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[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
We care a lot about finding people who are brilliant, who get things done, who make a difference. We care a lot about finding a playwright with talent, a surgeon who can cure us, a programmer who can get the thing to work.
Along the way, many of the linchpins who are able to do work like this develop affectations, quirks and even obnoxious qualities. They might demand an over-equipped dressing room or a private jet or merely be a jerk in meetings (or show up late, which is almost as bad).
We often put up with this, because, after all, they're superstars, right?
Somewhere along the way, we confused the signals with the work. Now there are people who start with the bad behavior and the affectations, hoping that it will be seen as a sign of insight and talent. And they often get away with it. "Who's that?" we wonder... "I don't know, but they must be good at what they do, because why else would we put up with them?" It's a great plan when it works, but I don't think it's a strategy to be counted on.
The key to getting a reputation for being brilliant is actually being brilliant, not just acting like you are.
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Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis |
Interactive Map of Global Debt Posted: 14 Nov 2010 04:06 PM PST The Economist has an interesting Global Debt Clock that inquiring minds may be interested in. From The Economist ... The clock is ticking. Every second, it seems, someone in the world takes on more debt. The idea of a debt clock for an individual nation is familiar to anyone who has been to Times Square in New York, where the American public shortfall is revealed. Our clock shows the global figure for all (or almost all) government debts in dollar terms.Debt Comparison The map consists of government debt, not all debt. It does not include future liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare. Note that by this comparison Japan is the mother of all basket cases and Australia is better than all of the above. Addendum: Jose writes ... I am confused with the Global Debt Clock, as reflected on your article from The Economist. I have copy of an article from The Washington Post, dated several months ago, reflecting Government debt in percentage of nominal gross domestic product. The table was reproduced from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the comparison is as follows:The US at 84% is what I remember as well. Note that only the US is far different in that table. If 84%+- is accurate, this Canada and the US are approximately equal in percentage terms. I will see if I can get an answer from the Economist. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Portugal Foreign Affairs Minister Threatens "Euro Zone Exit" Posted: 14 Nov 2010 01:46 PM PST The simmering stew in the Eurozone took another turn for the worse as Portugal discusses a scenario in which it will abandon the Euro. The Wall Street Journal reports Portugal Foreign Minister Warns of Euro Exit A Portuguese government minister openly speculated over the weekend that his country's economic frailties could lead to its expulsion from the euro zone, underscoring the growing fear in Europe that the continent's debt woes may force leaders to restructure the currency bloc.Portuguese Bluff? In spite of the inclusion of Portugal as the "P" in "PIIGS" (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), the article makes a case that Portugal is not in any real trouble with property bubbles, excessive Debt-to-GDP, or unemployment. Portugal did have weak growth for a decade, however, it managed to avoid the massive problems that befell Ireland, Greece, and Spain. I suspect this threat is a bluff, but if so, it's a poorly-timed maneuver that is certain to heighten tensions in the Eurozone. Even if higher ranking officials attempt to downplay the Foreign Affairs Minister's statements (something I quickly expect), the uncertainly may cause lasting damage. Deep Denial in Eurozone Note that Greece is still in massive denial about its recovery plans. See International "Extend-and-Pretend" - Greece Needs IMF Extension for renewed concerns about Greece. In the European bond market meltdown, the ECB is Buyer of Only Resort for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. As noted above, that has Portugal fuming. Ireland is in a bigger mess than Greece and Portugal, but Ireland does have an offer of "help" from the IMF. Meanwhile I ask (and answer) the question Can the IMF "Help" Anyone? The answer might be different than you think. Give it a look if you have not yet done so. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 14 Nov 2010 10:47 AM PST Everyone loves a party and Australia threw one of the biggest parties in history. Australia's wholesale liqueur central distributor (widely known as the "RBA") should have taken away the punch long ago, but as in the US (and everywhere else), the central distributor as well as government officials and street vendors, all love a party, and what a long street party it was! After years of partying, party goers got more than a bit tipsy, especially after government officials spiked the punch hoping to keep the street party going perpetually. Out of fear of being blamed for a massive hangover, the central distributor hiked the price of punch repeatedly hoping for a quiet end to the party. However, the central distributor's rate hike message was ignored for over a year, primarily because the punch distributor kept insisting "there is no bubble in partying". New party goers heard the message and came rushing in chanting the slogan "better party before it's too late". Various media outlets and party sponsors mocked one "keen" non-party goer who was too busy mountain climbing to party. Everyone else was cheering the party that had "too many fundamentals to ever end" Meanwhile, the