luni, 20 februarie 2012

Monitor Which Social Networks Your Visitors are Logged Into With Google Analytics

Monitor Which Social Networks Your Visitors are Logged Into With Google Analytics


Monitor Which Social Networks Your Visitors are Logged Into With Google Analytics

Posted: 19 Feb 2012 01:14 PM PST

Posted by Tom Anthony

At Distilled's SearchLove conference in London back in October, Mat Clayton from Mixcloud provided a great snippet of Javascript that could be used to record whether visitors to your site were logged into Facebook or not. This has a few uses, such as customising which social buttons you show your user or just for recording how many of your users are logged in to Facebook and then using this to show your boss that you guys should really be interacting with your visitors there.

I wanted to take this idea and extend it to Twitter and Google+, and record whether users were logged in there too. It wouldn't provided me with any immediately actionable intelligence, but over time I'd love to see the trends of what percentage of a website's visitors were logged into the different social networks. As a side project, I was also interested to record what percentage of visitors were logged into a Google account and were therefore responsible for the dreaded (not provided) in my Analytics, and also what percentage of these users were registered for Google+.

However, whilst Facebook provides an API to allow this kind of intelligence gathering, there is no such API for Twitter and Google+, and a bit of research failed to turn up any techniques that worked across all the browsers. So I rolled up my sleeves and did some digging around, eventually finding a way to trick the login mechanism of these sites to reveal whether a visitor to my site was currently logged in. If you want to try it out visit my Social Network Login Status Detector Demo; it should return something like:

Setting up the tracking

If you're a code junkie and don't need any help then you can just go and pull the code from this template page. Otherwise, let me walk you through it. There are two main steps:

  1. Setup an empty Facebook app. This is free and only takes 60 seconds - it is required for the Facebook API code to work for your domain.
  2. Install the Javascript code.

Complicated, eh?!

Setup a Facebook App

I'm going to blast through this quickly; but if you want more details there are plenty of tutorials online. If you already have an App that is registered for the domain you wish to track then you just need the AppID and can skip to the next section. We need to create an empty Facebook App because the Facebook API will only allow code on a domain to make requests regarding an App that is linked to that domain.

  1. Login to Facebook.
  2. Go to the Facebook Developers page: https://developers.facebook.com/apps
  3. Press "Create New App" in the top right corner.
  4. For "App Display Name" enter anything you want; I used "TomTrack". Check the box to agree to the FB Policies and on to the next page.
  5. The next stage is pretty easy, just enter your domain in both the "App Domain" and "Website" sections:

  1. Hit "Save Changes" .
  2. Grab the App ID from the top of the page and save it ready for the next section.

Install Javascript Code

Firstly, make sure you have your Google Analytics on the page; the code below is for the asynchronous version of the code. Next you need to add this snippet of Javascript to the top of your page in the <head> section; this function will do the recording to analytics for us:

So far, so good. You'll notice that I used _setCustomVar, whereas Mat had originally used _trackEvent - I'm sure there are pros and cons to both, and the code on the template page provides both options.

Next we add the following code to the bottom of the page before the </body> tag, ensuring you replce the appID in the Facebook code with that AppID you created above.

You can copy and paste the code from the source code of this template page.

That's it - your tracking is all set!

Setting up Google Analytics

Once the code is installed you will be tracking right away, and can view the data in Audience > Demograhics > Customer Variables, assuming you are using the 'new' layout in Google Analytics. However, the power of this data becomes far greater when you setup Custom Segments so you can view how users logged into different Social Networks interact with the site compared to one another and compared to regular visitors.

Setup Custom Segments

Custom segments are really easy to setup, and can give a keen insight into your analytics when used well. 

  1. Click "Advanced Segments" at the top of your analytics screen (once you're into the relevant profile), and hit "+ New Custom Segment" at the bottom right of the drop down.
  2. You'll be prompted to select a name for your segment and to select which facets to base it on. We'll be using the Custom Variable slots that the Javascript tracking code uses. Analytics allows 5 Custom Variable slots, and the code above uses 4 of these (1 = Google, 2 = Google+, 3 = Twitter, and 4=Facebook) [side note: I think you could cram all these into 1 slot possibly]. We'll make a segment for each; here is how I setup my Twitter segment:

  1. Hit "Save Segment" and you're done. Now repeat this for each of the other variables. Ensure you are selecting "Custom Variable (Value xx)" and not "Custom Variable (Key xx)".
  2. You're done and are ready to play with some data.

Viewing the data in analytics

Once you have the tracking installed and segments setup you need to wait a few hours before you will see the first data appearing in Google Analytics. Once you have data coming in, the first step is to select which segments from your shiny new advanced segments you'd like to use:

Select those you are interested in and "All Visits" if you also wish to compare against all the traffic, and hit Apply. You can now go into any of your regular report screens and see these 2 demographics against one another; here you can see Facebook visitors to one of my test sites starting to be tracked after I installed the tracking code on Feb 13th:

We can immediately see that about 40% of the traffic to this site are logged into Facebook whilst browsing the site and the trend of visitors generally correlate. By adding a couple more segments I can see at the top of the page this breakdown across the networks

It turns out that most staff of this website are on Twitter and Google+, hence the quite high number for Google+ (this is a non-tech website) and the correlation between the 2 figures.

There are loads and loads of metrics you can compare and find of interest and you can spend hours playing around and digging down into the data for your site yourselves. One interesting one for this site, which has an explicit Conversion Goal (yes - comparing conversions could be a lot of fun) of trying to retain users on the site for 10 minutes or more:

Looks like driving users over from the Facebook page could be an area to think more about! They reach this target 50% more of the time than the average user. Just another little example of the kind of things you could be thinking about - I'd love to hear more suggestions and discussion in the comments for what other facets could be useful to look at.

