is actually endless.

Does Cameron Have Any Credibility Remaining?

UK Prime minister David Cameron staked his credibility on a pledge to stop Juncker from becoming the next European Commission president. In doing so, Cameron made a fool out of himself.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel dumped Cameron like a hot potato once political winds shifted in Germany. (see Merkel Tosses Cameron Like Hot Potato; Cameron to Go Down in Flames Over Juncker).

Time for an Up-Down Vote

If Cameron had the same political sense as Merkel, he would put the up-down decision on UK membership in the EU to a vote right now. And if UK voters had any common sense, they would reject membership.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Ukraine Rebel Commander Admits Having BUK Missiles; Damning Contradictions?

Posted: 23 Jul 2014 02:56 PM PDT

Wednesday, at 2:28 EST Reuters published an exclusive interview with Alexander Khodakovsky of the so-called Vostok battalion - or eastern battalion: Khodakovsky Acknowledges Rebels had BUK Missiles.
In an interview with Reuters, Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion, acknowledged for the first time since the airliner was brought down in eastern Ukraine on Thursday that the rebels did possess the BUK missile system and said it could have been sent back subsequently to remove proof of its presence.

Khodakovsky blamed the Kiev authorities for provoking what may have been the missile strike that destroyed the doomed airliner, saying Kiev had deliberately launched air strikes in the area, knowing the missiles were in place.

"I knew that a BUK came from Luhansk. At the time I was told that a BUK from Luhansk was coming under the flag of the LNR," he said, referring to the Luhansk People's Republic, the main rebel group operating in Luhansk, one of two rebel provinces along with Donetsk, the province where the crash took place.

"That BUK I know about. I heard about it. I think they sent it back. Because I found out about it at exactly the moment that I found out that this tragedy had taken place. They probably sent it back in order to remove proof of its presence," Khodakovsky told Reuters on Tuesday.

"The question is this: Ukraine received timely evidence that the volunteers have this technology, through the fault of Russia. It not only did nothing to protect security, but provoked the use of this type of weapon against a plane that was flying with peaceful civilians," he said.

"They knew that this BUK existed; that the BUK was heading  for Snezhnoye," he said, referring to a village 10 km (six miles) west of the crash site. "They knew that it would be deployed there, and provoked the use of this BUK by starting an air strike on a target they didn't need, that their planes hadn't touched for a week."

"And that day, they were intensively flying, and exactly at the moment of the shooting, at the moment the civilian plane flew overhead, they launched air strikes. Even if there was a BUK, and even if the BUK was used, Ukraine did everything to ensure that a civilian aircraft was shot down."

Khodakovsky is a former head of the "Alpha" anti-terrorism unit of the security service in Donetsk, and one of the few major rebel commanders in Donetsk who actually hails from Ukraine rather than Russia.

There has been friction in the past between him and rebel leaders from outside the region, such as Igor Strelkov, the Muscovite who has declared himself commander of all rebel forces in Donetsk province.

Khodakovsky said his unit had never possessed BUKs, but they may have been used by rebels from other units.

"What resources our partners have, we cannot be entirely certain. Was there (a BUK)? Wasn't there? If there was proof that there was, then there can be no question."

Khodakovsky said it was widely known that rebels had obtained BUKs from Ukrainian forces in the past, including three captured at a checkpoint in April and another captured near the airport in Donetsk. He said none of the BUKs captured from Ukrainian forces were operational.
Another Side

I asked Jacob Dreizin, a US citizen who speaks Russian and reads Ukrainian to comment. Jacob responded ...
Interesting Mish

At least one part of the story is not credible: "Khodakovsky said it was widely known that rebels had obtained BUKs from Ukrainian forces in the past, including three captured at a checkpoint in April and another captured near the airport in Donetsk. He said none of the BUKs captured from Ukrainian forces were operational."

Three "BUKs" captured at a checkpoint in April? The war was was only starting in April, and the Ukrainians would have made a huge fuss of losing an air defense battery at that time.  The takeover of three BUK launchers with the attendant command-control vehicles, radar trucks, and other associated vehicles, operational or not, would have been front-page news here in the States, especially back in April when  news reports covered the takeover of police stations. Is there is a translation issue regarding the specific meaning of BUK?

Khodakovsky has been locked in a power struggle with Igor Strelkov and the other Russian transplants, especially after Strelkov evacuated Slaviansk and moved in to his turf in Donetsk city. He is not too popular in the movement, as he was responsible for the failed attack on the Donetsk airport on May 26th, which cost the lives of 60-70 militia and achieved nothing. In a subsequent interview, he admitted having MANPADS in advance of that attack, but said he made a decision not to field them as he did not think the Ukrainians would use helicopters. (They did, leading to the 60-70 deaths.)

