Penguin 3.0 was one of the most anticipated algorithm updates in recent years when it rolled out on October 17, 2014. Penguin hadn't run for over a year at that point, and there were many webmasters sitting in Penguin limbo waiting for recovery. They had cleaned up their link profiles, disavowed what they could, and were simply waiting for the next update or refresh. Unfortunately, Google was wrestling with the algo internally and over twelve months passed without an update.
So when Pierre Far finally announced Penguin 3.0 a few days later on October 21, a few things stood out. First, this was not a new algorithm like Gary Illyes had explained it would be at SMX East. It was a refresh and underscored the potential problems Google was battling with Penguin (cough, negative SEO).
Second, we were not seeing the impact that we expected. The rollout seemed to begin with a heavier international focus and the overall U.S impact has been underwhelming to say the least. There were definitely many fresh hits globally, but there were a number of websites that should have recovered but didn't for some reason. And many are still waiting for recovery today.
Third, the rollout would be slow and steady and could take weeks to fully complete. That's unusual, but makes sense given the microscope Penguin 3.0 was under. And this third point (the extended rollout) is even more important than most people think. Many webmasters are already confused when they get hit during an acute algorithm update (for example, when an algo update rolls out on one day). But the confusion gets exponentially worse when there is an extended rollout.
The more time that goes by between the initial launch and the impact a website experiences, the more questions pop up. Was it Penguin 3.0 or was it something else? Since I work heavily with algorithm updates, I've heard similar questions many times over the past several years. And the extended Penguin 3.0 rollout is a great example of why confusion can set in. That's my focus today.
Penguin, Pirate, and the anomaly on October 24
With the Penguin 3.0 rollout, we also had Pirate 2 rolling out. And yes, there are some websites that could be impacted by both. That added a layer of complexity to the situation, but nothing like what was about to hit. You see, I picked up a very a strange anomaly on October 24. And I clearly saw serious movement on that day (starting late in the day ET).
So, if there was a third algorithm update, then that's three potential algo updates rolling out at the same time. More about this soon, but it underscores the confusion that can set in when we see extended rollouts, with a mix of confirmed and unconfirmed updates.
Penguin 3.0 tremors and analysis
Since I do a lot of Penguin work, and have researched many domains impacted by Penguin in the past, I heavily studied the Penguin 3.0 rollout. I published a blog post based on the first ten days of the update, which included some interesting findings for sure.
And based on the extended rollout, I definitely saw Penguin tremors beyond the initial October 17 launch. For example, check out the screenshot below of a website seeing Penguin impact on October 17, 22, and 25.
But as mentioned earlier, something else happened on October 24 that set off sirens in my office. I started to see serious movement on sites impacted by Panda, and not Penguin. And when I say serious movement, I'm referring to major traffic gains or losses all starting on October 24. Again, these were sites heavily dealing with Panda and had clean link profiles. Check out the trending below from October 24 for several sites that saw impact.
A good day for a Panda victim:
A bad day for a Panda victim:
And an incredibly frustrating day for a 9/5 recovery that went south on 10/24:
I saw this enough that I tweeted heavily about it and included a section about Panda in my Penguin 3.0 blog post. And that's when something wonderful happened, and it highlights the true beauty and power of the internet.
As more people saw my tweets and read my post, I started receiving messages from other webmasters explaining that they saw the same exact thing, and on their websites dealing with Panda and not Penguin. And not only did they tell me about, they showed me the impact.
I received emails containing screenshots and tweets with photos from Google Analytics and Google Webmaster Tools. It was amazing to see, and it confirmed that we had just experienced a Panda update in the middle of a multi-week Penguin rollout. Yes, read that line again. Panda during Penguin, right when the internet world was clearly focused on Penguin 3.0.
That was a sneaky move Google… very sneaky. :)
So, based on what I explained earlier about webmaster confusion and algorithms, can you tell what happened next? Yes, massive confusion ensued. We had the trifecta of algorithm updates with Penguin, Pirate, and now Panda.