Wrap Up

Currently, whilst Facebook provides a 'proper' API to access this information, Twitter and Google don't, and you should be aware that they might 'fix' the way this process works anytime soon. In the meantime I think there is some really actionable analytics you can gather in the meantime, beyond measuring the details in analytics. You might want to change the details of which social buttons are shown, or maybe provide a popup window to prompt further interaction via a particular Social Network.

In the meantime, I'd love to here what sort of suggestions people have for actionable intelligence based on the analytics you can gather via these techniques. I look forward to hearing what people suggest in the comments. :)


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Broken Link Building Guide: From Noob to Novice

Posted: 19 Feb 2012 12:21 AM PST

Posted by Anthony D. Nelson

Howdy Mozzers,

My name is Anthony and I'm from Fargo, ND. First-time YouMozzer here. After reading this post, I hope you (in?)voluntarily scroll back up to the top to follow me on twitter (@anthonydnelson) and check out my blog Northside SEO.

Today's post is about broken link building. It's been a popular topic in the industry, but I also noticed that SEOmoz didn't have a lot on the subject, so I thought it would be nice to write a kick-ass piece for the large SEOmoz community. Now, on to the post.


BROKEN LINK BUILDING: From Noob to Novice

broken glasschain linkbuilding with bricks

Broken [broh-kuhn] adjective: not functioning properly; out of working order

Link [lingk] noun: anything serving to connect one part or thing with another

Building [bil-ding] verb (used with object): to construct (especially something complex) by assembling and joining parts

Definitions taken from dictionary.com.

Broken Link Building [lingk bil-ding gohld] verb: the act of acquiring a link to your website by pointing out a broken link on someone else's website


What is Broken Link Building?

Broken link building (sometimes called dead link building) is a technique that involves pointing out a link on another website that is no longer working and also asking for a link to your website. Often the broken link leads to a 404 page. The link will be on a page that is relevant to your niche and appears to be a good fit for inclusion of your site. You perform a solid by pointing out the broken link to the webmaster and in return, suggest that your link be added or be used as a replacement.


Why has Broken Link Building been so Popular Lately?

  1. SEOs feel like they are making the web a better place. They are helping webmaster's deal with the problem of link rot. SEOs care about the quality of the web. The fewer broken links, the better.
  2. It gives the link builder an easy value add to their email. You are helping them out, before asking them to help you out.
  3. It can result in quick links. When broken link building emails are successful, you usually get your link within a day or two of sending the email. Much quicker then allowing a site owner to try and review a product or spending time making a connection and pitching a guest blog post.
  4. It's a relatively new technique that has already yielded good results for numerous link builders.

google chrome logo check my links chrome open site explorer logo xenu-link-sleuth-logo screaming-frog-logo W3C-Logo

Broken Link Building Required Tools:

  1. A website that doesn't suck (no one is going to link to your crappy site, even if you point out a broken link)
  2. Google Chrome with Check My Links Extension or Domain Hunter+ (Domain Hunter+ was recently featured on YouMoz)
  3. Open Site Explorer: Limited use for everyone if you register for a free account at SEOmoz

Additional Tools for Increase Efficiency:

  1. Xenu Link Sleuth (unless you're really cool like me and use a Mac)
  2. Screaming Frog
  3. W3C's Link Checker
  4. Gmail plugins Rapporative and Boomerang
  5. Canned Responses in Gmail or saving stationary templates in Mac mail are major time saving wins

How to Find Broken Links

  1. Use the Check My Links Extension on any webpage you happen to visit and cross your fingers.
  2. Check Top Pages tab in OSE for any competitor or site in your niche and look for 404 pages with external links pointing at them in the Top Pages tab.
  3. Use search operators in Google to find relevant sites (my examples just below). This should result in hundreds of sites with lists of links specific to your industry. Switch your search settings to display the top 100 results and export them to a CSV using the MozBar's SERP Control Panel. Sort by Page Authority or Domain Authority and you're good to go. Find more useful link building search operaters or advanced search queries on Himanshu's site. Visit the sites and run a link checker extension.
    1. intitle:KEYWORD inurl:links -exchange
    2. intitle:KEYWORD inurl:resources
    3. inurl:links KEYWORD -
  4. Add exported lists of links to Xenu/Screaming Frog to find 404 pages and easily run them through OSE. Alternatively, you can run a single page through to easily find the status codes of its outbound links.
  5. Run a website through W3C's Link Checker to find broken links
  6. When you find a broken link, run that link through OSE to determine who else is linking to it. You may find 5-10 other good link prospects from a single broken link.
  7. Export numerous competitor's followed back link profiles in OSE. Combine results. Filter for URLs containing Link, Directory, Where to Buy, Resources or whatever words fit your industry. Sort sites by PA/DA, visit, run link checker, email.

domain quality for link buildingDetermining Link Target Quality

After you find a page with some broken links on it, you have to decide if it's worth your time sending an email and asking for a link.

Ask for a Link Don't Bother
• Noticeable Page Rank / MozRank

• Approximately one thousand links on the page

• Signs of social sharing • Spam links present (viagra, ipods, etc)
• Nice web design • Over 10 broken links

But there are too many broken links!

brokenlinkcheckerIt's a bit of a road block to run into a page with decent authority only to realize that it contains a ton of broken links. When you find a page with too many broken links on it (10+), you have a few options.

