vineri, 3 aprilie 2015

Seth's Blog : The hard part about surfing

The hard part about surfing

Surfing, the conceptual kind, is more essential than ever, it's not optional.

And the hardest part of surfing, by far, is paddling out, not surfing in.

Carrying the board, getting back into the water, paddling through the waves, waiting for the next set...it's exhausting, and surfers spend far more time doing this than they do on the other part.

Having the guts to surf is what change demands. And finding the stamina to paddle back out is a key part of surfing.

       

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joi, 2 aprilie 2015

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Thrown Under the Bus: Another Look at the Self-Serving Launch of Ben Bernanke's Blog and the Brookings Institute's Pandering Role

Posted: 02 Apr 2015 09:08 PM PDT

Within hours of Ben Bernanke launching his blog at the Brookings Institute I commented Ben Bernanke, Confused as Ever, Starts His Own Blog to Prove It.

By that time, a few hundred comments to his blog had already been approved. I made two comments of my own.

I asked Bernanke about  Fed-sponsored bubbles, inflation as measured by the CPI while ignoring assets especially in housing (see charts in the above link), and whether or not the Fed had any culpability for that had happened.

I was 99% sure in advance my questions and comments would be deleted. They were twice.

Instead of posting serious comments and questions, the Brookings institute fawned all over Bernanke by posting numerous glowing appraisals, thanks, and other trivia.

Purpose of Bernanke's Blog

The sole purpose of Bernanke's blog, and the Brookings Institute is shamefully willing to go along with it, is to vindicate Ben Bernanke and the Fed from their role in the housing bubble.

Others have chimed in on Bernanke's post and have had their comments and questions deleted as well.

Since the Brookings Institute is willing to degrade itself to such a level, I thought I would post a reply to Bernanke's Blog that I found noteworthy.

Ben Bernanke's Apologia for the Fed

I invite you to read Ben Bernanke's Apologia for the Fed by Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog.

Instead of excerpting Pater's excellent post, I simply ask you to take a look for yourself. Pater makes a mockery of Bernanke's "natural interest rate thesis", of Bernanke's claim that the Fed does not distort markets, of the presumed role of the Fed as a benevolent institution, and of Bernanke's disingenuous comments about "throwing senior citizens under the bus".

I made many similar comments, but Pater also brought into play a critical discussion on time preference and why natural interest rates can never be less than zero.

Pater Tenebrarum was my primary teacher on Austrian economics and the Libertarian philosophy dating back to about 2001. His blog is one of few I bookmark and invariably read.

If you are genuinely interested in the Austrian economic point of view, you may wish to bookmark his blog as well. His feed is also on the right side of my blog.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Trade Deficit Shrinks; First Quarter GDP Estimate Ticks Up to 0.1%

Posted: 02 Apr 2015 10:18 AM PDT

Trade Deficit Shrinks

Inquiring minds are investigating the Commerce Department report on International Trade in Goods and Services for February 2015, for clues about first quarter GDP.

Highlights

  • Exports were $186.2 billion, down $3.0 billion from January.
  • Imports were $221.7 billion, down $10.2 billion from January.
  • Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $ 2.6 billion, or 3.2 percent, from the same period in 2014.
  • Year-to-date exports decreased $5.3 billion or 1.4 percent.
  • Year-to-date imports decreased $7.9 billion or 1.7 percent.

Balance of Trade



GDP Analysis

Recall that exports add to GDP and imports subtract from GDP. Thus my first reaction to the report was that GDP estimates would go up. They did, but very slightly.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model

Yesterday, following an Unexpected Decline in Construction activity, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast dipped to 0.0%.

Today following the shrinkage in the trade deficit, the forecast is back in positive territory at 0.1%.

"The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2015 was 0.1 percent on April 2, up from 0.0 percent on April 1. Following this morning's international trade release from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast for the change in real net exports in 2009 dollars increased from -40 billion to -33 billion. The nowcast for real equipment investment growth declined from 7.5 percent to 6.1 percent following the international trade report and the Census Bureau's M3 manufacturing report."

GDPNow Estimate for 1st Quarter



Another Sign of Slowing Global Economy

The declining trade deficit is a good thing. However, the shrinking trade deficit is not as positive as it may look at first glance.

It would have been far better had the trade deficit shrinkage been on rising exports. Instead, imports and exports are both down. That is yet another sign of the slowing global economy.

Back in January, I forecast declining exports on the strength of the US dollar. Here we are. If oil ticks back up for any reason, so will imports.

There is not a lot to cheer about in today's reports (Also see Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Snapping String of 6 Straight Declines).

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com 

Factory Orders Unexpectedly Rise Snapping String of 6 Straight Declines

Posted: 02 Apr 2015 09:21 AM PDT

After six straight months of factory orders unexpectedly declining, economists apparently were finally convinced that bad weather would continue indefinitely.

Factory orders rose, albeit barely, and last month was revised way lower, nonetheless it was amusing to see economists expectations were in the wrong direction for the seventh straight month.

This month, factory orders unexpectedly rose.

Consensus Estimates

The Bloomberg Consensus estimate was for no growth, while orders rose a modest 0.2%.

After 6 straight declines, factory orders finally moved to the plus column, up 0.2 percent in a February gain, however, that is tied largely to an upward price swing for petroleum and coal products. Another mitigating factor is a sharp downward revision to January orders, to minus 0.7 percent from minus 0.2 percent.

Durable goods show broad weakness with orders down 1.4 percent in data initially posted last week. Most readings show significant declines and underscore this morning's export dip in the international trade report and the Fed's concerns over weak export markets and the negative effects of the strong dollar. Core capital goods are down 1.1 percent in the month for a 6th straight decline in a reading that points to a lack of business confidence and business investment.