Webmaster confusion and a reminder of the algo sandwich from 2012
So, we had a major algorithm update during two other major algorithm updates (Penguin and Pirate) and webmaster confusion was hitting extremely high levels. And I don't blame anyone for being confused. I'm neck deep in this stuff and it confused me at first.
Was the October 24 update a Penguin tremor or was this something else? Could it be Pirate? And if it was indeed Panda, it would have been great if Google told us it was Panda! Or did they want to throw off SEOs analyzing Penguin and Pirate? Does anyone have a padded room I can crawl into?
Once I realized this was Panda, and started to communicate the update via Twitter and my blog, I had a number of people ask me a very important question:
"Glenn, would Google really roll out two or three algorithm updates so close together, or at the same time?"
Why yes, they would. Anyone remember the algorithm sandwich from April of 2012? That's when Google rolled out Panda on April 19, then Penguin 1.0 on April 24, followed by Panda on April 27. Yes, we had three algorithm updates all within ten days. And let's not forget that the Penguin update on April 24, 2012 was the first of its kind! So yes, Google can, and will, roll out multiple major algos around the same time.
Where are we headed? It's fascinating, but not pretty
Panda is near real-time now
When Panda 4.1 rolled out on September 23, 2014, I immediately disliked the title and version number of the update. Danny Sullivan named it 4.1, so it stuck. But for me, that was not 4.1… not even close. It was more like 4.75. You see, there have been a number of Panda tremors and updates since P4.0 on May 20, 2014.
I saw what I was calling "tremors" nearly weekly based on having access to a large amount of Panda data (across sites, categories, and countries). And based on what I was seeing, I reached out to John Mueller at Google to clarify the tremors. John's response was great and confirmed what I was seeing. He explained that there wasnot a set frequency for algorithms like Panda. Google can roll out an algorithm, analyze the SERPs, refine the algo to get the desired results, and keep pushing it out. And that's exactly what I was seeing (again, almost weekly since Panda 4.0).
When Panda and Penguin meet in real time…
…they will have a cup of coffee and laugh at us. :) So, since Panda is near-real time, the crossing of major algorithm updates is going to happen. And we just experienced an important one on October 24 with Penguin, Pirate, and Panda. But it could (and probably will) get more chaotic than what we have now. We are quickly approaching a time where major algorithm updates crafted in a lab will be unleashed on the web in near-real time or in actual real time.
And if organic search traffic from Google is important to you, then pay attention. We're about to take a quick trip into the future of Google and SEO. And after hearing what I have to say, you might just want the past back…
Google's brilliant object-oriented approach to fighting webspam
I have presented at the past two SES conferences about Panda, Penguin, and other miscellaneous disturbances in the force. More about those "other disturbances" soon. In my presentation, one of my slides looks like this:
Over the past several years, Google has been using a brilliant, object-oriented approach to fighting webspam and low quality content. Webspam engineers can craft external algorithms in a lab and then inject them into the real-time algorithm whenever they want. It's brilliant because it isolates specific problems, while also being extremely scalable. And by the way, it should scare the heck out of anyone breaking the rules.
For example, we have Panda, Penguin, Pirate, and Above the Fold. Each was crafted to target a specific problem and can be unleashed on the web whenever Google wants. Sure, there are undoubtedly connections between them (either directly or indirectly), but each specific algo is its own black box. Again, it's object-oriented.
Now, Panda is a great example of an algorithm that has matured to where Google highly trusts it. That's why Google announced in June of 2013 that Panda would roll out monthly, over ten days. And that's also why it matured even more with Panda 4.0 (and why I've seen tremors almost weekly.)
And then we had Gary Illyes explain that Penguin was moving along the same path. At SMX East, Gary explained that the new Penguin algorithm (which clearlydidn't roll out on October 17) would be structured in a way where subsequent updates could be rolled out more easily. You know, like Panda.
And by the way, what if this happens to Pirate, Above the Fold, and other algorithms that Google is crafting in its Frankenstein lab? Well my friends, then we'll have absolute chaos and society as we know it will crumble. OK, that's a bit dramatic, but you get my point.