  1. Decide the page is low-quality and choose not to contact them.
  2. Send an email pointing out two or three of them and pretend that you don't know about the rest.
  3. Point out all 10+ broken links and risk overwhelming them to the point that they decide not to update the page at all or completely delete it.

It's totally up to you to decide what is right for you and the site you are building links for. Personally, I've gone with all of the techniques above. Often times, it doesn't matter what you decide on because you may not hear back from them at all.


Finding a Website Owner's Contact Information

  • Look for their email address on the contact page, about page or footer of the website
  • Google site:DOMAIN.COM email
  • Google site:DOMAIN.COM @DOMAIN.COM gmail.com hotmail.com yahoo.com msn.com live.com
  • Look for their Twitter handle. A great casual way to introduce yourself
  • Check WhoIs
  • Look for a contact form on their website
  • Citation Labs The Contact Finder if you are working with a large list

Stalk them to the best of your ability. It's OK if they feel a little uncomfortable that you found them through their sister's Twitter account. No contact, no link.


Broken Link Building Email Templates

Now that you know what broken link building is and how to find websites to target, let's get on to email outreach. I'm going to show you five email templates I use which will hopefully help you start your own successful broken link building campaign. Each template is slightly tailored for a different type of website or client. You may find that one of them works best for you, or you may find that you hopping back and forth between styles will give you the best results depending on your client, the niche or the targeted site for link acquisition.


email-template-1Broken Link Building Email Template #1 - Quick and Dirty

Subject Line: (DOMAIN.COM) question

Hey (WEBSITE OWNER FIRST NAME),

Are you still updating (DOMAIN.COM)? I found a broken link I'd like to point out.

-(YOUR FIRST NAME)

Who to Send it to: Perfect for use on websites that look like they were made in the 90's and seem as if they are no longer being updated. Also good for sites that are questionable in quality. Don't waste too much time with on an email for a site you don't expect to reply.

Why it Works: This short and sweet email has one of the highest response rates of any of the templates I use. It comes off as genuine and helpful and leads with a strong question that illicits a response from all webmasters who are actually updating their website. When they reply, simply follow-up by sharing the page and the broken link as well as suggesting your website and explaining the fit and value it offers to that page.


email-template-2Broken Link Building Template #2 - The Pressure is On Them

Subject Line: (DOMAIN.COM) broken link

Hi (WEBSITE OWNER FIRST NAME),
 
My name is (FIRST NAME) and (I WORK FOR COMPANY NAME or I HAVE A WEBSITE CALLED SITENAME) .
I'd love to have (OUR/MY) website (WWW.DOMAIN.COM) added to your great list of (LINKS/RESOURCES).
(LINKS/RESOURCES URL)
 
Also, I found a few broken links on your site. Is this the right place to report them?
 
Look forward to hearing back from you.
 
-(YOUR FIRST NAME) 
 

Who to Send it to: Any website that has a list of links or resources (with a broken link) that you think is a good fit for your site.

Why it Works: You come clean immediately in the email explaining that you want a link. The webmaster might feel the need to include your link in order to find out what links on their site are broken. No webmaster will email you back and say, "No, I won't link to you. Now please show me the broken links." You get a link or they are on their own.


email-template-3Broken Link Building Template #3 - In and Out

Who Should Use This Template: Any link builder that doesn't have time to follow up. This is a one and done send.

Subject Line: (FIRST NAME), (DOMAIN.COM) broken links

Hey (WEBSITE OWNER FIRST NAME),

My name is (YOUR FIRST NAME) and I wanted to let you know I really liked your post about (TOPIC OF ONE OF THEIR BLOG POSTS - NOT THE EXACT TITLE AND NOT THE MOST RECENT ONE). The part I particularly enjoyed was the part about (QUOTE FROM POST BECAUSE....)
 
However, when I was looking at your (DESCRIBE PAGE/POST), I noticed (A/SOME) broken (LINK/LINKS).
(LINK 1)
(LINK 2)
(ETC)
 
When you are fixing the page, I also think you should consider adding these two resources:
(SIMILAR TRUSTWORTHY WEBSITE #1 NAME - WWW.DOMAIN.COM) - (BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF SITE - NOT A CORPORATE DESCRIPTION OR SLOGAN)
(YOUR WEBSITE #2 NAME - WWW.DOMAIN.COM) - (BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF SITE - NOT A CORPORATE DESCRIPTION OR SLOGAN)
 
(PERSONAL ANECDOTE ABOUT HOW THESE TWO SITES HAVE HELPED YOU).
 
I hope this email reaches you safely and helps you out a bit.
 
I look forward to hearing back from you soon.
 
-(YOUR FULL NAME)

Who to Send it to: Any website that has a list of links or resources (with a broken link) that you think is a good fit for your site.

Why it Works: When you nominate two unaffiliated websites for inclusion on the webmasters list of links, they will simply think you are trying to help them. You want to point out some broken links and also give them some additional sites to consider. Make sure the alternate suggested site is not a competitor to your site.


email-template-4Broken Link Building Template #4 - Brand Power

Who Should Use This Template: Link builders (consultants or in-house) who work for a semi-recognizable brand name in their particular industry.

Subject Line: (SITE OWNER FIRST NAME), (DOMAIN.COM) broken link

Hey (WEBSITE OWNER FIRST NAME),

My name is (YOUR FIRST NAME) and I wanted to let you know I really liked your post about (TOPIC OF A BLOG POST - NOT EXACT TITLE AND NOT THE MOST RECENT ONE). The part I particularly enjoyed was the part about (QUOTE FROM THEIR POST).

