marți, 3 noiembrie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Eurozone Target2 Imbalances Creeping Back Up

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 01:46 PM PST

Inquiring minds may be interested to note that Target2 Imbalances are creeping back up.



Recall that Target2 numbers largely represent capital flight from Eurozone peripheral countries to Germany.

Reader Lars writes

Hello Mish

The September Target2 imbalance is €770 billion, down from 777 billion previous month, but the trend looks higher.

Spain is stable at -228 billion whilst Italy has increased by 20 billion to 235.7 billion. End 2012 Italy was at 255 billion so Italian banks are clearly suffering from capital flight and heading back to 2012 crisis levels.

Spain, Italy and Greece total 570 billion which represents 74% of the total Target2 imbalance. Banks in these countries are likely insolvent and headed for more difficult times.

Target2 imbalances peaked at around €1 trillion in fall of 2012. That's when Draghi panicked. Despite the slight improvement this month, the trend is creeping up despite ECB QE injections totaling over €400 billion. During the same period Target2 has increased by about €100 billion.

This indicates banks in Spain, Italy and Greece are still under severe pressure due to capital flight.

Target2 has become a permanent funding source for insolvent banks and is the elephant in the room nobody is talking about. How are Italian banks supposed to replace Target2 funding of €235 billion. Or Spanish banks 228 billion?

Anyone who has deposits in these banks should be scared stiff. Confiscation, as always, will be the solution for the central government.

Regards

Lars
Target2 Refresher

For a more detailed explanation of Target2, please see Discussion of Target2 and the ELA (Emergency Liquidity Assistance) program; Reader From Europe Asks "Can You Please Explain Target2?"

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

US Middle-Aged Whites With No College Education Dying at Shocking Rate

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 09:40 AM PST

Mortality rates in advanced countries have been on a large and steady decline. However, a recent study shows A Group of Middle-Aged Whites in the U.S. is Dying at a Startling Rate.
A large segment of white middle-aged Americans has suffered a startling rise in its death rate since 1999, according to a review of statistics published Monday that shows a sharp reversal in decades of progress toward longer lives.

The mortality rate for white men and women ages 45-54 with less than a college education increased markedly between 1999 and 2013, most likely because of problems with legal and illegal drugs, alcohol and suicide, the researchers concluded. Before then, death rates for that group dropped steadily, and at a faster pace.

An increase in the mortality rate for any large demographic group in an advanced nation has been virtually unheard of in recent decades, with the exception of Russian men after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The rising death rate was accompanied by an increase in the rate of illness, the authors wrote in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"Drugs and alcohol, and suicide . . . are clearly the proximate cause," said Angus Deaton, the 2015 Nobel laureate in economics, who co-authored the paper with his wife, Anne Case. Both are economics professors at Princeton University.

"Half a million people are dead who should not be dead," he added. "About 40 times the Ebola stats. You're getting up there with HIV-AIDS."
Mortality Rate Comparison



Legend

  • USW- US Whites
  • FRA - France
  • GER - Germany
  • USH - US Hispanics
  • UK - United Kingdom
  • CAN - Canada
  • AUS - Austria
  • SWE - Sweden

Wealth Factor

Education and wealth tend to go together, and that's Another Reason a Large Group of Whites is Dying at a Higher Rate.
Researchers are blaming drugs, alcohol and suicide for a troubling increase in the mortality rate among a large group of white men and women in middle age. Another deadly factor in the trend could well be economic.

Demographers have long known that wealthier people tend to live longer than the poor -- it's one of the many advantages of affluence.
Inequality in Life Expectancy Women





Above: Life Expectancy for 50-Year Olds in a Given Year by Quintile of Income Over Previous 10 Years.

Income a Direct Cause?

Is income another "reason" or is income the determining factor in suicide and drugs use? It could be both as those with higher incomes are more likely to have better health care. But what about the US health care system vs the rest of the world?

In regards to the first article, are middle-aged whites more prone to suicide than other groups if they do not have a job?

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

Factory Orders Sink 11th Time in 14 Months

Posted: 03 Nov 2015 08:23 AM PST

Factory orders decline once again, in line with the Bloomberg Consensus, but last month was also revised lower.
New orders for the export-hit factory sector fell 1.0 percent in September for the 11th decline in 14 months with August revised 4 tenths lower to minus 2.1 percent. September orders for durable goods, initially posted in last week's advance report, are unrevised at minus 1.2 percent, held down in part by a downswing in civilian aircraft but nevertheless showing wide weakness. Orders for non-durable goods, pulled down by weakness for petroleum and coal products, fell 0.8 percent to extend a run of sizable declines going back to July. The factory sector has been struggling with weakness in the energy sector and especially weak foreign demand that for U.S. goods has been made weaker by the strength in the dollar.

Primary metals were down in the month as were both machinery and computers. Orders for core capital goods, despite the decline for machinery, were flat though shipments improved from an especially weak August. Industries showing gains for orders in the month include fabricated metals and electrical equipment, both getting a lift from what are strong gains in construction spending. Orders for vehicles were also up.

Outside of new orders, readings are negative with shipments down 0.4 percent for a third straight decline and with unfilled orders down 0.5 percent for a second straight decline. Declines in these readings, not to mention weakness in new orders, are not good for the sector's employment outlook. Inventories also declined, down 0.4 percent for a third straight decline.

With the factory sector in downturn, unwanted inventories are a heightened risk and manufacturers are keeping them in check, a factor that sharply held down third-quarter GDP growth and, unless orders pick up, may also hold down fourth-quarter GDP as well. The factory sector is struggling and is chief on the list of 2015 disappointments.
Orders and Shipments



Mike "Mish" Shedlock
Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.
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