We already have massive confusion now… and a glimpse into the future reveals a continual flow of major algorithms running in real-time, each that could pummel a site to the ground. And of course, with little or no sign of which algo actually caused the destruction. I don't know about you, but I just broke out in hives. :)
Actual example of what (near) real-time updates can do
After Panda 4.0, I saw some very strange Panda movement for sites impacted by recent updates. And it underscores the power of near-real time algo updates. As a quick example, temporary Panda recoveries can happen if you don't get out of the gray area enough. And now that we are seeing Panda tremors almost weekly, you can experience potential turbulence several times per month.
Here is a screenshot from a site that recovered from Panda, didn't get out of the gray area and reentered the strike zone, just five days later.
Holy cow, that was fast. I hope they didn't plan any expensive trips in the near future. This is exactly what can happen when major algorithms roam the web in real time. One week you're looking good and the next week you're in the dumps. Now, at least I knew this was Panda. The webmaster could tackle more content problems and get out of the gray area… But the ups and downs of a Panda roller coaster ride can drive a webmaster insane. It's one of the reasons I recommend making significant changes when you've been hit by Panda. Get as far out of the gray area as possible.
An "automatic action viewer" in Google Webmaster Tools could help (and it's actually being discussed internally by Google)
Based on webmaster confusion, many have asked Google to create an "automatic action viewer" in Google Webmaster Tools. It would be similar to the "manual actions viewer," but focused on algorithms that are demoting websites in the search results (versus penalties). Yes, there is a difference by the way.
The new viewer would help webmasters better understand the types of problems that are being impacted by algorithms like Panda, Penguin, Pirate, Above the Fold, and others. Needless to say, this would be incredibly helpful to webmasters, business owners, and SEOs.
So, will we see that viewer any time soon? Google's John Mueller addressed this question during the November 3 webmaster hangout (at 38:30).
John explained they are trying to figure something out, but it's not easy. There are so many algorithms running that they don't want to provide feedback that is vague or misleading. But, John did say they are discussing the automatic action viewer internally. So you never know…
A quick note about Matt Cutts
As many of you know, Matt Cutts took an extended leave this past summer (through the end of October). Well, he announced on Halloween that he is extending his leave into 2015. I won't go crazy here talking about his decision overall, but I will focus on how this impacts webmasters as it relates to algorithm updates and webspam.
Matt does a lot more than just announce major algo updates… He actually gets involved when collateral damage rears its ugly head. And there's not a faster way to rectify a flawed algo update than to have Mr. Cutts involved. So before you dismiss Matt's extended leave as uneventful, take a look at the trending below:
Notice the temporary drop off a cliff, then 14 days of hell, only to see that traffic return? That's because Matt got involved. That's the movie blog fiasco from early 2014 that I heavily analyzed. If Matt was not notified of the drop via Twitter, and didn't take action, I'm not sure the movie blogs that got hit would be around today. I told Peter from SlashFilm that his fellow movie blog owners should all pay him a bonus this year. He's the one that pinged Matt via Twitter and got the ball rolling.
It's just one example of how having someone with power out front can nip potential problems in the bud. Sure, the sites experienced two weeks of utter horror, but traffic returned once Google rectified the problem. Now that Matt isn't actively helping or engaged, who will step up and be that guy? Will it be John Mueller, Pierre Far, or someone else? John and Pierre are greatly helpful, but will they go to bat for a niche that just got destroyed? Will they push changes through so sites can turn around? And even at its most basic level, will they even be aware the problem exists?
These are all great questions, and I don't want to bog down this post (it's already incredibly long). But don't laugh off Matt Cutts taking an extended leave. If he's gone for good, you might only realize how important he was to the SEO community after he's gone. And hopefully it's not because your site just tanked as collateral damage during an algorithm update. Matt might be running a marathon or trying on new Halloween costumes. Then where will you be?
Recommendations moving forward:
So where does this leave us? How can you prepare for the approaching storm of crossing algorithms? Below, I have provided several key bullets that I think every webmaster should consider. I recommend taking a hard look at your site now, before major algos are running in near-real time.
Truly understand the weaknesses with your website. Google will continue crafting external algos that can be injected into the real-time algorithm. And they will go real-time at some point. Be ready by cleaning up your site now.