I work at (COMPANY NAME) and after being in the INDUSTRY/NICHE field for a few years, I've become really passionate about INDUSTRY/NICHE and I'm happy to have found your site.

When I was looking at your (DESCRIPTION OF PAGE WITH BROKEN LINK) page, I noticed that one of the links was broken. The link labeled (BROKEN LINK ANCHOR TEXT) isn't currently working. (OPTIONAL: DO YOU KNOW WHERE THAT LINK IS SUPPOSED TO GO?)

Also, I hope you would consider adding our website (WWW.YOURSITE.COM) as an additional (RESOURCE/RECOMMENDATION/ALTERNATIVE) to your great (DESCRIPTION OF PAGE WITH BROKEN LINK) page. We'd be honored to be included on your site and I think the link would provide great value to your visitors due to our (BRAND UNIQUE SELLING POINT).

Have a nice (DAY/NIGHT).

I look forward to hearing back from you soon.

-(YOUR FULL NAME)

-(COMPANY NAME)

Who to Send it to: Any website that has a list of links or resources (with a broken link) that you think is a good fit for your site.

Why it Works: The website owner is flattered by having someone from a recognizable brand contact them with complements about their site. On top of that, they are grateful for you pointing out the broken links. How could they not give you a link?


Broken Link Building Template #5 - Zen Master Link Builder

zen-master-link-builderThe fifth template is essentially using no template at all. The Zen Master Link Builder builds a relationship before asking for a favor and the placement of a link. I'll outline the basic process below.

  1. Comment on one the website's blog post. Make sure it's thoughtful and genuine.
  2. Send first email with complement and question about a post of theirs or the niche they are in.
  3. After they reply, you email back kindly thanking them. Consider repeating steps two and three if the conversation goes that way.
  4. Follow them on twitter. Casually tweet at them or about their content to remain on their radar.
  5. Email again to point out the broken link as an FYI. Mention your website as a replacement or addition to the page.

Who to Send it to: Ideally everyone. Realistically, use this technique on high quality websites. Sites where links are hard to come by.

Why it Works: You've shown that you care and connected with the website owner on a personal level first. The website owner should be grateful for your support (comments, tweets, emails) and will most likely happily add your link to the page in question.

Note: The Zen Master approach is the best approach to take for all link building outreach. It is definitely not exclusive to broken link building. The ultimate hang-up comes to the overall time and resources required to execute.


Outreach Email Link Building Tips:

  • Send emails one at a time. From you, to them. Be real and try to offer as much value as possible.
  • Don't use full URLs or hyperlinks in your actual email. This increases the chance your email lands in the spam folder.
  • Find the website owner's email address and real name. Cyber stalk them to get it. Google them, find their twitter and check WHOIS.
  • The email templates above will work even better if you personalize them more. Show some personality. Being unique and odd can be more effective than professional and stale. Be a person, not a canned response, even if you start your post from one.
  • Use a woman's name.
  • End emails with a question or a sentence that implies they need to respond to you.
  • Always double check and proof your email. Using templates can be dangerous if you're not careful. Make sure it is personalized to the right website.
  • If you do make a mistake in sending a templated email, come clean and do this.
  • Hustle. You will never get a link for an email you don't send.

telephone-drawing-wikimedia-commonsPro Broken Link Building Outreach Tip

  • If the website has a phone number, call it. A real conversation will monumentally increase your chance at landing a link. Admittedly, I still send emails 99% of the time.

301 Redirect Broken Link Building - Double Dipping

Sometimes the link you point out in your outreach email doesn't even have to be broken to get the webmaster to take action and change the page. I've 301-redirect-iconhad success pointing out links that 301 to a different site. Simply put, if you tell a site owner that they are trying to link to domainA.com and the result is a link to domainB.com they are often willing to remove that link. The benefit of this can be great.

Study your competitors' external backlink profile and find the urls of other websites that are 301ing back to them.

Example: DOMAIN1.com is redirecting to COMPETITOR.com.

Contact the sites who are linking to DOMAIN1.com and explain to them they are not linking to the site they were once intending to. Be sure to offer your website as an additional resource.

The end result: Your competitor loses a link and you gain one. Double win.

This technique will not work for links where the redirect clearly goes to the same company/website at a different URL. This technique works best when combined with an email pointing out a few broken links. "These links are broken and this one doesn't go to the right spot..."


Link Exchanges and Directories

Pointing out broken links is often enough to get you listed in a paid directory or on a site that is requesting link exchanges for submission. Of course, this only means something if you find a paid directory you actually want to be listed in or a site that exchanges links in a non-spammy way.


Content Recreation

Sometimes in the hunt for broken links, you'll find a 404 page that has 5-20 external links pointing at it. Some of them are juicy links. Links that you want. Bad. The problem is, your site doesn't contain a direct replacement for the 404'd content. Here is how you can get them.

Even though your site is in the same niche, your site didn't originally publish the results from that study in 2005 that was referenced so many times and no longer exists. You need to recreate the content. The first step is to put the broken link into the Wayback Machine to find out what the content originally was. Recreate the content for your site. If possible, feel free to repurpose it a bit to fit your branding and style.wayback-machine-logo

Once you have created the similar content, contact the webmasters with the broken link pointing at the now non-existent content and gently nudge them towards your new piece. The exact piece they were looking for.

This technique takes a lot of time and effort but can definitely pay dividends. It is already established that the content you are creating is link worthy in the eyes of multiple webmasters.