group of bar owners and bartenders known as the "Big Four" were forced to pass along the central distributor's price hikes. Nonetheless, the masses kept drinking and partying. It was quite the spike government officials threw into the punch! In an act of desperation, the "Big Four" bar owners finally raised prices even more than the wholesale liqueur distributor. They did this after becoming worried about the consequences of drunks passing out on the floor, in the street, and in the outback, unable to pay their "bar tabs". Note that bar tab paying is the only real concern of the bar owners, not the mess in the streets or the outback. Unfortunately, the actions of the distributor and the bar owners came far too late for a quiet end to the party. After singing the wildly popular hit tune "It's Different Here" at the top of their lungs more times than there are kangaroos in the outback, the party goers finally passed out in the streets and the outback in drunken stupor. "It's Different Here" was written by the vocal group R.E. Agents. Historians will note that exhaustion from drinking, singing, and spending money they did not have ultimately did the party goers in, not excessive price hikes as currently reported in the media and by the government sponsors of the street party, all hoping to place the blame elsewhere. In the wake of a massive hangover, a group of party goers aptly named the Green Party, as well as various government officials and local businesses are hoping to revive the street party, as is the vocal rock band R.E. Agents, hoping to capitalize on another party tune. Unfortunately, the "Pool of Greater Partyers" has simply dried up. Everyone is passed out on the floor, deep in debt, voices shot, and in general too pooped and too broke to party. Australia is in effect "partied out". A Recap of Australia's Now Imploding Housing Bubble It certainly took longer than I expected but signs suggest the Australia housing boom is finally over. The bubble will take years to unwind. Housing busts always begin with a surge in inventory and a dearth of buyers. Then comes falling prices, denial, and government efforts to re-blow the bubble. Let's start with a look at inventory. SmartCompany reports Property market hit by flood of new listings Residential property listings increased in all cities during October with the market now flooded with more properties than during 2008, one expert has warned.Bargains?! Christopher has the current direction correct but he is is sadly mistaken about bargains. It will take many years before prices get back to normal and far longer for there to be any bargains. Luxury Home Auctions Hit By Prices Bloomberg reports Sydney Opera House Luxury-Home Auction Hit by Rates A luxury home auction at the Sydney Opera House yesterday managed to sell only two of the 11 Australian homes on offer as the most aggressive round of interest rate increases by a Group of 20 member saps demand.Westpac, NAB complete rate rise quartet Bloomberg reports Westpac, NAB complete rate rise quartet Westpac has joined the other three major banks in raising mortgage rates more than the Reserve Bank with a 35-basis-point increase.Australia Building Industry Flounders The CourrierMail reports Housing loan interest rate rises dash any hope of a housing recovery in Queensland. A BOUNCE-BACK in the Queensland housing industry is unlikely any time soon with the latest figures showing another drop in housing finance figures.Bouncebacks? Cheaper Loans? Talk of bouncebacks 3 months into a housing implosion 3 years long overdue is complete silliness. Trapped buyers are going to be astounded at how fast prices drop one the implosion picks up steam. That buyers are flooding the banks already hoping to refinance is a sign that many are in serious trouble. Nonetheless, the story gets even sillier. Green Party Wants Laws to Limit Rate Hikes Most mortgages in Australia are adjustable. A series a rate hikes has the green party howling. Bloomberg reports Australia's Greens Plan Laws to Control Bank Rates Westpac Banking Corp. and its closest competitors in Australia would face restraints on increasing mortgage interest rates under legislation planned by the Greens Party.Justification? Of Course There's Justification Banks are obviously scared s*less about the impending implosion. That is the justification. Of course everyone involved should have thought about this a year ago, two years ago, and three years ago. There was ample warning from the US. Now The Consequences The Sydney Morning Herald reports Business conditions drop as retail flounders Business conditions dropped to their lowest level in more than a year in October, suggesting Australia's economic activity is faltering.Nascent Recovery Over The nascent recovery is over. The implosion has begun. But some still have not gotten the message. Australia Property Bull Offers Jeremy Grantham $100m Housing bet The Australian reports Joye offers US guru $100m housing bet HRISTOPHER Joye, an Australian property market bull, yesterday offered US guru Jeremy Grantham a $100 million bet on house prices.I hope Grantham takes the bet. Not that Grantham needs the money, but clearly Joye has too much and is offering to give $100 million of it away. Punch-Free Party Addendum: Steve Keen just pinged me with this real-time comment "Loved the outback imagery mate! I did laugh out loud a couple of times. And actually this keen hiker had his own punch-free party on the walk to Kosciuszko. Much more fun than the property bulls shindig." Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Sunday Funnies 2010-11-07 Agreement to Agree; Just Say Shazam! Posted: 14 Nov 2010 01:57 AM PST In tribute to the G20 "Agreement to Postpone Agreement" ... When All Else Fails Just Say Shazam! Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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[You're getting this note because you subscribed to Seth Godin's blog.]
