Central Perk

miercuri, 23 mai 2012

Why the Marketing World Needs More Correlation Research

Posted: 22 May 2012 02:14 PM PDT

Do more tweets of a URL lead to higher search rankings on Google? Do longer articles get more shares on Facebook? Do emails that contain images have lower open rates?

These, and hundreds of other questions marketers are constantly asking, can be answered mathematically through correlation data. Yet, it seems there's an unfortunate bias against correlations, specifically in the SEO community. Part of this has to do with the well-known maxim "correlation is not causation." This is eminently true.

However, I LOVE to know correlation, even when it's wholly disconnected from causation, and I'm surprised more marketers rail against the acquisition of this knowledge. After all, we constantly use correlation-based observations in our everyday lives, scientists use it frequently to discover potential hypotheses and put forward experiments to test them.

For example, I personally care less about what Google actually uses as ranking elements in their massive algorithm than on what kinds of sites and pages tend to perform well. To my mind, it's much more fascinating to learn, that, for example, stories that appear in the Google News results are much more likely to have images originally sourced by the news publisher than it would be to find out that the algorithm uses an exponential decay factor on freshness based on inputs from a certain set of trusted account usage. The former is actionable; the latter much less so.

We can apply this to email outreach, public relations, talks at conferences, conversion rate optimization (a practice based almost entirely on correlation), and virtually any other quantifiable practice in our work.

Here are just a few examples of great work in the field of marketing that leverage correlation data:

Dan Zarrela's series on the Science of Social Media, Science of Retweets, Science of Timing and Science of Facebook Marketing
The Open Algorithm Project from Mark Collier
Correlation data in SEOmoz's own Ranking Factors Study
What Mike King learned analyzing 300K outreach emails w/ Buzzstream

I fail to understand why this work is criticized as being "just correlation; doesn't mean anything" rather than embraced as "awesome; new correlation data on which to form testable hypotheses." Yes - correlation does not imply causation. But it does show a relationship, and those relationships can form the basis of guesses and tests. I find it challenging to argue why this work should not be done and shared, yet the bias is clearly out there.

Of course, there's always the danger of presenting correlation research which is then misinterpreted or misused, as the folks from PHDComics brilliantly illustrated below:

But, I'd rather risk some misunderstanding and have the data available than not investigate the connections between things in the marketing world out of fear.

Here's just a few ideas for correlation-based research that I'd love to see someone put together:

Correlation between a topic/phrase/brand trending on Twitter and search volume spiking on Google
Correlation between Facebook shares, Tweets and Google+ shares for URLs across various industries (where are some networks potentially stronger/weaker, what are the outliers, etc)
Correlation between amount of funding and revenue/growth/success across industries (think this would be fascinating to entrepreneurs)
Correlation between types of share buttons used on a website and quantity of shares received
Correlation between # of email subscribers to an RSS feed and the rankings / social shares of that feed's content
Correlation between search rankings and RSS feed inclusion overall (do URLs that are included in feeds tend to perform better than those that aren't?)
Correlation between sentiment (positive, negative, neutral) of content on various sites and their success in social media
Correlation between social shares and traffic
Correlation between Klout score and traffic driven to URLs shared (to see if Klout lines up with how much traffic that person's tweets/shares drive)
Correlation between having a testimonial, physical address, email address, and/or phone number on the page and higher/lower rankings in Google's search results

If you or your team feel confident, capable, and excited about potentially doing this work but need some funding or publishing support, we'd love to talk. Just drop me an email (rand followed by the @ and seomoz dot org).

p.s. Check out Dr. Pete's excellent "Mathographic" on correlation vs. causation to learn more about the difference and the nuances.

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Watch a Concert at the White House

Your Daily Snapshot for
Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Watch a Concert at the White House

Over the past several years, dozens of musicians and performers have come to perform at the White House in celebration of American musical culture.

We've put together a brand new collection of those performances, from Paul McCartney to John Legend, and now you can watch them all in one place.

Check out all the videos on WhiteHouse.gov/Performances:

Seth's Blog : Dancing on the edge of finished

Dancing on the edge of finished

Before, when your shift was done, you were finished. When the inbox was empty, when the forms were processed, you could stop.

Now, of course, there's always one more tweet to make, post to write, words with friends move to complete. There's one more bit of email, one more lens you can construct, one more comment you can respond to. If you want to, you can be never finished.

And that's the dance. Facing a sea of infinity, it's easy to despair, sure that you will never reach dry land, never have the sense of accomplishment of saying, "I'm done." At the same time, to be finished, done, complete--this is a bit like being dead. The silence and the feeling that maybe that's all.