18 Additional Broken Link Building Resources

  1. 40 Broken Link Building Resources by Garrett French on Citation Labs
  2. Broken Link Building In Action by Nick LeRoy on nickleroy.com
  3. A Tactical Guide to Broken Link Building by Cleo Kirkland on ROI Factor Blog
  4. The Reciprocity Link Building Method by Melanie Nathan on Search Engine People
  5. Easy Link Building with Your Competitors' 404 Errors by Fabio Ricotta on Ontolo
  6. Need Links? Make Up For Your Competitors Shortcomings by Napoleon Suarez on SEER Interactive Blog
  7. 5 Creative Broken Link Building Strategies by Jon Cooper on Point Blank SEO
  8. Broken Link Building for Content Promotion by Garrett French on Search Engine Watch
  9. Check My Links Chrome Extension - A Link Builder's Dream by Jon Cooper on SEOmoz
  10. Broken Link Building - A Case Study by Ben Jackson on SEO ROI
  11. Broken Link Building: Feast On Your Competitors This Thanksgiving by Napoleon Suarez on SEER Interactive Blog
  12. Fixing the Web's Lost Content: An 8 Step Guide for Link Builders by Jeremy Bencken on Search Engine Watch
  13. 15 Questions with Nick LeRoy on Broken Link Building by Garrett French on Citation Labs
  14. Broken Link Building: How Napoleon Suarez Gets 8-12% Conversions by Garrett French on Citation Labs
  15. Broken Link Building Tips: an Interview with Melanie Nathan by Garrett French on Citation Labs
  16. Busted Links as Reason for Link Request by Wheel on Webmaster World Forum
  17. Improving Corrective Value-Adds in Link Request E-mails by Ross Hudgens on rosshudgens.com
  18. Broken link building with Raven's Link Manager and local directories by Eric Scism on Raven Blog

If you know of a great broken link building resource that I am missing, please post it in the comments and maybe one of the mozzers or I (not sure how this YouMoz editing will work) will be able to add it to the list.


Noob to Novice

I gave this post the title from Noob to Novice because reading blog posts is not going to make you an expert or advanced link builder. You have to get out there and get your hands dirty. Send emails. Send a lot of emails. Try different techniques. Test and record. Broken link building is still a technique that is in its infancy and there is a lot of room for us all to improve and refine our techniques.

I still consider myself a novice link builder. There is so much to learn and the game is always changing.

Broken link building or any outreach based link building campaign is never going to compete with someone who creates link worthy content. Content that will continue to build links on it's own. Content that will build links on the weekends when they're not working.

Outreach link building definitely has its place. It's something I do a lot of. However, you should do it to supplement the natural links your amazing content organically gets. Useful, high-quality content is still king.
 

Be sure to drop a comment and let everyone know about your broken link building successes or failures. It is still a relatively new technique and we can all learn from sharing. Don't be shy on giving this post a thumbs up or a thumbs down. Feedback is needed to grow.


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Seth's Blog : Too far from the center?

Too far from the center?

The action used to happen at court. In France, if you wanted to get ahead, you put on your outfit, called in favors and hung out near the King, because proximity was all.

If you're in Kibera, are you too far from Silicon Valley to write an app? If you live in New Zealand, are you too far outside the mainstream music world to perform a hit song? What about an author who lives 3,000 miles from New York?

The magic of our new form of communication is that it's no longer one-way. If you consume an app, you can write one. If you can read a blog, you can publish one. If you can grab an ebook, you can produce one.

The center has nothing to do with geography any longer. The center is a state of mind.

 

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duminică, 19 februarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Warmongering Insanity: Canada Wants Military Base in Germany

Posted: 19 Feb 2012 08:34 PM PST

It's time to bring home the troops, all of them, from every country where they do not belong (which is everywhere but home).

Instead, I am saddened to report a WTF moment on warmongering insanity: Canada wants military base in Germany
Canada plans to set up a military base in Germany under a deal that will allow the expanding Canadian military to increase its global reach.

The new "operational support hub" – along with others to be set up around the world – will allow Canada to deploy troops and supplies to distant hotspots on short notice, said a joint statement by the German and Canadian governments as German Defence Minister Thomas de Maiziere paid a visit to Ottawa.

It's still not clear when the base at Cologne-Bonn Airport will be set up or how many Canadians will be there, although troop numbers will not approach the tens of thousands of Americans currently stationed in Germany.

De Maiziere told a press conference that he and his Canadian counterpart, Peter MacKay, are also discussing missile defence, the future of Afghanistan and the nuclear component of NATO defence capabilities – all topics of an upcoming NATO summit in Chicago in May.

According to the Canadian CBC television network, Germany and Canada have recently been expanding their defence cooperation as both countries grapple with prolonged military deployments to Afghanistan.

The Canadians have experimented with setting up temporary logistics hubs in Germany to support their Afghanistan mission – one successful such venture was recently launched alongside the American military in Spangdahlem, Rhineland-Palatinate.
From Temporary to Permanent Insanity 

Canada has gone from temporary insanity to a more permanent form thereof, though not as bad as the US which has troops in 140 countries.

Here are a few comments to the article that I agree with ...

  1. Supernova says: W*T*F every creep from NA want their crappy basis in Germany. Go do your military exercise on glaciers that were given to you. Get the hell out of DE!
  2. Sebastian says: As a dual citizen, Germany/Canadian I think they should keep the military out.
  3. Carlm says: What are those Canadians thinking, eh? Let the Germans fend for themselves, they've got the money and the know how to do the job, if they choose. But why would they when others, namely the US, are dumb enough to do it for them.
  4. Christopheuk25 says: The Americans have about 80.0000 troops in Germany the UK yes remember them they still have 22,000 troops in Germany. There may be some French troops still in Germany though what good they would be is anyone's guess. The cost to keep US and UK troops in Germany for defense is astronomical to both countries especially in these serious economic times.