The term 'crunchy granola' has been shortened to crunchy, a term used to describe people who willingly alter their lifestyle to make less of an impact on the environment. It's crunchy to give up your car for a bike, or to use mesh companies or to become vegan.
I wonder what happens if we broaden the term to describe someone who changes their lifestyle for a job or a brand or a passion? "Eric is getting really crunchy about his job at Microsoft... he even gave up his iPad." Or perhaps, "Cheryl is crunchy about Vuitton... it's all she wears."
Does success for you depend on creating crunchiness among your customers and fans?
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IMF Ready to "Help" Ireland; Can the IMF "Help" Anyone? Posted: 13 Nov 2010 05:08 PM PST The IMF is ready, willing, and able to "Help" Ireland according Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the IMF Managing Director. Please consider Strauss-Kahn Says IMF Can Help Ireland's 'Difficult' Situation The International Monetary Fund stands ready to help Ireland if needed, its managing director said, as market concern about the country's debt crisis continues.Can the IMF "Help" Anyone? Inquiring minds are asking "Can the IMF Help Anyone?" That's a good question. Mish readers may be shocked by my answer: "Yes It Can!" The irony is no country in its right mind should ever accept "help" from the IMF. This apparent paradox can be explained by the fact that "help" from the IMF is akin to tossing an anchor to a struggling swimmer. Help does not go to the country accepting the offer of help. Rather "help" goes to the creditor nations who would otherwise bear the risk of a default by the debtors. In this case, the IMF will not help Ireland. Instead, the IMF would screw the citizens of Ireland while bailing out the bondholders. Who are those bondholders? The answer of course is banks in Britain, Germany, the United States and France. Irish banks, bonds hit as EU eyes survival plan Please consider Irish banks, bonds hit as EU eyes survival plan Shares in Ireland's banks hit record lows and national borrowing costs reached new euro-era highs Monday as the government presented its latest plans for financial survival to the European Union's economic commissioner, who has the power to order changes.Reject Phony Offer of Help Irish voters, if they have a chance, should reject this phony offer of "help" from the IMF, the EU or whoever. Merkel has it ALMOST correct when she said "any future EU bailouts to come with new rules requiring bondholders to absorb some losses." I say "almost" because the future is now. In addition, I say "almost" because "some of the losses" is inadequate. Bondholders should suffer losses down to the last penny. If they are wiped out, so be it. The citizens of Ireland should not be responsible for those losses. In short, they should tell the IMF to "Go to Hell". The simple way to do that is default. To get its economy functioning again, Ireland will still need austerity measures, public sector reforms, bank reforms and other initiatives, but it certainly does not need any anchors from the IMF. Ireland has enough problems already. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
International "Extend-and-Pretend" - Greece Needs IMF Extension Posted: 13 Nov 2010 04:40 PM PST The highly popular game of extend-and-pretend took another step forward in the international arena today as noted by Greek loan repayment extension on the table Greece's prime minister said in an interview that the possibility of extending repayment of its EU/IMF loan was on the table, but an ECB policymaker said any talk of renegotiation could harm the country's credibility.If 2014-2015 is not the target date, pray tell what is? Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
Posted: 13 Nov 2010 09:19 AM PST Here is an entertaining video that helps explain what Quantitative Easing is, and who in general benefits from it. I especially like the part about Bernanke being so dumb as to want to raise prices in a recession. Mike "Mish" Shedlock http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com Click Here To Scroll Thru My Recent Post List Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com/account_management.html to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific. |
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