For the marketer, the freelancer and the entrepreneur, the challenge is to level set, to be comfortable with the undone, with the cycle of never-ending. We were trained to finish our homework, our peas and our chores. Today, we're never finished, and that's okay.

It's a dance, not an endless grind.

• Email to a friend •

marți, 22 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Germany Rules Out Eurobonds for 104th Time; Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don't
Gold Does Not Pay Interest (Neither Do Dollars in Your Wallet); Questions On Swapping Gold For Silver; Gold and Gold Shares Bottoming?
Greek Voters Need to Look Beyond the Lies of Bloomberg, Merkel, ECB, IMF, Ekathimerini; Greece Nightmare Coming or Already at Hand?

Germany Rules Out Eurobonds for 104th Time; Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don't

Posted: 22 May 2012 02:21 PM PDT

I have no idea what the actual number of times Germany Has ruled out Eurobonds. It could be 504 or even 1004. I Made up the number 104 which simply means "a lot".

Nonetheless, the Eurobond idea resurfaces every other week or so, and every time, someone from Germany (typically Merkel, the Bundesbank, or the Finance Minister) rules them out.

Once again, this time under pressure from French president François Hollande, Germany rules out common euro bonds.

Germany refused to share the debt burden of stressed eurozone peers on Tuesday, ignoring two of the most influential international economic bodies which offered support for proposals championed by Paris, Rome and Brussels ahead of a summit.

Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, has argued that any co-mingling of eurozone debt would remove incentives for southern economies to adopt structural reforms. The calls from the International Monetary Fund and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development came on the eve of Wednesday's EU summit.

François Hollande, France's new president, has strongly backed common eurozone bonds – which would ease funding constraints for the eurozone's stressed periphery but potentially raise German borrowing costs by diluting its creditworthiness across the currency union.

German officials made clear the idea was a non-starter in Berlin.

"There is no way of introducing them under the current [EU] treaties. Indeed, there is an explicit ban on them," one senior German official said, adding Berlin would not drop its opposition in the foreseeable future. "That's a firm conviction which will not change in June."

Diplomats said the summit, which just last week looked like it would be a highly scripted affair on European growth, had become increasingly unpredictable, with leaders struggling with how to respond to the havoc wreaked by political instability in Greece. Officials emphasised that no formal decisions would be taken.

The euro bonds debate could produce fireworks between Mr Hollande and Ms Merkel – a possibility that has captivated officials involved, given the comparatively harmonious Franco-German relationship in the latter years of Nicolas Sarkozy's tenure. But most diplomats believe Ms Merkel would succeed in blocking any proposal, producing more smoke than fire.

Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don't;

"They say that when Germany and France don't co-operate, we have a problem," one senior diplomat from a smaller EU country said. "And when they do, we have a problem, too."

The paragraph from the article sums up the situation nicely. Europe is scrambling madly for a solution acceptable to everyone, but the only solution that works is the one no one wants to hear: a breakup of the eurozone.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Gold Does Not Pay Interest (Neither Do Dollars in Your Wallet); Questions On Swapping Gold For Silver; Gold and Gold Shares Bottoming?

Posted: 22 May 2012 09:37 AM PDT

Please consider an interview with Adam Fleming and James Turk on precious metals and mining. James Turk is founder of GoldMoney.

Interview Synopsis

Adam Fleming, Chairman of Wits Gold and Fleming Family & Partners, discusses the gold bull market with GoldMoney's Chairman James Turk. Topics include metal price action, the eurozone's debt crisis, and mining in South Africa.

Adam points out that gold bull markets usually result in a 1:1 Dow/Gold ratio, something that he expects to see happen in the coming years. In other words, it is still a great time to buy gold.

Adam is pessimistic about the eurozone, and thought plans for European Monetary Union were delusional, on account of the differences in culture and political economy between different European Union countries. He also discusses his mining experience in South Africa, and why – contrary to much negative press the country gets – it is actually still a great place to live and work. He expects companies to increase their mining investments in the Witwatersrand Basin, and thinks that this region will remain the world's premier gold mining location.

This video was recorded on May 18 2012 in Jersey, British Channel Islands.

Relationship With GoldMoney

Once again I need to point out I have a relationship with GoldMoney.

I have no comment on the relative value of South Africa miners or any set of miners from any country vs. another country. Instead, I suggest in general that miners and gold are undervalued here.

The interesting part of the interview is where James Turk and Adam Fleming discuss interest rates and currencies.

Gold Does Not Pay Interest (Neither Do Dollars in Your Wallet)

The knock on gold is that it does not pay interest. However, as Turk points out, the US dollar bears no interest either. Nor does the Australian dollar, the Loonie, the Euro, or any other currency.