Looks like Canada could use a Ron Paul type candidate as well. On second thought, every country in the entire world does. Indeed, the world would be a safer place and taxpayers everywhere would have more money in their pockets instead of feeding the military complex.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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Ron Paul Blasts Santorum's "Atrocious" Liberal Voting Record, Doubts Santorum Could Beat Obama, Says Romney and Gingrich Do Not Offer Change

Posted: 19 Feb 2012 07:25 PM PST

Ron Paul went after Santorum, on Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union with Candy Crowley".
"His voting record is ... from my viewpoint, an atrocious voting record -- how liberal he's been in all the things he's voted for over the many years he was in the Senate and in the House," Paul said.

He had kinder words for Mitt Romney, praising his "acceptable management style," a qualification that he said Santorum and Newt Gingrich did not share.

"But as far as issues go, I'm uncomfortable with all three of them," Paul added. "I think they are the status quo and they are not change -- they don't want to really change anything. That's what I'm offering."



Paul is certainly correct about all of them. They do not offer change. I will write in Ron Paul unless Paul is the Republican nominee.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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Japan Posts Record Trade Deficit in January, 4th Consecutive Deficit Month

Posted: 19 Feb 2012 04:58 PM PST

At some point, I suggest now, Japan needs to stop blaming the earthquake and tsunami for its collapse in exports. Furthermore, Japan is going to have difficulty financing its debt unless its turns the situation around quickly.

That may not be likely as Japan logs record trade deficit in January
Japan posted its biggest ever trade deficit in January, topping the previous record seen during the financial crisis in 2009, Ministry of Finance data showed On Monday, underlining concerns that a persistent trade gap may undermine the country's ability to finance its debt.

The trade deficit stood at 1.475 trillion yen ($18.59 billion), against median market forecast for 1.468 trillion yen, marking a fourth straight month of deficit, as weak global demand and a strong yen hurt exports and robust fuel demand boosts imports.

Exports fell 9.3 percent from a year earlier, down for a fourth straight month. That compared with a 9.5 percent drop expected by economists, following an 8.0 percent decline in the year to December.

Japan logged an annual trade deficit in 2011 for the first time in 31 years as the March disaster, a global slowdown and a strong yen dealt a blow to an export-reliant economy.
Imports Up Exports Down

Imports rose 9.8 percent from a year ago and energy prices are one of the reasons. Japan needs alternate energy sources following the shutdown of its nuclear reactors.

While rising imports may still be blamed on the tsunami, the collapse in exports has a different reason. Europe is in a major slowdown and more US consumers are happy with GM and Ford autos.

This does not bode well for Japan.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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Greek CDS to Trigger in March

Posted: 19 Feb 2012 10:02 AM PST

Whether or not Greece stays in the Eurozone and for how long is still debatable, but Greek CDS contracts are set to trigger next month after Greek parliament retroactively inserts collective action clauses (CACs) forcing all debt-holders to participate in the next deal.

Bear in mind that forced restructuring is the trigger, not the insertion of the CAC language itself.

The Financial Times reports Greece sets date for €200bn debt swap
Greece plans to launch a debt swap next month for private bondholders as part of a second €130bn bail-out expected to be approved on Monday by eurozone finance ministers, a government official said on Saturday.

The official said the swap, which would cover €200bn of Greek sovereign debt, would take place between March 8 and March 11, only days before Athens is due to repay a €14.4bn bond maturing on March 20.

As a first step towards completing the deal, the Greek parliament is set to pass legislation next week on so-called collective action clauses, with the aim of forcing a minority of "holdout" investors to take losses of around 70 per cent on their holdings.

The debt swap would offer bondholders a cash sweetener of 10-15 per cent of their holdings, plus new 30-year bonds with a coupon of around 3.75 per cent, which could increase if Greece achieves higher than forecast growth rates

An Athens banker with knowledge of the swap negotiations said the size of the cash payment and the final interest rate would be set by eurozone officials ahead of Monday's meeting of finance ministers.
Default Ducks Lined Up

As noted earlier, the ECB will get preferential treatment on its bonds, exchanging them at par.

After the swap, the ducks will then be lined up for the Troika to find some excuse to deny Greece payments or request still more austerity measures that Greek politicians refuse to go along with. In theory, the Greek mess could fester for years, I just highly doubt it will.

A hard default will not be as disorderly as most claim, especially from the point of view of the rest of the Eurozone. There are only $3.2 billion or so  Net CDS Contracts still floating around, a trivial number these days. I have seen reports as low as $2.8 billion. Last month it was $4 billion.

Greece is in a hopeless situation until it exits the Eurozone. German officials seems to have figured that out even if the Eurocrats have not.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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Help with Nomenclature for Links & Brand Mentions

Help with Nomenclature for Links &amp; Brand Mentions


Help with Nomenclature for Links &amp; Brand Mentions

Posted: 18 Feb 2012 12:18 AM PST

Posted by randfish

Hey gang - short blog post on a topic our product and marketing teams have been noodling around with. As many of you know, we've got our Linkscape index, which is crawled, processed and served out on a monthly basis (there's a new index about every 30 days). We also have a newer datasource, Blogscape, aka Freshscape (which is currently undergoing some repairs in Labs) which crawls a few million "fresh" RSS feeds and indexes full content.

The goal of Linkscape is to present a search-engine size link graph, while the goal with Freshscape is to provide a more realtime, full-content index of links and mentions similar to what Google Alerts does. The problem is... what to call them?