He also stated that he does not care for the governments set up by the separatists in Donetsk and Lugansk. And, he claims to have good ties with his old friends in the Ukrainian security forces, and that he wants to cut deals with them rather than kill anybody. It is, in fact, unclear if he is a true "separatist" at all, or merely someone with warlord aspirations. But at the same time, as you can see in Reuters' last paragraph, he likes to promote himself as the intellectual alternative to the other rebels.

Curiously, Khodakovsky is getting further out ahead on this issue than US intelligence and the Ukrainian Security Service. Without a doubt, he is aiming for something
Misgivings

The conclusion of the Reuters article is interesting. Khodakovsky clearly has misgiving about his role, and the war in general.
"I'm not going to say Russia gave these things or didn't give them. Russia could have offered this BUK under some entirely local initiative. I want a BUK, and if someone offered me one, I wouldn't turn it down. But I wouldn't use it against something that did not threaten me. I would use it only under circumstances when there was an air attack on my positions, to protect people's lives."

He added: "I am an interested party. I am a 'terrorist', a 'separatist', a volunteer ... In any event, I am required to promote the side I represent, even if I might think otherwise, say otherwise or have an alternative view. This causes real discomfort to my soul."
Forgiveness?

Is Khodakovsky seeking forgiveness for his role and deaths in the conflict?

Damning Contradictions

Please note that the Reuters article contains various contradictions.

For example: "Khodakovsky said his unit had never possessed BUKs, but they may have been used by rebels from other units."

Now look back at the opening Reuters lead-in: "Alexander Khodakovsky, commander of the Vostok Battalion, acknowledged ... the rebels did possess the BUK missile system and said it could have been sent back subsequently to remove proof of its presence."

Nowhere does Khodakovsky state an "operational" system. In fact, he denies his unit has one, while questioning if other units did.

Here is the major contradiction: "What resources our partners have, we cannot be entirely certain. Was there (a BUK)? Wasn't there? If there was proof that there was, then there can be no question."

Khodakovsky never saw a Buk. Here is the precise statement as reported by Reuters: "That BUK I know about. I heard about it."

Question of the Moment

I am racking up questions of the day faster than there are days. Here is the question of the moment: 

If  Khodakovsky's unit did not have a Buk and if he wonders whether or not his partners have them, then how can he possibly tell Reuters "rebels did possess the BUK missile system"?

He can't. It appears to me Reuters may have stretched this interview quite a bit.

Yet, if one takes the interview entirely at face value, with quotes exactly as reported, while ignoring hearsay, the most damning allegation is this entirely believable snip, captured on Russian radar as well:

"And that day, they were intensively flying, and exactly at the moment of the shooting, at the moment the civilian plane flew overhead, they launched air strikes. Even if there was a BUK, and even if the BUK was used, Ukraine did everything to ensure that a civilian aircraft was shot down."

Once again, I am looking at all sides, hoping the truth finally emerges from disingenuous statements, outright lies, suppositions, and accusations from every corner.

If that interview was supposed to make the rebels look bad, closer analysis suggests it makes Ukraine look far worse.

As for Reuters, you be the judge.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Jay Taylor Interview of David Stockman and Mish

Posted: 23 Jul 2014 01:07 PM PDT

Yesterday, I had the pleasure of being interviewed along with David Stockman by Jay Taylor, a hard money advocate and author of Turning Hard Times Into Good.

The audio is about 32 minutes long. You can play it here: Mish and Stockman with Jay Taylor.

We discuss various aspects of the global economy: a pending asset implosion, happenings in Europe, China,  Japan, and US treasuries. In general, David and I see things alike, but differ a bit on US treasuries.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

"To Stop Being Trapped, Stop Lying"; Ukrainian Soldiers Tending Buks in Eastern Ukraine?

Posted: 23 Jul 2014 12:16 PM PDT

Anatoly Shary, the Ukrainian citizen who started the "312" Investigation (see Ukraine Caught in Third Major Lie? Magic Number 312) has a 1 minute 44 second video update in which he claims to know when and where Kiev made that bogus claim.



Link if Video Does not Play: Я нашел российский БУК

Captions in English

"Each conscious citizen must help the security service of his country. I finally decided to help, once and for all, the Security Service of Ukraine to fins the Buk that, according to the SSU, was moved towards the Russian border, and the fact of its movement became the proof of its Russian origin. The photo of the Buk was published not by me, but by the SSU on its official site. This proof was presented by the SSU even to some [sentence incomplete]. So the photo was made from a video, and the video was filmed at Yasinovataya traffic police checkpoint on March 17. Moreover, I'm so ready to help the Security Service of Ukraine, that will reveal a license plate number of a vehicle, which helped the Buk be transported. The license plate number is AE4483HE. [intense sarcasm coming up] Now I'm awaiting a reward from the Security Service of Ukraine for the fact that I helped expose the Russian spies."