Currencies only bear interest if you loan the money out, thereby converting the currency into a financial asset. Financial assets have risk as we have seen with corporate defaults, bankruptcies of GM, Lehman, Worldcom, and especially the collapse of the housing market in the US.

A collapse of the housing market in Australia and China is underway now as well. In short, the only way to collect interest is to take risk.

Please note that aFull-Fledged European Bank Run is underway now and the reason is fractional reserve lending.

In the above link I explain ....

Why ECB Deposit Insurance is Not the Answer to a Run on the Bank
How FDIC Played a Part in the US Real Estate Bust
That Monetarist Fools are Everywhere
Why People Believe in Gold

As noted previously: For the sake of full disclosure, my physical precious metals holdings are now entirely at GoldMoney and I have an affiliate relationship with them.

If anyone wants information about GoldMoney or investing in physical gold and silver in general, please Email Mish

Questions On Swapping Gold For Silver

Numerous people have asked about my post on May 1, I'm Swapping Some Gold for Silver.

There is little to tell. I decided for a portion of my assets I was willing to take the risk-reward setup of silver vs. gold.

While gold is money, I do not know if the free market would turn to silver as money or not.

Silver certainly has a major industrial component, while gold does not, and that makes silver more vulnerable than gold to a global slowdown.

After swapping all my silver for gold (See Taking Silver Profits - Swapping Silver for Gold April 27, 2011) I simply decided to take a little more risk in silver.

Clearly I was early. Should silver get to my original target of the low $20's I will swap more gold for silver. Perhaps silver gets to that price, perhaps not. I do not know, nor does anyone else. At least I do not pretend to.

There is little more that I can add other than silver is more volatile than gold and I still believe overweighting gold vs. silver substantially is a good idea.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Greek Voters Need to Look Beyond the Lies of Bloomberg, Merkel, ECB, IMF, Ekathimerini; Greece Nightmare Coming or Already at Hand?

Posted: 21 May 2012 11:14 PM PDT

A half-baked editorial on Bloomberg, full of one-sided distortion, warns Greek Voters Need to Look Beyond Syriza's Dangerous Lies.

Tsipras and his Syriza party are selling the Greek people a falsehood: namely, that Greece can renounce the terms of its bailout agreements with the euro-area governments and still receive their money. If voters believe him, and he attracts enough votes in elections on June 17 to follow through with his threats, then his country, Europe and the global economy will live for years with the consequences.

Tsipras hardly has a mandate -- he won 16.8 percent of the vote on May 6, and may increase that to 20 percent or more in June. But polls suggest Syriza is now fighting for first place with the center-right New Democracy party. In Greece, that matters, because the top party gets an extra 50 seats in the 300-seat parliament.

Europe's politicians, across the political spectrum, need to make clear the distinction between Syriza and other parties that disagree with Europe's austerity strategy. They need to say, repeatedly, that they want to help Greece, but they cannot, and it cannot remain in the euro, if its leaders simply abandon the commitments the country signed.

Greeks need to know that when they vote on June 17. And they need to know that what Syriza and its young leader are telling them is a lie.

Snakeoil vs. Lies

It's certainly true that it is highly unlikely for Greece to stay in the eurozone if it defaults on debt.

I am not a fan of lies (and I have pointed out lies by Tsipras). However, I am not a fan of snakeoil, thievery, and one-sided analysis either.

Snake Oil and One-Sided Analysis

Check out the Bloomberg hypocrisy in this statement: "Other Greek politicians say they'll seek to renegotiate the austerity package, and Europe may now listen."

Bloomberg knows full well those are blatant lies. Bloomberg could have and should have blasted the New Democrats and Pasok leaders for those lies (but chose not to).

Moreover, Bloomberg knows full well nearly all of Greece is dead set against more austerity measures. Bloomberg also knows full well if New Democracy and Pasok came flat out and said the deal will not be renegotiated they would be trounced to smithereens in the next election.

Bloomberg Hypocrisy

Bloombeg ignores the lies of Pasok and New Democracy while blasting a similar lie made by Syriza.

In essence Bloomberg wants to decide which set of lies is acceptable and which isn't.

In contrast, I have pointed out the lies made by all of them.

If Not Now When?

Merkel, the IMF, the ECB, and all the eurocrats in Brussels know another election is coming up. If terms of the bailout were to be renegotiated ever, logic would dictate now is the time.

Are we supposed to believe there will be a significant change of heart in Germany and Brussels after another Troika-clown is Prime Minister?

The rest of Europe is not doing anything to help Greece.

Lending Greece money in which most of the money goes straight back to the lenders to pay interest is not going to help Greece. Nor are hikes in the VAT and other taxes.

Certainly the Pact With the Devil Over Gold is not in Greece's best interest.