Document all changes and fluctuations the best you can. Use annotations in Google Analytics and keep a spreadsheet updated with detailed information.
Along the same lines, download your Google Webmaster Tools data monthly (at least). After helping many companies with algorithm hits, that information is incredibly valuable, and can help lead you down the right recovery path.
Use a mix of audits and focus groups to truly understand the quality of your site. I mentioned in my post about aggressive advertising and Panda that human focus groups are worth their weight in gold (for surfacing Panda-related problems). Most business owners are too close to their own content and websites to accurately measure quality. Bias can be a nasty problem and can quickly lead to bamboo-overflow on a website.
Beyond on-site analysis, make sure you tackle your link profile as well. I recommend heavily analyzing your inbound links and weeding out unnatural links. And use the disavow tool for links you can't remove. The combination of enhancing the quality of your content, boosting engagement, knocking down usability obstacles, and cleaning up your link profile can help you achieve long-term SEO success. Don't tackle one quarter of your SEO problems. Address all of them.
Remove barriers that inhibit change and action. You need to move fast. You need to be decisive. And you need to remove red tape that can bog down the cycle of getting changes implemented. Don't water down your efforts because there are too many chefs in the kitchen. Understand the changes that need to be implemented, and take action. That's how you win SEO-wise.
Summary: Are you ready for the approaching storm?
SEO is continually moving and evolving, and it's important that webmasters adapt quickly. Over the past few years, Google's brilliant object-oriented approach to fighting webspam and low quality content has yielded algorithms like Panda, Penguin, Pirate, and Above the Fold. And more are on their way. My advice is to get your situation in order now, before crossing algorithms blend a recipe of confusion that make it exponentially harder to identify, and then fix, problems riddling your website.
Now excuse me while I try to build a flux capacitor. :)
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It's been 1 year since our rebrand to White and, to celebrate, we are hosting our annual White Exchange Event at the prestigious Ashmolean Museum in Oxford. This November, digital practitioners from both client and agency side will come together at the renowned museum in Oxford to discuss the concept of "Turning Data into Strategy".
The event will consist of a range of talks from members of the White.net team, industry partners, and independent consultants. There will be plenty of opportunity to network over complimentary lunch and post-conference drinks, as well as exclusive access to the Ashmolean's impressive collection.
"90% of people move between devices to accomplish a goal, whether by smartphones, PCs, tablets or TVs" (Google)
With this in mind, it's vitally important that every business and organisation is able to understand how this data can be translated into actionable intelligence. Here at White we are always looking for new ways to help our clients make the most of the opportunities that digital marketing presents to them.
“I’m really looking forward to taking part in the White Exchange event. It’s always great to be in a room with a group of people who are so knowledgeable on the latest trends in digital advertising.” – Jon Myers, VP & Managing Director EMEA, Marin Software/speaker at White Exchange 2014
At the moment it seems that everyone is talking about data, in all shapes and sizes. However, the reality is that it doesn't matter how much data you can get hold of if you can't translate it into actionable intelligence. So, to try to put some structure to this debate we are pleased to announce that data will be the topic of conversation at this year's White Exchange conference.
Here are some our speakers lined up for White Exchange 2014. Together, they have a combined industry experience of over 60 years!
JON MYERS
VP & Managing Director EMEA, Marin Software
Marin is the leading digital ad management platform. Jon was previously a Director at Yahoo!, MediaVest and Latitude, he also sits on the Global SES Advisory Board.
JONATHAN ALDERSON
Head of Insight, Linkdex
Jono heads up the Insight team at Linkdex, providing a layer of human expertise and consultancy on top of their award-winning platform. He has over a decade of blended experience in digital marketing, working with agencies, startups, household brands and FTSE 100 companies, providing expertise in SEO, analytics, campaign strategy, and web development.
DANIEL BIANCHINI
Director of Services, White.
Daniel is a talented digital marketing professional with a large breadth of experience in e-commerce. Known by his peers as an excellent communicator, he speaks frequently at conferences on topics ranging from technical SEO to content creation. With an analytical mind, Daniel shapes digital campaigns that deliver the best results from SEO and PPC.