We're currently hard at work on a future iteration of the SEOmoz PRO platform that will include deeper integrations of both Linkscape and Freshscape data (so you can watch and competitively compare your wide link graph metrics as well as these fresher, primarily RSS-based links and brand mentions). As such, we need a way of segmenting these that makes sense to current and future users of PRO, and we'd love your input. The following polls have some of the names we like best right now for classifying Linkscape vs. Freshscape data:

 

If you have other suggestions or ideas, please feel free to include them in the comments. If there's one in particular that receives lots more thumbs up than anything in the poll, we might use your idea in the final version!

Thanks very much for the help - can't wait to show you our new stuff (though it will be more than a few months until this is ready to roll out).


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Seth's Blog : "How'd it work out?"

"How'd it work out?"

It turns out that the light fixtures a builder used in my kitchen a few years ago have all begun to fail. One by one, each one stops working.

My guess is that he has no idea, and continues to confidently install these fixtures, his go-to choice for kitchen lighting. And why not? He doesn't know that they only have a relatively short life. He doesn't know because he didn't ask.

Doctors and consultants and builders are often hesitant to ask about how something worked long after the work is done. It feels like nothing but a chance to hear a complaint.

It's not. It's a chance to show that you care. And a chance to learn how to get even better at what you do.

 

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sâmbătă, 18 februarie 2012

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis


Irish Home Loans 90+ Days Delinquent Hits 9.2%; Spain Lending Shrinks at Record Pace

Posted: 18 Feb 2012 10:58 PM PST

Spain and Ireland have economies in shambles over housing bubbles popped long ago. Damage continues to mount. Here are a pair of stories highlighting problems.

Bloomberg reports Irish Home Loans At Least 90 Days In Arrears Rise to 9.2%
Irish home loans in arrears for more than 90 days rose to 9.2 percent at the end of last year from 8.1 percent at the end of the third quarter, according to the country's central bank.

A total of 107,708 home mortgages, or 14 percent of the total, were either 90 days in arrears or had been restructured and were performing at the end of December, the central bank said in an e-mailed statement today.
Spain Lending Shrinks at Record Pace

In the wake of Spanish real estate collapse, Spain Lending Shrinks at Record Pace as Defaults Rise
Lending fell by 3.3 percent in December from a year before, the biggest drop since Bank of Spain records started half a century ago, the regulator said on its website today. Bad loans as a proportion of total loans rose to 7.61 percent from 7.52 percent in November as borrowing considered "doubtful" jumped to 136 billion euros ($179 billion) from about 11 billion euros five years ago, before Spain's property crash.

The prospect of a protracted recession in Spain is curbing the appetite for loans and making banks more cautious about lending. The economy may shrink 1.5 percent this year, according to central bank forecasts, while unemployment stands at 23 percent. Exane BNP Paribas predicts an economic contraction could stretch through 2013.

Banks piled up apartments and building land on their balance sheets as loans to property developers and mortgage borrowers soured during the crash. The government is talking to banks to try to reduce the number of people evicted from their homes for failing to pay their mortgages, Economy Minister Luis de Guindos said in an interview with state radio RNE late yesterday.

Deposits gathered by Spanish lenders declined 4.6 percent from a year earlier, the Bank of Spain said. Deposits increased 0.5 percent from November, the regulator said.
Misery in Spain

Various austerity measures, tax hikes, and cuts to regional governments ensure that the recession in Spain will be both long and deep.

For more on the misery in Spain, please see ...


Mike "Mish" Shedlock
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Germany Draws Up Plans for Greece to Leave Euro; Athens Rehearses the Nightmare of Default; Merkel's Denial Rings Hollow

Posted: 18 Feb 2012 06:32 PM PST

It's been crystal clear for weeks, if not much longer, that Germany has been actively seeking to persuade Greece to abandon the Euro.

Confirmation came on February 7 with Merkel's Official Denial "I will have no part in forcing Greece out of the euro"; Schäuble Starts Salami Tactics on German Participation, Calls for Vote .

Note carefully how the "I"s are being dotted and the "T"s crossed. The ECB refuses to take a haircut on its Greek bond holding so now we have this last-minute debt swap to bail out the ECB right before the rug is pulled.

My friend Pater Tenebrarum had an excellent writeup on the debt swap in Credit Market Watch – ECB To Participate in Greek Debt Exchange.

Pieces of the Puzzle are In Place

  1. Greek CDS contracts are down to a mere $2.8 billion
  2. Merkel's "Official Denial"
  3. German Finance minister places numerous roadblocks on Greece accepting the next bailout
  4. A Debt Sawp will enable the ECB to be made whole (at the expense of German and French taxpayers of course)
  5. Dress Rehearsal

The Financial Times discusses the dress rehearsal in Athens rehearses the nightmare of default
On Friday afternoon, Constantine Michalos, president of the Athens chamber of commerce, sat in his office – around the corner from where protesters were hurling chunks of marble at riot police – and contemplated what was once unthinkable: that Greece would default on its debt and then be forced into a messy exit from the euro.

"All hell would break loose," Mr Michalos said, sketching a society that would quickly run short of fuel, food, medicine and necessities. "You would have social upheaval."

On Monday, eurozone finance ministers gather in Brussels to consider a €130bn bail-out that Greece counts on to avoid such a scenario.
What's likely early next week is a debt swap in which the ECB gets new bonds guaranteed in Euros, then immediately transferred to the EFSF making the ECB whole. Some relatively short time later, the Troika will refuse to lend more money to Greece forcing Greece to go back on the Drachma.