The video concludes "In order not to be trapped in a bottleneck, you should stop lying".

This morning at 10:27 RT posted nearly the same collection of material I posted far earlier at 2:51AM (see link at the top).

More intense sarcasm coming up ...

As proof I am a Russian spy, paid for and owned by RT, I present Bogus photos of 'Russian' air-defense systems in Ukraine debunked by bloggers.

By the way, my real name is not Mish but Misha, and I await a big deposit of rubles as my reward.

Independent Verification

Yesterday the LA Times reported "U.S. intelligence agencies have so far been unable to determine the nationalities or identities of the crew that launched the missile. U.S. officials said it was possible the SA-11 was launched by a defector from the Ukrainian military who was trained to use similar missile systems. But U.S. intelligence agencies have independently verified photos posted to social media last week that show an SA-11 launcher driving toward the Russian border missing at least one missile, the officials said."

Independent verification of  social media? Really?

I suggest the US verify or disprove what Anatoly Shary has to say.

The Mystery of a Ukrainian Army 'Defector'

Please consider The Mystery of a Ukrainian Army 'Defector' by Robert Parry.

Citing the above Parry claims ...
That statement about a possible "defector" might explain why some analysts thought they saw soldiers in Ukrainian army uniforms tending to the missile battery in eastern Ukraine. But there is another obvious explanation that the U.S. intelligence community seems unwilling to accept: that the missile may have been launched by someone working for the Ukrainian military.

In other words, we may be seeing another case of the U.S. government "fixing the intelligence" around a desired policy outcome, as occurred in the run-up to war with Iraq.
Fixing Intelligence

Fixing intelligence to a desired view would not be shocking, it would be a given.

That said, I am rather curious about Parry's allegation "some analysts thought they saw soldiers in Ukrainian army uniforms tending to the missile battery in eastern Ukraine".

I cannot find any reference to that claim that does not lead back to Parry. Question of the day: precisely what analysts made that claim?

Question aside, I am willing to cut Parry some slack.

As Wikipedia explains Robert Parry is an American investigative journalist best known for his role in covering the Iran-Contra affair for the Associated Press and Newsweek, including breaking the Psychological Operations in Guerrilla Warfare (CIA manual provided to the Nicaraguan contras) and the CIA and Contras cocaine trafficking in the US scandal in 1985. He was awarded the George Polk Award for National Reporting in 1984. He has been the editor of ConsortiumNews.com since 1995.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Ukraine Caught in Third Major Lie? Magic Number 312

Posted: 23 Jul 2014 12:51 AM PDT

I have strong evidence from Ukrainian citizen Anatoly Shary that Kiev is caught in a third major lie regarding Buk deployment.

It takes a while to go over the evidence, condensed below, all having to do with the number 312 painted on a missile launcher.

Follow the Number

On March 8, Censor.Net, a Ukrainian Nationalist cite, says "Ukraine Defends Donetsk From Russian Incursion: 'Buk' Air Defense Rocket Systems Are Taking Up Positions. PHOTO + VIDEO"

The sub-headline reads: "A resident of Gorlovka, driving to work in Soledar, came across an entire convoy of military equipment. ...My coworkers and I counted 11 missile launchers ..."

Image Posted on Censor



I captured the entire page for posterity just in case someone needs it.

Here is a video posted on the same page.



I stopped the video precisely at the 37 second mark. This is what I saw:



SBU Headline July 19, 2014

A translated SBU headline reads "Russia is trying to hide the evidence of his involvement in a terrorist attack in the skies over Ukraine"

SBU is the "Security Service of Ukraine". The gist of the article is the SBU claims to show a Buk missile launcher headed back to Russia. An unmodified Google translation follows.

Unmodified Translation
SBU is unequivocal evidence that the aircraft "Boeing-777" shot down using the anti-missile system "Buk" M, which, together with the crew was transferred to Ukraine from Russia. This was announced by Head of SBU Vitaly Naida briefing on the crisis in the media center.

"SBU take measures within the investigation and gets a clear evidence of involvement in the terrorist attack of Russian citizens", - said Naida. He assured that the evidence already submitted to all international partners services. SBU is working directly with the Dutch police officers and law enforcement agencies of other countries whose citizens were victims of the terrorist attack on July 17.

Representative SBU showed reporters photos of the installation "BUK-M" on one of the streets Torez and photos following the installation of the column in the Donetsk region.