JASON DENNY
PPC Consultant, White.
Specialising in PPC & Online Marketing with a proven background in PPC development, Jason is recognised as an authority in the paid and biddable media channels, including Google AdWords, Google Analytics, Facebook, Bing, and Marin Software.
White. are also pleased to announce Geoffrey Roberts as our Keynote Speaker at White Exchange 2014
GEOFFREY ROBERTS
Founder & CEO, Democrata
Geoff Roberts started Democrata in July 2014 providing big data and near/real time analytics services for sectors with legacy operating models. He has worked with large-scale data systems since 2002 and has expertise in digital transformation, product management and big data operations both for B2B & B2C services. His clients included Nokia, Microsoft, Orange, BT, Vodafone and many European ISPs. Services under his management spanned 38 countries including the UK, China, India, Russia, the US and Brazil.
“It’s an honour for us to be associated with this event. I am very much looking forward to participating fully in the White Exchange 2014, meeting new contacts and discussing the future of data. Excellent location too – exclusive use of The Ashmolean Museum, University of Oxford!” – Geoffrey Roberts, Founder & CEO, Democrata / Speaker at White Exchange 2014
White Exchange 2014 is taking place November 24th so be sure to get your ticket registered in time!
For more information and to register your ticket, visit:
Award winning digital marketing agency White has just announced its collaboration with high-end skincare brand Rodial, further establishing itself as an innovative and exciting agency to watch.
Oxford based White has been selected to work alongside Rodial to develop their paid media strategy across its market leading Rodial, Nip+Fab, and Nip+Man ranges, as well as its new and eagerly anticipated make-up line launched this week, which features Daisy Lowe as the face of the range.
Global brand Rodial is a leader in the UK luxury skincare market. Its products, popular amongst A-list celebrities, are created with natural anti-ageing, firming and collagen-boosting ingredients.
The contract win comes after a very successful year for White, in which the company has continued to gain ground in the industry thanks to its work with other high profile clients, including Deloitte and Miele. As White's latest client, Rodial also marks the company's expansion into the beauty sector.
Vivien Man, Digital Marketing Manager at Rodial, revealed why White was chosen as an agency partner: "During our agency selection we were impressed with their level of expertise, attention to detail, creativity, and commitment to clients."
She continued: "Rodial is at an exciting and important stage of growth with lots of new and positive company developments in progress. With our make-up range launched this week, the brand is going from strength to strength and we are happy to welcome White along with us."
Commercial Director at White, Ian Hucklesby added: "Winning the Rodial account is further proof that we are an inspiring, driven digital marketing agency. We greatly look forward to working with the team at Rodial, and providing our expertise in the paid media space."
Eight years ago, I described how city-wide wifi would destroy the business of local radio. Once you have access to a million radio stations online, why would you listen to endless commercials and the top 40?
I realized last week that this has just happened. Not via wifi, but via Bluetooth and the smart phone.
The car-sharing driver (Bluetooth equipped car, with a smart phone, of course) who picked me up the other day was listening to a local radio station. It was almost as if he was smoking a pipe or driving a buggy. With so many podcasts, free downloads and Spotify stations to listen to, why? With traffic, weather and talking maps in your pocket, why wait for the announcer to get around to telling you what you need to know?
The first people to leave the radio audience will be the ones that the advertisers want most. And it will spiral down from there.
Just as newspapers fell off a cliff, radio is about to follow. It's going to happen faster than anyone expects. And of course, it will be replaced by a new thing, a long tail of audio that's similar (but completely different) from what we were looking for from radio all along. And that audience is just waiting for you to create something worth listening to.
A Dutch engineer has created a flying defibrillator for emergency situations. The drone, called the Ambulance Drone, would be stationed at various points in the city. In an emergency, people on the scene can call it in and it arrives a few seconds later. The built-in defibrillator unit can be used by anyone and it allows doctors to monitor the situation after the shocks are administered.
The drone includes a webcam and loudspeaker and allows remote doctors to walk people on the scene through the process of attaching the electrodes and preparing the defibrillator. The creator, Alec Momont of TU Delft's Faculty of Industrial Design Engineering, said that 20% of people can operate a defibrillator without instruction and the number rises when they have prompts from trained personnel.
