Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
- Thrown Under the Bus: Another Look at the Self-Serving Launch of Ben Bernanke's Blog and the Brookings Institute's Pandering Role
- Trade Deficit Shrinks; First Quarter GDP Estimate Ticks Up to 0.1%
- Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Snapping String of 6 Straight Declines
| Posted: 02 Apr 2015 09:08 PM PDT Within hours of Ben Bernanke launching his blog at the Brookings Institute I commented Ben Bernanke, Confused as Ever, Starts His Own Blog to Prove It. By that time, a few hundred comments to his blog had already been approved. I made two comments of my own. I asked Bernanke about Fed-sponsored bubbles, inflation as measured by the CPI while ignoring assets especially in housing (see charts in the above link), and whether or not the Fed had any culpability for that had happened. I was 99% sure in advance my questions and comments would be deleted. They were twice. Instead of posting serious comments and questions, the Brookings institute fawned all over Bernanke by posting numerous glowing appraisals, thanks, and other trivia. Purpose of Bernanke's Blog The sole purpose of Bernanke's blog, and the Brookings Institute is shamefully willing to go along with it, is to vindicate Ben Bernanke and the Fed from their role in the housing bubble. Others have chimed in on Bernanke's post and have had their comments and questions deleted as well. Since the Brookings Institute is willing to degrade itself to such a level, I thought I would post a reply to Bernanke's Blog that I found noteworthy. Ben Bernanke's Apologia for the Fed I invite you to read Ben Bernanke's Apologia for the Fed by Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog. Instead of excerpting Pater's excellent post, I simply ask you to take a look for yourself. Pater makes a mockery of Bernanke's "natural interest rate thesis", of Bernanke's claim that the Fed does not distort markets, of the presumed role of the Fed as a benevolent institution, and of Bernanke's disingenuous comments about "throwing senior citizens under the bus". I made many similar comments, but Pater also brought into play a critical discussion on time preference and why natural interest rates can never be less than zero. Pater Tenebrarum was my primary teacher on Austrian economics and the Libertarian philosophy dating back to about 2001. His blog is one of few I bookmark and invariably read. If you are genuinely interested in the Austrian economic point of view, you may wish to bookmark his blog as well. His feed is also on the right side of my blog. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Trade Deficit Shrinks; First Quarter GDP Estimate Ticks Up to 0.1% Posted: 02 Apr 2015 10:18 AM PDT Trade Deficit Shrinks Inquiring minds are investigating the Commerce Department report on International Trade in Goods and Services for February 2015, for clues about first quarter GDP. Highlights
Balance of Trade  GDP Analysis Recall that exports add to GDP and imports subtract from GDP. Thus my first reaction to the report was that GDP estimates would go up. They did, but very slightly. Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model Yesterday, following an Unexpected Decline in Construction activity, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast dipped to 0.0%. Today following the shrinkage in the trade deficit, the forecast is back in positive territory at 0.1%. "The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.1 percent on April 2, up from 0.0 percent on April 1. Following this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast for the change in real net exports in 2009 dollars increased from -40 billion to -33 billion. The nowcast for real equipment investment growth declined from 7.5 percent to 6.1 percent following the international trade report and the Census Bureau's M3 manufacturing report." GDPNow Estimate for 1st Quarter  Another Sign of Slowing Global Economy The declining trade deficit is a good thing. However, the shrinking trade deficit is not as positive as it may look at first glance. It would have been far better had the trade deficit shrinkage been on rising exports. Instead, imports and exports are both down. That is yet another sign of the slowing global economy. Back in January, I forecast declining exports on the strength of the US dollar. Here we are. If oil ticks back up for any reason, so will imports. There is not a lot to cheer about in today's reports (Also see Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Snapping String of 6 Straight Declines). Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
| Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Snapping String of 6 Straight Declines Posted: 02 Apr 2015 09:21 AM PDT After six straight months of factory orders unexpectedly declining, economists apparently were finally convinced that bad weather would continue indefinitely. Factory orders rose, albeit barely, and last month was revised way lower, nonetheless it was amusing to see economists expectations were in the wrong direction for the seventh straight month. This month, factory orders unexpectedly rose. Consensus Estimates The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was for no growth, while orders rose a modest 0.2%. After 6 straight declines, factory orders finally moved to the plus column, up 0.2 percent in a February gain, however, that is tied largely to an upward price swing for petroleum and coal products. Another mitigating factor is a sharp downward revision to January orders, to minus 0.7 percent from minus 0.2 percent.Orders and Shipments  As you can see, that is not much to write home about, especially given that last month was revised from -0.2% to -0.7% Census Report Diving into the Census Report, for February vs. January (seasonally adjusted) we find new orders look like this:
The string of declines ended. Hooray! Otherwise, this looks like another bad month. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com |
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