In addition, the published photo taken at the time of launching rockets in the vicinity of the village towards Torez Snow, which is clearly visible contrail rocket, which was shot down "Boeing-777" with peaceful people. Vitaly Naida said that the service is clearly identified starting place, which is located in an area controlled by terrorists and the Russian military.

SBU representative also said that the Russian side gave an indication of the terrorists to take out all Ukraine launchers "BUK-M".

July 18 at 2 am in the Luhansk region crossed the border with Russia two trucks, each of which was launcher "BUK-M." Oh 4 nights in the day crossed the state border of three tractors - one empty platform was one launcher with four missiles, and the last was probably fighting vehicle control module.

He stressed that Russia is trying to hide the evidence of his direct involvement in the attacks.
There are a number of images on that page, here is the last one.



The caption beneath that photo simply reads "When using photos and text information refer to www.sbu.gov.ua is required".

As much as I tried, I cannot make out the numbers on that missile launcher. But please consider the following article, video, and translated captions.

Falsification of Placing Buks by Anatoly Shary

Unmodified Translation
Known journalist and fraud exposer Ukrainian propaganda rasssledovanie spent around stuffing SBU information about air defense missile systems Buk, who was allegedly put the militia of Russia.

Analyzing the material provided by the power department of Kiev as evidence for the involvement of Russian plane crash, Anatoly Shary found on the photo irrefutable detail - Room missile system. It turned out that this is the Beech, proudly showed the Ukrainian press a month earlier. Air defense system with the same label appeared in the bravura material on how Ukrainian rocket men valiantly guard Ukrainian sky from aggressive Russian bear.
Anatoly Shary Video 



Starting at the 1:18 mark, the English transcription reads ... "The official site of the Service [that] is responsible for the security of my country published somehow very small pictures of a small resolution. it's so difficult to make something out. I managed to find photos of better quality, I managed to zoom them. Read the number. ... It doesn't matter where, the matter is the number. And the thing is the SSU [Security Service of Ukraine - SBU] completely *ucked up."

Image From Video

 

The video concludes "Stop the Moronic War"

Possibilities

  1. Anatoly Shary doctored the video
  2. Someone else doctored photos or video that  Anatoly Shary discovered
  3. 312 was captured by the rebels and is now in Russia 
  4. Kiev *ucked up

While the first three choices are remotely possible, door number 4 seems most likely.

Question of the day: OK Kiev - where is 312?

Lie Number 2

Lie number 2 was an incredibly sloppy Kiev production in which Ukraine released a video purportedly showing a Buk missile launcher headed back to Russia. The problem is the video shows a billboard that identifies the location as one held by Ukraine.



My understanding is the address on the billboard is "Krasnoarmeisk City, Dnepropetrovskaya Street #34", about 120 kilometers from the Russian border, in Ukraine-held territory, roughly 80 kilometers from the crash site.

If I can get an image of that billboard showing the same surrounding scenery, I will post it. If Kiev can provide an alternate location I will be happy to post it. If Kiev cannot, then they are caught in a lie, whether or not the billboard sign in the video is legible.

Lie Number 1

Lie number 1 pertains to Kiev splicing two distinct rebel conversations that Kiev spliced together to make it appear as if the rebels are discussing the downing of MH17.

In the first conversation, a rebel commander claims his people downed an unspecified aircraft. There is no reference within the conversation itself as to the time or date. In the second conversation, two men are talking about the wreckage of a civilian aircraft (one of them is apparently on the scene.)

There is no evidence within the second conversation to indicate that the speakers had anything to do with it, or that they are even involved in the war at all.

Supposedly this is the smoking gun. Well it wasn't, and there are some you-tube timestamp discrepancies as well.

Moreover, it appears the rebels were boasting of having shot down the plane two hours before it even happened. For details, please see No Smoking Gun.

Statesman-Like Response

I have spent a huge amount of time on this story, at least four hours on this post alone. My only interest is in getting to the bottom of it, no matter where the truth is.

A few readers see it my way. Reader Simon just pinged me with this email ...
Hi Mish

Thanks for your sensible reporting on MH17.  You are correct regarding the bias and distortion on both sides. The only statesman-like response has come from the Russians.  It is an absolute disgrace that Western politicians jumped into the fray with arm-waving accusations against the Russians. I am not aware of a single Western politician who has taken a circumspect stance (perhaps the MSM is to blame here). The duplicity, hypocrisy and lack of leaderships is staggering.

I am glad that you are one of the few who provide some thoughtful analysis.  What is tragic of course is that 'thoughtful' is the last thing on so many peoples minds. 

Kind regards

Simon
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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