"Some 800,000 people suffer a cardiac arrest in the EU every year, and only 8% survive," Momont explains. "The main reason for this is the relatively long response time of the emergency services (approx. 10 minutes), while brain death and fatalities occur within 4 to 6 minutes. The ambulance drone can get a defibrillator to a patient inside a 12 km zone within one minute. This response speed increases the chance of survival following a cardiac arrest from 8% to 80%."
Google-owned robotics lab Boston Dynanics has debuted new video of its 6'2″ Atlas robot, also known as "Ian." The hulking mass of metal, which weighs a whopping 330 lbs, has been programmed to recreate a key scene from the 1984 film The Karate Kid.
Ian is part of an ongoing robotics project that seeks to create automatons that can replace humans in hazardous roles like firefighting. Ian has already demonstrated a variety of abilities, including traversing difficult and uneven terrain, carrying objects such as firehoses, and even to get into a car and drive it. It can also use both its hands and feet to climb over the most treacherous obstacles.
Ian's head is made up of two cameras and a laser rangefinder that provide it with the necessary depth perception to accomplish many tasks that most other robots simply wouldn't be able to. It can turn its head to get a better view of its surroundings. It has a total of 28 moveable joints throughout its body.
Atlas Drone Video
As 9-to-5 suggests, turn down your audio for this one. The video sound is more than a bit annoying.
Amazing Technology Pace
Robot technology advances at an amazing pace. It is easy to pooh-pooh this technology as unusable, but it will not be unusable for long.
I believe it's safe to assume that drones, under command from a limited number of humans, will eventually be able to replace a big subset of firefighters.
Russia has agreed to build eight new nuclear reactors in Iran in a deal raising eyebrows in Washington and Europe as fraught international talks to curb Tehran's atomic ambitions near their deadline.
Meeting in Moscow on Tuesday, Iranian and Russian officials said they had negotiated terms for the construction by Russia's state nuclear power company Rosatom of four new reactors at the Islamic republic's existing Russian-built Bushehr facility, and four more at another site in the country.
Russian officials said their eight-plant nuclear deal – the broad terms of which were first laid down in a 1995 agreement – could boost efforts to make Iran's nuclear activities more transparent and would benefit the Vienna discussions.
"The entire construction project of the nuclear power units in Iran, including equipment and nuclear fuel supplies, will be under International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards and fully meet the nuclear non-proliferation regime the same way as during construction of the first power unit of Bushehr," Rosatom said in a statement.
Make-or-Break Moment
Iranian negotiators and counterparts from the P5+1 – the five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany – are set to meet next week in Vienna to begin the final bout of talks aimed at ending crippling international sanctions against the Islamic republic in exchange for permanent limits to its uranium enrichment activities.
Speaking in Berlin, German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier warned that the talks were at a "make-or-break moment," and if no agreement was achievable by the November 24 deadline, it could be at least two years before they could meaningfully resume.
Oversight Not Wanted
More independent oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency should be precisely what everyone wants.
Perhaps Merkel can pound some common sense into Obama's head, but don't count on that. Her judgement has not been all that brilliant lately, to say the least.
Instead, I fully expect McCain will have a hyperventilation attack and Obama will go along with McCain.
This is really not about oversight but rather about total control. The US wants to dictate what every country can or cannot do. It's that simple.
Iran Sanctions Will Break Soon
Should the US scuttle the "make-or-break talks", look for Russia and China to work out more deals to buy Iranian oil.
South Africa, which only went along with sanctions under pressure from Obama, may also throw in the towel. Other countries will follow. One way or another, I expect the sanctions on Iran to break down soon.
Obama has two unpalatable choices at this point.
Option 1: Should the November 24 talks die without agreement, the Obama-inspired sanctions will end in total complete failure, obvious to the entire world.
Option 2: Obama agrees to lift the sanctions, with McCain and the war hawks howling bloody murder.
No Winning Play for Obama
Putin's Iran nuclear reactor deal was announced purposely at this time to make Obama look like a fool. And it worked.