Total shipments bounced back 0.7 percent in February but follow a 2.3 percent plunge in January and which holds down factory contribution to first-quarter GDP. A clear negative is a 3rd straight decline for unfilled orders, down 0.5 percent for what is now the weakest string since way back in the recession days of late 2009. A lack of unfilled orders will not encourage manufacturers to add to their workforces. One positive is inventories which are less heavy, up only 0.1 percent and bringing down the inventory-to-shipments ratio to 1.35 from January's recovery high of 1.36.

The main positive in today's report is the non-durables component where a 1.8 percent gain ends 7 straight declines, declines all tied to oil-price effects. But the weakness in durables, tied to foreign demand, is becoming a significant negative for the economic outlook.
Orders and Shipments



As you can see, that is not much to write home about, especially given that last month was revised from -0.2% to -0.7%

Census Report

Diving into the Census Report, for February vs. January (seasonally adjusted) we find new orders look like this:

  • All Manufacturing: +0.2%
  • ....Excluding Transportation: +0.8%
  • ....Excluding Defense: +0.4%
  • ....With unfilled orders -2.0%
  • Durable Goods -1.4%
  • Nondurable Goods +1.8
  • Furniture -2.4%
  • Motor Vehicles , Bodies, Parts -1.2%

The string of declines ended. Hooray! Otherwise, this looks like another bad month.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com

Damn Cool Pics

Damn Cool Pics


The Best Memes From The Walking Dead Season 5

Posted: 02 Apr 2015 11:10 AM PDT

Season 5 of "The Walking Dead" may be over but when it comes to memes it's the gift that just keeps on giving.














It's Your Turn: Now Accepting Community Speaker Pitches for MozCon 2015 - Moz Blog


It's Your Turn: Now Accepting Community Speaker Pitches for MozCon 2015

Posted on: Thursday 02 April 2015 — 02:12

Posted by EricaMcGillivray

Yep, it's that time of year, friends. Time to submit your online marketing talk pitch for MozCon 2015. I'm super excited this year as we'll have 6 community speaker slots! That's right—you all are so amazing that we want to see more from you.

The basic details:

  • To submit, just fill out the form below.
  • Talks must be about online marketing and are only 15 minutes in length.
  • Submissions close on Sunday, April 12 at 5pm PDT.
  • Final decisions are final and will be made in late April.
  • All presentations must adhere to the MozCon Code of Conduct.
  • You must attend MozCon in person, July 13-15 in Seattle.
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If you are selected, you will get the following:

  • 15 minutes on the MozCon stage to share with our audience, plus 5 minutes of Q&A.
  • A free ticket to MozCon. (If you already purchased yours, we'll either refund or transfer the ticket to someone else.)
  • Four nights of lodging covered by us at our partner hotel.
  • A reimbursement for your travel (flight, train, car, etc.), up to $500 domestic and $750 international.
  • A free ticket for you to give to anyone you would like and a code for $300 off another ticket.
  • An invitation for you and your significant other to join us for the speakers' dinner.

We work with you!

Pitching for a community speaker slot can feel intimidating. A lot of times, our ideas feel like an old hat and done a million times before. (When I say "our" here, I mean "mine.")

At MozCon, we work with every single speaker to ensure your presentation is the best it can be. Myself and Matt Roney dedicate ourselves to helping you. Seriously, you get our personal cell phone numbers. Don't get me wrong—you do the heavy lifting and the incredible work. But we set up calls, review sessions, and even take you up on the stage pre-MozCon to ensure that you feel awesome about your talk.

We're happy to help, including:

  • Calls to discuss and refine your topic.
  • Assistance honing topic title and description.
  • Reviews of outlines and drafts (as many as you want!).
  • Best practices and guidance for slide decks, specifically for our stage.
  • A comprehensive, step-by-step guide for show flow.
  • Serving as an audience for practicing your talk.
  • Reviewing your final deck.
  • Sunday night pre-MozCon tour of the stage to meet our A/V crew, see your presentation on the screens, and test the clicker.
  • A dedicated crew to make your A/V outstanding.
  • Anything else we can do to make you successful.

Most of the above are required as part of the speaker process, so even those of you who don't always ask for help (again, talking about myself here), will be sure to get it. We want you to know that anyone, regardless of experience or level of knowledge, can submit and present a great talk at MozCon. One of our past community speakers Zeph Snapp wrote a great post about his experiences with our process and at the show.

For great proposals:

  • Make sure to check out the confirmed MozCon 2015 topics from our other speakers so you don't overlap.
  • Read about what makes a great pitch.
  • For extra jazz, include links to videos of you doing public speaking and your slide deck work in the optional fields.
  • Follow the guidelines. Yes, the word counts are limited on purpose. Do not submit links to Google Docs, etc. for more information. Tricky submissions will be disqualified.

While I can't give direct pitch coaching—it would be unfair to others—I'm happy to answer your questions in the comments.

Submissions are reviewed by a selection committee at Moz, so multiple people look at and give their opinions on each pitch. The first run-through looks at pitches without speaker information attached to them in order to give an unbiased look at topics. Around 50% of pitches are weeded out here. The second run-through includes speaker bio information in order to get a more holistic view of the speaker and what your talk might be like in front of 1,400 people.

Everyone who submits a community speaker pitch will be informed either way. If your submission doesn't make it and you're wondering why, we can talk further on email as there's always next year.

Finally, a big thank you to our wonderful community speakers from past MozCons including Stephanie BeadellMark TraphagenZeph SnappJustin Briggs, Darren Shaw, Dana Lookadoo, Fabio Ricotta, Jeff McRitchie, Sha Menz, Mike Arnesen, A. Litsa, and Kelsey Libert, who've all been so amazing.


Still need to confirm you'll join us?

Buy your ticket!


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