Germany Draws Up Plans for Greece to Leave Euro

Let's now get to the heart of the matter. The Telegraph reports Germany Draws Up Plans for Greece to Leave Euro
The German finance ministry is actively pushing for Greece to declare itself bankrupt and to agree a "haircut" on the bulk of its debts held by banks, a move that would be classed as a default by financial markets.

Eurozone finance ministers meet on Monday to approve the next tranche of loans from the EU and the International Monetary Fund, designed to stave off national bankruptcy while the new Greek government puts the country's finances in order.

But the severe austerity measures being demanded have caused such fury in Greece, and the cuts required are so deep, that Wolfgang Schäuble, the German finance minister, does not believe that any government would be able to implement them.

His pessimism has been tipped into despair with a secret European Commission, Central and IMF report that even if Greece made good on its promises, it would not be enough to reach the target of bringing total debt to 120 per cent of GDP by 2020.

"The idea instead is that the Greek government should officially declare itself bankrupt and begin negotiating an even bigger cut with its creditors. For Schäuble, it is more a question of when, not if."

The German finance minister's comments are certain to plunge the authorities in Athens into even deeper gloom. On Saturday they tried to sound optimistic, with a cabinet meeting to thrash out the final details of an austerity package.

With Greek morale at rock bottom, the national mood darkened yet further after armed thieves looted a museum on Friday in Olympia, birthplace of the Olympic Games, and stole bronze and pottery artifacts - just weeks after the country's National Gallery was burgled.

One Greek newspaper suggested the state could no longer properly look after the nation's immense cultural heritage. "The Greek state has gone bankrupt, let's face it," the conservative daily Kathimerini said in an editorial.

Mr Schäuble maintains that since Greece is already regarded by the financial world as bankrupt, a formal bankruptcy would have no negative consequences for other euro members.
Merkel's Denial Rings Hollow

I side with Schäuble. Moreover, I do not believe Merkel is sincere when she says "Greece going bust could cause a shock wave that buries other countries - with Spain and Italy among them".

Rather, Merkel simply does not want to be the scapegoat, preferring to make it look like this was Greece's choice, not hers. She will be a hero in Germany when Greece leaves the Euro, in spite of her façade, pretending she does not want that to happen.

The irony is shock waves will indeed come later when Portugal and Spain exit the Euro, given that all the bureaucrats still think "Greece is unique".  In reality, the Euro is a failed idea with too many structural flaws to paper over.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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China Exports "Grim"; Bad Loans Rise in Fourth Quarter; China Cuts Bank Reserve Requirements; Looking for Miracles

Posted: 18 Feb 2012 08:42 AM PST

Given the previous misguided stimulus efforts in China, it is not surprising to discover Chinese Banks' Bad Loans Rise in Fourth Quarter.
Chinese commercial banks' bad loans increased in the fourth quarter of last year, highlighting pressures the lenders face in maintaining asset quality as the economy slows.

Non-performing loans rose 20.1 billion yuan ($3.2 billion) to 427.9 billion yuan as of Dec. 31, the China Banking Regulatory Commission said in a report on its website today. Bad loans accounted for 0.96 percent of total lending, up from 0.95 percent in September and 0.17 percentage point lower than a year earlier.

Chinese banks are struggling to keep bad loans in check as the country's economic expansion slows and the housing market cools under government curbs. Lenders' non-performing loan ratio had not increased quarter-on-quarter since the end of 2005, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

China Cuts Bank Reserve Requirements

Bad loans or not, in an attempt to keep its faltering economy together, China Cuts Bank Reserve Requirements.
China cut the amount of cash that banks must set aside as reserves for the second time in three months to spur lending as Europe's debt crisis and a cooling property market threaten economic growth.

Reserve requirements will fall by 50 basis points effective Feb. 24 the People's Bank of China said on its website this evening. Before today's move, the ratio for the nation's largest lenders stood at 21 percent.

Premier Wen Jiabao aims to steer the world's second-biggest economy through a property market slowdown and the weakest export growth since 2009, with the commerce ministry last week calling the trade outlook "grim." The International Monetary Fund said this month that China's expansion may be cut almost in half if Europe's debt crisis worsens.

"Growth remains the top concern for policy makers," Zhu Haibin, a Hong Kong-based economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), said before today's release. "Monetary policy will be biased toward easing this year."

Export Slide

China's exports and imports fell for the first time in two years last month and new lending was the lowest for a January in five years.

Before today's announcement, Ken Peng, a Beijing-based economist at BNP Paribas SA, said the government needs to be "careful not to overshoot monetary loosening, as it did in the financial crisis." Lingering effects of record lending in 2009 and 2010 include the risk for banks that local government financing vehicles will default, saddling lenders with bad loans.

The government also aims to avoid fueling consumer and property prices. Inflation unexpectedly rebounded to 4.5 percent in January, accelerating for the first time in six months, as a week-long Chinese New Year holiday boosted spending and prices.
China's Problems

  • Inflation
  • Bad loans
  • Property bubbles
  • Massive problems with SOEs State Owned Enterprise 
  • Pollution
  • Unsustainable growth

Loosening lending standards is the very thing that fueled property bubbles, price inflation, bad loans, and gargantuan problems with SOEs. For more on the SOE problem, please see China Financial Markets: When Will China Emerge From the Global Crisis?

Looking for Miracles

Damn the consequences, central banks everywhere inevitably respond to slowdowns with two actions: print money and loosen lending standards. That holds true for the US, China, Europe, and Japan.

There are no miracle cures because printing money and loosening lending standards are why we are in this global fiscal mess in the first place.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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