There is no real winning play for Obama at this point. That's something one ought to consider when imposing inane sanctions.
Should sanity prevail and the US lift the sanctions, one needs to stop and ask the questions "What did we get, and was it worth the effort?"
Perhaps the threat of option 1 will save the day, culminating in an Obama "we did it speech" that in reality will be much ado about nothing, and with McCain bellowing like a sick moose for weeks.
That is the very best Obama can get out of this mess now.
What the H should Europe expect when it bows to the inane wishes of Obama and imposes ridiculous sanctions on Russia. Also note that in response to Ukraine, the EU blocked Russia's pipeline proposals to bring more gas to Europe.
What's Putin supposed to do? Kiss Obama's ass?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
The truth on Obamacare is finally out: The bill was purposely written to trick the CBO (congressional Budget Office) into believing the bill was not a tax. Moreover, the bill also depended on the "Stupidity of the American Voter".
Many of us knew that long ago. But those are the words of Jonathan Gruber, a numbers wizard at M.I.T., who was courted by the Obama administration, and paid $400,000 for his efforts to see that the bill made its way through Congressional obstacles.
Gruber: "This bill was written in a tortured way to make sure CBO did not score the mandate as taxes. If CBO [Congressional Budget Office] scored the mandate as taxes, the bill dies. Okay, so it's written to do that. In terms of risk rated subsidies, if you had a law which said that healthy people are going to pay in – you made explicit healthy people pay in and sick people get money, it would not have passed… Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage. And basically, call it the stupidity of the American voter or whatever, but basically that was really really critical for the thing to pass....Look, I wish Mark was right that we could make it all transparent, but I'd rather have this law than not."
Reason says (and I wholeheartedly agree) ...
Gruber thinks it's acceptable to deceive people if he believes that's the only way to achieve his policy preference. That's not exactly surprising, given that he failed to disclose payments from the administration to consult on Obamacare even while providing the media with supposedly independent assessments of the law.
But it's particularly revealing in light of Gruber's recently discovered comments regarding the way the law's subsidies for health insurance are supposed to work. In a 2012 video unearthed this summer, Gruber said explicitly that the tax credits to offset coverage costs were conditioned on state participation in the law's exchanges—a contention that the administration denies, and is at the heart of a legal challenge on its way to the Supreme Court.
Tax Credit Legal Challenge
Jumping to the above 2012 video link we find Gruber arguing out of both sides of his mouth in regards to tax credits. Each side taking the opposite side of the other.
Gruber: "What's important to remember politically about this is if you're a state and you don't set up an exchange, that means your citizens don't get their tax credits—but your citizens still pay the taxes that support this bill. So you're essentially saying [to] your citizens you're going to pay all the taxes to help all the other states in the country. I hope that that's a blatant enough political reality that states will get their act together and realize there are billions of dollars at stake here in setting up these exchanges. But, you know, once again the politics can get ugly around this."
Reason: "What he says is exactly what challengers to the administration's implementation of the law have been arguing—that if a state chooses not to establish its own exchange, then residents of those states will not be able to access Obamacare's health insurance tax credits. ... In early 2013, Gruber told the liberal magazine Mother Jones that the theory advanced by the challengers in this case was 'nutty.' Gruber also signed an amicus brief in defense of the administration and the IRS rule. But judging by the video it is quite clear that in 2012 he accepted the essence of the interpretation advanced by the challengers."
Here's the video, which according to YouTube's date stamp was uploaded by Noblis on January 20, 2012. The relevant passage starts around minute 31.
And so here we are, stuck in a system designed by Gruber and implemented first by Mitt Romney, then by President Obama.
To get Obamacare through Congress was a chore. It depended on the "Stupidity of the American Voter", says Gruber in those exact words.
Whom do we "thank" most? Gruber, Romney, Obama, or the stupid American public?
Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
arin is the leading digital ad management platform. Jon was previously a Director at Yahoo!, MediaVest and Latitude, he also sits on the Global SES Advisory Board.
ward winning digital marketing agency White has just announced its collaboration with high-end skincare brand Rodial, further establishing itself as an innovative and exciting agency to watch.
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