Simply put, Tsipras is correct in his desire to tell the Troika to go to hell. The rest of his message is clearly a lie, but at least Tsipras has the essential idea: The only way Greece can get out of its odious debt is to default.

Greece Nightmare Coming or Already at Hand?

The Greek website Ekathimerini is on a major fearmongering campaign as evidenced by Nightmare foretold if Greece heads for euro exit

In Athens, the homeless are on the streets in growing numbers, soup kitchens feed twice as many people as a year ago, and the poor are diving into garbage bins in search of scrap they can sell.

Greece is close to breaking point as it struggles with austerity targets set by creditors, but this is just a foretaste of the nightmare of unrest, hunger and even anarchy that could engulf the debt-crippled nation if it is forced out of the euro.

If the exact economic impact of such a move is hard to nail down - newly issued drachmas devalued by up to 70 percent, runaway inflation, a banking meltdown, a collapse in trade - the implications for ordinary Greeks crushed by the debt crisis are even harder to predict.

Without international bailout cash, salaries and pensions would go unpaid and violence, political extremism and uncontrolled emigration could quickly follow.

Dose of Reality

Let's stop right there for a little dose of reality. The first paragraph alone shows Greece is already in a nightmare scenario.

Greece would have been better off defaulting three years ago, two years ago, and last year.

Yet here we are with Bloomberg and Ekathimerini (among numerous others) fearmongering about a Greek exit.

They should have been equally adept at raising issues why Greece should not be in the Eurozone in the first place.

Since that is water over the dam already, the pertinent question is what is best for Greece going forward. I propose that another 10 years of austerity and depression is not the answer. I also believe that is what Greece is doomed to if it manages to stay in the eurozone that long.

Fearmongering by Ekathimerini Resumes With Intensity

Let's return now to Ekathimerini for some massive fearmongering.

Provopoulos warned as long ago as December that a return to the drachma would be «real hell», with Greeks forced to resort to barter during the transition period between the two currencies, «trading a kilo of olive oil for three kilos of flour».

"NIGHTMARE SCENARIO"

"There will be shortages in basic staples. Without fuel, the army and the police would not be able to move their vehicles.

A former finance minister, Yiannos Papantoniou, saw trouble ahead nearly a year ago: «Greece would not be able to support 11 million people so there will be huge emigration flows,» he told Reuters Insider television last July.

«Disruptions, social disruptions will come. I would say a regime of total anarchy."

What's Best for Greece

Greece needs to do what is best for Greece.

Short-term there will likely be intense breakup pain in Greece if it exits the eurozone. However, if Greece manages its cards correctly, Greece will recover far faster by telling the Troika to go to hell than by living the nightmare for 10 more years.

Icelandic Solution

Greece and Iceland are not the same. Iceland has exports and a work ethic. However, the facts show that Iceland recovered far faster because it had the courage to default, telling eurocrats where to go.

Simply put, Greece has nothing to lose and everything to gain by exiting the euro, the exact opposite of what Bloomberg and most of mainstream media would have you believe.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List

Damn Cool Pics

The Internet In 2015 Is The Down Of The Zettabyte Era [Infographic]

Posted: 22 May 2012 11:09 AM PDT

Today we live in a world of petabytes and exabytes but according to the latest findings from the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), we'll need to add the term "zettabyte" to our vocabulary by 2015.

So, how much exactly is a zettabyte?

A zettabyte is roughly 1000 exabytes. To place that amount of volume in more practical terms, an exabyte alone has the capacity to hold over 36,000 years worth of HD quality video…or stream the entire Netflix catalog more than 3,000 times. A zettabyte is equivalent to about 250 billion DVDs.

The infographic below is an excellent representation of how much internet will grow in 2015?

The credit goes to Cisco who compiled these excellent stats into an amazing infographic.

Click image to see a larger version.

Via Cisco

Russian Teens Film Their Insane Bridge Climb Above Russky Island Bridge

Posted: 21 May 2012 08:55 PM PDT

19-year-old photographer Vitaly Raskalov and two friends climbed the Zolotoy Rog Bridge in Vladivostok, Russia. The next day, they climbed the even higher Russky Island Bridge. Not surprisingly, these kids were arrested and fined after posting the evidence of their escapade atop the Russky Island Bridge. The fine was the equivalent of ten U.S. dollars, but perhaps the fine dished out by Mom and Dad was more appropriate.

Via The Moscow Times

miercuri, 23 mai 2012

Why the Marketing World Needs More Correlation Research

Why the Marketing World Needs More Correlation Research

Watch a Concert at the White House

Seth's Blog : Dancing on the edge of finished

Dancing on the edge of finished

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marți, 22 mai 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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Damn Cool Pics

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miercuri, 23 mai 2012

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